LETTER TO THE HONORABLE MCGEORGE BUNDY FROM RAY S. CLINE

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CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1
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December 19, 2016
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October 25, 2006
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27
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January 6, 1966
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Approved For Release 2006/117Q1 QiA7:RE),PMJ301676R000400190027-1 Atts: OCI No. 0482/65, 4 Jan 66 "Evolution of Communist Positions Cpncerning Negotiations" No. 0483/66, 5 Jan 66 "The Five-Point Program of the National RSC:du Liberation Front, the 4-Point Proposal etc Distribution Orig - Addressee Watts 1 - DCI w/atts (RDK put in a DCI briefing book) 1 - DDCI w/atts,/ 1 - Ed Applewhite (via WI) 1 - Policy Dissem w/o atts 1 - 0/CR Liaison w/o attivjanuttr_y 1966 1 - DDI Chrono w/o atts 1 - RSC Chrono w/o atts Dear Mac: I am responding to your query of a few days ago by sending two studies, somewhat overlapping, of the Communist position on political settlement of the Vietnam conflict. One is a close textual study of the key provisions of the Geneva Accords of 1954, the NFLVN "five points" and the Hanoi "four points;" and the other is a current analysis of the "Evolution of Communist Positions Concerning Negotiations" in Vietnam. I suggest you read the first one first if you have time to study it care- fully; the second one stresses the more recent manipulation of the tricky terminology employed by the Communists. Both studies make clear that the basic aim of the Hanoi regime, supported vehemently by Peking, is a political settlement creating a unified, Communist controlled Vietnscm (North and South). Naturally, the American commitment to an independent, non-Communist South Vietnam is incompatible with this aim, Which theCommunists argue, erroneously, was guaranteed by the 1954 agreements. Hanoi may settle for postponement of its aim in this respect, but it is hard to see any compromise possible between the Colnlvmist concept and the American commitment. .$incerely. y 5. Cline Deputy Di tor for Intelligence Attachments: a/s ?d/ .,- The Honorable McGeorge aunay--- Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs The White House 25X1 v10 1/CDF Pac: Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006t-MpltDEAMIAU000400190027-1 NO FOREIGN DISSEM RESEARCH MEMORANDUM 5 January 1966 No. 0483/66 Copy No. THE FrVE-POINT PROGRAM OF THE NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT, THE FOUR-POINT PROPOSAL OF PHAM VAN DONG AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE GENEVA ACCORDS DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE CONFIDENTIAL GROUP I lExcluded from automatic] downgrading or declassification Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 :,CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 WARNING This Document contains information affecting the Na- tional Defense of the United States, within the mean- ing of Title 18, Sections 793 and 794, of the U.S. Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or receipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. The reproduction of this form is prohibited. Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For ReleaseeffkibilMWAV1676R000400190027-1 NO FOREIGN DISSEM THE FIVE-POINT PROGRAM OF THE NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT, THE FOUR-POINT PROPOSAL OF PHAM VAN DONG AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE GENEVA ACCORDS I. INTRODUCTION Vietnamese Communists-- including spokesmen for both the National Liberation Front (NLF) and the DRV -- gen- erally tend to shy away from any positive discussion of "negotiations" and prefer instead to talk about their terms or conditions for "settlement" of the war in Viet- nam which, of course, they blame entirely on "US aggres- sion". Over the past nine months, Communist remarks about such a settlement have generally been based on or at least made reference to the so-called Five-Point "Program" of the NLF, the Four-Point proposal of Pham Van Dong and, particularly, to the "Geneva Accords". Both Hanoi and the NLF claim that, in essence, they are asking for nothing but a strict observance of the agreements made at Geneva in 1954, and, further, that the Front's program and Dong's four points are really nothing but a condensation or "explanation" of the es- sential elements of these Accords. (On 4 January 1966, for example, the DRV Foreign Ministry stated that Dong's four-point proposal is "a concentrated expres- sion of the essential military and political provi- sions of these agreements".) Hanoi and NLF comments on Communist conditions for a Vietnam settlement have generally been confusing, full of calculated and frequently disingenuous ambiguity, involved a considerable measure of distorted historical half-truths, and sometimes, contained outright perver- sions of historical fact. To sort out the Communists' real aims and discern the objectives their proposals are intended to achieve, it is necessary to examine not only the actual texts of these proposals but also to take a careful look at what the Geneva Accords really were, what they actually said, and what the real relationship is between their provisions and the programs enunciated by the Front and Hanoi. eiNY-BWHAsEl Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM II. THE 1954 GENEVA ACCORDS The term "Geneva Accords is a loose description for a series of four interrelated documents produced produced by a conference on Indochina convened in Geneva on 8 May 1954 (the day after the fall of Dien Bien Phu) and attended by representatives of the USSR, the United Kingdom, the Chinese Peoples Republic, the United States, the DRAT, and the three "Associated States" of Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. These documents include three "Agreement(s) on the Cessation of Hostilities", dated 20 July 1954 (one each for Vietnam, Laos, and Cam- bodia) and a "Final Declaration of the Geneva confer- ence" dated 21 July 1954. An appreciation of the rele- vance of these documents to the present situation in Vietnam requires a clear understanding of the precise ends they were written to serve, the climate in which they were drafted, and the position taken on their sub- stance by the United States and the legal predecessor of the present GVN at the time they were issued. Each of the three cease fire agreements bears two signatures. In all three cases Ta Quang Buu (then DRV Vice Minister for National Defense) signed on be- half of the Commander-in-Chief of the Peoples Army of Vietnam. The agreement on Cambodia was countersigned by General Nhiek Tioulong on behalf of the Commander- in-Chief of the Khmer National Armed Forces. The cease fire agreements for Vietnam and for Laos were both countersigned by a French general (Brigadier Gen- eral Delteii) on behalf of the Commander-in-Chief of the French Union Forces in Indo-China. The representa- tive of the legal predecessor of the present GVN (Tran Van Do, now the GVN's Foreign Minister) did not sign the cease fire agreement and, on 17 July 1954, filed a formal protest with the French Delegation on the grounds that his government was not being kept fully abreast of all the developments in the negotiations and, further, took specific exception to several provi- sions subsequently embodied in the final document. On 22 July 1954 Ngo Dinh Diem, then Prime Minister of the Associated State of Vietnam, formally denounced the cease fire agreement as an "iniquity"against which his government had raised "a most solemn protest". -2- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENT' AL NO FOREIGN DISSEM The United States did not sign any of the Four 1954 Geneva documents. On 21 July President Eisenhower is- sued a statement which said, in part, that the United States had not been a belligerent in the war and "Accordingly, the United States has not itself been party to or bound by the de- cisions taken by the conference, but it is our hope that it will lead to the es- tablishment of peace consistent with the rights and needs of the countries con- cerned. The agreement contains features which we do not like, but a great deal depends on how they work in practice ... as loyal members of the United Nations ... the United States will not use force to disturb the settlement. We also say that any renewal of Communist aggres- sion would be viewed by us as a matter of grave concern". On the same day (21 July) the US Delegate to the Con- cluding Plenary Session of the Geneva Conference (Un- der Secretary Smith) reiterated in a formal statement that the US was not "prepared to join in a declaration by the conference such as is submitted". They went on to make a unilateral declaration of US position which, echoing President Eisenhower, contained the stipulation that the US would "view any renewal of the aggression in violation of the aforesaid agreements with grave concern and as seriously threatening international peace and security." The two Geneva documents most directly relevant to the present situation in Vietnam are the "agreement on the Cessation of Hostilities in Viet Nam" and the 1954 Conference's "Final Declaration". Both are sloppily drafted and decidedly ambiguous in certain key sections. Both were produced under great pressure, in great haste, and were primarily designed to make possible an early cessation of hostilities which would permit France to disengage militarily from Indo-China. The terms each contained were dictated as much by domestic French po- litical considerations as by the realities and require- ments of the situation in Vietnam. The several partici- pants in the Geneva conference each had their own ob- jectives and motives, but all were disposed to believe -3- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 216oRkiCalfini7, 6R000400190027-1 NO FOREIGN DISSEM that an early acquisition of DRV control over all of Viet- nam was virtually inevitable. The Accords were an in- terim settlement of an immediate situation. Longer-term problems were ignored or discounted. In particular, the two documents in question were far from explicit on three key issues: the future political shape of Vietnam, the mechanics of reunification, and the conceptual defini- tion of what the term "Vietnam" was supposed to mean. On Vietnam's political shape and future, the cease fire agreement simply. states (in Article 14) that: "Pending the elections which will bring about the unification of Viet-Nam, the con- duct of civil administrations in each re- grouping zone shall be in the hands of the party whose forces are to be regrouped and by virtue of present agreement". No time frame for these elections is stipulated here, but the "Final Declaration developed this point in more explicit detail: "In order to insure that sufficient prog- ress in the restoration of peace has been made, and that here the necessary condi- tions obtain for free expression of the national will, general elections shall be held in July 1956, under the supervision of an international commission composed of representatives of the Member States of the International Supervisory Commission, referred to in the agreement on the ces- sation of hostilities". Thede-retnarks9n elections,coupled with the statement in the Final Declaration that "the military demarcation line is provisional and should not in any way be inter- preted as constituting a political or territorial boundary", make it clear that the participants in the conference were looking to early reunification, almost certainly un- der Hanoi's domination, and never really addressed them- selves to the problems of possible political future of the Associated State of Viet-Nam. At that time, this "State of Vietnam" was very much under French political -4- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFI DENTI AL NO FOREIGN DISSEM control and throughout the course of the 1946-54 war the French had adamantly refused to give genuine political authority to any non-communist Vietnamese government. Technically, the Associated State's writ extended over all of Vietnam, though in fact its authority was obviously reduced to that portion of the country which lay below the 17th Parallel. The State of Viet-Nam appears On the roster of par- ticipants, but its name does not appear in any of the Four key documents. Instead, the cease fire agreement and the Final Declaration refer simply to the "regrouping zones of the two parties" -- thel parties being the French Union and the DRV. At that time, of course, few if any participants in the conference foresaw Diem's political survival, South Vietnamese acquisition of genuine political independence from France, or creation of the begin- nings of a non-communist Vietnamese nation. On this key issue, the representatives of the US and the nascent GVN were diplomatically and po- litically very much out of step with the rest of the conference participants. President Eisenhower's previously cited 21 July statement, for example, notes that "we already have a Chief of Mission at Saigon, the capital of Viet-Nam and this Embassy will, of course, be maintained." Behind that statement lies an attitude and the germ of a policy which the US has pursued consistently since 1954 in supporting the development of non-Communist Vietnamese independence; but it is an attitude which was repugnant to France at the time of Geneva and, of course, was anathema to the DRV. It is essentially on this matter of the proper role and the legitimate rights of what became the4wesent GVN that current interpretations of the true im- port or intent of the 1954 Accords differ sok radieally. -5- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM III, THE FIVE-POINT "PROGRAM" OF THE NLF We will not attempt to review here the growth of the GVN, the outbreak and rise of Hanoi directed- insurgency in South Vietnam, the creation of the National Liberation Front and the escalation of the war which led to the situation which existed in the early spring of 1965. On 22 March 1965 the chair- man of the NLF, Nguyen Huu Tho, allegedly held a press conference in "a liberated area" during the course of which he made a five-point statement broad- cast by the NLF radio on 23 March and subsequently replayed widely by Hanoi. This statement--the so- called "NLF Five-Point Program"--is actually not a program at all but an analysis of the then current situation and an exhortation to the South Vietnamese people and their potential supporters around the world. Tho began with a review of what he described ten years of steadily increasing involvement in SoL:th Vietnam by the "US imperialists" who (by 1965) had completely revealed their "war mongers' face" and status as the "deadly enemy" of the Vietnamese people. He then went on to make his five points. (a) The first develops the theme that the US has disregarded the Geneva Agreements, intensified the war in the south and is the enemy of the Viet- namese and all Indochinese people. This sounds a theme which Communist propagandists have played ever since with increasing intensity: that the US sab- otaged the 1954 Geneva Accords and is solely respons- ible for the current war. (b) Thos second point stresses that the Vietnamese people are determined to drive away the "TS imperialists" and although eager for peace, pre- fer death to bondage, and with the "support of the people of the world" will certainly defeat the enemy (i.e., the US) . It also includes the remark that "at present" all negotiations would be useless "as US troops and material have not been withdrawn from South Vietnam"--strongly suggesting, but without actually saying so, that total US withdrawal is a precondition for negotiations. The most politically significant element of this second point, however, - 6 - NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM lies in Tho's comment that the recently commenced air strikes against North Vietnam were "being made in the hope of forcing the NLF to sell out its fatherland". Here we have a slippery and never explicitly delineated theme that runs throughout all Vietnamese Communist pronouncements about the future political shape of Vietnam: that the country is one nation whose capital is now Hanoi. (c) The third point takes up this theme, stressing "that Vietnam is one, that the South Vietnamese are delighted with the achievements of the North Vietnamese in struggling against the internal 'aggressors"'. The political implications of this remark are obvious, but Tho carefully avoids spelling out the present or projected future political relationship between the NLF and the DRV; or the Front's relative degree of political sub- ordination to Hanoi. (d) The "fourth point" is actually three rather convoluted paragraphs stressing the NLF's primary reliance on "its own force and ability" but simultaneously calling for moral and material assistance from "the socialist countries and nationalist countries, from all world organizations and all peace-loving peoples throughout the world". (e) The final point, while mentioning the "brilliant victories of the South Vietnamese people, is in essence an exhortation to "rural compatriots, urban compatriots and compatriots throughout the country to continue to struggle against 'TS agres- sor?!'. As is obvious to anyone who reads the text of Tho's statement, this is hardly a program and it bears little logical relationship to any of the provisions of the 1954 Geneva Accords. NLF and DRV propagandists have confidentally and accurately assumed, however, that few people would take the trouble to analyze the text of this statement (or, for that matter, the Geneva Accords) and hence have billed it as the definitive NLF position on a future settlement. The object of this by no means un- successful propaganda campaign has been to purvey widely the notion that the NLF has a simple, reason- able five-point program for settlement closely attuned to "the spirit of Geneva". -7- Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFI DENTI AL NO FOREIGN DISSEM IV. PHAM VAN DONG'S SPEECH On 8 April 1965 DRV Premier Pham Van Dong made a very long speech (over 30 close, small type, single spaced pages), presented as a "report of the DRV Gov- ernment" to the second session of the DRV National . Assembly. Dong's celebrated "four points" were ap- pended at the end of the speech, but the speech sets the stage for them and is itself worthy of careful scrutiny. Rambling, contradictory, didactic and in- transigent, this oration is not so much a "report" as an analysis of the then current political situa- tion as seen through North Vietnamese eyes, a defense of the "correctness" of DRV policy, a recitation of achievement, an exhortation to better performance on the part of the North Vietnamese people, and an ap- peal to, particularly, the Socialist (i.e. Communist) countries for assistance in the North Vietnam's strug- gle. The text makes crystal clear the DRV's convic- tion of the doctrinal rightness of its cause, the historical inevitability of victory on Hanoi's terms and the firm Vietnamese Communist belief that this victory, (as was the case in their victory over the French), will be materially assisted by rising po- litical pressures on and, above all, within the United States--pressures which will make it impossible for the US to persevere in South Vietnam. For Our analytic purposes, the most significant element of the speech is the way it describes North Vietnam's relation to the South and the war being fought there. The underlying theme is sounded in Pham Van Dong's opening sentence "the US imperialists are intensifying the aggressive war in the southern part of our country." Throughout his-speech there are fFe- quent refe-re-hces to "the southern part of our coun- try," "the northern part of our country," or to "our fatherland," a term obviously intended to denote the entire territory of both North and South Vietnam. The import of these expressions is unmistakable but Pham Van Dong quite carefully avoids the spelling out their detailed political implications. The NLF's 22 March statement (Nguyen Huu Tho's five-point program analyzed above) is mentioned sev- eral times, always in laudatory terms. Dong's speech is obviously designed, at least in part, to picL up NO FOREIGN FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM and amplify the themes there sounded. The NLF is referred to as "the mobilizer and organizer of the patriotic forces in South Vietnam." Dong claims that it has "ever higher international prestige and position, and is being more and more recognized by foreign countries and world public opinion as the sole genuine representative of the South Vietnamese people." However, he carefully avoids claiming that the NLF is or should be recognized (in the technical, legal sense of the term) as an independent govern- ment, and he is equally careful to avoid any clear explanation of Hanoi's view of the political re- lationship between the DRV and the NLF. It is quite obvious how Dong envisages the fu- ture course of Vietnamese history, though (again) he is murky on explicit details. "The DRV," he pro- claims, "a member of the Socialist camp, is steadily advancing to Socialism. This is the common achieve- ment of the Vietnamese revolution, the fruit of the common endeavor of the people of the whole country. It is a strong basis for the patriotic struggle in the south and the peaceful reunification of the coun- try." This same theme is implied throughout this speech and specifically sounded again when Dong later says "the northern part of our country, the DRV, will bring into play its great impact as the base for the liberation of South Vietnam and the peaceful reunifi- cation of the fatherland." -9- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM V. THE FOUR POINTS The last few pages of Dong's 8 April 1965 speech have the air of being tacked on and are ex- plicitly designed to counter President Johnson's 7 April speech at Johns Hopkins. It is in this concluding portion that Dong spells out what have come to be known as the DRV's "four points", which are prefaced with the comment that "the unswerving policy of the DRV government is to respect strictly the 1954 Geneva Agreements on Vietnam and to imple- ment correctly the basic provisions as embodied in the following points:" (1) Recognition of the basic national rights of the Vietnamese people--peace, independence, sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity. According to the Geneva agreements, the U.S. Govern- ment must withdraw from South Vietnam U.S. troops, military personnel, and weapons of all kinds, dismantle all U.S. military bases there, and cancel its military alliance with South Viet- nam. It must end it policy of inter- vention and aggression in south Viet- nam. According to the Geneva agree- ments, the U.S. Government must stop its acts of war against North Vietnam and completely cease all encroachments on the territory and sovereignty of the DRV. The first sentence of this point states an aspira- tion with which no one can take issue, though ob- viously the Communists on the one hand and the US and GVN on the other would attach fundamentally different definitions to the key words involved. The second sentence harks back to Chapter III ("Ban on Introduction of Fresh Troops, Military Personnel, Arms and Munitions, Military Bases") of the 20 July 1954 "Agreement on the Cessation of Hostilities on Viet-Nam." The third sentence makes a standard DRV propaganda charge. The last sentence is the most interesting. It involves an obvious reference to Article 19 of the same Chapter III ("the two parties shall ensure that the zones assigned to them . . . -10- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2a0_0/11/01: CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONF.! DENTI AL NO FOREIGN DISSEM are not used for the resumption of hostilities or to further arvaggrestive policy") with the im- plied inference that the US has taken over the colonialist role of the French Union Forces. It also involves a central element of the whole DRY thesis on the Geneva Accords: that Article 19 prohibits the kind of military support the US is giving the GVN, but not the kind of support the DRY is giving the NIP-and the Viet Cong. The rationale for this contention is developed by oblique implication in Dong's succeeding three points. (2) Pending the peaceful reunification of Vietnam, while Vietnam is still temporarily divided into two zones the military provisions of the 1954 Geneva agreements on Vietnam must be strictly respected. The two zones must refrain from entering into any military alliance with foreign coun- tries and there must be no foreign military bases, troops, or military personnel in their respective terri- tory. Again, Dong is harking back to the concept em- bodied in the cease-fire Agreement and spelled out in the 1954 Conference's "Final Declaration" that the present division of South Vietnam is only a temporary military expedient, not a per- manent political settlement. The second sentence goes directly back to Articles 18 and 19 of the Vietnam cease-fire Agreements Ch. III, but, again, implicitly claims that the provisions of these Articles apply only to what the US is doing, not to what the DRV is doing. (3) The internal affairs of South Vietnam must be settled by the South Vietnamese people themselves in accord- ance with the program of the NFLSV without any foreign interference As Dong and the DRV propagandists are aware, no reasonable man can take issue with the contention that the internal affairs of South Vietnam ought NO FOREIGN FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM to be settled by the South Vietnamese people them- selves. To say that they must be so settled "in accordance with the program of the NLF," however, is to say that the South Vietnamese people have no right to a non-Communist, non-Hanoi-controlled government. The really key word in this third point, however, is the word "foreign" in the con- cluding phrase. Dong is playing on the Geneva Accords' ambiguities and the 1954 Conference's refusal to face the question of who is and who is not a "foreigner" where South Vietnam is con- cerned. By Vietnamese Communist definition, "Viet- nam is one." Involvement by compatriots in the "northern part of the country" in the affairs of their fellow compatriots in the "southern part of the country"--also by definition--can not be classed as "foreign interference." On this semantic sleight of hand, rests the core of Hanoi's whole position on the Geneva Accords and its reasOn for claiming that while these Accords prohibit US support for southern independence, they do not prohibit DRV support and direction of southern insurgency. (4) The peaceful reunification of Vietnam is to be settled by the Viet- namese people in both zones, without any foreign interference. This is essentially a restatement of point three with a slightly different twist. Again, the key issue involves what is and what is not "foreign interference." Dong declared that it was the view of the DRV that the four points stand he had expounded was "the basis for the soundest political settle- ment of the Vietnam problem. If this basis is recognized, favorable conditions will be created with the peaceful settlement of the Vietnam people, and it will be possible to consider the reconvening of an international conference along the pattern of the 1954 Geneva Conference on Vietnam." He also made it quite explicit, however, that in the opinion of the DRV, "any approach contrary to the aforementioned stand is inappropriate; any approach _12- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM tending to secure UN intervention in the Viet- nam situation is also inappropriate. Such approaches are basically at variance with the 1954 Geneva Agreements on Vietnam." -13- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM VI. THE RELATION BETWEEN THE FOUR POINTS AND THE GENEVA ACCORDS Pham Van Dong's four point proposal purports to be based on the Geneva Accords andthephraseology of these points is obviously intended to echo language appearing in some of the Geneva agreements' key ar- ticles. The paragrapiti.Dong's speech immediately preceding!, his statement of the four points. --,para- graphs which take up and criticize President John- son's Johns Hopkins address of 7 April 1965 -- under- line this alleged connection between the DRV's pres- ent stand and the conclusions of the 1954 conference and develop the complementary argument that the US is the,s01e violator of the agreements reached at Geneva. ("The US imperialists have never respected the 1954 Geneva agreements on Cambodia and the 1954 and 1962 Geneva agreements on Laos.") These para- graph. introducing the four points also claim that the US has been forced to refer to the 1954 Accords, but does so only with the aim of "distorting" their basic principles, "in order to perpetuate our coun- try's division, and to consider the north and the south as two entirely different nations." The Geneva theme has been stressed repeatedly by DRV spokesmen and propagandists since publica- tion of Pham Van Dong's speech. The DRV's ob- vious intent to play on the emotional con- notations which mention of these agreements arouse throughout the world (and in the United States it- self,) and to portray the DRV's present conditions for a political settlement as but the logical ex- tension of the interim arrangements devised to stop the fighting in 1954. Hanoi also wishes to direct world attention from its own violations of the 1954 agreements by making the US the villain of the piece and claiming that it is the US alone who has sabo- taged them. The DRV's case is based on selective references to certain provisions of a complicated se- ries of agreements, which Hanoi's propagandists can confidently assume that most of their target audi- ences have never studied in detail. Hanoi apparently hopes that by constant, repetition it-can have its interpretation of the 1954 Accords generally ac- cepted, more or less uncritically, as constituting the agreed parameters for any current discussion of -14- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFI DENTI AL NO FOREIGN DISSEM the present situation in Vietnam. The DRV's settle- ment conditions -- and even more so the so-called Five-Point Program of the NLF -- really have very little to do with the details of the '54 Agreements when studied carefully as a total package. Hanoi's references to the 1962 Laos settlement involve an even more blatant violation of historical accuracy, again perpetrated to play on the emotional overtones of "Geneva" in the confident belief that few will examine the historical record with sufficient care to recognize the deception involved. Actually the 1962 Laos settlement is a very dangerous precedent for Hanoi to cite. The situa- tion that existed in Laos in 1962 was demonstrably caused by persistent and willful NVN/Pathet Lao re- fusal to abide by the provisions of the 1954 cease fire Agreement for Laos. What the Communists in- sisted upon for Laos then is precisely what they would adamantly deny the US and the GVN the right to request for Vietnam, now: .a new set of 'agree- ments based on the realities of the existing situa- tion and not tied or bound by the technical provi- sions of language drafted in 1954 to handle a quite different set of problems. -15.- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM VII. COMMUNIST OBJECTIVES The DRV's Four-point "settlement" proposal and the NLF's "five points" to which it is ciosu. related were initially propounded and have been insistently repeated for a variety of reasons. One, as we have seen, has been to appropriate the mantle of "Geneva" and establish a climate of in- ternational political and diplomatic opinion in which the import of crucial passages of the 1954 Accords are interpreted in a manner useful to Hanoi's ends. A more basic objective, however, has been that of employing the proven propaganda tech- nique of prolonged and insistent repetition to es- tablish an advantageous political position from which Hanoi can bargain if it should ever decide that its interests would be better served by some form of discussions or negotiations rather than-- or in addition to--physical combat. The DRV's Four-Point proposal, if its key terms are defined according to the Communist lexicon, is tantamount to total North Vietnamese victory and the eradication of everything US policy has been framed to support and achieve in South Vietnam. On the face of it, Hanoi's position is unrealistic and palpably unacceptable. By sticking to this position for almost a year, however, by repeating it time without number, by directing attention away from its intrinsic faults and arrogant assumptions to peripheral issues (e.g., whether it is a "pre- condition for negotiations" or "basis for settle- ment"), Hanoi is endeavoring to have its adherence to this position become so familiar to the rest of the world that any movement from this stance will be universally hailed as a great "concession" which, in turn, will generate severe domestic and international political pressure on the US and the GVN to be equally "forthcoming". In short, Hanoi seems to be acting on the assumption that a noisy insistence on an outrageous position, over a suf- ficient period of time, will stand a good chance of making a subsequent preposterous position toler- ably palatable to its enemies. This is an ancient technique of Asiatic bazaar bargaining and as well as a commonplace tactic in Communist diplomatic -16-- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 ? CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM procedure. It was effectively used by the Chinese Communists in Korea in the early 1950's. It is almost certainly the technique Hanoi plans to use should the present Vietnamese war ever come to the conference table. NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 6 6N11 lfrlbtAgfrAE 1 676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/16101RBEffiwooLtooi9oo27-1 NO FOREIGN DISSEM INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM EVOLUTION OF COMMUNIST POSITIONS CONCERNING NEGOTIATIONS 4 January 1966 OCT No. 0482/65 Copy No. DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Office of Current Intelligence CONFIDENTIAL GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 WARNING This Document contains information affecting the Na- tional Defense of the United States, within the mean- ing of Title 18, Sections 793 and 794, of the U.S. Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or receipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. The reproduction of this form is prohibited. Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM OCI No. 0482/65 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Current Intelligence 4 January 1966 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM Evolution of Communist Positions Concerning Negotiations Summary The DRV position on settling the war has remained firmly based on its four-point proposal set forth last April. Sev- eral of these points are an accurate gist of the 1954 Geneva agreements; others, however, depart from both the spirit and the letter of the accords. Hanoi has not made explicit whether it regards the carrying out of the four points as preconditions for negotiations on the war; its most recent statements, however, implicitly suggest that it does. The peace terms of the National Liberation Front have never been precisely delineated by the Communists; both Hanoi and the Front, however, regard a manifesto of Front intent in the war published last March as containing their peace proposals. In general, the Front has taken a tougher position than Hanoi on the question of US withdrawal from Vietnam prior to the start of negotiations. Peking has maintained the most adamant of the Asian Communists against negotiations both,condemned Soviet encouragement of talks warned Hanoi against starting negotiations. Soviet Union apparently is encouraging Hanoi to seek political alternatives to the war, the indications are that Moscow is prepared for the time being to continue military aid to the DRV. stand of any It has and obliquely Although the NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 29b 1_1/0_11 : QIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 DENTI AL NO FOREIGN DISSEM North Vietnam 1. The North Vietnamese attitude toward a "set- tlement" of the war has remained basically unchanged since DRV Premier Pham Van Dong put forward a four- point proposal on the conflict in a speech on 8 April 1965 before the DRV National Assembly. This proposal was issued as a reply to President Johnson's speech of 7 April at Johns Hopkins University. Dong's four points were as follows: a. Recognition of the basic national rights of the Vietnamese people-- peace, independence, sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity. According to the Geneva agreements, the US Government must withdraw from South Vietnam US troops, mil- itary personnel, and weapons of all kinds, dismantle all US military bases there, and cancel its mili- tary alliance with South Vietnam. It must end its policy of interven- tion and aggression in South Viet- nam. According to the Geneva agree- ments, the US Government must stop its acts of war against North Viet- nam and completely cease all en- croachments on the territory and sovereignty of the DIIV b. Pending the peaceful reunification of Vietnam, while Vietnam is still temporarily divided into two zones the military provisions of the 1954 Geneva agreements on Vietnam must be strictly respected. The two zones must refrain from entering into any minilary alliance with foreign coun- tries and there must be no foreign military bases, troops, or military personnel in their respective ter- ritory. c. The internal affairs of South Vietnam must be settled by the South Vietnam- ese people themselves in accordance with the program of the NFLSV without any foreign interference. -2- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01: CIA-RDP80601676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM d. The peaceful reunification of Vietnam is to be settled by the Vietnamese people in both zones, without any for- eign interference. 2.'After listing these points, Dong asserted that the DRV Government considered the "stand" expounded in them "the basis for the soundest political settlement of the Vietnam problem." If this "basis is recognized," Dong stated, "favorable conditions" will be created for a "peaceful settlement." The North Vietnamese apparently attached this vague formulation to their proposals in order to leave themselves some maneuvering room should they at some point decide to modify or expand their terms. Subsequently the North Vietnamese have never made it completely clear whether they regard the four points as preconditions for negotiations or only as proposals to be discussed after negotiations have been started. 3. Last May, the chief DRV representative in Paris told the French that the four points were to be considered "working principles" which were subject to negotiation once the US formally "recognized" them. On the issue of a US troop withdrawal, the DRV offi- cial stated that this was only a "principle" and that the timing could be worked out in the course of talks. This was the softest presentation of Hanoi's terms ever made by a DRV representative. Other DRV offi- cials abroad, however, also suggested in private last 'summer that the timing of US troop withdrawal would not be a problem in starting negotiations. 4. The DRV's position on this question, however, was again obscured by the remarks of Ho Chi Minh in an interView with 4 prominent French newsman which was broadcast on 15 August by Hanoi radio. Although he did not explicitly make US troop withdrawal a precon- dition for talks, he did call for "tangible proof" that the US accepted all of the DRV's four points. Since Ho's interview, other DRV statements have also occasionally called for tangible or "concrete" proof that the ps accepts the four points. They imply, but do not state explicitly that such proof must be given before any talks are started. -3- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM 5. The strongest formulation along this line was contained in the DRV commentary of 30 December on the latest US efforts to get negotiations going. It was asserted in this commentary that "to solve the Vietnam problem," the "only way" is for the US to "solemnly declare and prove by actual deeds" its acceptance of the DRV's four points. The com- mentary seemed, by its wording, to thrust the is- sue of US troop withdrawal into the forefront as a DRV demand, and suggested there could be no movement toward any talks until the US makes a firm commitment on pulling out its forces. 6. In his speech, of 8 April, Dong claimed that the DRV's four-point proposal represented the "basic provisions" of the 1954 Geneva agreement on Vietnam, and that the DRV was therefore only calling for a "correct implementation" of the 1954 accords in order to solve the Vietnam problem. Since April, Hanoi has often reiterated this point, calling the four points the "essence" of the Geneva agreements. A comparison of the four points with the 1954 accords reveals that the DRV claim is only partially justified. The first two of the DRV terms express the spirit, if not the letter, of the agreements--particularly the "Final Declaration of the Geneva Conference" which was ap- pended to the accords--but the others contain ele- ments introduced by Hanoi to suit its own purposes. 7. The Geneva agreements, asndoes Pham Vann" Dongls-first.poipt,..stated that a final settle- ment of the Vietnam question should respect the in- dependence, unity, and territorial integrity of the Vietnamese people. The 1954 accords, however, did not call specifically for a withdrawal of US weap- ons or equipment or a cessation of US "aggression." Instead the Geneva agreements stipulated the with- drawal of all forces and equipment to the respec- tive zones of Vietnam controlled by the, combatants and prohibited the fresh introduction of any troops or war materiel. Thus, the US is justified in con- demning the clandestine introduction of North Viet- namese forces and equipment into South Vietnam since 1954. -4- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Releaseat1/91 :LIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Fl DENTI AL NO FOREIGN DISSEM 8. The second point in Pham Van Dong's pro- posals is an accurate gist of the intent of the 1954 accords. The accords stated that the demili- tarized zone should not be interpreted as a polit- ical or territorial boundary, but only as a military demarcation line. The accords also referred to the goal of eventual reunification of Vietnam, and banned military alliances, foreign military bases, and so forth, pending reunification. 9. In the last two points of Dong's pro- posals, however, the DRV has departed almost entirely from the spirit as well as the letter of the Geneva Agreements. The thrust of points 3 and 4 is that the settlement of Vietnamese polit- ical affairs is to be left entirely to the Viet- namese people without any foreign supervision. The Geneva agreements, however, definitely pro- vided for an international supervisory presence, at least while the initial arrangements for a further political settlement were being worked out in Vietnam. The International Control Com- mission (ICC), set up under the accords, had as one of its missions the :supervision, of elections in 1956 in both North and South Vietnam for the expression of the "national will" on the question of reunification. 10. Although left unstated, it appeared to be the intent of the Geneva agreements that an international presence would also be necessary to guarantee the establishment of democratic government after elections on the issue of reuni- fication. 11. Despite Hanoi's constant harping in its propaganda on the necessity of adherence to the Geneva Accords, DRV spokesmen in private have indicated that the agreements could be ignored in whole or in part if circumstances warranted. The head of the North Vietnamese liaison mission to the ICC, for example, told an ICC member last August that the "question of the Geneva agreements at the end of the war depends on the circumstances of the war and its termination. New accords might -5- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM be written, or the Geneva agreements might still be viable." The DRV official criticized the present functioning of the ICC, but implied that Hanoi might be willing to accept some modified version of the commission in a future settlement. The National Liberation Front 12. The so-called "peace terms" of the Com- munist-controlled Front group in South Vietnam were set forth on 22 March interspersed within a rambling five-point statement. Essentially, the Front's five points were as follows: a. The condemnation of US policy in Vietnam along with a catalogue of US war "crimes" there since 1954. b. An expression of the determination of the Vietnamese "people" to "kick out" the US "imperialists" from Vietnam and to "liberate"South Vietnam. According to the state- ment, the Vietnamese will never stop fighting until their ultimate objectives of "independence, democ- racy, peace, and neutrality" have been obtained. The "only way out" for the US is to "withdraw" from South Vietnam. The statement de- clared that "at present, all ne- gotiations are useless" on the war as long as "the US imperialists do not withdraw all troops, weap- ons, and means of war from Vietnam, and as long as the Liberation Front does not have the "decisive voice." By this the Front apparently meant that it should have a dominant voice in any political settlement of the conflict. -6- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01: CIA-RDP80601676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM c. A pledge of determination to "ad- vance toward" the reunification of Vietnam. d. A declaration that the Front has the "full right" to receive inter- national assistance. While rely- ing primarily on its own force, the Front "will buy war materiel from any country," and will call "if necessary" for foreign volun- teers. e. A call on all South Vietnamese peo- ple to join in the fight to "lib- erate" the South. 13. At its publication, the Front statement was primarily touted by the Viet Cong as a manifesto of their intent in the war. It was not until af- ter Pham Van Dong's speech setting forth the DRV's four-point peace proposal that both Hanoi and the Viet Cong began to point to the Front statement of 22 March as containing the Viet Cong peace terms. Subsequent Front statements have largely echoed the 22 March manifesto, differing only in that several of them hardened the Front's position on the withdrawal of US forces. A statement of 14 June, for example, claimed that "all negotia- tions are useless" if the US imperialists "have not yet withdrawn" from South Vietnam, A Front cent-ill-committee statement Of 25 November, how- ever, did not attach any condition of timing to a withdrawal as.a preliminary to a settlement. -7- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDPa1676R000400190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM 14. Although there is no explicit evidence to support the contention, we believe the appar- ently harder Front position on US withdrawal during the last few months, in contrast with Hanoi's, is maintained primarily for tactical reasons by the Viet Cong. Hanoi's final position on this point, whatever it turns out to be, would probably be the deciding word if the Vietnamese Communists decided to move toward a political settlement. Communist China 15. Peking has maintained an adamant stand against negotiations on the Vietnam situation, and has repeatedly lashed out at the Soviet Union for trying to promote talks on the problem. The most recent major attack on Moscow came on 30 December 1965 in a People's Daily editorial charging that the Soviets are helping theUS in "its plot of peaceful negotiations." The Chinese asserted that such "appeasement and capitulationism" merely serve to "inflate the aggressive arrogance of the US." 16. The Chinese have continued to stress their support for the Hanoi four-point formula and the Liberation Front five-part statement on negotiations. On 14 December People's Daily reiterated the Chinese position that these form the "only correct basis" for the solution of the Vietnam question. The closest Peking has come to stating that the withdrawal of US troops was a prerequisite for negotiations came in a People's Daily editorial on 20 July, which asserted thaf- the withdrawal of US troops is "the basic point and most important prerequisite for the settle- ment of the Vietnam question" and added that so long as US forces remain in South Vietnam "there is no point" in talking about other aspects of a Vietnam settlement. -8- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 6)&11fibiWipCja1676R000400190027-1 NO FOREIGN DISSEM 17. Peking publicly disparaged the current US peace initiatives on 1 January, charging that the p use in air attacks was nothing but the prelude to a new US escalation of the war, nd asserting that the US objective in advocating "unconditional dis- cussions" w s to force the Vietnamese people to sur- render nd to accept the "permanent stay" of US troops is Vietnam. The People's Daily editorial on New Ye r's D y applauded North-VITinamese determination in the struggle with US "imperialism" and asserted that H noi had "pointedly scuttled" the US "peace intrigue." The Soviet Union 18. Immediately after the first US bombing at- tacks against the DRV, the Soviet Union appeared willing to try to arrange negotiations of some sort on Southeast Asian problems. However, as the war intensified and Chinese attacks on Soviet "collusion" with the US mounted, the USSR retreated from this position. By the end of February Moscow was already maintaining that the US must ce se its bombings be- fore there could be negotiations. While the Russians were quick to endorse the Hanoi government's four points in general terms and have firmly adhered to the position that peace in Vietnam can be found only by using the four points as a "basis," they have con- tinued to pl ce major emphasis on the impossibility of ny negotiations while the US is attacking the territory of a "fraternal state." They have advanced no other explicit preconditions to negotiations. 19. With the escalation of the Vietnam war, Soviet officials have continued to stress privately Moscow's lack of maneuver room and have clearly in- dicated their frustration over their inability to do very much to influence US policy in Southeast Asia. Although Moscow has stayed in step with Hanoi on the question of negotiations, there is enough evidence to indicate that the Russians are almost certainly using their influence to urge DRV leaders to keep flexible position in order to take full advantage of unforeseen developments and opportunities. O. The Soviet leaders apparently see no pros- pect for any immediate break in the war. They can be expected to persist in their line that a cessation -9- NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01: CIA-RDP80601676R000400190027-1 CONFI DENTI AL NO FOREIGN DISSEM of US air strikes is a necess ry first step toward talks. In this context, the forthcoming visit of one of the USSR's top leaders--party secretary Shelepin--to North Vietnam is particularly interest- ing. His visit represents a direct challenge to China's influence in Hanoi, and will mark the first trip to the DRV by a high-level Soviet leader since the Kosygin mission last February. The Soviets probably feel that the current pause in US bombing raids against the DRV provides a good opportunity to encourage Hanoi to seek political alternatives to the war. 10 NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2eporwriggimA3E 676 R 0004 00190027-1 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1 DATE TRANSMITTAL SLIP 5 Jan 66 TO: DDC I ROOM NO. 1 BUILDING REMARKS: FROM: ROOM NO. DDI BUILDING EXTENSION FORM NO .0,1 1 REPLACES FORM 36 8 I FEB 55 4,- WHICH MAY BE USED. 11( GPO :1957-0-439445 (47) Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190027-1