PLANNING STUDY FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SOME LIKELY KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS FOR THE 1980'S

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01048A000400100003-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 6, 2005
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: June 1, 1974
• Content Type: STUDY

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Secret
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PLANNING STUDY FOR
RESEARCH AND. DEVELOPMENT
Some Likely Key Intelligence Questions
for the 1980's
Secret
RDP 1
1 June 1974
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SOME LIKELY KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS
FOR THE 1980's
Planning Study for Research and Development
Office of Research and Development
July 1974
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And now, I said, let me show in a figure how far our na-
ture is enlightened or unenlightened:-Behold! human
beings living in an underground cave, which has a mouth
open towards the light and reaching all along the cave; here
they have been from their childhood, and have their legs
and necks chained so that they cannot move, and can only
see before them, being prevented by the chains from turn-
ing round their heads. Above and behind them a fire is
blazing at a distance, and between the fire and the pris-
oners there is a raised way; and you will see, if you look,
a low wall built along the way, like the screen which
marionette players have in front of them, over which they
show the puppets.
I see.
And do you see, I said, men passing along the wall carry-
ing all sorts of vessels, and statues and figures of animals
made of wood and stone and various materials, which
appear over the wall? . . .
You have shown me a strange image, and they are
strange prisoners.
Like ourselves, I replied; and they see only their own
shadows, or the other shadows which the fire throws on
the opposite wall of the cave?
True, he said; how could they see anything but the
shadows if they were never allowed to move their heads?
And of the objects which are being carried in like
manner they would only see the shadows?
Yes, he said.
To them, I said, the truth would be literally nothing but
the shadows of the images.
PLATO, Republic, Book VII
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
SUMMARY ..................................... ........ ..... .. .. 1
INTRODUCTION ...................................... ............. 5
SCENARIO FOR THE 1980's ............................ 7
Socioeconomic Trends ............................... ...... ..... 7
Population ................................................... 7
Climatology .................................................. S
Food ........................................................ 8
Energy and Minerals .......................................... S
Multinational Corporations .................................... 8
Sociopolitical Trends .............................................. 9
Japan ....................................................... 9
Brazil .................................................... 9
China ....................................................... 10
Countercultures vs. Counterreformation ......................... 10
Terrorism .................................................... 10
Technological Trends ............................................. 11
Nuclear Proliferation .......................................... 11
Strategic Weapons ............................................ 11
Control of Environment ....................................... 11
Technological Crisis .......................................... 11
1980 "Descriptors" ................................................ 12
THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY OF THE 1980's .................. 13
THREATS FOR THE 1980's ........................................... 15
Socioeconomic Threats and Questions .............................. 15
Global Food Shortages ........................................ 15
Inflation, Foreign Trade, and National Power .................... 15
Worsening Energy Crisis ...................................... 16
Multinational Corporations .................................... 17
Sociopolitical Threats and Questions ................................ 17
Social Change and Prediction of Conflicts ........................ 17
Control of the Sea Beds .... ..................... :............ . 18
Global Communications ....................................... 18
19
Biological and Behavioral Innovations for the 1980's .............. 19
Technological Threats and Questions ............................... 20
Advancement of Soviet Technology ............................. 20
20
21
21
Some Possible Surprises ............................... ........... 22
Exploding Internationalism .................................... 22
Emergence of an International Technocracy ..................... 22
BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................... 25
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SOME LIKELY KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS
FOR THE 1980's
The purpose of this study is to provide a broad conceptual basis to support
ORD's technical Divisions in formulating research and exploratory development
programs to meet future intelligence requirements. The Summary highlights
some possible threats to the national security and some relevant crucial questions.
Critical shortages of natural resources will result in world-wide economic
struggle. Of greatest concern are anticipated global food shortages and great
famines. In the absence of food, human migrations from submarginal to marginal
lands may result.
? What countries will have drought and famine?
? What migrations, invasions, and conflicts will result?
New political alliances will emerge based on resource technology amalgam-
ations. These alliances will spur the growth of underdeveloped, resource-rich
countries while providing needed metals and minerals to industrialized nations.
? Will current inflation, exploding world monetary crisis
resulting from the Arab oil embargo, and the "war of
nerves" involving Israel and the Arabs, the U.S. and
West Europe, China and the U.S.S.R. result in competi-
tion for resources and critical shortages?
? What will be the structure of foreign trade during the
next decade?
What is the role of intelligence in the event of severe
international commercial and industrial depression?
Multinational corporations (MNC's) will become increasingly important
as the volume of trade expands in the natural resource markets of the world.
In order to reduce the conflicts their policies may generate between governments
of developed and developing nations, the MNC's may evolve new ways of op-
erating that will create less conflict and give them greater acceptance throughout
the world.
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The violence, conflict, and social change of the 1980's may be between
societies as well as within them. The most important concern for the leaders of
these societies is to search out ways to prevent the occurrence of these troubles
or to conquer those that occur.
What methods can be used to assimilate all the informa-
tion that the Community collects in order to advise dc-
cisionmakers of the important trends and prospects?
The decreasing intervals between discovery and application in the physical
sciences are increasing the rate of technological change. Vast innovations will
impact on communications, transport, and automation of industrial production.
This will cause growth of technocratic controls.
? What are the prospects for future gaps in technologies
that favor the U.S.S.R. or other industrial nations over
the U.S.?
? How can comparisons be made at the level of indus-
trial technology, the level of engineering development,
and the future level of technology?
New weapons capabilities including some surprises are expected to emerge
from Soviet and Chinese R&D programs. Revolutionary developments in missile
and space offense and defense weapons will require major revisions of concepts
that underlie current strategic arms agreements. Arms limitation agreements will
be expanded, but membership in the -nuclear weapons community will also
increase.
? What countermeasures can be anticipated against U.S.
submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM's)?
? What are the vulnerabilities of advanced global com-
mand and control systems to disruption by obstructive
or destructive actions?
? What countries
I lare likely to
produce nuclear weapons? How can these activities be
monitored?
A technological revolution is opening up the ocean beds. Exploitation of
their mineral and biological resources is accelerating. The oceans will be sub-
jected to ever increasing exclusive and competing national controls. Rival states
or groups of states will divide widening portions of the ocean beds.
? What military and economic controls will be essential to
constructive, international cooperation and the pre-
vention of disastrous conflicts?
? What capabilities for underwater monitoring and search
will be required to control and regulate international
agreements concerning the sea beds?
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One of the principal difficulties with future intelligence questions is that
their credibility rests merely on outward grounds. Errors and uncertain ties are
surely inherent in our judgments about the future. Nevertheless, we must attempt
to project the future in order that we can identify some possible important
questions. Next, we must strive to escape the bounds of tradition and make the
R&D programs of today relevant to the intelligence needs of tomorrow.
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The mission of the Office of Research and Development is oriented towards
future intelligence problems. For this reason, it is essential to identify capabilities
needed for the future so that the programs planned by the Office of Research
and Development are relevant to the future needs of the Intelligence Community.
The approach employed in undertaking the study was to project a synoptic
view of the world in the 1980's, to identify some consequent threats to the national
security, and to postulate some relevant intelligence questions. The capabilities
of the Intelligence Community in the 1980's were also conjectured.
There is more to be done. The ultimate objective is to identify research and
development needs. This requires an assessment of the essential intelligence
capability and a projection of trends in intelligence analysis methodologies, and
intelligence collection technologies. Endeavors toward this objective will require
active participation of all of the Divisions of the Office of Research and
Development.
This study is an attempt to anticipate future intelligence questions. Its
shortcomings are primarily due to failures of imagination or nerve concerning
the future of the world. For this reason, it is likely that our questions are generally
conservative. Some spectacular events that will result from the abstrusely inter-
related streams of economic, political, scientific, and technological developments
have probably not been anticipated.
While we all recognize that the future is unpredictable, we expect that this
effort will provide a few new and interesting questions. Perhaps the most im-
portant question relevant to the future is one asked by Werner Heisenberg about
science-"To what extent are we bound by tradition in the, selection of our
problems?".
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SCENARIO FOR THE 1980's
Many of the current key intelligence questions
are general and can reasonably be expected to per-
sist into the 1980's. However, their structure and
priorities can be expected to undergo drastic modi-
fication. Therefore, the perennial concerns which
spur today's intelligence activities do not provide
sufficient guidance for developing exploratory re-
search in anticipation of world conditions beyond
1980.
Higher priorities have been assigned to economic
intelligence. These higher priorities evidence a nas-
cent concern over increasing economic competition
between the U.S. and its allies or trading partners
as well as with potential adversaries. These concerns
focus on economic policies, motivations, activities,
capabilities, and vulnerabilities in an era of increas-
ing competition for scarce resources.
The projections of Forrester 1 and Meadows
depict world population growth for about 50 years
and the continuing depletion of natural resources.
The details of these projections are certainly not
1 Forrester, Jay W. World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press,
Cambridge, Mass., 1971.
'Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, J. Rander, and W. W.
Behrens III. The Limits to Growth, Universe Books, N.Y.,
1972.
exact. Nevertheless, natural resources are being
depleted at rates which cannot be sustained. Wors-
ening global weather conditions are expected to
accelerate increasing food shortages. Corrective ac-
tions will be needed to modify these trends in order
to avoid catastrophic consequences.
Population
The number of people in Africa, Asia, Latin
America, and Oceania could double by the year 2000
to some five billion people. The combined popula-
tion of North America, U.S.S.R. and Europe could
double to about two billion people by the year 2050.
These predictions are based on the presumption that
current average doubling times will be maintained.
Table I shows that the less developed. areas now
contain nearly four times as many countries and
Number of
Areas Countries
Estimated Pop. .
Mid-1970
(Billions)
Number of Years
To Double
Population
Latin America ..................
27
0.28
24
Africa .........................
47
0.34
27
Asia ............................
35
2.06
31
Oceania ........................
2
0.02
35
Sub Total ....................
111
2.70
North America ..................
2
0.23
63
U.S.S.R . ........... .....
1
0.34
70
Europe ........................
27
0.44
80
Sub Total ....................
30
*Table I was prepared using data from World Facts and Trends by John McHale, p. 37,
Collier Books, N.Y., N.Y., 1972
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more than two and a half times as many people
than the developed areas. The median time for the
population of the less developed countries to double
is currently less than a generation (30 years). For
example, in one generation the population of Asia
alone is projected to be four billion people which
is more than all of present clay humanity.
The highest population growth rates occur in
those regions with the lowest per capita food pro-
duction. Food production may have to double in the
next generation in order to maintain present diet
levels.
Climatology
A major weather change is on the way. A de-
clining trend in the mean northern hemispheric
temperature is apparent. This will increase the
severity of winter temperature in northern latitudes
and decrease the availability of rainfall in the horse
latitudes. The result will be a decreasing trend in
the world food supply. A continuation of this trend
will have a destabilizing effort on most of the rich
nations and many of the poor nations of the world.
Food
The availability and distribution of food will be a
major source of tension by and during the 1980's.
A predicted drop in the average temperature, local
droughts, and a shortage of fertilizer will result in
a severe world-wide food shortage. Shortages of
grains and other staple farm products will induce
mass migrations and conflicts over arable lands.
A race for exploitation of the oceans for food could
result in uncontrolled competition or forced com-
promises that will reduce the potential yield of this
important food source during the time of most
critical shortage. These situations will aggravate
disagreements between rich and poor nations as the
competition for scarce resources intensifies.
Energy and Minerals
Countries depending on resource imports will
lose economic bargaining power to energy and min-
eral exporting countries. This could be accom-
panied by a corresponding shift in the base of mili-
tary strength if international resource flows are
interrupted. The vulnerabilities of these supply
lines as political hostages, especially under major
power sponsorship, is a viable threat. National econ-
omies will be affected in importing countries that
cannot finance the costs of imported resources.
The Soviet Union and China will continue to be
self-sufficient in energy assuming exploitation of
potential oil and gas reserves. Through 1980, West-
ern Europe will be at least 85 percent dependent
on the Middle East and North Africa. Japan will be
almost totally dependent on external energy sources.
The U.S. will probably be able to supply a substan-
tial amount of its own needs during this period,
but it will continue to be vulnerable to disruption
of external supplies and ill-equipped to supply
Western Europe and Japan in the event of emer-
gency.
The future picture in terms of scarce minerals
is similar. The current petroleum situation has
demonstrated that natural source shortages have the
potential for creating massive economic dislocation.
The impact of shifting wealth will become intol-
erable to the world financial community well in
advance of 1980. It is unimaginable that the world
will reach the 1980's without the creation of strong,
new or revitalized international organizations to
cope with the new world economic dynamics.
Multinational Corporations
Emergence of great multinational corporations
(MNC) over the past two decades has introduced
new elements as major forces in the economic dy-
namics which will operate in the 1980's. These
entities provide the mechanism for managing the
increasingly interdependent relationships between
resource availability, technology for exploitation,
and the international political environment.
The MNC's provide a means for accomplishing
this increasingly important function; yet, their very
success has become a source of concern. The size
and economic power which these companies have
achieved has created fear and jealousy, especially
in the natural resource exporting countries.
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Most MNC's are aware of the foreign identity
stigma in second party countries. Their present
modality is to decrease their foreign profile and have
local people staff and operate the company as an
indigenous industry. MNC's provide capital and
reap profits. They will avoid involvement in inter-
national politics since it is too risky in a business
sense.
As multinational corporations are increasingly af-
fected by international events, their home govern-
ments will be under increasing pressure to provide
formal support; for example, foreign economic and
industrial intelligence. These governments will need
to find new ways to support their industries in order
to maintain their international economic positions
in the 1980's.
SOCIOPOLITICAL TRENDS
The increasing destructive power of weapons will
exercise a paralyzing influence upon the emergence
of large-scale conflicts especially among the large
advanced nations. The United States and the Soviet
Union will continue to seek a power balance, each
feeling pressures to divert resources to domestic
problems versus a continued awareness of the need
to maintain weapons parity. Arms limitation nego-
tiations provide a focus for this issue and a stimulus
to improve and upgrade existing systems with in-
creased emphasis on technology as a source of new
weapons. Kahn* sees nothing on the horizon which
is likely to change the character of the chronic po-
litical confrontations which threaten the stability of
the world today. He lists:
Divided
Triangular Nation-States
U.S. vs. U.S.S.R. Germany Arab-Israeli
U.S.S.R. vs. China China Indian-Pakistan
China vs. U.S. Korea Japan-China
Vietnam
The Japan/China confrontation has not been
given much consideration of late, but these two
nations have a long history of conflict. The rising
Japanese economy could be considered a threat
to China's position in East Asia and a symbol of
decadent values which threaten China's dedication
to the hard and lean way of life.
Japan
Recent events make clear that continued access
to natural resources, industrial capacity, and capital
*Kahn, Herman and B. Bruce-Briggs. Things to Come,
The MacMillan Company, New York, New York, 1972.
is vital to maintenance of national power. Japan,
for example, has been viewed by most experts as a
rising superstar nation. Energy and resource prob-
lems are now recognized as modifying this predic-
tion. Access to oil from the China Sea or other
sources with controlled costs will be needed to
soften the impact of current Arab oil prices. A high
degree of material recycling will be essential to
avert a critical shortage in material resources. Ja-
pan's technological and industrial base must remain
competitive during periods of changing costs and
increasing commercial threats.
Candidacy for superstar status is now being as-
signed to Brazil which is in a strong resource posi-
tion and more advanced politically and technolog-
ically than many of the other countries with a sur-
plus of resources.
While not a major potential oil reservoir, Brazil
is adjacent to major basins and has some offshore
possibilities. Its main strength is in mineral re-
sources. Brazil also has a strong agricultural po-
tential; if climatological forecasts come true, world
cooling will shift prime temperature zones toward
the equator, increasing Brazil's arable acreage. The
military government of Brazil lends a source of
stability and reduces the vulnerability to terrorism
against foreign operators.
The resource situation foreshadows interesting
potential for new politico-economic bedfellows.
Japan is looking at Brazil, not as a competitor, but
a potentially powerful ally who has much to gain
from Japan's technology and capital in exchange
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for a share of the profits. Latin America, however,
is not blind to the success which the Arab states
have had using the cartel approach to international
trade and will be strongly motivated to overcome
traditional incompatibilities if the ransom appears
sufficient.
Another type of analysis* adds a different element
to the forecast. A mathematical index of projected
power based on population, steel production, and
energy output forecasts indicates that China will
surpass the U.S., the Soviet Union, and Western
Europe by 1980 and will surpass these three power
bases combined in the early 1990's. To make this
projection more realistic, rather than the current
2.5% population growth rate for China, indexes
have been computed for a 1.0% and 0.5% popula-
tion growth which serves to delay the onset of
China's projected achievement but does not change
substantially the major conclusion. While the sim-
plifying assumptions of this type of mathematical
projection ignore many of the dynamics in the evolu-
tion of national power, the conclusion retains
enough rationality that China must be predicted
as a world power of increasing dominance during
the 1980's.
Countercultures vs. Counterreformation
The emergence of a significant world-wide coun-
tercultural element is the root force which must
be recognized in looking for what will be significant
intelligence questions of the "eighties." There are
identifiable, countercultural forces of growing pro-
portion which may impact _on cultural or national
ideologies in most major countries. While these
forces may not have significant impact on inter-
national policy during the 1980's, they will continue
to provide the motivation for revolutionary and
terrorist activity of international consequence.
The problem of counterreformation and the re-
turn to traditional national values may be of greater
* Heiss, Klaus P., Klaus Knorr, and Oskar Morgenstern.
Long-Term Projections of Political and Military Power,
Mathematica, Princeton, N.J., January 1973.
consequence in the near to intermediate future.
Whether future U.S. policy represents the new lib-
eralism or a reactionary ideological renewal of its
own, the counterreformation behavior of other gov-
ernments will be a problem for U.S. foreign policy.
Castro's return to traditional values provided the
mechanism for the introduction of Soviet commu-
nism into the Western Hemisphere. It provides the
best demonstration of why the monitoring of cul-
tural trends is a legitimate intelligence concern of
increasing significance.
Terrorism is a highly effective political weapon.
A few fanatics can terrorize many people. The costs
to suppress terrorism often exceed its relative im-
portance. National and international establishments
are not always prepared to meet these costs. Ter-
rorist activity is currently in its infancy and grow-
ing. Skyjacking, suicide attacks, and kidnapping
are becoming daily events. Letter bombs have been
demonstrated to be an effective weapons delivery
system without theoretical range or accuracy limita-
tion.
While the limits to sophistication have hardly
been reached in terms of weapons involved-nu-
clear devices and chemical incapacitants appear
now to be within the capability of underground
operants-the vulnerability of highly complex in-
dustrial nations far exceeds their ability to defend
themselves against such attack.
Transportation systems, electric power networks,
mass computerized record systems, municipal water
supplies, and energy supply systems would be
highly sensitive to disruption by relatively unob-
trusive terrorist tactics. Continually improving and
expanding international transportation and com-
munications add to the capability of international
terror groups to attack vital national functions.
There appears to be little hope of protecting these
systems, especially in an open society. By the 1980's,
intelligence operations against terrorist organiza-
tions could become a major national security respon-
sibility.
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On a probabilistic basis, the chances for unprc-
dicted technological events will continue to increase.
The probability of simultaneous discovery increases
and participation of newly industrialized societies
will continue to increase.
Nuclear Proliferation
Kahn* provides the following scenario for nuclear
proliferation:
"1975-1985: Japan in the late seventies or early
eighties, West Germany about five years later soon to
be followed by Italy; other possibilities are India,
Australia, and Sweden."
India is ahead of schedule having conducted an
underground nuclear test in 1974. Perhaps five to
ten more candidates could have this capability with-
in a decade.
Alternatively, a "worst-case" scenario is possible
by postulation of the adoption of a neoisolationist
position by the U.S. In this case, countries under
the U.S. umbrella would be stimulated to develop
nuclear armament capability; for example, Israel
(Egypt in response), similarly, India and Pakistan,
and Argentina, Brazil, or Mexico.
Strategic Weapons
Some of the strategic offensive weapons options,
available in the seventies, but probably unnecessary
and too costly or prohibited by treaty, have been
suggested by Kahn* as possibilities for the eighties.
Strategic missiles on the ocean floor or very large
nuclear weapons in orbit are two of such possibili-
ties. Pure fusion weapons with greater opportunity
for proliferation and chemical or biological weap-
ons, controllable both geographically and as to de-
gree of effect are prospects. Ballistic missile de-
fenses using space-based interceptors or entirely
new concepts for anti-SLBM warfare are definite
possibilities. Very large nuclear powered aircraft
are likely by the 1980's which open up such pos-
sibilities as airborne mobile missile launchers with
practically unlimited endurance and highly efficient
transport of commercial and military materials.
*Kahn, Herman and B. Bruce-Briggs. Things to Come,
The MacMillan Company, New York, New York, 1972.
Control of Environment
Other kinds of R&D results have both military
and non-military application, for example:
"Control of the geophysical environment by various
means could bring great benefit to mankind and also
revolutionary weapons possibilities . . ."
"Pharmacology could improve the ability of soldiers
and others to maintain peak performance or lead to the
effective `weaponization' of mind-influencing drugs."
"Advances in the behavioral sciences could lead to
solutions of cross-cultural problems, and importantly
affect political military relationships."
"Developments in sensors, computers, controlled sys-
tems, power supplies, transmissions, etc., could lead
to diverse types of automata capable of doing many
tasks now performed only by humans." *
As important as these technological innovations
can be for future weapons systems, their applica-
tion to the economic problems discussed earlier
could be of even greater consequence. Plowshare
uses of nuclear devices to stimulate petroleum yield
and in the construction of canals and harbors could
be in common use by the 1980's, thereby considerably
modifying both the time and cost estimates for re-
source exploitation and projections of the 1980's sce-
nario based on today's civil engineering techniques.
Technological Crisis
The "technological crisis of 1985" has been de-
scribed by von Neumann.** He suggests that the
accumulation of technology will reach crisis pro-
portions by 1980 as the realization of both the phys-
ical and moral threats of technology create increas-
ing disillusionment. With the exponential growth of
technology in a fixed total geographic space, failure
of complex systems serving large populations will
create major crises. The segment of society (upper-
middle class) historically most enthusiastic about
progress is beginning to question progress for its
own sake. Communication systems-telephone, tele-
vision, and computer-are becoming to be under-
stood not only as means for increasing one's scope
of influence but to a larger extent as a means of
being influenced. The potential rejection of tech-
nological progress suggested by such attitudes could
have a significant dampening effect on some of the
high technology prospects which could operate in
shaping the 1980's scenario.
*Kahn, Herman and B. Bruce-Briggs. Things to Conte,
The MacMillan Company, New York, N.Y., 1972.
**von Neumann, John. Can We Survive Technologic?
Fortune, June 1955.
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The scenario for the 1980's is outlined below:
Socioeconomic
1. Periods of critical shortage of natural resources,
including food, will occur during the 1980's.
2. Economic development of underdeveloped, re-
source-rich nations will be accelerated by technol-
ogy innovations.
3. Economic forces will lead to new alliances
based on resource technology amalgamation, new
nations will assume positions of world importance,
e.g., Brazil, and competition for resources will lead
to international friction.
4. Multinational corporations will overcome pres-
ent difficulties with resource-rich, developing coun-
tries and will become increasingly involved in inter-
national politics.
Sociopolitical
1. The status of China as a world force will in-
crease dramatically.
2. Chronic confrontations based on ideological
differences and divided national states will con-
tinue.
3. Counterreformation trends will subside in the
early 1980's as productivity expands during a period
of heightened world economic competition.
4. In response, new forms of terrorism aimed at
disruption of major industrial systems will reemerge
in the 1980's.
Technological and Politico-Military
1. There may be an international "technological
crisis of 1985" involving major collapses of highly
interdependent, high-technology systems and an
accumulating disenchantment with progress "for
the sake of progress."
2. Development with both military and non-mili-
tary applications will include:
? global communication networks;
? control of the geophysical environment:
? pharmacological means for influencing human per-
formance;
? behavioral science solutions to socioeconomic and
political-military problems; and
? new capabilities for automata to replace human
functions.
3. By the 1980's, the nuclear weapons community
will be expanded
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4. Progress will be made in agreements to limit
military forces but will be accompanied by the
introduction of new concepts in weaponry.
5. The following military technology possibilities
may become realities in the 1980's: strategic missiles
on the ocean floor, large nuclear weapons in orbit,
pure fusion weapons, deployment of advanced
weapons, new concepts in ballistic missile defense
including space-based interceptors, advanced ASW
concepts, and large nuclear powered aircraft.
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THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY OF THE 1980's
The primary purpose of this projection into the
future is to provide some basis for thinking about
what capabilities the intelligence Community will
require to cope with possible threats to the security
of the U.S. in the 1980's time frame.
In terms of resources available to the intelligence
function, near-term projections are for a fixed
budget at approximately today's dollar figure. This
represents a net annual decrease in available re-
sources approximately equal to the amount of in-
flation. It is probably overpessirnistic to project this
trend into the 1980's since allocation of national
resources involve many complex and often transient
conditions which cannot be appreciated in any
sufficiently precise way. Nevertheless, it seems
reasonable to assume that the tasks facing the Intel-
ligence Community will provide a real test for the
efficient utilization of resources.
Before the 1980's arrive, the Intelligence Com-
munity must solve the problem of intellectual com-
partmentation. Intelligence on natural resources
may well be more acute to crisis prediction than
military intelligence. Starvation in the 1980's is con-
sidered much more likely than nuclear warfare. But
one thing which emerges above all others is that
neither can be considered independently. With the
growing awareness of the highly interdependent
nature of factors which influence international
events, the demand for collection, processing, and
analysis of data must increase.
In order to cope with the production demands,
the Intelligence Community of the 1980's must:
? Have adopted better methods to communicate pre-
dictions of hostile economic, political, or military actions
to policymakers and to incorporate subsequent diplo-
matic feedback into on-going analyses.
? Have developed models of global phenomena
which have a demonstrated level of validity and are
exercised on a routine basis in the intelligence analysis
and production functions.
? Have an integrated data system which can he
maintained current with a practical level of analyst
involvement and a retrieval and computational capa-
bility to support a wide range of analytic requirements.
The systems will incorporate models of the subject area
of concern as well as decision rules that cause certain
actions to be taken automatically on the basis of newly
received intelligence. The analyst will be able to use
computer-network techniques to call forth data stored
in differing formats on different computers (that may
be widely dispersed geographically) and will be able
to compose and distribute reports utilizing text-editing
and other tools available in the 1980's. The system must
be compatible with collection tasking for maximum sup-
port to the analytic functions.
? Have a diversified and flexible collection capa-
bility, equally effective in support of economic, political,
and military requirements. Both technical and human
collection systems must have the capability of assigning
priorities and responding to mixed requirements in sup-
port of multivariate analyses.
Intelligence collection will become more difficult.
Access to economic statistics will diminish. Their
accuracy and credibility will be more suspected.
Data on reserves, production and transportation of
scarce commodities will be suppressed or masked.
New technologies for industry and the development
of revolutionary weapons for war will be more
closely guarded.
Intelligence operations will be increasingly ex-
pensive. Access to technical collection sites will be
denied. Opportunities for cover will vanish. Coun-
ter-intelligence capabilities in resource, technology,
and capital rich countries will mushroom. Covert
action opportunities will be denied by policymakers.
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THREATS FOR THE 1980's
The scenario for the 1980's has illuminated trends
developing in the world that are contrary to our
current foreign policy goals and overseas commer-
cial activities. The trends appear to be influenced
by increasing competition for scarce resources,
pressures for basic social changes and innovations
in weapons, and industrial technology. These trends
portend a need for modification of the traditional
roles, functions, and structures of the Intelligence
Community.
The hypothetical threats for the 1980's and the
conjectured intelligence questions are presented in
the following pages. They are divided into three
sections: socioeconomic, sociopolitical, and tech-
nological. Each section contains a description and
a set of important intelligence questions which
might be generated by each threat. The questions
are intended to provoke thinking that may provide
some inspiration to escape the bounds of tradition.
SOCIOECONOMIC THREATS AND QUESTIONS
Global Food Shortages
Long-term weather conditions are expected to
induce global food shortages and great famines may
result from dry weather patterns extending through
Africa, the Middle East, India, and South Asia.
Mean temperatures will decline for the next 50
years. The cooling trend portends reduced crop
yields in Canada, Northern Europe, Siberia, and
Northern China.
These trends will result in increased emergency
demands for food supplies. In the absence of food,
mass human migrations from submarginal to mar-
ginal land may result.
Crop failures in Central Asia and the deserts may
spark invasions of coastal China. Conflicts may
breakout among herders and coastal plains farmers
of West and South Africa.
Intelligence must prepare to detect such trends
and predict food shortages and inflation of food
prices. It must identify countries that cannot or will
not pay and may fight given some expectation of
survival.
Questions
1. What fundamental and significant climatological
trends are apt to make themselves felt during
the 1980's?
2. What would be the likely consequences in terms
of famines, populations, economies, and habitable
land areas?
3. How can effective birth control be instituted in
undeveloped countries to mitigate the food
shortage problem?
4. What international pressures will be exerted on
the United States and Canada as principal food
suppliers to share their abundance of food with
the rest of the world by appreciably curtailing
their own consumption?
5. What countries will have drought and famine?
What migrations, invasions, and conflicts will
result?
6. What impact will national weather modification
efforts have on neighboring nations?
Inflation, Foreign Trade, and National Power
The past two decades have been periods of in-
creasing inflation. Recently, the inflation rate has
accelerated. Prices of vital resources are rapidly
escalating. Increasing prices have caused storage
of commodities as a speculation, anticipating higher
future prices. This is generally true of resources
that require the least space for storage, for instance,
gold. Some resources, such as oil, can best be stored
by keeping them in the ground.
During periods of radical monetary inflation,
prices of raw materials advance more rapidly and
extensively than prices of semi-finished and espe-
cially, finished products. For example, countries
that have to buy all their petroleum will quickly
use up their working capital. Unless they have suf-
ficient reserves of capital to weather the inflation
storm, they will run into severe economic depression.
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One of the main characteristics of the period pre-
ceding the outbreak of World War II was the ex-
tensive use of international economic relations as
an instrument of national power politics, together
with a "war of nerves." This followed a period of
world inflation in the 1920's, the crisis in the world's
monetary system, and a subsequent period of coin-
mercial and industrial depression in the 1930's.
Questions
1. Will current inflation, exploding world monetary
crisis resulting from the Arab oil embargo, and
the "war of nerves" involving Israel and the
Arabs, the U.S. and West Europe, China and the
Worsening Energy Crisis*
Government control of key industries through the
necessity of rationing. energy
Government spending of hundreds of billions of
dollars in crash programs for energy procurement
Strip-mining for coal on a vast scale in the U.S.;
deep coal mining on a vast scale in most countries
A "Great Depression" of 1929 scope: reduced build-
ing construction; reduced employment opportu-
nities; a stock market collapse
Loss of world leadership to Russia due to a crippling
energy shortage
A world conflict over energy resources and possible
military conflict
U.S.S.R., result in competition for resources and
critical shortages?
2. What will be the structure of foreign trade dur-
ing the next decade?
3. Will there be some inherent weaknesses in for-
eign trade that will make it vulnerable to the will
of governments that might use it in the pursuit
of power?
4. Will new alliances form to ensure basic economic
survival or to wage economic warfare?
5. What role must intelligence play in anticipating
and dealing with severe commercial and indus-
trial depression?
By the end of the 1970's
By the end of the 1970's
1980
By the 1980's if even
one-half of the antici-
pated energy shortage
materializes
By the 1980's
By the 1980's
*Lawrence Rocks and Richard P. Runyon, Crown Publishers, New York, 1972, excerpt from
their scenario as reported in the Futurist, February 1974, page 26.
Questions
1. What international information must be available
to government policymakers and industrial man-
agement when making decisions about the tre=
mendous investments needed to ensure adequate
energy resources for the future?
2. Will Soviet oil exports be used as a lever in the
implementation of political and economic rela-
tions with other nations?
3. What impact should a Soviet breakthrough in
fusion energy have on relations with energy-
starved countries such as Japan, Italy, et al?
4. What are the probable causes of potential mili-
tary crises in the Persian Gulf? What combina-
tions of countries are likely to be involved? What
are the causal interrelationships and the conse-
quences of corrective actions?
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Multinational Corporations
Multinational corporations (MNC's) dominate
the natural resource markets of the world. They
control most of the production and distribution from
the resource reserves of the free world. They main-
tain the primary means for natural resource explora-
tion, development, and production. They have
legal, economic, and political relationships with
both industrial countries and developing countries
which form part of their unique brokerage system
for the negotiation of global purchase and sale of
resources.
The MNC's are in trouble. Members of govern-
ments in developed countries accuse them of du-
plicity in regard to their statistics, particularly those
related to prices, costs, and reserves. The under-
developed nations, who must export resources, rely
on these companies with suspicion and hard feel-
ings. Their relations are strained to the point where
the concessions are being expropriated.
One crucial threat to the corporations are the
periodic economic depressions that have racked
capitalism over the past hundred years and nearly
caused its ruin in the 1930's. The spectre of an
impending economic disaster has been raised by the
massive trade deficits for the U.S., Japan, and West
European countries as a result of exploding oil
prices.
Questions
1. What is the future role of the MNC's in stabiliz-
ing the resource supplies of the world versus the
conflicts their policies may generate among the
governments of developed and developing
nations?
2. As some host governments take control of op-
erations, will they have the practical knowledge
of the industry needed to avoid critical resource
shortages in the world markets?
4. Will a method be developed by which MNC's
could be incorporated under international laws,
subject to a single international income tax or
will they seek greater support and protection
from home governments?
SOCIOPOLITICAL THREATS AND QUESTIONS
Social Change and Prediction of Conflicts
The complex social systems evolving in advanced
industrial societies are generating internal contra-
dictions or adversary cultures which have anti-
bourgeois values and countercultures which advo-
cate antinomian revolutions in life style. These cul-
tures may spawn social and national antagonisms
between various classes and races. The current in-
ternational terrorist activities in the Middle East
may portend such developments. The ominous
theme sounded in 1956 by Lin Piao when he warned
that the class struggles of the end of the twentieth
century could be between nations rather than within
them may be relevant to the emerging struggle
between the underdeveloped nations who possess
vital natural resources and the industrial nations
who need them.
A principal problem for intelligence is to predict
hostile economic, political, or military actions. Such
predictions are inherently difficult. No formalized
rules have been developed or adopted by the In-
telligence Community.
Predictions in the community are made by indi-
vidual analysts. Their success is largely dependent
on their detailed knowledge of foreign government
leaders and judgment based on long study of the
countries concerned. Their task is to produce a
report that provides assessments and predictions
that are useful to decisionmakers. The record of
the community's predictions of important interna-
tional events suggests that the methods used are
inadequate.
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Questions
1. What are the significant determinants of social,
political, and economic change?
2. What are the likely antitheses to current societal
arrangements?
3. What new stresses could emerge from an "irre-
versible peace" in the 1980's?
4. Will non-nuclear countries have the freedom to
be irresponsible?
5. What are the plausible trends in the development
and distribution of cheap weapons to terrorists?
6. What methods can be used to assimilate all the
information that the community collects in order
to advise decisionmakers of the important trends
and prospects?
Control of the Sea Beds
Some of the greatest sources of wealth lie in the
ocean floor. The development of technology for
exploitation of its mineral and biological resources
is accelerating. Increasing demands will be placed
on the ocean as a source of food-fish, crabs, and
other organisms. Development of offshore oil and
gas reserves will accelerate. Nodule deposits of
high-grade manganese ore are being discovered.
Aluminum, copper, cobalt, titanium, and other
metals are also contained in nodules. Initial. ex-
ploitation of minerals on a commercial scale is pro-
jected for the mid-1980's.
A technological revolution is opening up the
ocean beds. Exploitation of its mineral and bio-
logical resources is accelerating. The oceans will
be subjected to ever increasing exclusive and com-
peting national controls. Rival states or groups of
states will divide widening portions of the ocean
bed.
Questions
1. Which nations will possess the technology, capi-
tal, political, and military protection required to
exploit ocean-bed resources?
2. How will the benefits from the ocean, the last
great resource of the earth, be maintained and
divided?
3. What role will Soviet naval and fishing fleets
play in the race for control of the ocean re-
sources?
4. What military and economic controls will be
essential to constructive, international coopera-
tion and the prevention of disastrous conflicts?
5. What capabilities for underwater monitoring and
search will be required to control and regulate
international agreements concerning the sea
beds?
Global service networks for television, telephone,
air transport control, weather, facsimile, and other
data transmissions are creating new social inter-
actions and economic interdependencies. The in-
creasing dependence of individual nations, national
alliances, and international consortiums on these
networks will make them more susceptible to
threatened interruption or exploitation by destruc-
tive or obstructive action.
The broader and longer range implications of
the rapid development of satellite systems for more
direct human communications are not yet generally
recognized. Governments, business organizations, or
individuals can communicate with anyone, anytime,
at any place in the world.
This capability is revolutionizing the develop-
ment pattern of emerging nations. It places the ap-
plication of human knowledge within the reach of
every nation and community.
Satellites capable of relaying telecasts direct to
home TV sets will be in common use during the
1980's. European, Japanese, and the Indian gov-
ernments have plans to make use of such systems.
Pressures to curb these trends are developing,
particularly where the telecasts may intrude on
neighboring countries with different political sys-
tems. Communists and some developing countries
are leading the opposition.
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Biological and Behavioral Innovations for the 1980's*
Drugs to improve perception ....... 1985
1975
- 2010
Preselection of the sex of babies with
90% certainty ................. 1980
1980
- 1990
Drugs to improve perception ..... 1985
1975
- 2010
Human clone .................... 1985
1990
- 2010
These projected developments reveal the recent
trends of the strong focus of interest in bioen-
gineering. These and related developments are ex-
pected to provide more precise and accurate under-
standing, prediction, and control of individual and
group behavior. Developments are anticipated in
remote reading and prediction of physical and
mental health and in the understanding and control
over neurophysiological and brain functions. Sig-
nificant improvements in human intellectual and
physical performance may emerge.
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TECHNOLOGICAL THREATS AND QUESTIONS
Advancement of Soviet Technology)
The Soviet leadership places more emphasis on
science and technology than any other subject re-
garding future plans and goals for the U.S.S.R.
Most of the top leaders are engineers by training.
Nine of the sixteen voting members of the Polit-
buro are graduates of technical schools. Seven of
the ten CPSU Secretaries and eight of the nine
Deputy Premiers also are technical school gradu-
ates.
These technology oriented leaders view attain-
ment of preeminence in science and technology as
essential to the ultimate triumph of socialism on a
world scale. Party General Secretary Brezhnev (1935
graduate of the Dneprodzerzhinsk Metallurgical In-
stitute) asserted, "the center of gravity in compe-
tition between the two systems is now found pre-
cisely in this field."
The leadership in the United States has seriously
questioned the value of pursuing the further de-
velopment of science and technology. The number
of scientists and engineers engaged in R&D in both
the U.S. and U.S.S.R. were about 500,000 in 1966.
Since then, the number continued to grow to about
800,000 in the U.S.S.R. and declined to about
400,000 in the U.S. The Office of Science and Tech-
nology within the Executive Office of the Presi-
dent was eliminated and its functions transferred
to the Director of the National Science Foundation.
Congressman John W. Davis of Georgia pointed out
that the present standing of the Director ". . . as a
civil servant is of the same grade as an Assistant
Secretary of Agriculture."* These attitudes suggest
the possibility of a future technology gap that favors
the U.S.S.R.
Questions
1. What are the prospects for future gaps in tech-
nologies that favor the U.S.S.R. or other industrial
nations over the U.S.?
2. What are the prospects for development of better
theories for the impact of scientific discovery
* Hearings before the Committee on Science and Astro-
nautics, U.S. House of Representatives, 93rd Congress, 1st
Session, July 17, 19, 22, 23, 1973, No. 8, p. 72.
and invention as they relate to key advanced and
developing nations?
3. How can comparisons be made at the level of
industrial technology, the level of engineering
development, and the future level of technology?
4. What new weapons concepts could emerge which
could not be detected or recognized with con-
temporary monitoring techniques?
*Robert H. Kingston. Laser Technology; Technology
Forecast for 1980, edited by Ernst Weber, et al., Van
Nostrand Reinhold, Co., 1971.
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25
25
25
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are likely to produce nuclear weapons. ow
can these activities be monitored?
Questions
1. What ASW capabilities can be expected of the
U.S.S.R. in the 1980's?
2. What countermeasures can be anticipated against
U.S. SLBM's?
3. What are the prospects for revolutionary inven-
tion in surface or subsurface naval warfare?
*C. S. Draper, Instrumentation Technology, p. 183, in
Technology Forecast for 1980, edited by Ernst Weber, et al.,
Van Nostrand Reinhold, Co., 1971.
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Exploding Internationalism
Possible surprises for the 1980's may occur
through an evolution of intimate international po-
litical and economic relations made increasingly
possible by the exponential growth of modern tech-
nology and its effects on the growth of contem-
porary societies.
During the 1980's, increasing forces will create
an environment conducive to international govern-
ment. These forces include:
? Weapons' costs, treaty monitoring, subna-
tional threats (terrorism), doomsday weapons,
proliferation of nuclear capabilities, and possibly
accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons
will become increasingly persuasive arguments
against traditional forms of managing interna-
tional problems.
? Accelerating competition for food and di-
minishing natural resources will increase pressure
for international management and control to avoid
conflict and inflation.
? Growth of multinational corporations will
create the need for international agreements to
cope with the unilateral political and economic
influence available to these mammoth organi-
zations.
? Control of population growth, increased
literacy, world-wide communication, and mass
high-speed transportation will expand the inter-
national exchange of ideas and culture.
? Increasing use of world conferences and
centers to investigate problems of common con-
cern, discuss ideas, develop solutions, and trans-
act business.
? Growth and amalgamation of countercul-
tural forces disenchanted with traditional national
goals will exert strong political pressure against
national competition.
? Common quest for a more abundant and
creatively meaningful life.
? Trends toward movement across interna-
tional boundaries free of formalized restrictions
such as passports, visas, etc.
? Growing acceptance of English as a universal
language.
Emergence of an International Technocracy
Scientists and engineers will play a major role
in the epochal transformation of the world by ac-
tive and forceful participation in national and in-
ternational politics. They will provide the fountain-
head of international political efforts to build agri-
culture, housing, education, commerce, and industry
in emerging industrial countries. These countries
will adopt space age technologies, not the nine-
teenth century industrial technology which still
burdens the major cities of North America and
Western Europe. The future of these emerging
countries will be profoundly influenced by certain
fields of science and engineering that are under-
going rapid change. New ideas will have their
greatest impact on future societies now emerging
from the embryo stage into the take-off stages. The
forces that will drive epochal technological changes
include:
? Demise of the anti-technology mania of the
1970's; the collapse of psychological and ideo-
logical resistance to radical changes initiated by
new technological developments as post-indus-
trial governments perceive an incipient techno-
logical gap in their military and industrial capa-
bilitv.
? Increasingly forceful participation by some
of the best scientists and engineers in the interna-
tional political processes as great technological
changes of the 1980's make them vitally important
and places the world increasingly in need of using
technical minds for technical decisions.
? The systematic evolution of a new social
force based on technical organization and indus-
trial management; a social force reminiscent of
the "Soviet of Technicians" described nearly half
a century ago by Thorstein Veblen in his "En-
gineers and the Price System."
? The application of technical resources to
the solution of the large scale, crucial problems
of society; new ideas that will revolutionize so-
cioeconomic trends and impart great powers of
expansion in industry and commerce among the
developing countries of the world.
? The explosion of science into undeveloped
countries, such as China and India, launching
them on the trajectory of the logistic growth
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curve. Many of the emerging countries will spec-
tacularly improve their position in world science
and consequently the majority position of the big
nations in world science will sharply diminish.
? The development of cheap methods of pro-
ducing fresh water from the sea and the installa-
tion of desalting plants on many parched sea
coasts of the world.
? The development of cheap methods to pro-
duce the important ammonia fertilizer necessary
to help feed the hungry people of the world.
? The integration of lasers, computers, tele-
vision, rockets, and satellites into instantaneous
world-wide communication systems.
? The development of new materials that will
initiate profound changes in industrial engineer-
ing and drastically alter patterns of world trade.
? Systematic computerized simulation and
analyses of multidimensional sociopolitical, socio-
economic, and technological problems of large
metropolitan areas.
? The design of sweeping bands of metro-
politan areas stretched out over the surfaces of
the continents-the ecumenical mctropoles of
the future.
? Man-machine symbioses by brain amplifica-
tion and brain to computer interconnections.
? Interplanetary rocket flight-the cosmology
of the universe, its past and future; exploration
of the last worldly frontier-pioneering develop-
ment of the natural resources beneath the oceans.
? Improved understanding of basic laws of
physics, field theory, and submolecular physics.
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Anureyev, Ivan Ivanovich. Antimissile and Space Defense
Weapons, U.S.S.R. Ministry of Defense, Moscow, 1971,
JPRS 57378, Order of Red Banner Military Publishing
House, 31 October 1972.
Babson, Rodger W. If Inflation Comes, Frederick A. Stokes
Company, N.Y., N.Y., 1937, 17th printing (revised edi-
tion), 1941.
Becker, Abraham S. Oil and the Persian Gulf in Soviet
Policy in the 1970's, P-4743-1, The Rand Corporation,
May 1972.
Bell, Daniel. The Coming of Post Industrial Society, Basic
Books, Inc., N.Y., 1973.
Boulding, Kenneth E. The Meaning of the Twentieth Cen-
tury, Harper Colophon Books, 1964.
Bowles, Richard P., et at. Protest, Violence and Social
Change, Prentice-Hall of Canada Ltd., 1972.
Bronwell, Arthur B. Science and Technology in the World of
the Future, Wiley Interscience, 1970.
Brown, Hugh Auchincloss. Cataclysms of the Earth, Twayne
Publishers, N.Y., N.Y., 1967.
Burton, Theodore E. Financial Crises and Periods of Indus-
trial and Commercial Depression, D. Appleton and Com-
pany, 1932.
Calder, Nigel and Alan Lane. Unless Peace Conies, The
Penguin Press, London, 1968.
Cassel, Gustav. The Crisis in the World's Monetary System,
Oxford at the Clarendon Press, 1932.
Chase, S. The Most Probable World, Harper & Row, New
York, N.Y., 1968.
Cournand, A. and M. Levy. Shaping the Future; Gaston
Berger and Prospective Approaches to the Future, Gordon
and Breach Science Publishers, N.Y., 1973.
Denison, Edward F. and Jean-Pierre Poullier. Why Growth
Rates Differ; Postwar Experience in Nine Western Coun-
tries, Brookings Institute, Washington, D.C., 1971.
de Solla Price, Derek J. Little Science, Big Science, Co-
lumbia University Press, N.Y., 1963.
Drucker, Peter F. Landmarks of Tomorrow, Harper & Row,
New York, N.Y., 1957.
Farmer, Richard N. The Real World of 1984; A Look at
the Foreseeable Future, David McKay Company, Inc.,
1973.
Galbraith, John K. The New Industrial State, Naughton
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