NIGERIA NATIONAL POLICY PAPER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000400080022-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: January 1, 1964
• Content Type: MF

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t fully revi wed the Ceatrel Intel iXOM .
i a t of State
are likely to have a mars sig
any slKartsc"s t" than to Val'
therefore s itti as attachment
those eta subjects with the request
that they considered by the African lacy t *ittee in
its final review of the paper.
2. I ouftrao t se visions in the pa. shish hive
ring on intelligence activities.
J. ACCOXXV
a. ,a-ee tear
Attic t
Planning Council
Couam*lor and Chairman, Polley
. Walt W.
Mr. Joseph Y,
ak,
ey Paper
The pro tip
In general agreemon't with t
rhieb the policy Vapor
that such ttera1 as
pervasive corruption In Vm
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R: Director of Central Intelligence
Nigeria National Policy Paper
i.. This a randum contains a recomm endation for
approval. by the Director in paragraph 5; a letter for his
signature in attached.
2. The Nigeria National Policy Paper (Basic attach..
m.ent) has been completed by an interagency working group
in which senior I/I and I/P officers participated, and
is now ready for review and approval at the departmental
level. The salient points of the paper are described in
attachment A.
S. The 1) P, the Acting Chairman of the Board of
Tonal Extisates, and the Special Assistant to the rAam
T
have reviewed and approved this paper. The Acting Chairman,
Board of National Estimates, further states that a SNIR on
Nigeria is not called for at this time. (Attachment 8).
4. While this final draft of the paper has been con-
ably revised to meet our objections to earlier drafts
,
we continue to have some reserva.tio on specific points
of policy rss a endations and Intelligence judgments, which
we have noted In an attachment to be forwarded to the Policy
Planning Council. (Attaebstent C). Our criticisms, however,
...... -~ ~.__- - -
to require Agency dtaapprova l of the paper.
acre recommend that you approve the paper
tached memorandum which I will then transmit
policy Planning Council.
Attachments: I - Tabs A a r e ...~1
. Basic NPP
RDKovar:du:2 Apr 64
Distribution: .._.. _ ---..._ ~;
w/F%fi5 5r,
Orig - Addressee w~,~~~s
1 - DDCI w; TUT. - ExDiz U,," 1 DD/P 2-AD/NE 1 - Mr. Sheldon (via CGS
2 - O/DDI (DDI Chrono & NPP Chrono)
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2 April 1964
.MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR/ INTELL ENC1i
CT: Nigeria National Policy Paper
The salient points of the Nigeria Nations-l. ? olicy
y be summarised as follows:
a. Nigeria is currently under moderate,
generally democratic, pro-Western leadership.
The Nigerian Federal structure is, however,
a delicate balance of mutually distrustful,
regionally based, tribes, having little or no
national consciousness. The recent census con-
troversy has intensified tribal antagonisms.
There is considerable social discontent; radical
and pro-Communist opposition to the conservative
rulers is growing but is not yet a major factor,
b. The principal interest of the US in
Nigeria is to see the country prosper within the
Free d orld as a leader and good example for
other African countries. This can be accomplished
if Nigeria maintains political stability and
demonstrates some success in economic develop-
ent? US aid ($225 million is committed for the
Six-Year Plan (1962-1968)) can help to some extent.
The US should encourage the formation of a
government of national unity after the 1964 elections
and,, with a view to possible changes an the political
scene, should cultivate new contacts among the
younger, more radical, political groups.
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2. The paper requires updating in a few places before
final approval, and we are submitting a few detailed comments
for consideration by the drafters of the final version; these
comments are not of major importance (copy attached). The
paper is generally acceptable to ONE, OCI4 ORR, and DDP,
and CIA concurrence is recommended.
ABBOT SMITH
Acting Senior Intelligence
support Officer
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2 April 1964
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR
SUBJECT: Nigeria National Policy Paper
1. With respect to the major substantive intelligence
judgments, we find the present draft generally satisfactory,
and we would recommend Agency concurrence in it.
2. We do not believe that a SNIE on Nigeria would
be useful at this time in connection with the Policy Paper.
NIE 60-64, on West Africa (scheduled for USIB consideration
on 2 April 1964), treats generally of Nigeria, and we believe
it is sufficient for the time being.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES:
ABBOT SMITH
Acting Chairman
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1 April 1964
CIA COMMENTS ON THE NIGERIA NATIONAL POLICY PAPER
We find this draft a marked improvement over the paper sub-
mitted last November and reviewed by us on 3 January 1964. Most
of our earlier comments have been embodied in the present draft,
and the paper has been considerably reduced in size. The overly
optimistic picture of Nigerian economic prospects has been toned
down considerably in this version, resulting in a more balanced
presentation. Our criticisms of the paper are not major ones,
and relate to matters of emphasis,. Mainly, we believe that the
paper continues to treat lightly the magnitude of the unemployment
problem and the endemic corruption which permeates most government
levels. Also, the 1963 census figures, released in late February,
1964, are likely to cause grr.ater economic and political repercussions
than are indicated in the paper.
A. We believe that the problem of increasing unemployment and
underemployment bodes ill for political stability and economic peace.
The paper states (page 5, second full paragraph) that social discontent
content could be kept within manageable proportions if the political
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leadership develops sufficient awareness of the dangers, and
adequately domonstrates its sincere concern for social welfare.
We believe that much more than awareness and concern are called for,
and that unless decisive measures are undertaken by the Nigerian
governments, a potentially dangerous situation will emerge
B. We note in connection with the labor force that the Policy
Paper's recommendaticns for the support of labor unions are some-
what unrealistic. On the one hand. it is suggested that the US
support a strong western-style labor movement whose efforts would
be primarily oriented towards seeking higher wages. On the other
hand, we are to urge restraint on organized labor in the matter of
higher wages. In any event the organized sector of Nigerian labor
is relatively small and we doubt that wage increases for the organized
sector would add substantially to the already existing inflationary
pressures.
C. The release of the new census figures alters markedly our
position on the growth prospects for the Nigerian economy within the
framework of the Six Year Plan ending in 1968. We are now concerned
that the very limited growth envisaged in this plan is likely to be
non-existent and that the stagnation evident throughout 1963 might
well characterize the economy for sonetime to cane. The unexpected
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addition of 14-13 million Nigerians indicated by the new census,
causes us to restate our earlier views of economic prospects in
even gloomy terms. Before the current census data became avail-
able we commented:
"Even if all the coonomic development plans were successfully
completed the annual per capita increase in private com-
sumption would be about 1% during the plan period, hardly
enough to make a significant impression on the public. We
concluded that even under the best of circumstances Nigerian
economic prospects are not especially bright, and that ful-
fillment of the development schemes are not likely to make
an appreciable contribution to political or social stability."
It is now apparent that the planned annual per capita increase
in private consu ptis,n will be less than the unimpressive 1% indicated
above.
D. We would note that the political organization of Nigeria -
a relatively loose Federal structure - has impeded and is likely to
continue to impede the development effort. The goals of the
Development Plan have been frustrated by numerous shortcomings,
including:
1) corruption on a massive scale at virtually all levels
of political and economic activity,
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2) poor coordinc:,t:t,on between federal and regional
govt r .m f -
3) lack of national ob4ectives in many ministries,
4) no properly coordinated government policy or private
inve ,tment,
5) the lack of statistics essential for economic planning.
Pages 1 and 2. Several references are made to US economic
aid, implying that economic development of Nigeria will greatly
enhance its political stability. The paper over-emphasizes the
role of economic events and treats the Six Year Plan as a panacea
for poltiical ills. Economic development alone will not solve the
problems of political instability in Nigeria, for these problems are
social, tribal, psychological, religious and political in nature,
as well as economic.
Page 4. First full paragraph. We believe that "unlikely" is
too strong a word to use in reference to the possibility of regional
secession. Most of the top leaders will work to retain federal
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unity, but tribal and regional antagonisms have become intensified
over the census issue, and the possibility of a 'break-up of the
Federation cannot be ruled out so summarily.
Page 21 , We do not understand the word "hope" in referring to
Nigerian. reaction to the assassination of President Kennedy.
Page 27. We suggest striking out the phrase "though slender",
in referring to the NPC majority in Parliament. The NPC has 57%
of the seats.
Page 29, Paragraph 2. The recent "working agreement" of the
AG and NCNC parties in the Western Region ought to be mentioned.
Pages 40-41. The census figures have not been taken into
account in this section. References to per capita income should
be updated.
Page 56, last paragraph. Diplomatic relations have also been
Pages 58-59. Reference might be made to the fact that a
preponderance of Nigerian officers, commissionr.d and NCO's, are
Ibos and Yorubas from the South, traditionally disliked by the
Fulani and Hausa northerners who constitute more than half of the
-5-
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S E C R E T
troops. In the event of a serious north-south confrontation,
or upon the withdrawal of British officers in a year or so, the
reliability of the Nigerian forces will be open to question.
Page 65. The discussion of Nigerian negotia ices with the
EEC could be clarified. Nigeria appears to be applying for
association membership.
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 Ap
1 CHECK C.17.1 1
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
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RETURN
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INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks :
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO S
FROM: NAME. ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
Ray S. Cline DDI 7E32 2/4/64
UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL X SECRET
FORM NO. ' Use previous editions (40)
Ap~FMje
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