NOTE ON COLOMBIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R001800010033-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: October 31, 1962
• Content Type: NOTES

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COLOMBIA: Crisis expected in the cabinet
within the next three days. President
Valencia's two month old government is under
fire for not taking foreceful action against
rural banditry, but also there are personal
animosities and jealousies -- some of this
brought into open by dissension over support-
ing US stand on Cuba. Valencia pro-US on
matter; Defense Minister Ruiz hanging back.
State Department review completed
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cables renort
the USSR has requested clearance for a flight
of an IL-18 carrying Mikoyan to Havana via
ILL anada, and New YBrk. Mikoyan is to
leave Moscow I November, stop over one day
in New York and then proceed to havana. No
reason is given but it is speculated that he
is to put pressure on Castrd.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
THE CRISIS
USSR/CUBA
31 October 1962
PREPARED FOR THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.
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THE SITUATION IN CUBA
Further analysis of low-level photography 25X1
Oprovides clear evidence that construction and con-
cealment have continued at the MRBM sites in Cuba since
Limited and poor photograp precludes a
posit ve assessment of construction activity at IRBM sites.
There is no evidence that the Soviets are dismantling or
vacating any of the sites.
Many of the missile erectors at the MRBM sites have
been moved from their hardstands and are no longer visible.
There is evidence that at least one of these erectors and
most of the missile-associated equipment have been concealed
in the woods. As long as missile erectors remain near the
MRBM sites, their full operational capability is not af-
fected.
Launch stands, cabling, and other launching compon-
ents remain in place at each of the MRBM sites. Removal
of the cabling would probably be the first step in disman-
tling operations.
Construction activity at 25X1
bunkers has continuedt Sagua La Grande= 25X1
MRBM Site 2 and at San Cristobal MRBM Sites 1 and 3.
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Analysis of Soviet merchant ship movements indicates
that it would take a minimum of two weeks, and more prob-
ably three, to assemble in Cuban ports those Soviet dry-
cargo ships with hatches suitable for loading missiles.
Dismantling and movement of essential missile facili-
ties to port areas could probably be accomplished within
about 24 hours, but about a week would be required for
loading.
Inside Cuba, the armed forces remain mobilized. Cu-
ban radios have announced military exercises, which began
yesterday and areltot-continue through 2 November. I I
The Krons a -c ass su c a
went aground near Banes on 28 October has still not been
refloated.
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U Thant's conversations with Castro yesterday went
badl
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the Cubans
refuse any form of inspection or any foreign presence in
their territory. U Thant still has hopes of "shaking them
out" of this position in meetings set for this morning. If
not, he may call a Security Council meeting for Thursday
to seek more guidance.
guarantee would be acceptable to him--be injected into ITN
discussions of the issue. Soviet propaganda media have be-
gun to refer to these as "just Cuban demands."
that Castro is insisting that his "five points"--deman
for major US concessions before any US non-aggression
Cuban propaganda themes yesterday strongly suggest
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Soviet First Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsov yester-
day again assured Ambassador Stevenson "emphatically" that
the offensive missiles in Cuba would be dismantled and re-
moved, after which verification could be undertaken by any
means the US desired. He said Khrushchev had told him dis-
mantling would take two or three weeks.
Kuznetsov referred several times to removal of US "bases
which threatened the Soviet Union as they hadremoved their base
in Cuba which threatened the US."
The UN Secretary-General's office has already beer, in
touch with the International Committee of the Red Cross,
which has agreed to inspect shipping reaching Cuba. The
ICRC is thinking in terms of a staff of 30 which would be
briefed in New York before beginning its work.
Foreign Minister Gromyko told Ambassador Kohler yes-
terday that the USSR wants to reach agreement as quickly
as possible on the basis of the Kennedy-Khrushchev exchange
of letters.
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Soviet UN officials appear to be trying to convince
neutralist representatives that the lesson of the Cuban
crisis is "the sinister nature" of all foreign bases and
the need for their liquidation, in particular Guantanamo.
In the Geneva talks on a nuclear test ban, a Soviet
delegate argued that the Cuban settlement reduces interna-
tional tension to a point where the West should drop its
demands for international controls and on-site inspection.
REACTION AND PROPAGANDA
Moscow propaganda expresses concern that the US still
harbors aggressive intentions against Cuba and that Cuban
exile groups are plotting against the Castro regime. Mos-
cow has warned that the crisis has not ended and has called
for "strict fulfillment" of US pledges of "noninterference
in the :internal affairs of Cuba . "
Soviet propaganda thus far gives no clear indication
of policy decisions concerning future diplomatic efforts.
A Moscow commentator, however, has endorsed Castro's five
demands of 28 October as "just proposals," and the East
German Neues Deutschland also has called for the US to
evacuate its Guantanamo base.
Additional themes which have received a fair amount
of emphasis in Soviet broadcasts are calls for removal
of the US quarantine of Cuba and for'the removal of US
missile bases in Turkey.
Izvestiya yesterday gave readers a relatively clear
picture of Soviet withdrawal in the face of US threats,
but otherwise Moscow has shown considerable sensitivity
to suggestions of a Soviet retreat, hailing the settlement
as "a major victory for Soviet policy."
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Chinese Communists are making their opposition to
Soviet policy on Cuba increasingly clear. The editorial
in today's People's Daily says that President Kennedy has
given nothing but "empty promises" and that his "so-called
assurance" against invading Cuba is only a "hoax."
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there are five Soviet tankers (LISICHANSK,
MIR, KARL MARX, GROZNY and VLADIMIR), four Soviet dry-cargo
vessels (BELOVODSK, E PUGACHEV, MICHURINSK and CHERNYAKOVSK)
and one Czechoslovak dry -cargo vessel (KLADNO) en route to
Cuba. the GROZNY and the 13ELOVODSK
were waiting, dead in e wa er, near the quarantine line.
KLADNO was hove to in the same areal
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October 31, 19?.2
THE SITUATION IN CUBA
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main difference we see is improved camouflage and conceal-
ment.
There is no indication of preparations to dismantle
the sites.
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Some of the medium-range missile erectors have beer. re-
moved from sight, but at least one of these is concealer in
the woods near its previous position. As long as the er3c-
tors stay near their sites, full operational capability is
not reduced.
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0
We estimate that it would take at least two weeks, Pore
probably three, to assemble the Soviet ships we believe to
be missile transporters in Cuban ports. The missile facili-
ties could actually be torn down and moved to port in 24
hours, but loading would take a week.
U Thant's conversations with Castro yesterday made lit-
tle headway. The Cubans refuse any form of inspection or
foreign presence on their territor;T.
Kuznetsov, however, yesterday emphatically assured A%-
bassador Stevenson that the missiles will be dismantled and
removed in two or three weeks, after which we can have a.ny
verification process we want.
The International Red Cross has agreed to provide insp
tors for shipping reaching Cuba.
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3oviet diplomats and propagandists continue t'aetr e'-
forts to broaden the Kennedy-Khrushchev agreement to suc!i
matters as control of Cuban exile activities, and even tie
issues of Guantanamo and US missiles in Turkey.
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