ITALIAN ESTIMATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01443R000200080003-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 1998
• Sequence Number: 3
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 20001- DP80R01443R000200080003-0
00
1. The Pella government, which was de-
signed to serve only as a "caretaker" govern- -
ment, will almost certainly do4**poe soon
over Trieste or, more likely, over domestic
issues.
2. A series of cabinet crises in Italy
is likely because no stable governmental
majority can be formed.
3. The most likely governments of the
future appear to be those formed by the
Christian Democrats and tolerated by the
Monarchists. The general trend will be to-
ward more rightist governments.
4. The Communists and their allies, the
Nenni Socialists, together received about
35 percent of the June 1953 vote and control
about 37 percent of the seats in the Chamber.
The Communists control the largest and most
powerful trade union federation.
Approved For Release - DP80RO 4 8000200080003-0
 Approved For Release 2000/08T30R(IA-RDP80RO1443R000200080003-0
,
5. The popular strength of the Com-
munists and the Nenni Socialists will prob-
ably increase in the absence of further
progress toward resolving Italy's basic
domestic problems, but we do not believe
that the Communists could be voted into
power by new elections.
6. We consider very unlikely the forma-
tion of a coalition government of the Chris-
tian Democrats, the Nenni Socialists, and
the minor democratic parties.
7. We believe that the Italian Public
Security and military forces are capable of
preventing the Communists from seizing
power by force. In e~iscvuw~wtq 1Z c~ke!shood of an
Co~nwtige.iSQ u~e'do tito~vwt, ~e
ear%Y .cceSsLo, by MI
w~de~~~aR Sc)c av icy sit uation in Italy,
The disintegration of the center and the
deterioration of the Italian economic situa-
tion may go so far as to endanger the exist-
ence of democratic institutions.
Approved For Release 2000/0 t.SAT; RDP80RO~Ih SPt000200080003-0
 Approved For Release 2000/0$11`1 'RDP80RO1443R000200080003-0
9. We believe that, if Italy were
imminently threatened by a. Communist take-
over, the anti-Communists, relying on
outside assistance, would probably be willing
and able to use force to suppress the ex-
treme left. Such a development would probz+'_'_,a
ably require the establishment of a quasi-
authoritarian regime.
- 3 - Italy
Approved For Release 2000/OSSWGR RDP80RO1443R000200080003-0