THE CURRENT VIET MINH OFFENSIVE IN LAOS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000200080006-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 6, 2003
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: December 29, 1953
• Content Type: BRIEF

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29 December 1953
THE CURRENT VIET MINH
OFFENSIVE IN LAOS
I Viet Minh forces involved in present
offensive in central Laos believed
to total about 9 battalions or 7,200 men.
A. These forces consist mainly of
six battalions of 325th Division,
regarded as a second line unit and
always based in the Vinh area of
northern Annam rather than Tonkin.
B. They also include one regiment from
first line 304th Division, the
bulk of which is located to west
of delta perimeter in Tonkin.
C. This regiment of the 304th Division
probably serves as the spine of
the present attacking units.
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II The Viet Minh reached Thakhek, on
the Mekong'River, on 26 December,
after three French companies evacuated
that post.
A. Only one of these three reportedly
reached Savannakhet, 50 miles
southward.
B. French had by that time grouped
about eight battalions (over 6,000
men) at Savannakhet.
III Possible new Viet Minh moves in central
Laos.
A. They may try to remain in Thakhek
region, astride French road and
water communications along Mekong
River valley, which supplied 20
percent of French needs in northern
Laos.
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B. They have been reported probing
southward, but French garrison at
Skvannakhet should be able to hold
off a strike there.
C. They could also advance up Mekong
to attack capital at Vientiane,
but probably without success unless
together with much larger Viet
Minh assault on Laos from north.
IV General Navarre has acted swiftly to
counter enemy thrust in central Laos.
A. He has been flying five battalions
of paratroops to Seno airfield
near Savannakhet to reinforce
the eight battalions already there.
B. He plans a?counterattack to retake
Thakhek. French scouting units have
already penetrated the town.
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C. He is not worried by the Viet
Minh incursion which he believes
diversionary but says it might
throw his offensive plans a
trifle off schedule.
D. He has also started action south-
east of Hanoi to forestall Viet
Minh operations in that area.
V The major Viet Minh military threat
is still posed by four enemy divisions
located in Tonkin.
A.? All or part of these could quickly
move into northern Laos and
eventually overrun large parts
of this area.
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B. They could also be employed to
consolidate the enemy hold on
northwest Tonkin, or to attack
the delta where French reserves
have been reduced to 27 battalions.
(These are being further reduced
by the transfer of five battalions
to Savannakhet.)
C. French believe Viet Minh are
preparing a major assault on Dien
Bien Phu in northwest Tonkin.
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VI French counter movements to reinforce
threatened posts can be made only by
depleting their delta reserves or their
forces in south Vietnam.
A. They have already weakened delta
strength by transfer of 12 battalions
to Dien Bien Phu.
B. This move,in effect, more than
nullified the increase in strength
of nine battalions which arrived from
France last fall.
C. French forces in south Vietnam,
numbering 171,500, cannot be
removed without a resurgence of
activity by 40,000 enemy troops
there.
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VII The immediate political advantages of
the Viet Minh attack on Laos seem
greater than the military.
A. Of the military advantage the
dispersion of French forces and
severing of Mekong communications
seem the most important.
B. Viet Minh penetration of Laos gains
it considerable prestige in the
eyes of Indochinese peoples on both
sides of conflict.
C. This political gain enhances Viet
Minh morale and lessens Vietnamese
support of the French war effort.
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VIII A major Viet Minh campaign now may be
connected with Ho Chi Minh's recent
peace feeler.
A. Such military, pressure might be
designed to force France to negotiate
and simultaneously put Viet Minh in
better position for negotiations.
B. Thus, Ho Chi Minh's call on 27 December
"to destroy the enemy" does not
necessarily mean he won't negotiate.
C. It was quite possibly intended to
underscore to the French and
Vietnamese peoples the desirability.
of peace.
D. It may be forerunner of a heavy
attack in Tonkin or northern Laos
to push Paris and Saigon further
toward negotiations.
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IX Prime Minister of Laos has appealed
to free world for support in resisting
aggression.
A. Laotian government, as well as
Thailand, was prepared to appeal
the Viet Minh's invasion of last
spring to the UN.
B. But objections by the French fore-
stalled such action. French embassy
Washington has just stated Paris
continues to oppose appeal either
by itself or any other country.
C. French objections to a UN appeal
are strongly resented by Laotians
and could embitter the relations
of the two countries.
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D. Already Laotian foreign minister
reportedly has resigned at French
failure keep him informed of
situation in central Laos.
X Viet Minh forces have made no attempt
to enter Thailand and there is no
indication they will.
A. The Thais appear capable of
defending themselves.
B. They have 15,000 heavily armed
police and over 12,000 army troops
in the nine border provinces.
C. These backed by airforce, including
125 fighters and bombers, with a
fair efficiency.
D. Reinforcements of one battalion
of infantry and two armored companies
been sent to the Laotian border.
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XI State of emergency declared by Bangkok
was a precautionary measure to screen
refugees crossing the Mekong.
A. Thai government sensitive over
this problem as there are 50,000
Vietnamese within its border.
1. These have strong sympathies
with Viet Minh and facilitate
Communist subversive activity.
XII Simultaneous with the Viet Minh advance
last week Moscow radio attacked
Thailand as a base for American supplies
to Indochina. Chinese Communist'radio
has now followed with similar charges.
A. ZTothifg new in these charges, which
probably intended to disrupt Thailand's
close cooperation with US.
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B. During Viet Minh invasion of Laos
last spring, Thailand permitted
limited French supplies through its
territory.
XIII Threat from Communist China always hangs
over Indochina.
A. In four South China provinces
contiguous to Indochina there are
150,000 to 220,000 troops.
B. 60,000 more are on Hainan Island.
C. Troop strength in South China has
not changed appreciably since
Korean truce.
D. About 50,000 are stationed along
the Indochina border and could be
committed immediately.
E. Chinese are judged capable of
committing and supporting at least
150,000 troops.
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XIV Chinese Communist air capabilities.
A. There is an under-strength Chinese
Communist air division in Kwangsi
Province; it may be training Viet
Minh airmen.
B. There is a combat-seasoned MIG-15
jet fighter division at Canton.
1. It could operate from South
China coast between Canton and
Indochina.
In South China there are three air-
fields capable of sustaining jet
operations, six potentially capable,
and seven serviceable for light
propeller-driven aircraft.
D. If Chinese renovate bases nearer
Indochina, they can commit 250 to
300 fighters and bombers, including
jets.
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XV No evidence of Chinese Communist
military preparations for large-scale
intervention in Indochina at this
time.
A. American spokesmen have warned
that such intervention might have
"grave consequences."
B. Peiping seems disinclined to in-
volve itself in another Korean-
type venture.
1. It probably fears retaliation
against the China mainland.
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