MEMORANDUM FOR: DIRECTOR, UNITED STATES INFORMATION AGENCY FROM JOHN A. MCCONE

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CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9
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August 14, 2002
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September 13, 1963
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Approved For Release 2002/08/28~(~I -,R~~80B0167,~R0029001800~`-~ ~ ~"~~~~ j 5X1 5X1 t1r~~ti~ ' #ivi:~ ems!-. Hi ctor n ~ ligsnce3 2X1 I tl~I/ jr (~.3 Sept 633 ~istr u vn: ~'tri.g & 1 - Addressee 1 - ~I ~ - ~$ ~r,~asic '~ ~ - /I ehrono ~. -~ CA staff State Dept. review com leted Ap~roved For Release 2002/08/28 ~IA-R P80B01676R002900180005-9 ~~$ T 76R CLASSIFIED CO ENTIAL SECRET CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP TO NAME AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS 1 Actin DCI - ~.. 2 DCI ~ b'~ 3 _ DD I S~ ~'' 4 5 G ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPARE REPLY APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION COMMENT FILE RETURN CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE Remarks Nate: There is no record in Exec Registry of prior receipt of reports in Agency. To 3: For preparation of response. ~i e Suspense: 9 Sept ember ~. ) ~ ~`-~~~ ? ~ ~ ~ g FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER FROM: NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE NO. DATE O/Executive Director 3 Au b3 25X1 FORM N0. 237 Use previous editions (40) Z-bi L / * U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 19fii 0-587282 OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR UNITED STATES INFORMATION AGENCY ~ ~ ~i ~ 1 Approved F~ elease 2002/08/28 :CIA-RDP80B01 ~ R0029 ~e~i~sistzy `~ ;_ -~. ~?.- August 28, 1963 MEMORANDUM FOR: The Honorable John A. McCone Director Central Intelligence Agency USIA recently transmitted to your Agency copies of the attached. reports which summarize some of the overall indications STAT from the worldwide survey Other reports of this series will be sent as they become available. We would like to call these reports to your personal attention. because we feel that the findings are very instructive in yielding a psychological balance sheet, so to speak, of strengths and weak- ne~ses in .America's image abroad. The indications have been brought tq tl~e attention of the President. ~' We feel that much of the value of this kind of audit of world opfnion lies in trend measurements of changes over time. Accord- ingly we are presently planning a second worldwide soundin in the Fall, timed to field a year end re ort. Edward R. Murrow Director Attachments 1. Some Indications of Worldwide Public Opinion Toward the U.S. and the USSR - R-141-63 (R) 2. Some Worldwide Attitudes Toward disarmament and Nuclear Issues - _ ~~~ 3=_ , x;423 ~ ~ ~ .. ,:. , CONFIDENTIAL ATTACHMENT M~R: A~tachments being Approved For Rele~sel?dODn/~28:CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2002/08/28 :CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Group 5 Classification to be reviewed two years after date of publication .Research and Reference Service SOME INDICATIONS. OF WORLDWIDE PUBLIC OPINION TOWARD THE U. S. AND THE USSR R-141-63 (R) July, 1963 This is a research report, not a statement of Agency policy CON NTIAL Survey Research Studies Approved For Release 2002/08/28 :CIA-RDP80B01676~8fl~2fl0~,0,Q65r$eries Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP B01676R002900180005-9 CONFID IAL An initial limited effort toward the measurement of "World Opinion".conducted in 15 countries in the wake of the Cuban crisis reveals predominantly favorable general orientations toward the UaS., and despite marked gains following the peaceful resolution of the Cuban confrontation predominantly unfavorable general orientations toward the USSR, however, comparisons of Ua5o to USSR standing in some major realms of competition reveal a far lase favorable pictured In all 15 countries surveyed most with opinions see the UoB, ahead in economic strengthq But only in eight countries is the UoSo predominantly judged ahead in total military strength, and in only four is the UoSa judged ahead in military strength in nuclear weaponse Four others were divided on this issue and seven predominantly viewed the USSR as the stronger4 In space standing the U,S, leads the USSR in only one of the 15 countries surveyedo In science the it>S, fares better l~nat enjoys a really substantial lead in only threeo In view of these considerable indications of Soviet strength it iffi not surprsising that not all are convinced that tine UeSo is the wave of the futu~?e in preeminence as a world powers The prevailing judgment in nine ~.aeas is that the U>84 will end up the strangest in an extended period of competition without warn But in two countries opinions are divided on this index of long-range confidence, and in four areas the UoSo is predominantly seen as running behind the USSR or Communist Chinas Finally, despite favorable general orientations, willingness to side with the UoSo is far from general in the countries surveyed, While there is predominant willingness to line up with the U,So vie-a-vis Russia in eight areas, in three of these the margin is thino And in the remainiaag six areas preference for non~alignament plus scattered support for flea USSR outweighs allegiance to the UoSo 1 For some postmCuban trend indications of UoSe and USSR standing see R-99-b3 "Trends in West ]~uropean l~atimates of U,S, and Soviet Strength", and R-122-6~ ""Canrrent Trends in papa a Public Opinion Toward the Uo8 0 and the USSR"o CONP - NTIAL i Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA- 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONF NTIAL The present report, and a number to fallow, mark an initial limited step toward establishing periodic soundings of that intangible but important entity "World Opinion". The ultimate goal is to block out for general ld.S. government guidance the broad picture of world-wide senti- ment about the U.S. and major issues of international relations. It will remain the function of other specific studies to fill in details as re- quired on issues of importance as they arise, and in countries of parti- cular significance. This initial effort reflects more an aspiration than an achievement since the present extent of coverage is far from adequate to provide valid regional and world-wide generalizations. Africa is not as yet covered, the representation is particularly sketchy in the Near Bast, and in many etr-untriea it is only feasible at the present time to sample capita3. or major cities, rather than the national populations, (Details on the present samplings may be found in an appendix.) It is hoped that future efforts will pro- ;gressively embody wider representation. In the meantime, the indications must be read, of course, with limitations of coverage in mind, This particular set of soundings was taken in early 1963 in the wake of the Cuban crisis -- an event which surely qualifies as one of the major points of reference in post-war international relations. Other international dedelopments were also part of the context of events conditioning the present survd.y,edgethe Sing-Indian conflict, the Sino-Soviet disagreements and the Western disagreements about NATO and the Common Market. In keeping with the broad purposes of this service, the reportage is both brief and broadQ The accent is upon the tabular presentation of coun- try and regional comparisons, the details of which readers of varied exper- tise and interest may interpret more fully. Survey measurements constitute, of course, only one technique of exploration to be considered along with other sources of information in drawing conclusions. As an aid in-ordering and consolidating the indications on various questions a net favorable index is provided as a supplement to the usual tabulation of alternative responses and no opinion. This index is obtained by subtracting the percentage of unfavorable responses from the percentage of favorable responses and yieslds a quick unitary index of the size and direction of predominant sentiments "No Opinion" is treated as neither favorable nor unfavorable. This index is presented only as a convenience, not as a substitute for the original figures which yield a more comprehen- sive picture of the findings. Approved For Release 2002108/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA- P80B01676R002900180005-9 CONF ENTIAL Since the figures presented are based upon samples they are subject to a range of chance variation which increases as the size of sample diminishes. Little should be made of small differences, therefore, in the tables that follow, since they are often not reliably beyond chance variation and even where reliable are of little material significance. Attention should focus rather on the larger differences whose reliability is thereby more strongly established and which, because o? their size, are more clearly of policy or program significance. The generalizations presented in the text endeavor to take these statistical considerations into account. Readers desiring more precise information on sampling or other technical details about the present series of surveys are invited to consult the Research and Reference Service, USIA. Tn the interest of simplicity, and in order to keep the present ''World Opinion" paper within manageable limits, no figures have been in- cluded bearing upon trend changes in opinion over time. Such trend indi- cations, when available, are presented in country or regional papers. CON DENTIAL Approved For Release 2002/0, /28 : CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-R 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONFI NTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOREWORD I. Some General Orientations Toward the.U.S. and the USSR Pane General Opinion of the U,S. l General Opinion of the USSR 3 Agreement of Basic Interests with the U.S. 3 Agreement of Basic Interests with the USSR 4 Confidence in U.S. Leadership S Consistency of U.S. Words with Actions 6 Consistency of Soviet Words with Action@~ 7 II. Some Comparisons of U.S. vs. USSR Standing in Maior Areas of Competition Total Economic Strength 8 Total Military Strength 9 Military Strength in Nuclear Weapons 10 Conventional Miiit~ry Strength 11 Space Standing 12 Science Standing 13 Who is Seen as the Wave of the Future 14 Siding with the U.S. 15 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA- 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONE NTIAL I. Some General Orientations Toward the U.S. and the USSR General Opi:nian of the U.S'. It has often been said that great nations cannot hope to be liked. That such a thesis is open to challenge, at least in some senses, is the consistent indication from USIA worldwide surveys over the past decade. With rare exceptions general good opinion of the U.3. -- for whatever significance it has -- has clearly predominated over unfavorable feelings in the countries surveyed -- usually by very substantial margins. The most recent worldwide soundings, taken in the wake of the Cubart crisis, are no exception in this resgect, with levels of net favorable feelings (good opinion less bad opinion) ranging from a remarkable 88 per cent in Bangkok to no lower than 36 per cent in France despite current sharpened differences on policy. "Please use this card to tell me your feelings about various countries. (CARD) How about ...?" WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable V. good opinion Good Neither good Bad V. bad onin. nor bad opin. opin> onin. No opinion No. of cases West Germany 75 24~ 52~ 177? 1~ *~ 6 >.100?le (1202j Italy 68 30 41 12 2 1 14 (1200) Great Britain 44 12 42 26 9 1 10 (1186) France 36 6 40 34 8 2 LO (1200) LATIN A1~EI~ICA Mexico City 71 15 58 16 1 1 9 ( 3$9) Buenos Aires 68 2S 45 14 1 1 14 ( 481) Caracas 66 26 44 16 3 1 10 ( 401) Rio de Janeiro 41 13 32 21 2 2 30 ( 392) NEAR EAST Delhi 71 31 41 9 1 - 18 ( 500) Tehran 60 25 45 17 5 5 3 ( 500) FAR EAST Bangkok 88 36 53 10 1 * * ( 497) Australia 81 34 49 13 2 - 2 ( 830) Saigon 79 28 53 13 2 - 4 ( 493) Singapore 57 13 49 27 4 1 6 ( 498) Japan 44 4 42 33 2 * 19 ( 995) * Asterl~ks in tables indicate leas than half of one per centi minus signs zero per cent? Approved For Release 2002/08/28; ~~80~01676R002900180005-9 1 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-R 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONF ENTIAL General Opinion of the USSR .,, In contrast, unfavorable feelings toward the USSR have generally predominated in USIA surveys and only in occasional instances have been outweighed by favorable sentiment. In the most recent measurements following the Cuban crisis only in New Delhi and Tehran of the 15 countries or cities surveyed did general good opinion of the USSR achieve a clear favorable predominance. Some predominance of favorable opinion of the USSR has been character- istic in past surveys in non-aligned India, and moat of:~a=losa~~rhich ~?~llowed' the:~.Chinese' invas'iZin.~bf .~ndia~}ias bi;nr~~a~been.t,zdcoupad:. The present survey is the first in Tehran and reveals predominantly favorable attitudes toward the USSR in numerous respects, as will be reported in this World Opinion :;series and separately. "Please use this card to tell me your feelings about various countries. (CARD) How about ...?" OPINION ABOUT THE USSR Net V. good Good Neither good Bad V. bad No No. of WESTERN EUROPE Favorable opinion oain< nor bad opin. o~in. opin. opinion cases France - 7 47. Italy -15 4 Great Britain -22 1 West Germany -60 LATIN AMERICA Rio de Janeiro -6 2 Mexico City -26 3 Buenos Aires -28 1 Caracas -33 6 NEAR EAST Tehran 49 25 Delhi 37 6 FAR EAST Singapore - 3 5 .Japan -15 Bangkok, -22 2 Australia -36 2 Saigon -80 19% 35% 21~ 9% 12 ..100% (1200) 15 24 22 12 23 (1200) 13 32 25 11 18 (1186) 4 23 35 29 9 (1202) 13 17 6 15 47 ( 392) 13 26 33 9 16 ( 389) 13 18 29 13 26 ( 481) 12 16 30 21 15 ( 401) 36 19 7 5 8 ( SOC3) 39 25 7 1 22 ( 500) 16 41 17 7 14 ( 498) 8 43 20 3 26 (-995) 12 38 26 10 12 ( 497) 14 22 33 19 10 ( 830) - 1 22 58 19 ( 493) Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-R 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONF NTIAL Agreement of Basic Interests with the U.S. ... As an index of general pro-American orientation possibly more significant than friendly feeling, as registered on the earlier question, is what might be termed fellow-feeling -- the extent of perceived agree- ment between the basic interests of one's own country and those of another nation. This more stringent test of general attitude toward the U.B. reveals strength in most of the countries measured, but distinct weaknesses in some, Weakness on this index has long been present in France, a situation which has been aggravated by the current disagreements on the future of Europe. The low levels of fellow-feeling in Latin America compared to high levels of friendly feeling provide serious food for thoughC, and could suggest that much of U.B. policy if not seen as adverse to Latin America interests, may be seen as largely irrelevant. "In your opinion, are the basic interests of (SURVEY COUNTRY) and those of the LI.S. very much in agreement, fairly well in agreement, rather different, or very different?"'1 WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable Very much in a r~,ee. Wes t>.Geru~any 71 31~ Italy 51 27 4reat Britain 50 19 France 6 6 LATIN At~RICA Mexico City 16 12 Caracas 0 13 Buenos Aires - 1 19 Rio de Janeiro -11 6 NEAR EAST Delhi 52 20 Tehran 9 l$ FAR EAST Bangkok 92 44 Australia 87 46 Singapore 35 14 Saigon 34 21 .?span 28 6 ~' In Mexico question read ... "interest of Fairly well in agree. Rather different Very diff_o_ No opinion No. of cases 50X 8~ 2~ 9..100 (1202) 39 10 5 19 (1200) 51 15 5 10 (1186} 37 28 9 20 (1200) 41 17 20 10 ( 389} 31 15 29 12 ( 401) 18 28 10 25 ( 481) 21 14 24 35 ( 392) 41 6 3 30 ( 500) 34 15 28 5 ( 5aQ). 51 3 * 2 ( 497} 47 5 1 1 ( 830) 48 19 8 11 ( 498) 39 15 11 14 ( 493} 40 16 Z 3b ~ 995) xican and North American people." Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RL~P80B01676R002900180005-9 CONE NTIAL Agreement of Basic Interests with the USSR ... If the U.S. has some weaknesses in fellow-feeling the USSR has a great deal more. In none of the 15 areas surveyed, including New Delhi and Tehran which were high in friendly feeling, does the view point pre- dominate that one's own country's interests are at least fairly well in agreement with those of the USSR. "In your opinion, are the basic interests of (SURVEY COUNTRY) and those of the USSR very much in agreement, fairly well in agreement, rather different, or very different?"1 Net Very much Fairly well Rather Very No No. of WESTERN EUROFE Favorable in agr?e. in agree. different Jiff. opinion cases France -42 2~ 16~ 38X 222 22..100 (1200) Italy -50 2 11 31 32 24 (1200) Great Britain -55 1. 14 3$ 32 1S (1186) West Germany -87 - 1 21 67 11 (1202) LATIN AMERICA Rio de .laneiro -43 3 5 38 13 41 ( 392) Buenos Aires -65 2 2 62 7 27 ( 481) 1Kexico City -7$ - 4 20 62 14 ( 389) Caracas -80 - 1 8 73 18 ( 401) NEAR BAST T1?lhi - 5 6 24 27 $ 35 ( 500) Tehran -13 9 28 24 26 13 (( 500) FAR EAST :?span -52 - 3 36 19 42 ( 995) Singapore -66 1 7 37 37 18 ( 498) Bangkok -71 - 8 42 37 13 ( 497) Saigon -72 - * 3 69 28 ( 493) Australia -84 1 4 31 58 6 ( 830) 1 In Mexico question read ... "interest of Mexican and Russian people." Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP 0B01676R002900180005-9 CONFI TIAL Confidence in U.S. Leadership ... How next does the U.S. fare in the area of international leader- ship? The indication from the latest surveys in the aftermath of the Cuban crisis is that favorable attitudes predominate in 13 out of the 15 areas surveyed. The exceptions are Tehran where opinions are divided, and France where unfavorable attitudes prevail. "Haw much confidence do you have in the ability of the U.B. to provide wise leadership for the West in dealing with present world problems -- very great, considerable, not very much, or very little?"1 WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable Very rR eat Consid- erable Not very much Very little No opinion No. of cases West Germany 66 37~ 38~ 89. 1~ 16 ..100 (1202) Italy 46 24 37 10 5 24 (1200) Great Britain 1$ 16 35 25 $ 16 (1186) France -l6 5 28 32 17 18 (1200) LATIN A1rKERICA Buenos Aires 47 37 25 9 6 23 ( 481) Caracas 28 26 31 17 12 14 ( 401) Mexico City 27 4U 15 18 10 17 ( 389) Rio de Janeiro 20 12 27 12 7 42 ( 392) NEAR FAST Delhi 31 15 28 6 6 45 ( S00) Tehran - 3 12 30 29 i6 1.3 ( 5.00) FAR EAST Australia 54 27 47 14 6 6 ( 830) Baigon 49 33 38 17 5 7 ( 493) Bangkok 47 22 50 23 2 3 ( 497) Singapore 21 12 38 20 9 21 ( 498) Japan 13 5 32 19 5 39 ( 995) In Australia question read " ...ability of the U.S. leadere to handle present- day world problems wisely ..." Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-R 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONE` NTIAL Consistency of U.S. Words with Actions ... Tested next on a factor related to leadership -- consistency of word with deed -- the U.S. appears to have a favorable net balance in ali but two of the areas surveyed. French views are divided on U.S. credibility, and for reasons that need exploration Tehran .views. are . clearly negative in the net. In some of the other countries where the net favorable reading is positive but low the situation also invites further study. '"Would you say that what the United States does in world affairs generally agrees with what it says, or that its actions differ from its words too often?" WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable West Germany 56 Great Britain Italy 3;5.m.=~ 29 France 0 LATIN AMERICA Buenos Aires 26 Mexico City 16 Caracas 15 Rio de Janeiro 12 NEAR EAST T~elhi 38 Tehran -20 FAR EAST Bangkok 82 Saigon 73 Australia 53 Singapore 41 Japan LO 71'7. 58 51 34 47 50 47 33 52 34 86 79 71 64 34 15~ 14 ..100% (1202) 23 19 (11$6) 22 27 (1200) 34 32 (1200) 21 32 ( 481) 34 16 ( 389) 32 21 ( 401) 21 46 ( 392) 14 34 ( 500) 54 12 ( 500) 4 10 ( 497) 6 15 ( 493) 18 11 ( 830) 23 13 ( 498) 24 42 ( 995) No No. of Agrees Differs opinion cases Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-R 0B01676R002900180005-9 CONF NTIAL Consistency of Soviet Words with Actions... The Soviet reputation for consistency of word and deed is negative in the net in all the 15 area: surveyed, even to a degree in New Delhi and Tehran despite predominantly favorable general opinions of the Soviet Union. "ktow about the USER -- would you say that what Soviet Russia does in world affairs generally agrees with what it says, or that its actions differ from its wordB too often?" WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable Agrees Differs No opinion No. of cases France -28 19~ 47~ 34 ..100X (1200) Italy -35 15 50 35 (1200) Great Britain -41 19 6U 21 (1186) west Germany -70 5 75 20 (1202> LATIN AMERICA Ri,o de Janeiro -18 14 32 54 ( 392) Caracas -35 18 53 29 ( 401) Buenos Aires -40 7 47 46 ( 481) Mexico City -60 11 71 18 ( 989) NEAR EASiT Delhi - 9 26 35 39 ( 500) Tehran -19 32 51 17 ( '500) FAR EAST Singapore -19 30 49 21 ( 498) Japan -29 11 4(? 49 ( 995) Australia -51 lb 67 17 ( 830) Bangkok -52 11 63 2b ( 497) Saigon -,70 1 71 28 ( 493) Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B 6768002900180005-9 CONFIDENT L II. Same Comparisons of U.S. vs. USSR Standing in Major areas of Competition The indications from a series of questions may now be considered, which are designed to ascertain how far the Soviet challenge to U.S. primacy has made inroads into world opinion. Total Economic Strength ... Soviet efforts to faster the image of a strong Soviet economy have not as yet made any really appreciable inroads into U.S. standing in this domain, The U.S. leads in total economic strength by large to very large margins in all the areas surveyed including the two -- New Delhi and Tehran -- which were predominantly favorable in-their general opinion of the USSR. "All things considered, which country do you think is ahead in total economic strength at the present time -- the U.S. ar the USSRZ" WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable U.S. USSR Neither/ E ug,al No Opinion No. of cases _ West Germany 81 83?~ 29G 4'~ 11 ..100% ;(1202) Italy 63 69 6 4 21 (1200) France 61 69 8 6 17 (1200) Great Britain 47 57 10 3 30 (1186) LATIN AMERICA Mexico City 77 81 4 - 15 ( 389) Caracas 71 78 7 1 14 ( 401) Buenos Aires 60 66 6 5 23 ( 481) Rio de Janeiro 37 46 9 1 44 ( 392) NEAR_EAST Tehran 6~, 81 12 2 5 ( 500} Delhi 63 68 5 1 26 ( 500) FAR EAST Saigon 90 90 * 2 8 ( 493) Bangkok 87 89 2 3 6 ( 497) Singapore 70 76 6 $ : 10 ( 498) Australia 62 70 $ 7 15 ( 830) Japan 56 63 7 6 24 ( 995) Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP B01676R002900180005-9 CONFIDE IAL Total Military Strength ... Worldwide opinion is leas favorable in respect to total military strength. In eight of the 1$ areas surveyed the U.9. is pzedominantly seen as ahead; but in four areas -- France, Buenos Aires, Japan, and Singapore -- opinions are rather evenly divided; and in three areas -- Great Britain, Tehran and Australia -- the USSR is more often judged ahead in total military might. "All things considered, which country do you think is ahead in tatal military strength at the present time -- the U.S. or the USSR?" WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable U.S. USSR Neither/ Equal No Opinion No. of cases West Germany 34 50~ 16% 18% 16 ..100 (1202) Italy 20 39 19 14 28 (1200) France - 4 24 28 19 29 (1200) Great Britain -15 26 41 7 26 (1186) LATTN AMERICA l~texica City 18 50 32 2 16 ( 389) Ria de Janeiro 15 32 17 5 46 ( 392) Caracas 13 38 25 17 20 ( 401) Buenos Aires 6 25 19 18 38 ( 481) NEAR BAST Delhi 20 39 19 8 34 { 500). Tehran -16 33 49 5 13 ( 500) FAR EAST 5a3gon 5$ 59 1 20 20 ( 493) Bangkok 47 60 13 13 14 (.497) Japan 3 31 28 13 28 ( 995) Singapore - 2 28 30 22 20 ( 498) Australia -12 25 37 14 24 ( 830) Approved For Release 2002/OS/28 : CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RD 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONFIDE AL Military Strength in Nuclear Weapons ... Of the two major components of total military strength -- nuclear weapons vs. troops and non-nuclear weapons -- it appears to be the former that poses the greater problem for the U.S. military image, In military strength in nuclear weapons only four of the 15 areas surveyed predominantly judge the U.S. ahead, four others are close to evenly divi- ded, and in seven the USSR is more often judged as being the stronger. Why two such close and presumably well-informed allies ae Great Britain and Australia should be predominantly inclined to see the U.S. behind the USSR in military strength, both in nuclear and conventional components, particularly invites further study. "All things considered, which country do you think is ahead in military strength in nuclear weapons at the present time -- the U.S. or the USSR?" Net bl S U USSR Neither/ Equal No Opinion No. of cases WESTERN EUROPE e Favora . . West Germany 35 46~ 11% 267. 17 ..100 (1'L02) Italy 3 28 25 18 29 (1200) France - 5 24 29 20 27 (1200) Great Britain - 8 26 34 10 30 (1186) LATIN AMERICA Mexico City 12 46 34 4 5 16 47 ( 392) ( Ria de Janeiro 0 24 24 Buenos Aires -11 18 29 20 33 ( 481) Caracas -12 23 35 22 20 ( 401) NEA., R EAST Delhi S 32 27 7 34 ( 500) Tehran -32 26 58 4 12 ( 500) FAR EAST Saigon 56 59 3 20 1$ ( 493) Bangkok 38 50 12 26 12 ( 497) Japan -19 20 39 12 29 E 995) Singapore -24 21 45 16 18 ( 498) Australial -25 20 45 17 18 ( 830) 1 Tn Australia query was phrased "...i atomic and other nuclear weapons..." CON ENTIAL Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-R 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONFTD IAL Conventional Military Strength ,.. In conventional military strength -- troops and non-nuclear weapons -- the U.S. appears to fare better, with the viewpoint prevailing in nine areas that the U.S. is ahead, fn three that the USSR is ahead, and in three close to evenly divided. "All things considered, which country do you think in troops and non-nuclear weapons at the present is ahead time -- the USSR?" h e U.S. or t Net S U USSR Neither/ Equal No Opinion No. of cases WESTERN EUROPE Favorable . . Italy 19 3$% 19~ 9% 34 ..i00% (1200) France - 2 26 2$ 13 33 X1200} 2 West Germany -15 25 40 14 21 ) (120 Great Britain -20 20 40 7 33 (1186) LATIN AMERICA Mexico City 23 51 2$ - 21 ( 389) Caracas 22 42 20 13 25 ( 401) Rio de Janeiro 20 35 15 3 47 ( 3g2) Buenos Aires 5 25 20 10 45 ( 481.) NEAR EAST D~;elhi 16 35 19 5 41 ( 500) Tehran 3 40 37 4 19 ( 500) FAR EAST Saigon 30 42 12 20 26 ( 493) Bangkok 22 45 23 14 18 ( 497} Japan 18 33 15 12 40 ( 995) Singapore 14 38 24 14 24 ( 49$) Australia -10 25 35 14 26 ( 830) Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RC~80B01676R002900180005-9 CONFIDE IAL Space Standing ... In the 15 areas covered in the present early 1963 surveys only in one, Saigon, does the opinion prevail that the U.S. is ahead in space developments. Although in a few areas opinions are not far from even- ly divided, in most instances the USSR is seen in the van by large to very large margins, '`'All things considered, which country do you think is ahead in space developments at the present time -- the U.S. or the USSR?" Net ble F S U USSR Neither/ Equal No Opinion No. of cases WESTERN EUROPE avora . . West Germany - 6 29% 35~ 22~ 14 ..LOO;r {1202) Italy -34 14. 48 12 26 (1200) Great Britain -46 13 59 8 20 (1186) France -63 5 68 13 14 (1200) LATIN AMERICA Mexico City -10 36 46 3 15 ( 389) Rio de Janeiro -22 18 40 6 36 ( 392) Buenos Aires -35 10 45 20 25 ( 481) Caracas -37 16 53 18 13 ( 401) NEAR EAST Delhi -45 11 56 5 28 ( 500) Tehran. -89 4 93 1 3 ( 500) FAR EAST Saigon 18 35 17 26 22 ( 493) Bangkok - 8 29 37 29 5 ( 497) Australia -55 11 66 12 11 ( 830) Japan -63 6 69 7 18 ( 995) Singapore -75 3 78 11 8 ( 498) Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP~0B01676R002900180005-9 CONFIDE Science Standing ... Tn science generally the U.S. fares better but enjoys a really substantial lead in only three areas of the 15 surveyed. "A11 things considered, which country do you think is ahead in scientific development at the present time -- then U.S. or the USSR?" WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable U.S. files t Germany 47 58~, Tta1y 4 31 Great Britain -11 26 France -l3 23 LATIN Al~lERICA Mexico City 8 44 Buenos Aires 7 30 Rio de Janeiro 5 29 Caracas 2 35 NEAR EAST Tehran 11 49 Delhi 2 33 FAR EAST Saigon 40 48 Bangkok 24 44 Japan - 5 29 Australia -12 26 Singapore -14 29 Neither/ Equal No Opinion No. of cases 16% l5 ..L00~ (1202) 13 29 (1200) 10 27 (1186) 19 22 (1200) 2 18 ( 389) 20 27 ( 48i) 7 40 (-392) 17 1S ( 40.1) 4 9 ( 500) 8 28 ( 500) 23 Z1 ( 493) 30 6 ( 497) 12 2.5 ( 995) 18 18 ( 830) 14 14 ( 498) 11?~ 27 37 36 36 23 24 33 38 31 8 20 34 38 43 Approved For Release 2002/08/28": CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA- 80B01676R002900180005-9 CONF NTIAL In view of the considerable impressions of Soviet strength in the preceding comparisons, it is not surprising that not all are convinced that the U.S. is the wave of the future in preeminence as a world power, 7~he prevailing judgment in nine areas is that the U.S. will end up the strongest in an extended period of competition without war. But in two countries opinions are divided on this crucial index of long-range con- fidence, and in four areas the U.S. is predominantly seen as running be- hind either the USSR or Communist China. Moreover, the significance of the divided or adverse sentiment is underscored when it is observed that it encompasses such important countries as France, Great Britain, Japan and Australia. Also significant in the indications below is the growing thrust of Communist China, In not less than 3 areas -- France, Australia, and Singapore, about as many see Communist China as the strongest power 25 years hence as cite flee U.S. or the USSR. "If the T.S., the USSR, and China settle down to competition without war for tine next twenty or twenty-five years, which of the three do you think will end up as the strongest?"1 WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable U.S. USSR China All Egua_1 No Opinion No. of cases West Germany 46 59~ 8?~ 5~ 9~ 19 ..1007? (1202) Italy 17 3$ 16 5 12 29 (1200) Great Britain - 1 31 23 9 6 31 (1186) France -19 14 17 16 16 37 (1200) LATI~1 AI~dERICA Mexico City 31 58 22 5 2 13 ( 389) Buenos Aires 17 39 18 4 - 39 ( 4$1) Rio de Janeiro 17 37 13 7 4 39 ( 392) Caracas 8 37 23 6 5 29 ( 401) NEAR T~AS~ Delhi 26 46 18 2 2 32 ( 500) Tehran -34 23 47 10 7 14 ( 500) FARFAR ~AS'T Saigon 52 58 2 4 10 26 ( 493) Baxxgkok 46 62 10 6 9 13 ( 497) .Tapan - 4 23 24 3 4 46 ( 9.95) Singapore -1G 21 20 17 24 18 ( 49$) Australia -19 22 21 20 11 26 ( 830) In Australia question read +'If the U. ., Russia and Communist China settle dawn to peaceful co-existence -- this, competition in trade, without Approved For Release 2002/08/2~~~~B01676R002900180005-9 14 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP B01676R002900180005-9 CONFID IAL Siding with the U.S. ... Impressions of Communist strength, both now and in the future, may nat be among the Least of the factors engendering a disinclination to side with the U.S. in the cold war. In any case despite high levels of friendly feeling and considerable fellow feeling of interests in agree- ment, willingness to side with the U. The somewhat less inclusive and perhaps more precise concept of general nuclear disarmament appeals to the large majority everywhere surveyed, from almost 100 per cent in Italy and France down to the order of two out of three in Rio de Janeiro. "What about nuclear disarmament? Would you favor or not favor the abolition of nuclear weapons throughout the world?"' Except in Delhi and Tehran, asked only of those who did not indicate approval of general and complete disarmament.)1 Net ble r F or Fa Oppose No n Opinio No . of cases WESTERN EURAPE a avo v _ _ Italy 95 96% 1% 3 x,..100% (1200} France 93 95 2 3 (1200) West Germany 80 84 4 12 (1202) Great Britain 75 84 9 7 (11$6) LATIN AMERICA Caracas 83 90 7 3 ( 401) Mexico City 82 87 5 8 ( 389) Buenos Aires 74 84 10 6 ( 481) Rio de Janeiro 50 65 15 20~' ( 392) NEAR EAST Tehran Delhi FARFAR BAST 73 68 77 72 4 3 19 25 ( 500) (' 50#7) Singapore 77 84 ` _ 7 9 (`'498) Saigon 77 79 2 19 ( 493) Australia 2 71 81 10 9 ( 830) 995 Japan 70 71 1 28 ) ( Bangkok 61 76 15 '~ ( 497) 1 This question procedure assumes that approval of the whole -- complete disarmament -- includes approval of the part -- nuclear disarmament. In some instances this may not be true, and to this extent is a limita- tion on the. figures shown. 2 In Australia, question was phrased: "How would you feel about an agree- ment to abolish atomic and other nuclear arms? Would you favor ar op- pose a worldwide agreement to abolish al nuclear arms?'" CONF NTIAL Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 ' Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RD~0B01676R002900180005-9 Would Oomplete Disarmament Require an International Police ]Forge? ... Among those favoring general and complete disarmament the viewpoint everywhere prevails that such a state of affairs would require an international organisation with its own police force. "Do you think that general and complete disarmament would or would not require an international organisation with its own police force?" (Asked of those favoring general and complete disarmament) WESTERN EtJRC?PE Would require Would not require Not asked No No. of oyinion cases France 52% 9% 20% 19~ .,100% {i200) Italy 50 11 16 23 (120U~. w~~t Germany 47 9 30 14 (1202) great Britain 43 4 44 9 (1186) LATIN Ai~$RICA Buenos Aires 54 4 34 8 ( 481) Mexico City 45 18 29 8 ( 389) Oaracas 43 20 30 7 ( 401). Rio de Janeiro 37 11 15 37 ( 392) NEAR EAST Tehran 65 7 23 5 ( ~~pa Delhi 39 3 46 12 ( 500) FAR EAST Singapore 49 8 38 5 ( 498) Saigon 37 2 59 2 ( 493) Japan 3~ 4 52 10 ( 995) Bangkok 27 7 64 2 ( 497} Australia 25 12 59 4 ( 830) Approved For Release 2002/08/ Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RD~B01676R002900180005-9 CO ENTIAL II. Some Reactions to More 9~pecific Proposals Arms_Control Agreements for Europe and Latin America ... Reactions were explored in Western Europe and in Latin America to arms control agreements embracing these particular areas. In Europe reactions were predominantly favorable by large margins for an agreement between the Western Powers and the Soviet Bloc providing for some degree of ~-i,ssarmament ,in ~urgpe.: I~ satin, q~sexica approval;pre- daminated, but was lases widespread for an international agreement that would limit any further build up of arms in Latin America. "Would you approve or disapprove of an agreement between the Western Powers and the Soviet Union and its European allies. providing for some degree of disarmament in Europe3" WESTERN EUROPE Favorable France 59 Great Britain 55 Italy 44 wept Germany 34 Approve Disapprove opinion cases 66% 7~ 27...100% (1200) 63 $ 29 (1186) 59 15 26 (1200) 57 23 20 (1202) "Would you approve or disapprove of an international agreement that would limit any further build up of armaments in Latin America?" ' LATIN AMERICA Net Favorable Caracas 34 Buenos Aites 33 Mexico City 12 Rio de Janeiro 7 No No. of Appr?ve Disapprove o ip niot~ cases 62% 28% laJ...100% ( 401) 56 23 21 ( 481) 48 36 16 ( 389) 31 24 45 ( 392) Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP8 Banning Nuclear Tests ... The issue of inspection in the banning of nuclear tests was explored with results suggesting predominant worldwide support for the U.S. posi- tion. Favorable views prevailed in 12 areas, opinions were divided in New Delhi acid were adverse in the net only''in Tehran and Japan. "Now on this card we find two people expressing different views about banning nuclear tests (CARD)." Mr. A. says: "The U.S. should enter into an immediate agreement with the Soviet Union to ban nuclear testing even if the Soviets will not permit as much checking in both countries as the U.S. requests f.n order to verify that the agreement is kept." Mr. B. saysa "The U.S. should not enter into an agreement with the Soviet Union to ban nuclear tests unless the Soviets agree to as much checking in both countries as the U.S. feels necessary to verify that the agreement is kept." "Do you agree mare with T?Zr. A< or more z~rith Pir~ A.?" Net favorable ~ !~., . `,' C~ualified No ' I,1o.,~of ~rJ.ESTERN EUROPE B minus A T?:r. A. I~:r. B. answer o inian cases Great Britainl ~ ~ - .. 0~ Italy Francel 28 26 22 28 50 5~ 3 a~ 25 18 (1200) (1200) ~Je st Germany 18 30 I~$ 1 21 (1202 ) LAT?N AMERICA Buenos Aire 58 9 67 1 23 ( x.81) Mexico City t~7 19 66 - 15 ( 389) Caracas2 3~. 26 60 - l!~ ( x.01) Rio de Janeirol 30 8 3$ - 5~. ( 392) 1 In Great Britain, Rio, Mexico City, and for part of the sample in France an earlier less specific version of the question was used. "A main reason why there has been as yet no U.S.-Soviet agreement to ban nuclear tests is that the U.S. wants checking by international inspectors on each other's soil, and the Soviet Union opposes this because they say it will lead to spying." "Should the UaS. enter an agreement with the U.S.S.R. to stop testing with- out such inspection, or should the U.S. continue to insist upon such inspection as part of any agreement?" 2 In Caracas question was phrased "Here are two persons talking about the prohibition of nuclear testsQ With which of them are you in agreement? In agreement with 'Person A' in favor of U.S. entering agreement with Russia to stop testing nuclear tests without inspectors on each other's soil. Iri agreement with 'Person B' a U.S. should insist on inspection as part of any agreement. ?P Approved For Release 2002/08/28a $9$01676R0029001800~5-9 ontinued) Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP 0167680029001.80005-9 CONF TI.AL (Continued from preceding page) "Now on this card we find two people expressing different views about banning nuclear tests (CARD)." Mr. A. says: "The U.S. should enter into an immediate agreerrrent with the Soviet Union to ban nuclear testing even if the Soviets will not permit as much checking in both countries as the U.S. requests in order to verify that the agreement is kept." Mr. B. says: "The U.S. should not enter into an agreement with the Soviet Union to ban nuclear tests unless the Soviets agree to as much checking in both countries as the U.S. feels necessary to verify that the agreement is kept." "Do you agree more with Mr. A. or more with Mr. B.?" Piet favorable (B minus AZ P?r. A. Mr. B. Delhi Tehran -1 -12 FAR EAST Saigon 63 Bangkok 51 Australia 1t7 Singapore 38 Japan -13 27~ 26~ 37 25 11 71~ 2l ?2 21 68 21~ 62 29 l6 Qualified answer No No. of o inion ~ cases l~7~ ..load ( 500 ) 12 26 ( ~~~) 2 13 ( x.93 ) 2 5 ( t~97 ) - 11 ( 8301) 3 11 ( 1~9$) 2 53 ( 995) .Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 6 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP8 016768002900180005-9 C ONF TIAL III. Beliefs and Expectations About Nuclear War Some of the beliefs and expectations associated with the near universal desire for at least same degree of arms limitation reveal rather marked indications of pessimism, but also yield evidence that world opinion remains hopeful of avoiding nuclear destruction. Is Nuclear Disarmament possible? .,. That people are far from sangaine about future prospects is evi- dent first in estimates of the passibility of abolishing nuclear weapans. Though sentiment overwhelmingly favors such a course, the indications from 10 areas where the question was paced is that far fewer think it is achievable. Taking the returns all together, opinion is close to evenly divided if not somewhat negative on the average. "Do you think it will be possible or not passible to abolish nuclear weapans throughout the world?~~ WESTERN BUROFE Net tim~stic ~ Fassible I1at Fossible No +~ ina.on No. of cases France ~~ 31~- 2 , . I00 ~ 1200 Italy 11 1-.7 36 17 (1200) Great Britain 2 ~4 ~.2 7.t{. (1186) west Germany 1 ~5 ~~ 11 (1202) LATIN AI~~~ERICA ~~~~exico city - ~. ~.5 1~6 9 ( 389) Caracas - 2 ~3 !~5 12 ( ~Ol) Ria de Janeiro ~- 3 3t~ 37 29 ( 392 ) Buenos Aires -7.3 3~ 47 19 ( x.81) NEAR FAST Delhi (not asked) Teh~.nan FAR EAST ( !P YI ) Japan 1 -27 23 50 27 ( 995) Australia -3?~ 29 63 8 ( 830) Bangkok Saigon Singapore (not asked) ( ~~ ~r ( 'r #1 ) In Australia, question was phrased "Do you think it will be possible or impossible to abolish all atomic and other nuclear weapons throughout p~f~or Release 2002/08/28: IA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 CO IDENTTAL Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80 16768002900180005-9 CONF TIAL Would Nuclear Bambs Be Used In a New World War? ... Newt it is evident that the larger proportion of the people sur- veyed believe that nuclear bombs would be used rather than avoided in a new world war. Dissent from the general trend is particularly marked in France where the ma3ority (61 percent) feel it unlikely that nuclear bombs would be used in a new world war. "If a new world war broke out -- which naturally nobody desires -- do you consider it more likely that nuclear bombs would be used or do you consider it more likely that both sides would avoid using nuclear bombs?"1 WESTERN EUROPE Net timistic Nuclear bombs would be used Nuclear bombs would not be used No o inion No, of cases France 37 ~ ~ 1 ..100 1200 west Germany 16 33 !~9 18 .(1202) Italy 9 37 !~6 17 (1200) Great Britain 5 ?~0 I~5 15 (1186} LATIN A2~RICA I~~exico City $ !~l !~9 10 ( 389) Buenos Aires - 5 1~1~ 39 1? { x.81) Caracas - 9 ~.6 37 17 ( ~.Ol) Rio de Janeiro -36 56 20 2~, ( 392 ) NEA Tehran -3~ ~; 61 27 12 ( 500) Delhi. -3!~ 51 17 32 { 500) FA 'Z ~ " Saigon - 7 !~5 38 17 ( 193 ) Australia - 9 1~9 1~0 11 ( 830) JaP~ -31 53 22 25 C 995) Singapore -35 61 26 13 ( l~98) Bangkok -37 6!~ 27 9 ( 1197) 1 In Australia question was phrased "Naturally, nobody wants another world war -- but if one does come -- do you think atomic bombs and other nuclear wea- pons are likely to be used -- or do you think both aides are likely to avoid using them?" CONF NTTAL Approved For Release 2002/08/28 : RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP B01676R002900180005-9 CONF ENTIAL Wou1.d Tactical Use of Nuclear Weapons Escalate?... And if nuclear bombs are used at the beginning only on the battlefield9 the strongly predominant opinion -- where this question was asked -- is that such use would eventually escalate tc~ the nuclear bombing of c3.tiesq rrSo~ pule say that ~.f nuclear weapons are ud on' a battlefield it will eventually end in nuclear bombing of cities. Others say that this would not happen. Which is closer to your opinion?n Net Bomb- ing of Would not No No. of tinTESTERN EUROPE ~~ 0 tam~Lst3.c titles ha~en o~zni o n ? cases It'a' ?~~' ~ _ 17~ ~ ,~ , lb ~ 100 1200 Great Britain -62 73 u .. 16 {1186) West Germany -6~. 76 12 12 (1202) Free -70 77 7 16 (1200) LATIN AMERICA x~~exico C .ty - 9 !~0 ~9 11 (389 ) Rao de Janeiro -10 37 ~7 36 (392) Caracas -28 56 28 16 (x.01) Buenos Aires -~56 68 12 20 (I~$1) Approved For Release 2002/08/28 :CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP 0B01676R002900180005-9 CONF ENTIAL Is One Likely to Survive a General Nuclear War? ... A11 this leads to the conclusion that chances for survival are deemed slim if-wars are not brought to an end. UJithout a single exception in the is areas surveyed the viewpoint predominates by large to very large margins that ane is not likely to survive a world con- flict involving the use off' nuclear weapons. "If there was a general nuclear war, is it your feelings that you personally would be likely to survive or not?" WESTERN EURO?E `Net 0 t~imist_ic Likely Survive Likely not to Survive No o i~ nion No. of cases Wes~Germany ~-~~ ~$,~ ~ 23 ~;.. 100 2 2 Great Britain ~( ~ 8 70 2.2 (118b ) France -65 7 73 20 (1200) Italy -69 7 76 17 (1200) LATIN AMEaRICA ILi.o de Janeiro -5S 12 67 21 ( 392 ) Buenos Aires -5$ 11 70 19 ( t~81) Caracas - 72 $ $0 12 ( l~Ol ) Mexico City -81 1~ 85 11 ( 389) NEAR EAST h.~'i -~3 lt~ 57 29 ( 500 ) Tehran -57 10 67 23 ( 500) FAR EAST Australia -i~3 1~ 58 27 ( 830) Bangkok -53 18 71 11 (`.497) Singapore -6,~ 7 72 21 ( x.98) Saigon -65 11 76 l3 ( x.93 ) Japan -73 1~ 77 19 ( 995) 1(? Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 ' Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP~8'DB01676R002900180005-9 Despite these bleak views the large majority apparently sti~.l retain the expectation -- which may be as much a hope _- that nuclear war is not inevitable, and that the countries of the world will get together in time an some way to avoid such a happening. In every one of the 15 areas surveyed on this point this streak of optimisim predominates by a large margin over those who have resigned themselves to the inevitability of nuclear war. "All things considered, da you believe that a general nuclear war is inevitable some time in the future, or do you believe that the countries of the world will get together in time an some way to avoid such a happening?" Net Nuclear tiv~ar I~7ill k:e No No. of WESTERN EUROPE Optimistic 2nevitable: Avoided opinion cases Italy 76 6;0 82,E 12~ . .1000 (1200) France 75 5 80 15 (1200) Great Britain 65 8 73 19 (1186) West Germany ZATIN ATfIERICA 58 12 70 18 (1202) Buent~s Aires 77 ~: 81 ~.~ ( X81) Caracas 71 10 81 9 ( ?~Ol) Mexico City 67 11 78 11 ?( 389) Ric de Janeiro 67 9 66 2~ ('39.2) NEAR EAST Tehran 68 9 77 1!t ( ,00 Delhi !.~ 15 59 26 ( 500 FAR EAST Bangkok ~$ 1$ 76 6 ( G.97) Saigon 50 1~. 6~. 22 ( x.93) an Ja t 7 1 1 5$ 31 p Singapore ~ 1~1 . 22 63 15 ( 995) ~.98 Australia ~- , 36 . 21~ 60 16 ~ ~ 830 .fin ~~ustrnl.a_~~. cjuest:i.on ~,-as ~hrase~~ "nl~_ things consir"ered_, do ~rou be~.a_eve s. tia~orldwa_de :nuc:l..es.r tear ~.s cer-Lain ~Go h~ ppe~n sot~~etia~le 7. i"1 ~i;}ie J'u-Lure . Approved For Release 2002/0$/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 11 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP B01676R002900180005-9 ' CONF TIAL This basic hopefulness may well have been inspired in some cases, and strengthened in others, by the outcome of the Cuban confrontation which was predominantly interpreted in all areas as diminishing the likelihood of nuclear war. "All things considered, do you think the effect of the recent Cuban crisis has been to increase or decrease the likelihood of nuclear war in the near future?" WESTERN EUROPE Net Optimistic Increase Decrease No Dif- Nat No ference (Val. )Asked apinivn No. of cases West Germany 55 5~ b0~ -~ 11~ ?.4~.. lOC~ (1202 ) Great Britain 51 2 53 22 18 5 (1186) France 46 3 49 - lb. 32 (1200) Italy 3$ 5 43 - 3$ ]~.~. (1200) LATIN AMERICA Caracas 16 14 30 - 42 14 ( 401) Buenos Aires 15 8:' 23 8 52 9 ( 481) Rio de Janeiro 14 !~ 18 3 71 ~. ( 392) Mexico City 9 15; 24 7 52 2 ( 389) NEAR EAST Delhi 3b ~ 41 - 40 14 ( 500) Tehran 27 22 49 - - 29 ( 500) FAR EAST Australi~~ 32 5 37 28 25 5 ( 830) ,i~ Singapore 32 lb 48 - - 3b ( 498) Bangkok 25 25 50 ~-~ 25 ( 497) Japan 20 8 28 - 37~ 2'r 995) Saigon 17 14 31 - - 55' ( 493) Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Approved For Release 2002/08/28 :CIA-RDP 016768002900180005-9 CONF ENTIAL IV. U.S. and Soviet Peace Efforts Ts America Doing All It shou7.d to Prevent War? ... Whatever difficulties people see in attaining arms control and a stable world peace, there is no general inclination in the 10 areas surveyed 'on `this issue to blame the U.S. for lack of trying. On the contrary the opirLion predominates -though by only a limited margin in France -that America is doing all it should to prevent a new world war. . ~~Is America doing all it should do to prevent a new world war?rr WESTERN EUROPE Net Favorable Yes Italy 63 73~ West Germany 59 73 Great Britain 27 5S France 13 talc. LATIN AMERICA Mexico City 51 ?1 Buenas Aires 3ta 55 Rio de Janeiro 26 ~.8 Caracas 25 ~~ No No . ~f No o inion cases lob 17~ ..100 (1200) lt~ 13 (1202) 28 17 (1186) 31 25 (1200) 20 9 (389) 21 2~, (l~81) 22 30 (392) 30 15 (t~01) NEAR EAST Delhi. (Not Asked) Tehran n n FAR EAST Australia 50 70 20 10 ( 830) Japan ta.~ 57 13 30 ( 995) Bangkok Saigon (Nat Asked) " " Singapore " " Approved For Release 2002/08/28 :CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 ' Approved For Release 2002/08/28 : CI DP80B01676R002900180005-9 C OP ~ ENTIAL Is the TTSSTt Doing A11 2t Should to Prevent Tr1ar?... 2n contrast, Soviet standing tends to be negative in the net on this general index, though in the aftermath of Cuba considerab7.y less adverse than it has been in past years. In Japan post-Cuban judgments of Soviet peace efforts are particularly favorable to the USSR., outweighing negative vietirs by a subs-Lantial margin of 2~ per cent. "FTow about the USSR -- is Soviet ~~ussia doing all it should do to prevent a new vaorld war? ~~ WESTT~I~N EUt~.OPE i~Tet Favorable Yes A1o T1o o anion - Tdo. of cases Italy ....._.,._ ?...-_..~ -~--~0.', 33 0 27 ..100` 12 p) France - 1 36 37 27 (1200) Great Britain -12 33 ~5 22 (11$6) Z~~est Germany -36 22 s$ 20 (1202) LATIN ANI~RICA Rio de Janeiro -12 2s 37 3$ (392) Buenos Aires -17 ~4 1~1 35 (x.81) Caracas -21 30 ~1 19 (~,Ol) Mexico City -2$ 29 57 1~. X389) NEAR Ia;AST Delhi Tehran (Not Asked) u a FAR EAS T Japan 25 ~.,~ 20 35 C 995 ) Australia -27 29 56 15 ("$30) Bangkok Saigon Singapore CNot Asked) ~~ rr +d n Approved For Release 2002/08/28 :CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 ry Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP Is .America Likely t~o be Trigger Happy with Nuclear Bombs? ,.. Finally, in a more specific test of American dedication to peace, it may be seen in the two regions surveyed that only limited minorities subscribe to the charge that America is likely to be trigger happy in the use ~of nuclear bombs, However, the extent of such views in Britain though outweighed by contrary judgments is appreciable, and marks one of the few occasions where criticism of the U.S. is greater in Britain than in France, 1tDo you believe that one can rely on America using nuclear bombs only in an extreme emergency, or do you believe that America might be too rash in using nuclear bombs?'~ Net Favorable Would Use Only in an Extreme Emergency Might Use Rashly No opinion No, of cases 6 ~ 4% 2~ ..100 2ooj ( ! ~~. l 15 2 31 1 (1200) 58 26 16 (1186) ( 65 9 26 ~-~l) ~ 67 20 l3 389) ~.7 a.li. 39 ( 392) West Germany ?7 Italy 50 France 39 Great Britain 32 LATIN AMERICA Caracas 68 Buenos Aires 56 Mexico C~,ty ~.7 Rio de Janeiro 33 Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 CONF1`I~EAtf IAL Approved For Release 2002/08L2 CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 APPENDIX - SAMPLING SE~tARY Western Europe Place Coverage Cases Survey Dates In.sti:tute Britain National 1186 Jan 19 - Feb 11, '63 Social Surveys (Gallup Poll), Ltd., London France National 1200 Jan 24 - Feb 8, '63 Institut Francais d`Opinion Publique, Paris W,Germany Pational 1202 Jan 30 - Feb 20, 'b3 DIVO, Bad Godesberg Italy National 1200 Feb 5-25, 'b3 Societa Internazionale per le Ricerche di Mercato, Milan Latin America Mexico T~9exico City 389 February '63 Int'1 Research Associates, S.A. de C.V., Mexico City Brazil Rio '392 February 6-21,'b3 Instituto de Pesquisas de Opiniao a 1.~ercado, Rio Argentina Buenos Aires 481 Feb-March '63 Instituto IPSA, Buenos Aires Venezuela Caracas ~4~J1 February '63 Int'1 Research Associates, C.A., Caracas Sotae Continents These are the same long established national samples that have been earlier used for West European regional reports. More extensive urban sar.:p= ling, and rural sanplinc~ is possible but was foregone. in the initial worlovride series in the interest of economy and because of a concurrent .seven-nation urban and rural survey on a broad range of issues.l l See USIA report R-110-63(R), "The Economic and Political Climate of Opinion in Latin America and Attitudes Toward the Alliance for Progress," June 1963, CONFTDENTIAL. Approved For Release 2002/08/28: CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 C~J.'i:'I a:?IAL Approved For Release 2002/08/28 CIA-RDP80B01676R002900180005-9 Near East Place Coverage Cases Survey Dates Institute Some C~as~c.~-cs India New Delhi 5v^u ~.iarch 1-15, 'ti53 Indian Institute of Public lgbl electoral rolls ~:crc Opinion, New Delhi used to select r~sponcertc. All Harts of metro~~o? ita_~ Delhi except Shahdra (:'ti'?~sre illiteracy is high) anu D~l~~i Cantonment (vrhere up-to-date lists vrere unavailable) were representedo Women are under- represented in the sample due to difficulty in reaching them and elicitincr coo?;eration. Respondents vrere c~ra~J_1 from Iran Tehran 5C0 April 1 - i.iay 10, ' 63 '