REQUEST FOR SPECIAL ESTIMATE CONCERNING SOUTHEAST ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000800040037-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: June 12, 1961
• Content Type: MF

proved For Release 2003/0 , _ _ ~QP~ B01676R000800040037-2
ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
WASHINGTON 25, D. C.
JUN 1 ;" 1961
Refer to: 1-18,631/61
SUBJECT: Request for Special Estimate Concerning Southeast Asia
[t seems to us that the recent spate of information indicating
the possibility of a major North Vietnamese and Chinese Communist
build-up, directed toward Southeast Asia, calls for an urgent appraisal
of North Vietnamese and Chinese Communist intentions. t should
therefore like to request a special NlE on this subject, for completion
at the earliest possible date, which [would suggest be left for
negotiation.
[ realize the difficulty of making the necessary assumptions
concerning the course of the Geneva Conference and the possibility
of SEATO or US action. It would be useful, however, to cover North
Vietnamese and Chinese Communist aims at Geneva, what their con-
current actions in the area might be, and their reaction to such
contingencies as (1) a result of the Geneva Conference that left
a Souvanna Phouma government that included Pathet Lao representa-
tives; (2) introduction of US forces to hold the key Mekong River
points in Laos. A sharpening of the present somewhat diffuse
estimate of the effects of China's internal situation on her actions
in the Southeast Asia area would also seem desirable.
These are suggestions for scope, and it may be that they would
make the estimate too diverse. The central question concerns the
evaluation of the Communist build-up and whether it means we are
in for a highly determined offensive no matter what.
OSD REVIEW COMPLETED
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Approved; For,Releasi
Paul A. Nitze
assistant Secretary oT defense (ISA,~]
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 ~ppr F r RRelease 2003/04/24 :CIA-RDP80B01676R000800
~~`~I$~~NDUM FOR: Mr. Dulles
A copy of this memo has been sent to Ting
Sheldon, as Acting DD/I, for necessary action.
After you have noted we will show this to General
Cabell.
t:
~.fiSE(( DD(1AA3TTJune 61)
Approved For Release 2003/04/24 :CIA-RDP$~0~~1676R00080
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