CIA ASSESSMENT OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST THREAT AS PROJECTED IN THE ARMY'S NIKE-X DEPLOYMENT STUDY AND DIA'S SPECIAL INTELLIGENCE SUPPLEMENT, 'COMMUNIST CHINA, NUCLEAR THREAT'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000400050008-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: November 5, 1965
• Content Type: MF

SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R000400050008-7
AN 1POJU The Rat rable Robert a. McNamara
aseretary of Defense
surixcr
CIA Assessment of the Chinese Communist
Throat as Projected in the Army's Nike-
X h II nt Stu and DIA's Special
Intel d 3upplement "C4wwnntst
mina Nucl!*r Threat"
Attached for your inf ration is a CIA assessment
subject studies.
2. In general, we believe that both studies undo
to the economic and technological limitations teeing
China tbrough the next two decades and conclude that t
Chinese will not be capable of producing all the weapons
t projected. It in our view that the chino" initially
will direct sore of their effort and resources toward irov-
L their military position in Asia and low on developing
a -oriented strategic deterrent., Thus neither study
be used by the intelligence commintty an a point of reference
for measuring the future Chime* threat.
3, We agree with the two studies that by 1.97$ the
,i ll have no more than half a dozen I
interim, both papers state, the diesel
leer delivery capability against the United
of range limitations, we do not believe
missile submarine will represent the pr
eat: a. significant threat to the
continental 1. It is a potential throat to 'ail and
Alaska and, re importantly, to bases and allied nations
in the western Pacific.
Army and DIA review(s) completed.
25)K1
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Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400050008-7
4. The ike-I 2101 Bt Stud' is considerably so
extensive than t o DIA paper an , n recommending a deploy-
of the like-4 system against the projected threat,
nee several subjects not covered by DII. One of theme
to a like-X deployment. On this setae,
eyes rather than to reassure friendly Asians.
we believe the std overstates the favorable aspects by a
rather considerable margin. It suggests among other things,
that deployment of like-Y would tend to curb nuclear pro-
liferation and reassure US allies in Asia. It is our feeling
that ihe-I deployment would probably have little effect on
the desix of other nations to join the nuclear club and
that deployment of an "anti -Chinese" defensive system in
the US would tend to upgradee the Chinese threat in Asian
5. Another subject covered by the like-E Study
before its deployment in the field. yor some systems---sew
to three years lead-time after detection of a Chinese w
not by DIdl is intelligence lead-time. The study estimates
that through the next ten years the would have only two
submarine classes, for instance--this time tram
be about right. however, we believe we would have
than four years lead-tine on a China
W. F. RAWAN
X1
Attachment
1 - Exec Chrono w/o att.
O/DDI: sfc (4 November 1965)
Distribution;
original and 1 - Addressee w/att.
1 - Signer w/att.
1/i - Executive Registry w/o att.
1 _ O/DDI Chrono w/o att.
251
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 Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400050008-7
MEMORANDUM FOR: Colonel .. hite
This is the letter for DCI signature referred to
at the Morning Meeting today. I sent the original
and the attached study directly on into the DCI's
office. As you know, Applewhite is fully alerted
to handle this with the Secretary.
STAT
H. Knoche
5 November 65
(DATE)
10-101
O.
FORM N
AUG 54 lol WHICH REPLACES FORM M USED.
Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000400050008-7