LETTER TO JOHN A. MCCONE FROM STEWART L. UDALL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R002900030005-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 116
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2002
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: December 26, 1962
• Content Type: LETTER

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THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR
December 26, 1962
Dear John:
On file DOI release instructions apply.
Attached you will find an advance copy of the report I and
my colleagues prepared on our trip to the Soviet Union
last September. There are some items in the report
which undoubtedly will be of interest to your people--and
I dare say you will personally want to peruse the summary
statement which appears at page 94. On pages 105 and 106
I made special mention of Minister (now Deputy Premier)
Novikov. In my opinion he is a "comer", and it was he who
I had in mind during the remarks I made at the White House
discussion group a couple of weeks ago. It is likely that he
will head a Soviet exchange delegation which will inspect
some of our installations next summer.
If I can be of further assistance to you and your associates,
please call on me at any time.
Best personal regards.
Sincerely,
Stewart L. Udall
Secretary of the Interior
The Honorable
John A.. Mc Cone
Director of Central Intelligence
2430 E Street, N. W.
Washington, D. C.
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MEMORANDUM FOR: DCI
DDCI
Copy of report also sent to Executive Director
with note of thanks to him from Secretary Udall
for CIA's help in preparing report. Kirkpatrick
will send his report to ORR for their use.
FORM NO. 10 1 REPLACES FORM 10,101
I AUG 54
4 January 1963
Mr. Kirkpatrick
DCI has noted. He
requests DDI to bring any
interesting items to his attention.
STAT
STAT
IMIKIrKpatric
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NOTE
THIS IS AN ADVANCE COPY
The material it contains is not to be released until after a press
3
conference to be held at/. 00 p. m. December 27, 1962, by
Secretary Udall.
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RECENT ELECTRIC
POWER DEVELOPMENTS
IN THE U.S.S.R.
REPORT OF THE
UNITED STATES DELEGATION
TOUR TO SOVIET RUSSIA,
AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 9, 1962,
UNDER U. S.- U. S. S. R.
EXCHANGE AGREEMENT
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RECENT ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENTS IN THE U.S.S.R.
Report of the
United States Delegation Tour to Soviet Russia
August 28-September 9, 1962
Under U.S.-U.S.S.R. Exchange Agreement*
December 27, 1962
Component parts of the report were prepared by various members
of the group. The report is a composite of the several impressions
received by individual members.
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Page
Introduction ................................................... 1
Delegation Membership ..................................... 1
Russian Hosts ............................................. 4
Purpose of Visit .......................................... 5
Travel Arrangements ....................................... 6
Itinerary ................................................. 6
Part I. Russian Installations Visited ......................... 11
Irkutsk ................................................... 12
Bratsk .................................................... 13
Kuibyshev ................................................. 17
Volgograd ................................................. 18
Chaguinskai Substation .................................... 21
Part II. Swedish and English Installations Visited............ 22
Part III. Soviet Technology ................................... 24
Dams ...................................................... 24
Costs ................................................. 30
Manpower .............................................. 31
Hydroelectric Equipment and Operation ..................... 31
Extra-High-Voltage (EHV) Transmission ..................... 35
Alternating Current ................................... 35
Direct Current... ..................................... 38
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c;ONTENTS (Continued)
zed Dispatching .................. ...._ ............. 43
Research and Development ....................... ............ 45
itatistical Comparison of Dams in United State and
U.,3.S.R ..................................... ............
tart 1.V. Soviet and United States Energy Compared.............. 52
Power Growth--U.S.S.R. and United States............. 57
The Soviet Union .............................. .......... 66
T,4 e United States .............................. ............ 70
?art Vll. Raw Material Resources .................. ............ 73
l:~ing Water ................................. ............ 74
.................................
Natural Gas., ............................. _..
Cal.
>........,.
. . . . . . . ? . . O
Wood, Peat, and Oil Shale ..................... ..........,.
Total Reserves... ............................. ............ 83
IJCI. Soviet Economic Geography................ ,. 85
a'a.rt 11. Soviet Uses of Energy .................... ........... 88
41 ary Statement by Secretary of the Interior
Stewart L. Udall......... ............................,......... 94
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Figure No.
Page
1
Delegation departing from Friendship Airport.........
2
2
Map of Itinerary .....................................
7
3
Bratsk Dam in summer 1962 ............................
14
4
Precast concrete columns at Bratsk Dam ...............
14
5
Downstream portion of Bratsk Dam... ................
15
6
Heavy truck used for hauling concrete at Bratsk Dam..
15
7
Volga River Basin Dams ...............................
16
8
Volgograd Hydroelectric Plant ........................
19
9
Entrance to Volgograd Plant ..........................
19
10
Twenty-two 115,000-kilowatt generating units at
Volgograd ..........................................
20
11
Control room at Volgograd Plant ......................
20
12
Eight and one-half cubic yard bucket used to place
concrete at Bratsk Dam .............................
27
13
Precast concrete blocks used at Bratsk Dam...........
29
14
Women laborers at Bratsk Dam .........................
32
15
Woman laborer at Bratsk Dam ..........................
32
16
Hollow welded shaft ..................................
34
17
500-kv. air blast circuit breaker ....................
36
18
500-kv. lightning arrester ...........................
36
19
500-kv. disconnect switches ..........................
37
20
500-kv. switchyard equipment .........................
37
21
500-kv. current transformer ..........................
39
22
10Don?t climb - it kills" .............................
39
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ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued)
800-kv. direct-current transmission town r -
Kringing of conductors in progress... ............ 42
Increases in transmission line voltages in
9.S< ,. U.S.S.R. ..................................... 40
800-kv. direct-current transmission tow*r in
foreground and 500-kv. a-c towers in background
it Volgograd ...................................... 42
e
2i Central dispatching office of the Unifies
=uropean Electric System in Moscow.,,,
Cascade of transformers for testing at 2250 kv....,. 46
New EHV laboratory in Moscow ........ >....,.......... 46
29 Direct-current cascade generator for testing
300 kv................................ ............. 47
Impulse voltage generator ............... ..........., 47
Increases in size of major hydroelectric plants..... 58
Increases in size of hydroelectric generating units. 59
Consumption of electric energy U.S. - U.'.S.R....... 60
ry Consumption of electric energy U.S. - U.S.S.R.
(plotted on ratio paper) ....-.......- ... ........... 61
Electric power generating capacity in U. s. -
U.S..R ............................... ........... 62
Installed generating capacity U.S. - U.S S.R........ 65
Powerpiants in the U.S.S.R. with capacity of
1,000 megawatts or over ............... ........... 68
Resources of the Angara - Yenisey Region,........... 72
Oil and gas fields of the Soviet Union., ._.......,, 76
Oil and gas fields in the United States. 77
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ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued)
Figure No.
Page
41
Coal-bearing basins and deposits of the
Soviet Union ......................................
80
42
Coal fields of the United States ....................
81
43
U.S. and U.S.S.R. compared in size and
latitude location .................................
86
44
Apartments under construction .......................
92
45
Completed apartments ................................
92
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Prior to 1962 there were three official visits by electric
power delegations from the United States -- two by representatives
of the private utility companies in the summers of 1958 and 1959,
under auspices of the Edison Electric Institute, and another by
representatives of the Senate Committees on Public Works and
Interior and Insular Affairs, under the chairmanship of Senator
Frank E. Moss of Utah. The present group, rounding out the compass
of interest, consisted of public officials responsible for the
administration of power policy in the United States.
Delegation Membership
The delegation was headed by the Secretary of the Interior,
who is responsible for the operations of the Bureau of Reclamation,
Bonneville Power Administration, Southeastern Power Administration,
and Southwestern Power Administration. The Bureau of Reclamation
is one of the two largest builders of hydroelectric powerplants in
the United States, while the other agencies in the Department are
the marketing bureaus for power developed by the Government. The
Bonneville Power Administration is the marketing agent in the Pacific
Northwest and one of the country's largest builders of transmission
lines.
Among the other members of the delegation were Joseph C. Swidler,
Chairman of the Federal Power Commission, Major General R. G.
MacDonnell of the Corps of Engineers, and Fred Chambers, Assistant
Director of the Tennessee Valley Authority. The Corps of Engineers
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`hampers, 12. Curtis W. K?=+mr Cons lta.nt
pan ge Program departing IT t same tar -.e we:-e-,
a3 cn aenar-ting, from l ?riencishin Airnort I Secret .rv of th,
yr rllte, o. Orren Kearv. 1. P "t, ri F. Don nv,
yes K, Carr, 3. Joseph C, c , utter, 4. -inward
Maj. (:en. P, G. Mac Don Al.. 10. T W.
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is the other major dam and hydroplant construction agency. The
Tennessee Valley Authority, an independent Government agency, has
constructed many dams and hydroelectric and thermal powerplants,
including accessory high-voltage transmission lines. The TVA is
almost the sole supplier of electric power in an area of about
80,000 square miles; it is the largest single purchaser and con-
sumer of coal in the United States. The Federal Power Commission
licenses the development of hydroelectric
the operation of power companies.
The delegation included:
Stewart L. Udall
Joseph C. Swidler
Howard Morgan
Lee C. White
Orren Beaty, Jr.
Floyd R. Dominy
Charles F. Luce
Maj. Gen. R. G. MacDonnell
projects and regulates
Secretary of the Interior,
Chairman of the delegation
Under Secretary of the Interior
Chairman of the Federal Power
Commission
Commissioner,
Federal Power Commission
Assistant Special Counsel
to the President
Assistant to the Secretary of
the Interior
Commissioner, Bureau of
Reclamation
Administrator, Bonneville
Power Administration
Director of Civil Works, Corps
of ]Engineers, Department of
the Army
Chief, Division of General
Engineering, Bureau of
:'declamation
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Assistant Di:ector of Power
Planning aid Engineering,
3aness.e jai ley Authority
Interpreter,
Department of State
Special Conslltant to the
:Secretary ;t the Interior
tCenerai tPjnager and Chief
Aigineer c, Sacramento
Municipal tilities District)
Special Cons..iltant to the
:secretary r the Interior
attorney or Sulphur Springs
Valley Rur-l Electric Co-op,
.sbee. Ax zona)
aussian Hosts
`Vt United States delegation left by plane c i August 28. 1962,
ieh-vole = cze laboratory
-he \ :-pion
I-( r --t finical In,ti.tute
J Slt3%.t 1..,- ". 7; a, Mos.-.ow
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N
F-I
bU
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High-power short-circuit testing is not don4, at this
uistitute, and nowhere did the party see any test equipment of
::his kind.
As have others, the group left with the conviction that
Soviet engineers and scientists proceed with confidence in
tackling the imposing problems confronting them la power-system
and power-equipment development. They produce gcid work, much of
which is generally described in both the Soviet ead foreign tech-
apical press.
flowing this chapter is a statistical comFilation of dams
. the United States and the U.S.S.R. compared by height, by volume
content and size of reservoir created by dams.
Insofar as high dams in the United States axe concerned, the
data reveals that the United States has built mama high concrete
dams dating back many years with Hoover Dam being constructed in
1936 at a height of 726 feet. The highest completed Russian con-
crete dam is Bukhtarminsk which is 295 feet high. It should be
rooted, however, that the Russians are commencing the construction
concrete dam 988 feet high and a rock-fill dam 984 feet high.
The statistics show that the United States las built the largest
earth dams in volume content. The Russians have also built several
large earth dams. Their experience has been prix,--ipally in the
field of hydraulic fill.
The statistics on large reservoirs created b~ dams reflect the
rivers in the U.S.S.R.
48
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COMPARISON OF U.S.A. AND U.S.S.R DAMS BY HEIGHT
UNITED STATES' HIGHEST DAMS
Year
Height COm-
Rank and Name (ft.) leted
RUSSIA'S HIGHEST DAMS
Rank and Name
1. Oroville 735 E UC
2. Hoover 726 C 1936
3. Glen Canyon 710 C UC
4. Shasta 602 C 1945
5. Hungry Horse 564 C 1953
6. Grand Coulee 550 C 1942
7. Ross 540 C 1949
8. Trinity 537 E 1962
9. Yellowtail 520 C UC
10, Cougar 515 CRE UC
11. Swift 512 E 1958
12. Flaming Gorge 502 C UC
13. Donnells 484 C 1957
14. Fontana 480 C 1944
15. Carters 464 ER UC
16. Anderson Ranch 456 E 1950
17~ Detroit 454 C 1953
18, Pine Flat 440 C 1954
19. Round Butte 440 R UC
20. O'Shaughnessy 430 C 1938
1. Ingurskaya
2. Nurek
3. Chirkeyskaya
4. Sayanskaya
5. Charvakskaya
6. Bratsk
7. Krasnoyarsk
8. Zeyskaya
9. Bukhtarminsk
10. Syonskaya
11. Mingechaurskaya
12. Ladzhanurskaya
1.3. Tolorosskaya
14. Vilyuyskaya
15. U st' -Kamenogorsk
16. Dnieprostroy
17. Mamakan
18. Pavlousk
19. Gumatskaya
20. Upper Tuloma
Year First
Height Generating
(ft.) Unit Operated
988 C
984 R
755 C
738 R
505 R
410 EC
390 C
371 RE
295 C
278 E
262 H
226 C
223 C
213 R
213 C
203 C
190 C
174 CHE
171 C
164 EC
UC
UC
A
A
A
1961
UC
A
1960
UC
1953
1960
UC
UC
1952
1932
1961
1959
1958
UC
C - Concrete E - Earth R - Rock-fill H - Hydraulic Earth-fill
UC - Under Construction A - Approved for Construction
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he United States now uses 2-1/3 times as muci energy--electri-
.hermal, internal combustion, etc.--as the Soy. et Union. The
Let's 1961 use was almost precisely what Americ's was in 1920.
{aa electric energy alone, the United States uses 2-.3/4 times as much
is the. U.S.S.R., they are now where we were in 1941. In rate of
+.a:acrease, however, the reverse is true, the Soviet s use of electric-
ity is increasing almost three times as fast as ouis.
all energy in the United States were produc:.ed by burning coal,
would average out at ten tons per person each year. In Russia, the
r capita consumption would be 3-1/2 tons a year. Their per capita
-ate _i what ours was about 1900; their per capita consumption of
electric energy alone is what ours was in 1941.
Tie statistical foundation for those comments and other comparative
i.aforuation follow (all figures for 1961):
i.S.S?R. United States
Population
E lemenr_s of use e
2.18 milli, n 184 million
Consumption, kw-firs.
327,000 m..illion 880,000 million
Rate of increase, 1.960-61
Rate of increase, total energy,
12.97. 4.57.
19 50-61
4.37./yr. 2.87./yr.
acapita, kw--:hr?s.
1500 4800
.:.'er capita rate Af increase, 1960-61
107. 3.57.
elements of supply:
Installed capacity, kw.
/4,000,001 199,000,000
Reserve capacity, kw.
Unknown 4,300,000
Hydropower as percent of total
i
22 18
electr
c energy
hydropower resources, kw-hrs./yr.
2,100 bil ion 643 billion
F'ortior, of hydropower developed
31 257.
highest transmission voltage,
kv.
500 345 1/
Largest. hydropiant completed,
kw.
2,530,000 2,196,000
Largest hydro-unit capacity,
kw.
225,000 150,000
Sugle 13-mile segment of one line operating ar 500,000 volts
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Regarding plant and investment to provide the electric energy,
we. have already called attention to their huge dams and hydroplants.
The comparison with ours is shown in the tables on the next three
pages. The Soviet Union has two hydroelectric plants under con-
struction much larger than our largest, which will be represented
by the one at John Day, Oregon-Washington, with its 2,700,000-kw.
ultimate installation.
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I istalled Capaci -v, MW
Ultimate 17 Present
Date of
Initial
Operation
d ASNUJYARSK, U.S.S.R., 6,000
NA
UC
l#R.ATSK, U.S.S.R. 4,500
4.500
1961
.JOHN :JAY, U.S.A. 2,700
1 350
UC
NUREK, U.S.S.R. 2,700
wA
UC
` OLGOGRAD, U.S.S.R. 2,530
2,530
1959
'ortage Mountain, Canada 2 , 500
NA
UC
3IBY,SHEV, U.S.S.R. 2,300
2 300
1959
GRAND COULEE, U.S.A. 1,974
1.974
1941
ROBERT MOSES NIAGARA., U.S.A. 1,950
1 950
1961
HE DALLES, U S.A. 1,749
1 125
1959
CHIEF JOSEPH, U.S.A. 1,728
1 J24
1958
_`emano , Canada 1,670
335
1954
Be.auharnois, Canada 1,560
1.560
1932
Kariba, Rhodesia 1,500
500
1959
NGUR1, U.S.S.R. 1,400
NA
UC
tARATUV, U.S.S.R. 1,380
NA
UC
3 a r Adam Beck No. 2, Canada 1,370
900
1954
'10OVER U.S.A. 1,345
1 345
1936
W.ANAPUJM,U. S.A. 1,330
331
UC
tAtliate capacity for which provision is made i dam or power-
substructure. Present capacity indicate- units included
rent stage of development.
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Volume
Cubic Yards
FORT PECK, U.S.A.
125,600,000
1940
OAHE, U.S.A.
92,000,000
UC
OROVILLE, U.S.A.
78,000,000
UC
Mangla, Pakistan
75,000,000
UC
SAN LUIS, U.S.A.
75,000,000
UC
GARRISON, U.S.A.
66,500,000
1960
Portage Mountain, Canada
65,000,000
Uc
NUREK, U.S.S.R.
58,860,000
UC
KIEV, U.S.S.R.
58,813,000
UC
Aswan High Dam, Egypt
53,000,000
UC
FORT RANDALL, U.S.A.
50,200,000
1956
KAKHOUKA, U.S.S.R.
46,617,000
1955
South Saskatchewan, Canada
45,000,000
UC
TSIMLYANSKAJA, U.S.S.R.
44,323,000
1952
KUIBYSHEV, U.S.S.R.
44,298,000
1955
KREMENCHUG, U.S.S.R.
36,281,000
1959
DNEPRODZERZHINSK, U.S.S.R.
35,965,000
UC
VOLGOGRAD, U.S.S.R.
33,000,000
1958
KINGSLEY, U.S.A.
32,000,000
1942
TRINITY, U.S.A.
29,000,000
1962
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Capacity, Acre-.-eet
Year
Owens Falls, Uganda
169,500,000*
1953
Kariba, Rhodesia
149,000,000
1960
BRATSK, U.S.S.R.
145,000,000
UC
Aksombo, Ghana
120,000,000
UC
Manicouagan No. 5, Canada
115,000,000
UC
Aswan High Dam, Egypt
104,000,000
UC
Portage Mountain, Canada
88,000,000
UC
KRASNOYARSK, U.S.S.R.
59,400,000
UC
Sanmen Gorge, China
52,600,000
UC
KUIBYSHEV, U.S.S.R.
47,000,000
1955
Mangla, Pakistan
45,000,000
UC
I3UKHTARMINSK, U.S.S.R.
43,000,000
1960
IRKUTSK, U.S.S.R.
3/,300,000*
1956
Wainganga, India
33,200,000
UC
HOOVER' U.S.A.
31,047,000
1936
GLEN CANYON. U.S.A.
28,040,000
UC
VOLGOGRAD, U.S.S.R.
27,159,000
1958
E1 Fuerte, Mexico
25,000,000
1940
GARRISON, U.S.A.
24,500,000
1960
Lake Ontario, Canada/U.S.A
24,288,000*
1958
* Additional storage as result of dam construction.
UC Under construction.
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PART V. POWER GROWTH--U.S.S.R. AND UNITED STATES
The following charts, based upon material given the United
States group while in Russia and upon statistics and other infor-
mation compiled from United States sources, present graphically
present and forecast power capabilities in the United States and
the Soviet Union.
The first paired charts compared the growth in the size of
hydroplants and generating units in Russia and the United States
over the past half century. The massive growth in Russia began as
soon as that country could recover after World War II and has pro-
ceeded at a rapid pace ever since.
The next chart compares the increase in use of electricity in
the two countries, and a companion chart shows the same information
plotted on what is known as ratio paper. Use of this kind of plotting
paper permits direct comparison of rates of growth as contrasted with
absolute amounts. As measured by the per capita use of total energy,
the Soviet Union is at the stage of its economic development that
the United States was (as mentioned earlier) about 1900. Thus,
although at the present energy use is expanding faster in the Soviet
Union than in the United States, the rate of increase in the two
countries during comparable stages in their economic growth was the
faster in the United States, as indicated in the side box on the
chart. Installed capacity shows the same story, since consumption
is equal to capacity times a fairly constant plant factor.
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05-5
INCREASES IN SIZE OF MAJOR
l
HYDRO-ELECTRIC PLANTS IN
~4,5U0
UNITED STATES AND SOVIET UNION
I
in Mega-watts
I
Soviet (irjon I
1930 1940
EA R
1950 1960 1970
Ap06vec For Re [se $00 08/28' ! c1ALRDP80B01676R00 00 905-5
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INCREASES IN SIZE OF HYDROELECTRIC
POWERPLANT GENERATING UNITS
In Mega-watts
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
YEAR
Source of U.S. Data - Federal Power Commission
Figure 32
59
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 Appr N&IMP 1 OOI E : (ElIfk > 1 16EXER30005-5
UNITED STATES AND SOVIET UNION
900
300
}-
-100
600
500
400
200
1930
1940
YEAR
1950
e er U.S. Data - Federal Power Commission
Figure 33
1960
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60
 Approved
3000 r-
2000
1000
500
Z 50
J
10
Trend During Comparable
Economic Period
i
I/
I /
I /
1
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
YEAR
ForVNSIJ J N:O -@QJ R1E7?T30005-5 U.S.S.R.
II\IITrr% CTATCC A LIM rt%wirT IILsIALI Goal
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61
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0
0
ef'
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a
= - m
r L ibs V
Q.= -
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62
u)
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In any normal growth situation, the growth starts gently, gains
speed, and eventually begins to slow down. Depicted graphically,
the course of growth follows the form of the letter S, as shown in
the inserts on the charts for installed capacity and consumption of
electric energy. Rate of growth, however, progressively deteriorates,
as shown by the chart on ratio paper.
The inserts in the figures show where the U.S.S.R. now is in
the growth pattern as compared with the United States. In 1945, the
Soviet Union lagged behind the United States by 33 years and 50
million kilowatts of installed capacity; by 1961, it lagged only 12
years in time, but the lag in capacity had grown to 125 million
kilowatts. The capacity lag is certain to get larger before it gets
smaller. The time figures point toward one interpretation, the capac-
ity figures toward another. But such relationships, and the fact that
in the Soviet Union the use of electricity according to figures given
to the delegation is currently growing almost three times as fast as
in the United States, have no absolute meaning; they take on signifi-
cance only in relation to the relative stages of growth, one country
in relation to the other.
Tabulations under the heading "Electric Power Generation and
Consumption," show that the United States is presently at a much
higher level than the Soviet Union in both generating capacity and
production of electric energy.
However, the annual installation of
new capacity-in the United States is on a plateau with even some
tendency towards a reduction. The Soviet Union, on the other hand,
is increasing rapidly with no tendency whatever towards flattening
to a plateau.
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cap ici t\i In Lite L.eli s_ ^.u Ltites dropped from
t d, ;; :ti t:art J rs 1.~3`jy to i m, i i ions ? i i writts predicted in
s> _ 131-ijan-oti: is subject to s ippage, i ,e tinal figure may
a, ;> Loci ii. co 11.5 million Kilowatts.. e Soviet Union in
s.;in itut.ei.aai o.o iime, iioweveri, Yeas risen f ,m 5.7 million kilo-
1 a.owatts, ar.Ouail'J i1crfi-td iiy, the t) million
;,+~a: ec I pure 7 1Veik Lu Ls uy ,o~, et officials, but on
a., _file-"ed IL-1 1962.
.
.R.
235.4
265.1
292.3
321.1
a_.
(est.)
366.1:. (Plan)
:ed4.I((-
iNCREASES
3 ions of Kilowatt-hours
J. S.S.R,
J.
iU< i "elan) r 1 0)2 bz. j9.a (elan)
y bIiapage L_a 1 j oi: L? ,i
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3- i "1 yra L,
pasr- ;per-3oruiauce it would nut be se arising it this is
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-Sai.eis pal! u(1
z
0
m
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!n a speech before the 22nd Congress of t],e Communist Party
ctober 1961, Chairman Khrushchev reported teat high priority
was being placed on electrification of the couz try. The plan calls
520 billion kilowatt-hours by 1965, 950 bi..lion by 1970, and
between 2,700 billion and 3,000 billion by 1984. The 1980 goal is
almost ten times the 1961 output of 327 billion kilowatt-hours.
In a speech in November 1959 to the All-Ut on Conference of
Power Industry Construction, Chairman Khrushchea had placed the 1980
target at 2,300 billion kilowatt-hours, so the aussians appear to
have raised their sights. We are tempted to btieve that the Soviets
did so to keep pace with Americas own rising estimates for 1980,
while adhering to their intention of equaling c-- surpassing this
Nation by then. At the time of the 1959 speect, U. S. forecasts for
L980 projected to about 2,300 billion kilowatt-iours; by the time of
the 1961 speech, there were half a dozen forecasts in the range of
21,760 billion to 2,990 billion. (See paragraphs following.)
expansion in the U.S.S.R. will be in both zydroelectric and
thermal power stations. It had been the Soviet plan to emphasize
construction of hydroplants, because such 1gwer is cheaper; but
in, the 1959 speech, Chairman Khrushchev explain--d a change in this
policy toward whatever combination of hydroplar::s and steamplants
wa uld get the country electrified the fastest-. would get it electri-
fied within the 1975-1980 period.
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"When you tell me," he said to his audience,."that you can
produce a kilowatt-hour of power from a hydropower station, but you
will get it five years later than its thermal ... counterpart ...
that is worth thinking about, because we can lose five years in our
competition with capitalist countries."
During Secretary Udall's meeting with Chairman Khrushchev
September 6, 1962, at Cape Pitsunda on the Black Sea, the Soviet
leader remarked to Secretary Udall that Russia has challenged the
United States to an energy race.
As explained by Secretary Udall September 11, 1962, at a press
conference in the United States:
"With regard to the effort they are making in what Chairman
Khrushchev called the energy race, the race to see which country
can produce the most energy to drive its industrial machine, with
the advanced work that they are doing, particularly in the field of
hydroelectric power, I would say in the thermal power field we are
leading in most aspects of this field, but over the past 10 years
or so the Soviet Union people obviously have developed a very high
degree of competence and our engineers respected it, and this means
that we have a formidable challenger in this important field.
"As I told Mr. Khrushchev ... he said they were challenging us
to an energy race, they were going to overtake us ... that we welcomed
a contest of this kind. I thought that we had the men and the system
in this country to meet such a challenge."
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By 1980, the Soviet Union plans to have in operation 180 large,
new hydroelectric stations, about 200 regional thermal plants, and
another 260 thermal plants for both power and heat. After the com-
pletion of the Bratsk and Krasnoyarsk hydroelectric stations, the
plan for eastern Siberia calls for the construction of several more
large hydroelectric stations on the Angara and Yenisey Rivers (at
Sayanskaya, Ust-Ilim, Boguchany, Yeniseisk and Osinovo) as well as
a station on the Lower Tunguska River. The capacity of each of these
is to exceed four million kilowatts.
Large dams are to be built in Central Asia for both power genera-
tion and irrigation. Among these are the Nurek and Rogunskaya dams
on the Vakhsh River and the Toktogul and Toguztorouskaya dams on the
Naryn River, Several large powerplants will be built in Kazakh-stan,
including the Irtysh group. The Volga-Kama power chain is to be com-
pleted with the construction of the Saratov, Lower Volga, and Cheboksary
stations and two stations on the Kama, Hydro output along the Volga
and Dnieper Rivers will be almost doubled.
Two groups of thermal powerplants are to be built in Moscow,
each having a capacity of three million kilowatts, and several in
the vicinity of Saratov, Volgograd, and Gorky and in the Kuibyshev
Ufa-0rentiurg area, as well as in the regions south and northeast of
Moscow, it% the Ukraine near Kiev, Kirovograd, and Nikolayev, and in
the Donets Basin, Latvia and Belorussia.
For the Soviet Union to meet its goals, It will be necessary for
them to place in operation, on average, one plant of the size they
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Icing about, be it hydroelectric or steam, ery two weeks
between 196J and 1970,, and one every week after t :t--and they
appreciate this,
is determined to reach. The United States k::oes not have such
foregoing comments refer to plans--to go.-ins that the Soviet
ials, numerous rorecasts have been made regardir:w our future use
er., but they are no more than twat; that is no more than
5irec:ascs of what the United States is expected ta be using under
he normal course of nacional growth. Far from rkoresenting targets
person maicin such forecasts or projections Y.akes his own cal-
they specifically assume no basic ciiang, in public policy.
i.at_ons or assumptions about population, econom. c growth, business
ngs, the way in which the energy is going to bk used, and similar
:uas.iderations. As a result, and even though all are recognized
authorities, their projections range wiueiv. Est: cater of the 1980
energy in the United States r:.ge from 73,250
Won Btu's (oritish thermal units) to fully 14-1,.000 trillion
the highest estimate is twice the -lo vest. In electric
generation, recent estimates are more nearly uniform, ranging from
,300 billion kilowatt-hours in 1980 to 2.990 bile ion kilowatt-hours.
oower, the highest also is twice the Dwest--300 billion
kilowatt-hours as compared to 145 billion ki.lowati-hours. A recent
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Insular Affairs 1/ deduced a consensus, from among these various
estimates, of 82 trillion Btu's of total energy, 2,700 billion
kilowatt-hours of electric energy, and perhaps about 275 billion
kilowatt-hours of hydropower. Thus, in 1980 the use of energy of
all kinds in the United States is forecast as being about double
that of 1961, use of electric energy about 3-1/2 times the 1961 usage,
and hydropower about 1-3/4 times. Hydropower is expected to drop
from 17.5 percent of total electric generation to as low as 10
percent.
The United States, too, has a number of hydroplants under con-
struction: the Wanapum (Washington), Oroville (California), Trinity
(California), Oahe (South Dakota), Glen Canyon (Arizona), and Yellow-
tail (Montana) plants.
1/ Report of the National Fuels and Energy Study Group on an assessment
of available information on energy in the United States. 87th
Congress, 2nd Session. September 21, 1962.
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.,,of 2W , C eremkhovo
"%,,I'
S udyanka
EG[N0
iydroesectric Power Station Iron C e
1:o.al
Brown coal
-a it
? Nerhf ne Raw Ma'erials
RESOURCES OF THE ANGARA-YENISEY REGION
I figure 38
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PART VII. RAW MATERIAL RESOURCES
In this portion of the report, the basic energy resources of
the United States and Russia are examined.
Generation of electricity is made possible by utilizing a wide
range of materials and conditions, the traditional and most popular
ones being coal, oil, natural gas, and falling water. In addition,
nuclear fuels have made their appearance, Less important to the
United States in the energy field, at the moment, are wood, oil shale,
and peat. These three, however, provide a considerable portion of
Russia?s energy.
The energy resource figures given for the United States are
those made by our own American experts. The basis for them is known,
as well as the estimated margins of error. The figures for the Soviet
Union come from various sources, as noted, including information given
the United States group in its 1962 trip; the delegates do not know
the criteria on which they are based and, therefore, do not know if
they can be compared directly with those of the United States. Yet,
they are the only ones available, and the group is forced to take
them, while recognizing that comparisons have generalized meaning
only.
Electric energy and the source fuels compete with one another
for some purposes. For example, electricity, coal, oil, and gas all
are used for space heating and in industrial processes; and electricity
and oil are used for railroad motive power. Examination of these
73
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resources has thus a double value. The varied u e of each, however,
ed as much. or more, to the culture and eography or the
and the United States as to their stage of economic strength;
and _hese aspects of the "energy race" (or "elec ricity race") are
discussed elsewhere in this presentation.
YallinR Water
jr the field of energy, falling water is sy onymous with hydro-
power potential. The total hydropower potential of the Soviet Union
is about 465 million kilowatts; ours is 147 mill on kilowatts. These
are equivalent to a generation of about 2,100 bi lion kilowatt-hours
Elie Soviet Union and 643 billion kilowatt-hou s in the United States,
The United States already has developed 25 perce t. of its hydropower
potential, the Soviet Union only three percent. his means that the
ov_et Union still has well over 400 million kil watts of hydropower
capacity upon which to work, while the United St t.es has only 114
mil' -'_on kilowatts.
The Soviet Union has seven great rivers, se eral of which have
more hydropower potential than our most powerful the Columbia River.
(Our- largest river is, of course, the Mississiop , but the Columbia
diver has the greatest hydropower potential, T -se seven soviet
rivers are the Ob, Irtvsh, Yenisey, Angara, Vitir. Amur, an" the
j.,ena. all in Siberia and traversing the full w d? of the cruntry
d:t:om China-Mongolia border to the Arctic Ocean.
No less than 80 percent of the U.S.S.R. undo,,eloped water power
mated to be in this region, and this has l-en said b: some
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commentators to be a reason why the American group should not place
much significance upon the comparisons given above, because the
region is so remote and thinly populated. This report will comment
on that point in a later chapter.
Proved reserves of petroleum and natural gas liquids in the
United States on December 31, 1960, totaled 39 billion barrels.
Petroleum engineers judge this figure to be accurate within ten
percent, and the margin of error is probably on the plus side; i.e.,
the figure is probably low because engineering estimates tend to be
conservative.
Estimates of reserves of petroleum in the Soviet Union are
sketchy, uncertain, and contradictory. Reasoning from Soviet refer-
ences to the relation between reserves and rate of production, a
1960 United States delegation of petroleum engineers to the Soviet
Union estimated U.S.S.R. reserves at the end of that year to be 24
billion barrels. Other estimates place the reserves at 34 billion
barrels. These figures do not include natural gas liquids, but the
exclusion does not matter here, because the amount is swallowed in
the uncertainty engendered by this wide range. Eight-tenths are in
the Urals-Volga region.
The foregoing figures are for proved reserves. That means oil
(a) whose presence is known with some assurance and (b) that can be
recovered under existing conditions of cost and sales price--under
75
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." .tip Cry
ONO
L!
7D
01! Fill
POSSIBLE (Clrens in 9mri!I parts
1 of which oil will be found)
Som 'ho...
l h. U-d S,.f
Cow -d L?A~.~> h.w Un.a+
E \1
OIL AND GAS FIELDS OF THE SOVIET UNION
Figure 39
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Areas' in vn.c;-. ms'. f~t.:re - ... ?_ '.e ?,a:...
FAVC IE kC ^1FAVOFA&E '.!140R""?r"-:,?--
J ~T Aran fi~aa: sed:mentsfl e
sf 5 61 tomp_exlt, v
CL!!_Ld favorab.e, b.:t - r. inq
permit once
~, 'MFAV09A?IE
~`~ Areas '_ vhic". It 16 '~n15ke1Y that o.. enn a .s s__t_... a