LETTER TO ADMIRAL STANSFIELD TURNER FROM CHARLES W. DUNCAN, JR.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M00165A001800110018-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 18, 2004
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: May 2, 1977
• Content Type: LETTER

pproved For Rele TO 107/ ".UOM0U41ft 1 )18-5
THE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20301
May 2, 1977
Admiral Stansfield Turner
Director
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20505
Re: Heightened Intelligence Interest in
Soviet/Warsaw Pact Readiness Posture
SC 03548-77/1
Copy #1
Please find attached a copy of a report concerning
the above subject which I forwarded to Dr. Brzezinski
this afternoon. This was sent at his request following
a discussion concerning the approval of this month's
reconnaissance operations, where I cited verbally the
reasons for the increased European schedule.
Though the indicators are largely of a tactical
military nature, I recognize that the communication of
intelligence to the White House is your area of responsi-
bility; hence, I wanted you to have a copy of the report.
Attachment Charles W. Duncan, Jr.
7(2i87
AAp Med For
I&qq84
40P
4CRE
 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80M00165AO01800110018-5
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80MOO165AO01800110018-5
 App TWpj ; r Up-leTHT 2 8 S@ TW~qWl %1 6 110018-5
2 May 1977
MEMO FOR Dr. Brzezinski
Attached report forwarded per your
request.
Charles W. Duncan, Jr.
Attachment
Approved For Release 2004/Sec 1507/08ge f CCb~pp- Dp R0 001 0110018-5
1 on Pi-_-~
 I ur JE' i I Vivrui i-t
proved For ReleaseyQ~Q
6Yv'1800110018-5
d~ WWO
'W'
2 MAY 1977
SC 03548-77
TSU-1050/DN CIA cy #1
SUBJECT: Heightened intelligence interest in Soviet/Warsaw
Pact readiness posture (C) INFORMATION MEMORANDUM
(S) This memorandum sets forth the intelligence background
supporting the need for some freedom of action in scheduling
U.S. reconnaissance activity in the European theatre.
(S) There have been two developing situations of concern to
the U.S. intelligence community:
- Beginning in the summer of 1976, the series of East
German and Soviet actions and pronouncements indicating an
aggressive attitude towards western presence.in East Berlin.
-- chronology is provided as attachment 1
-- U. S. decisionmakers are aware of situation, both
from intelligence reporting and the Soviet demarche
to governments concerned.
- A coincidence of military exercise and mobilization
activity in the late April-early May time frame which could
shield Warsaw Pact preparations for contingency operations
-- while spring is an historic time for increased
activity, there is an unusual time-compression of
events in the late April-early May period (attach-
ment 2)
-- the two activities which have caused the greatest
uncertainty are the increased General Staff command-
and-control exercises, and the unknown nature of the
East German mobilization exercise scheduled for early
May
Ciassifizd 1'y
EXEMPT F'0M
SCHEOULv CF EXCU 3 i-VE 0Kui`fl 11 52
70 1 O DECLASSIFY ON E+ .......
t 4
Approved For Reap Q 0 4 / g 1A 8 8
14 1 Z"061915 X-- -
-
I %W c y N
 io: SECRET y~~~~
Approved For Release 2004/07/08: CIRDP8 5~100'1~00110018-5
(S) Against this general background, there have been periodic
peaks in our concern, caused by:
an unusual overlap in April of Yankee submarine patrols
in the Atlantic
- the presence of more. than 30 submarines in the Norwegian
and Barents Sea during the naval exercise in April
- low-reliability reports regarding movement of Soviet
divisions from the Sino-Soviet border .and presence.of;large
numbers of hidden tanks in East Germany
- start of the spring troop rotation prior to 1 May holidays.
(S) In a continuing series of meetings, of community analysts
and in continuing discussion with USEUCOM analysts, the
.prevailing conclusion has been, and remains, that there are
no indications of Warsaw Pact preparations for offensive action.
There is less certainty as to whether Moscow is orchestrating
some demonstration of increased military activity to comple-
ment the political activities surrounding their East Berlin
initiatives. .
(S) Our negative conclusions, however, do not diminish the
need for a collection osture which is at least equal to that
enjoyed in the past., *?he new national collection system is
not at present substituting for a sound all-source collection
strategy, of which peripheral airborne reconnaissance is an
important ingredient
(U) Coordination within OSD is not required.
Enclosures:
Chronology (TSU) 1 Cy
Chart (TSU) 1 Cy
Prepared by RADM W.D. ROBERTSON, X79773
Samuel V. Wilson
Lieutenant General, USA
Director
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80MOO165AO01800110018-5
TOP SECRET UMBRA
 k" LKL 1 WAUKA
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80M00165A000110018-5
RECENT SOVIET/GDR ACTIONS RELATIVE TO BERLIN
13 AUG 76: 13 BUSLOADS OF FRG CITIZENS ENROUTE TO BERLIN FOR A RALLY TURNED BACK BY
GDR PERSONNEL.
OCT 76: DISCONTINUANCE OF SPECIAL STATUS ID CARDS USED BY EAST BERLIN MEMBERS OF
GDR PARLIAMENT; DELEGATES NOW HAVE SAME PRIVILEGES AND VOTING RIGHTS AS
OTHER MEMBERS.
OCT 76: EAST BERLIN MAYOR APPOINTED CONCURRENTLY TO GDR COUNCIL OF MINISTERS.
8 NOV 76: GDR ANNOUNCED THAT TARIFFS WOULD BE INCREASED EFFECTIVE 1 FEB 77 FOR HAULING
ALLIED TRAINS BETWEEN FRG & WEST BERLIN. (GDR INFORMED MATTER SOLELY WITHIN
DISCRETION OF ALLIES AND USSR).
2 DEC 76: GDR POLICE AT EAST/WEST BERLIN CROSSING (CHECKPOINT CHARLIE) ISSUED ARM BANDS
READING "BORDER TROOPS OF THE GDR."
1 JAN 77: ONE-DAY GDR VISAS REQUIREMENT IMPOSED ON NON-GERMAN/NON-ALLIED VISITORS ENTER-
ING EAST BERLIN.
JAN 77: REMOVAL OF BORDER CHECKPOSTS BETWEEN EAST BERLIN AND THE GDR.
.11 JAN 77: ACCESS BY EAST GERMANS TO THE FRG MISSION IN EAST BERLIN BLOCKED BY GDR
SECURITY PERSONNEL FOR 24 HRS; SUBSEQUENT VISITS CLOSELY SCRUTINIZED,
19 JAN.77: SOVIET AMBASSADOR COMPLAINED THAT ALLIES, ESPECIALLY US, WERE ABUSING THEIR
RIGHT TO ENTER EAST BERLIN; PROTESTED THE NUMBER OF US PATROLS, AND THE
FREQUENT OESERVATION AND PHOTOGRAPHING OF SOVIET EMBASSY IN BERLIN.
21-24 JAN 77: DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF PERSONS-(MOSTLY FORMER GDR CITIZENS--
LEGAL EMIGRES & DEFECTORS) DENIED ENTRANCE TO EAST BERLIN.
7 FEB 77: REPORTS GDR PREPARING TO INCORPORATE INTO EAST BERLIN CONTIGUOUS PRECINCTS IN
THE GDR. (VIOLATES 1944 FOUR POWER AGREEMENT & 1971.QUADRAPARTITE AGREEMENT).
21 FEB 77: PUBLICATION OF GDR AIR REGULATIONS CONTROLLING FOREIGN OVERFLIGHTS BY MILITARY
AIRCRAFT AND CARGO PLANES CARRYING MILITARY SUPPLIES AND EQUIPMENT; PROHIBITION
OF RECONNAISSANCE BY THESE AIRCRAFTf,VERBAL GDR ASSURANCES TO ALLIES THAT
REGULATION DESIGNED TO CONTROL NORTH-SOUTH FLIGHTS BY SCANDINAVIANS TO THE
MEDITERRANEAN.)
22 FEB 77: PUBLIC GDR CONFIRMATION OF DISCONTINUANCE OF EAST BERLIN LEGAL GAZETTE. (HAD
NOT BEEN ISSUED SINCE PREVIOUS SEPTEMBER; OFFICIAL DOCUMENT PROMULGATED GDR
LAWS THAT HAD BEEN ADOPTED BY THE EAST BERLIN CITY COUNCIL.)
25 FEB 77: GDR-IMPOSED "ROAD TAX" ON NON-ALLIED DRIVERS ENTERING EAST BERLIN EFFECTIVE
1 MARCH -- SIMILAR REQUIREMENT ALREADY EXISTED IN THE GDR.
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80M00165AO01800110018-5
TOP SECRET UM R .A
 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80M00165A0000110018-5
9 MAR 77: GDR BORDER GUARDS ATTEMPTED TO DEAL WITH US FREIGHT. TRAIN COMMANDER DURING
2-HOUR DELAY AT POTSDAM.
TO MAR 77: SOVIET AMBASSADOR TO GDR REITERATED THAT QUADRAPARTITE AGREEMENT IS
RELEVANT ONLY TO WEST BERLIN AND THAT MILITARY RIGHTS OF 3 WESTERN POWERS
IN. THE "EASTERN PART OF THE CITY.'.. DOES NOT EXIST." MOSCOW SINCE STATED
THAT AMBASSADOR WAS MISQUOTED AND MERELY SAID "SUCH A PART OF THE CITY
-DOES NOT EXIST."
.10 MAR 77: SOVIET FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIALLY STATED THAT ALLIES NEVER ENJOYED ANY
"INHERENT EXTRA-TREATY RIGHTS IN BERLIN.
'11 MAR 77: FRENCH TROOP TRAIN DETAINED WHILE GDR PERSONNEL DEMANDED PAPERWORK, WHICH
TRAIN COMMANDER REFUSED TO PRESENT.
73 MAR 77: 1 MAY DEADLINE IMPOSED BY THE GDR ON THE TRANSIT OF EMPTY NON-DEGASSIFIED
OIL BARGES TRANSITING EAST BERLIN WHILE ENROUTE FROM WEST BERLIN TO FRG.
DEADLINE SUBSEQUENTLY SUSPENDED.
29-30 MAR 77: NU1EROUS AIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE BERLIN CONTROL ZONE. SOVIETS ADMITTED
ERROR ON THE 29TH BUT DENIED PLANES WERE SOVIET ON THE 30TH.
14-APR 77: 2 FLAG PATROL INCIDENTS:ATTEMPTED DETENTION OF A PATROL THAT HAD BECOME
ENMESHED IN AN OFFICIAL MOTORCADE; SEPARATE PATROL, WHILE OBSERVING GDR
TROOPS ENGAGED IN PHYSICAL TRAINING, WAS SURROUNDED BY GDR TROOPS WHO STRUCK
THE AUTO WITH RIFLE BUTTS.
15 APR 77: DEMARCHES DELIVERED TO US, UK, FRANCE DEMANDING CESSATION IN "THE NEAREST;
TERM" OF ALLIED FLAG PATROLS IN EAST BERLIN.
18 APR 77: HELICOPTER OF UNKNOWN NATIONALITY CROSSED ABOUT 500 METERS INTO THE US
SECTOR FROM GDR AT 100 METER ALTITUDE. LAST SOVIET OVERFLIGHT OF WEST
BERLIN OCCURRED IN 1965.
TCp SECRET UMS'
Approved For ReI~aO 04/S6 80 Ill * >
 AppWyF~r R~,?.Q0~~08~y4F~0165A001800110018-5
...................
CpM PA2 5o IAIAOSAUI pAC'r
~1
6P,20Z MiuTAR-Y AcTWITIEs
1973
6EL #L'TAFr
6M QAL STAFF'
~7v tIC, 4LeeT
3 YA l K E LASS SC
im We
wAe.eAtu PAC-r
AIP. Etf EX
LRA AtT1C
FL(G'4T5
P `gO
Tt TAT1O
iA GEE?MA- 4
ATt
1975
NoN6 '
NOME
MOMS
A421 L 6UcfUulV=)
WNe
JAw-API
A9,2- MAY
Joy.
1977
NEAP. &: JT(Ac1S
5t3 AM `77
APP.tL-
APie(L.-
APRIL
AA21LoaMA'1z
.tAm- APE.
APR- MAY2
MAY 7
, c m PAaA6 " 5cze , sew op- VURATW
roved For Release 0~4i0~08 - P 0
5 KVtlr 5A m 'L UMBRA
V (A 2- Wria
NQ rye
MA2-MANY
MAY- JL* E
AP2IL
JAN - APE.
APR- MAY
NE
NoNI