PROGRAM FOR IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF ANALYSIS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M00596A000200020041-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 41
• Publication Date: October 25, 1978
• Content Type: MF

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MF1VORANDUM FOR: The Director
FROM Robert R. Bowie
SUBJECT Program for Improving the Quality of Analysis
This memorandum is a summary of steps being taken to improve the
quality of analysis in NFAC, DIA, and INR. It also serves as a status
report with regard to a number undertakings not yet completed.
We have tried to develop a program to improve the quality of our
analysts, the physical and professional milieu in which they operate,
and the quality of our final product. Within CIA, the National Foreign
Assessment Center has created a small staff working full time on the
formulation of issues and programs germane to improvement in the
quality of intelligence production and analysis. At the same time,
the Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment has created an
interagency steering group, with membership from CIA, INR, and DIA,
tasked to devise parallel and complementary programs. for the entire
Community.
BASIC CHANGES IN MAXAGLIEN'T
Integration of Analysis Across Disciplines. We-have changed our
management of analysis in NTAC to overcome identified shortcomings in
the analytical process. First, we have stressed the production of fully
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integrated or interdisciplinary studies of topics that are key to the
deliberations of the policy community. The NIOs are our principal
instrument in this effort. They ensure the coordinated participation
of all functional skills in the analysis of major intelligence questions.
The NIOs are now organized in clusters which cut across the disciplines
of the production offices. They have responsibilities both for coordi-
nation of community production and for the integration of disciplinary
analysis within NFAC. With the issuance of the National Intelligence _.
Topics, NFAC has developed production strategies to address the questions
posed by the PRC(I). NFAC offices have committed themselves to produce
specific analyses. The NIOs have coordinated the production strategies
with State and DIA, and have gained from them commitments to share in
answering the PRC(I) questions.
At the same time, an increasing number of interdisciplinary efforts
have been generated among the various NFAC offices. Most notable in
this regard are the development of a full program of analysis on Soviet
cruise missiles and naval forces, and the creation of a Cuban task
force that brings together in one workspace analysts from a number of
offices to work on a jointly developed program.
Consumer Contact. We have worked hard to develop and maintain
policy contacts to ensure the relevance of our analysis. The NIOs have
taken the lead in this regard, and in almost every case have established
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close relationships with appropriate members of the NSC Staff and other
involved agencies. There is considerable discussion of major problems
and concerns among these individuals. Moreover, the offices themselves
have established similar relationships with counterparts at the NSC and
elsewhere in government. There is, for example, a regular discussion
of our program for regional and political analysis with appropriate
members of the NSC Staff. The support we provide is frequently highly
tailored to expressed needs.
The Director of INR has recently tasked the directors of his
production offices to consult with State's Bureau Chiefs to formulate
(3)
c)
a quarterly research program to better focus on the concerns of the
Department's policymakers. DIA has recently established a Director's
Group which will work closely with the Defense Intelligence Officers
and Pentagon leaders to establish a departmental production program
more responsive to the needs of the offices of the Secretary of Defense.
Program Development. NFAC was established in part to provide a
basis for the formulation of a program of analysis that will both link
the work of the production offices and tie it into a program of community
production (i.e., estimates or interagency memoranda). We have established
a Production Board which meets regularly to review the program and its
individual pieces. The Board reviewed the strategies to address the
questions developed by the PRC(I) and will continue to monitor NFAC and
community progress against the NITs.
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Improved Critical Review. Fundamental to our efforts to improve
the quality of our intelligence product is the toughening of the critical
review it receives. I am personally spending the largest amount of my
time in trying to provide that kind of review. It is obviously a job
that requires far more time and attention than I alone can give it.
We have established relationships with a number of outside consul-1
tants who have been used to review such major products as NIE 11-3/8,
NIE 11-4, and the
established a panel of some 50 such consultants to review output in
all fields under the purview of the NIOs.
This panel will be augmented by a Review Board which I expect to
consist of three or four eminent people with a critical and analytical
bent. They will have varying past experience, but broad perspectives.
I hope the members will devote nearly full time to this job. Ambassador
William Leonhart is the first panelist to sign on and General Bruce Palmer
will be on board soon. Ambassador Leonhart is now reviewing NFAC produc-
tion procedures in order to define with some precision the optimum timing
of Review Board interaction, and the precise role it will play.
We are now considering the establishment of an NFAC office-level
review panel composed of production managers and senior analysts from
the production offices. This panel would review major intelligence
efforts to determine if the analytical approach is focused on the proper
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issues and questions. Service on the interoffice panel will give
our analysts a chance to broaden their own perspectives and to think
in interdisciplinary terms.
IMPROVING ANALYTIC CAPABILITIES AND ANALYST MILIEU
The immediate problem for both the NFAC staff and the interagency
steering group has been to acquire the data base necessary to permit
more rational and concrete planning for specific programs to address
the areas for improvement discussed above.
To do this, NFAC, in cooperation with CIA's Psychological Services
Staff, is engaged in an extensive survey of all NFAC professional
employees to construct a detailed personnel data base on the numbers,
kinds, and qualifications of all NFAC personnel resources engaged in
intelligence.analysis and production.
This detailed inventory of personnel resources, education, skills,
area, and work experience will be used to provide benchmarks against
which NFAC's current status in the various areas of analysis and produc-
tion can be determined. On this basis, gaps or deficiencies in NFAC
capabilities can be measured and a series of achievable targets and
goals will be established for planning purposes.
The NFAC questionnaire has been made available to INR and DIA
with a view to its use in those organizations so that they can establish i
similar targets and goals for inclusion in an integrated community program.
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In addition, the USAF Occupational Measurement Center is
conducting, on behalf of DIA, a job analysis survey of DIA analysts.
This survey will be a detailed examination of the analytical process
in DIA, the conditions and environment in which the DIA analyst works,
and the level of skills and performance required to do the job. This
survey should provide valuable data for revamping the curricula at the
Defense Intelligence School, for adjusting personnel recruiting and
training standards, and for making possible changes in the way DIA is
organized for intelligence production.
Training. Each of the major production components of the intelli-
gence community has attempted to maintain active training programs for
the development of area, language, and functional skills. The surveys
currently underway will give production managers a much more specific
inventory of the skills and backgrounds of their professional cadre.
On this basis, we should be in a position by the beginning of Calendar
Year 1979 to elaborate specific training programs and goals to be
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achieved over a five-year period. 9
Analytical Process. Though a considerable amount of time is spent
in training by NFAC analysts, certain types of training should be
emphasized. We have just completed the second running of a seminar
for seasoned analysts. It is intended to make them more self-conscious
about the analytical process and to encourage interdisciplinary work.
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questions about our use of information, the ways in which we deal
with uncertainty, and the underlying nature of knowledge itself in
the intelligence profession. It includes an exercise involving two
teams working in an interdisciplinary fashion on a genuine intelligence
problem of significance. The first session proved the merit of the project,
and we intend to continue to offer the seminar until most analysts have
participated. We are using an outside contractor to help us to develop
challenging case study materials for this course. With these materials,
analysts will test their analytical skills on problems in which many
variables come into play and where real outcomes have been documented
by the case study creators. Once the final curriculum of this course
has been established, NFAC will invite INR and DIA to review it for
application to their needs.
Tailored Courses. In the last year or so we have been quite
successful in the specialized tutorial training of analysts by
academics brought in from local universities. For example, an
intensive economics workshop for political analysts has been offered
three times (total, 37 students). It has been extremely worthwhile and
will be offered again. We intend to undertake more such efforts,
perhaps to include the introduction of area studies background for
technical analysts, and technical concepts for area specialists.
Language Training. In NFAC, the state of language training is
undergoing reassessment. Our need is primarily to provide reading
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skills in a fairly large number of languages. In the past, the
Agency language program has been oriented to DDO needs, emphasizing
conversational capabilities. Much of the criticism of the older
program centered about a contention that hard-won language skills
were often quickly lost because they simply were not used. On the
other hand, reading skills will be maintained and should result in
the introduction of more primary sources into our analysis. The
Office of Training has been investigating new approaches to the
teaching of language for reading purposes. A course for reading
Chinese has been tailored for OER. There is a growing recognition of
the need for reconstituting our language capability. In the past
year the Office of Economic Research has also begun a program of full-
time Russian language training for a substantial number of analysts.
I note with some outrage that the major obstacle to expanding the
provision of such courses for NFAC analysts is the lack of space in
the Headquarters building in which to hold classes.
Methodology and Computer Support. The application of new methodo-
logical approaches and the use of computer support facilities is being
actively implemented in the major production elements of the intelligence
community. Each of the major production elements of NFAC has a staff
or unit dedicated to working with analysts in the application of new
methodologies to the analytical process. This work is also supplemented
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by NFAC and ORD sponsorship of the Analytical Support Center. DIA
has a very active training program to introduce its analysts to
the utilization of new analytical methodologies and skills. During
the last fiscal year such training has been given to about 700 DIA
analysts.
Computer support programs to assist the analyst are widespread
in the community. CIA and DIA jointly are proceeding with Project
SAFE, the major community undertaking in this field. Project SAFE
was scheduled to become fully operational in Fiscal Year 1982 or 1983.
Recent budgetary decisions taken during the review of the FY 1980
budget proposals have affected the scope of the SAFE program and will
delay its operational start by at least a year.
During 1979, INR will devote more than 10 percent of its budget
to provide improved information handling support, designed to enable
INR to keep pace with other members of the intelligence community.
A major concern in this area is to get a better fix on the nature
and types of extant information handling systems and to relate them to
the analysts' information handling requirements. Such a study is
currently being made by the Office of Community Information Systems.
When completed, this study should provide a basis for setting specific
and realistic goals and targets for relating ADP programs and information
handling systems to the analytical process and the actual needs of the
analyst.
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Overseas Experience. We need to increase the exposure of our
regional and country analysts to the territories and societies for
which they are responsible. A key to accomplishing this is to provide
an opportunity for younger analysts to pursue specialized area training
abroad. More will be said about this program later.
Lateral Entry. We have given a good deal of attention to the
identification of suitable candidates for lateral entry into NFAC from
outside CIA. We have also given a good deal of attention to possible
transfers from the DDO, and have identified a number of likely prospects.
In the past year, we have hired professionals with a broad range
of background and experience. About 60% were hired between GS-11 and
GS-15 (MA to PhD, with varying work experience). For example, OER
hired at GS-14 a 55 year-old PhD in Economics who has been an economic
has almost native fluency in French and German. ORPA hired at GS-13
a 42 year-old PhD in political science (Russian Studies) who has been
a professor
University. He has traveled and studied in the USSR on three occasions.
He was offered, and refused, in favor of CIA, chairmanship of the
Department of Political Science
34 year-old MS in atomic physics who has extensive experience in
private industry and laboratories and at the Pacific Missile Range in
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California. He will work in the Offensive and Space Systems Division
of OWI. Naturally, there are also some more junior people among our
recent recruits.
We also have a scholar-in-residence program whereby noted re-
searchers come to work for us for one to two years and then return to
their former posts.)
I just completed a two-year
tour, and has returned to teaching. He added greatly to our understanding
of the Soviet leadership.
has worked with OER on international agriculture for six to eight months.
is in process by ORPA
to work on Soviet relations with states that border the USSR.
Assignmdnt of Analysts to Other Agencies. We are making use of
opportunities when they arise to assign analysts to other agencies of
government where they have the opportunity to experience the day-to-
day concerns of the community we serve. At present we have two officers
assigned to the NSC, seven assigned in various places in the Defense
establishment, five in the State Department, two in the Department
of Energy, and one at the Department of Commerce. These assignments
are effective in broadening the experience and the sensitivities of
our analysts.
Priority of Analytical Activities. Perhaps the most difficult
problem that we face in trying to improve the quality of NFAC analysis
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is to ensure the analyst sufficient time and opportunity to work on
longer term issue analyses and on more basic research. The problem
arises because of the tremendous demand to report current events and
the ever growing number of requests for immediate support in the form
of briefings, typescripts, graphics, etc. Some accommodation can be
made by shifting the priorities of our various analytical activities,
but the basic problem will remain so long as additional resources are
not allocated to production.
Current Intelligence Versus Long Term Work. Over the past year
NFAC has taken a number of steps to reduce the resources devoted to
current reporting. Beyond these steps we are in the process of
instilling in analysts an understanding of our mission that gives a
greater premium to longer term and more rigorous analysis. We must,
of course, bolster such steps as these with an appropriate system of
incentives and rewards that gives credibility to our exhortations.
Ad Hoc Requests. The problem of dealing with ad hoc requests
is more difficult. It is rarely possible to refuse to respond to
requests for intelligence support and there seems to be little we can
do to establish the priority of competing requests. All in all, the
greatest portion of the time of our analysts is spent providing
immediate response to requests from all parts of the government and
even from the public at large. There may come a time when we must
narrow the community we serve and limit our offers of support if we
are to improve our most important work.
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Use of Outside Support. Though we have long relied heavily on
outside support in various parts of NFAC, there is a substantial
amount of resistance to external research in some parts of the
organization. In many respects this reluctance is understandable.
Particularly in the realm of regional and political analysis, there
exists no group of qualified people suitably organized to provide
both the reliable and responsive support and the continuing participation
in the production process that we require. We are working hard to
develop such a capability outside the Agency.
Problems of Space and Time.
Space. CIA, DIA, and INR are plagued with problems of space
that range from extreme dispersal of production units, to facilities
that are structurally unsound and hazardous, to extreme overcrowding.
Through the years, office space available to NFAC has not grown as our
numbers have increased. Working conditions are generally unsatisfactory j
for the kind of concentrated analytical work we require. Most of our
people work in open rooms where noise and traffic detract from thoughtful
work. At CIA, we are now encountering prospective employees who are
deciding against employment because of the working conditions that exist.
Moreover, the physical environment is such, particularly in DIA and INR,
that the transmission and dissemination of compartmented intelligence
information cannot be carried out efficiently and presents significant
problems for the maintenance of security.
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The obvious solution, the acquisition of additional buildings,
is close to intractable. The Presidential embargo on the lease of
additional building space is preventing a short-term easing of the
space problems at CIA and DIA. A longer term solution, the construction
of new buildings, is so remote as to be virtually nonexistent. For
more than five years, DIA has sought unsuccessfully to secure authoriza-
tion for a new building to house its production and production support
elements which presently are housed in five separate facilities. Some
stop-gap measures are being undertaken. INR is in the process of moving
its two largest regional offices into a single enlarged secure area.
At CIA, NFAC has recently concluded a review of its space
facilities and has found for those units presently located at CIA
Headquarters a shortfall on the order of 30,000 square feet. Because
additional building space is out of reach, the study group has also
investigated the feasibility of using open plan office designs and
systems furniture as a means of improving the space situation. NFAC/OCR
is currently working with the Office of Logistics to create a pilot
open plan layout for one of OCR's divisions. If this pilot program
demonstrates a significant improvement in space utilization and working
environment, NFAC will propose a major conversion program starting in
Fiscal Year 1980.
Time. Closely related to this is the problem discussed above
of ensuring that our analysts have the time to do the sorts of analysis
we are trying to accomplish. Beyond our concerns with priorities,
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NFAC is looking at ways to improve the effectiveness of analytical
activities by replacing high skills with lower skills wherever
possible. In this regard our effort to get a SAFE system which will
provide vastly more effective access to incoming and archival informa-
tion is an important part of our future. our experience with an
interim system with a substantially more limited capability than that
anticipated for SAFE has proven the concept worthwhile. It has been
enthusiastically accepted by the analysts and makes a substantial
contribution to the quality of the work they do. The increased use
of intelligence assistants to help analysts cope with their paper flow
and data needs, and development of better procedures to deal with
many of the competing demands on analysts' time should also improve
the situation to a modest extent.
INCREASING OVERSEAS EXPOSURE OF ANALYSTS
As noted above, a major goal to improve the quality of analysis is
to provide our analysts with deeper immersion in the foreign societies
for which they are responsible. Without personaltzedJ overseas experience
they often lack the necessary sensitivity to the forces affecting events
in the countries they cover. We have made several inventories of the
overseas experience of our analysts and found it to be uneven and often
lacking in key geographic areas. We are undertaking a deeper assessment
of this situation in order to identify with specifcity the numbers and
types of analysts we need with this kind of overseas exposure. The
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results of that assessment will enable us to target our selection
of candidates for a number of programs we are now getting underway.
Training Abroad. Though it was eliminated in the FY 79 budget,
we continue to believe that a foreign specialist training program
(one year of study abroad) should be established. We have begun to
investigate the possibilities of instituting such a program and have
found impressive candidates within NFAC. As a result of discussions
with the Cover Staff, we find that there are substantial problems in
handling the arrangements required. It appears necessary at this time
to contact appropriate US educational institutions to explain our needs
in some detail. We should solicit their support in sponsoring over-
seas training for NFAC analysts who have established academic standing
with their institutions. In this endeavor we would, of course, be
totally forthcoming with the institutions involved.
Conducting Analysis Abroad. With Congressional approval of the l
FY 79 budget, we will have established eleven official slots for the
use of analysts on two-year PCS assignment abroad. Moreover, the
DDO has provided us with enough MODE positions for this purpose.
Candidates with suitable language qualifications have been identified.
We are negotiating with the State Department to get its approval for
eleven regional analyst positions, particularly in those LDCs judged
to be of greatest importance to US interests. We believe that this is
a program of great importance, and that it should grow to 25 positions
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in key countries over time. It will both improve our analysis in
the short term and enhance our analytical strength over the long
run.
Although INR is able to benefit from the rotational assignment
of Foreign Service Officers, it is also seeking to establish a program
of overseas assignments for its permanent cadre. DIA is expanding
its programs for analyst travel to overseas areas and greater employment
of`graduates of the Department of Army's excellent foreign Area
Specialists School.
Recruitment of Analysts Who Have Lived Abroad. We are continuing
to look for new employees who have lived abroad for significant periods
of time and have the necessary language capabilities. As noted above,
NFAC has brought aboard some DDO people who have these qualifications.
CAREER MANAGEMENT FOR ANALYSTS
An integral part of any program to improve the quality of analysis
is the development of means of career progression which provide adequate
incentives and rewards. These measures should be designed to enhance
advancement to senior grades and positions of responsibility on the
basis of performance as an analyst and not solely on the basis of
administrative, supervisory, or management skills.
Progress on this score among the major production elements of the
community has been slow and uneven.
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In CIA, the NFAC Management Advisory Group submitted to the
DCI in June of this year a study on the creation of an intelligence
specialist corps within NFAC. Their study recommended the alloca-
tion of a number of senior positions in grades GS-15 to GS-17 to
be assigned to intelligence specialists fully insulated from adminis-
trative and managerial responsibilities. The DCI has endorsed this
study in principle and the production offices of NFAC are presently
defining their needs for intelligence specialists and the qualifications
to achieve such status.
DIA has taken a number of steps to improve its career manage-
ment programs for analysts. It is utilizing the DoD's Defense
Intelligence Special Career Automated System (DISCAS) to identify
and select from DoD-wide registrants applicants for analyst vacancies.
DIA has also sought DoD approval for additional allocation of super-
grade positions for intelligence analyst positions.
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Steps in 1978 to Increase Interdisciplinary Analysis
1. The Cuban Task Force.
2. The NIT exercise.
3. The Presidential briefing system.
4. OER.is now in the process of establishing a Petroleum Supply
Analysis Center which will bring to bear the combined
talents of economists, geologists, petroleum engineers,
computer modelling specialists, etc., on this key question.
5. To ensure that the work of OER, OGCR, ORD, OIA, and NPIC
on technical aspects of petroleum supply questions is
thoroughly integrated, we are also establishing a policy
board to make policy, set priorities, and otherwise guide
the efforts of the various offices. This will be done before
the end of 1978.
6. Redesignation of the NIO for Economics as the NIO for
Political Economy and expansion of his role.
7. Development of very close links between OER and ORPA on
questions on Soviet energy policy.
8. Detail of an ORPA China analyst to OER for joint projects.
9. OER and ORPA line managers held a joint conference, with
NIO/PE participation, to discuss various proposals for
improving interdisciplinary analysis, joint research planning,
and coordinated allocation of resources.
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WASHINGTON, P. C. 20505
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Intelligence Officer for Special Studies
National Intelligence Officer-for Nuclear Proliferation
SUBJECT: Submission for DCI Annual Report
In response to your request, the following paragraph is submitted
for inclusion in Section II (Key Issues) of Part I of the DCI Annual
Report:
New efforts were mounted in 1978 to improve the quality
as well as the quantity of analysis on nuclear proliferation.
As a result, the Intelligence Community has begun to produce
more comprehensive and specialized assessments of countries and
issues of greatest concern in the development of US national
security policies. Multidisciplined analyses were integrated
into forward-looking assessments of South African and South
Korean political-military threat perceptions, military-industrial
decisionmaking processes, and options for nuclear development.
A comparative economic appraisal of all developing countries'
nuclear and non-nuclear power generating prospects complemented
technical assessments of nuclear energy programs in Latin America
and the Middle East. In anticipation of the needs of US nonprolifera-
tion policymakers, focused analyses were also prepared on the
bureaucratic politics of reprocessing in
'cooperation, security, and nonproliferation. A set of country
specific collection strategies were developed and a series of
conferences on proliferation in Northeast Asia, South Asia,
and Latin America were conducted for collectors, analysts, and
policymakers. In sum, nuclear proliferation intelligence has
not only improved the quality of analysis in 1978 but it has
also been building the basis fpr-- urther imnrnvament in 1979.
policy toward nuclear power, the politics of the International
Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation, and Spanish views of nuclear
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