LETTER TO THE HONORABLE ROBERT S. MCNAMARA FROM FROM RICHARD HELMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000400050005-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: December 23, 1965
• Content Type: LETTER

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Nop,
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
23 DEC 1965
v'-
The Honorable Robert S. McNamara
Secretary of Defense
Washington, D. C.
Dear Mr. Secretary:
Attached is Volume III of the Joint Analysis Group's report,
Alternative Projections of Soviet Military Forces (1965-1975).
This completes the present report, Volumes I and II of which
were issued in May 1965.
As you will recall, Volumes I and II postulated four alter-
native Soviet forces, projected over the next ten years. Volume
III considers the cost and manpower implications of these forces.
General Carroll and I trust that it will add to the over-all
usefulness of the report.
Sincerely,
Richard Helms
Acting Director
JAG:Ohof:22 Dec 65
Retyped in O/DDCI/
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Distribution:
Or &1- Adse
I^-'++ -ER
1- JAG Chrono
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a14 Volumes I - 11 postulated four
is, projected "mar the nwtt teen
pears. Valum III co es1 srs the cost =mvw*z ss isa
t .ons at tbase fps . I trust that it vLU add to the over -
a us" .nest of report.
xi
JAG :hot
Distribution:
Orig. & 1 - addr%sae
1 - IR
1 - JAG
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28 October 3965
or of Central Intell igsvice
Director for Intelli n
Procedure for Issuing VOlumve III of JAG 8t
onwoments thereof. Yon III, sevnprising abeat 325 pees
manpower associated with. esch of the four altornative
lure III of the 196 Joint Analysis Gr steu6y, proJoctin
ee rsnelum aixt] now, fear your *p roval, a +osed procedure
aM tables, aM a iwpwft$ly Annex breaking
pi, setpon systems, was Vmwjmz*d with the hell of
se h and Reports aA has been revive" in that Office
the high-side Bast, a not an econ ie r pmt teal
of the IM" of l stio I Rstisva# s. The
of special into"" is the net ft any unexpected findI
to etsvelerp cued world Sinost a 'tsilL1y be sdo sd
9. X no no used to solicit o ants on the draft from the intelli.-
g nc. et. ty at lar e, as was dose with the first two velsnes, ain is
Vobme I ` is an assentt lly technical analysis of the eco do ia?pilo&-
tions of the forces pmjwt*d in Yolwos I and Ii, rather than something
up a whole new teed set of 3 ants. Also, it hss been *
since Volumes I and II were tuned in MW a tte vauld hope to
?eehed for vannr signature, is a draft letter of transmission
similarly vard*4 =signed- Distribution lie on feint Jf e
secretary - or veS+enae. Alternatively, 'Enlarge III eadld be circulated
s also attached for reforence.
fir. A cagy of your original letter of transmissiarn to
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s. Is this paecs4uzs eatisfsetory to Sig
b. Yft Irish to sIM Vole* III or be brlof* L on it before
it is ciroo3stsd?
G*noro1 $ r U.
st for approval of this >r9***w* to
/S/
STA
Chsixuan
CIA/DIA Joint Ms1ysis Arsop
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The Honorable Robert S. McNamara
Secretary of Defense
Washington, D. C.
Dear Mr. Secretary:
Attached is the second report of the CIA/DIA Joint Analysis
Group. In it you will find four alternative Soviet forces, projected over
the next ten years. The projections are based on the current estimate
of Soviet Military doctrine and on three possible divergent lines of
development.
The alternatives and their component weapon systems are
designed to present a feasible range of threat for use as assumptions
in the long-term planning studies conducted in your office and by the
military services. They are not to be construed as being the intelligence
community's estimate of Soviet Military development during the period.
This study has been reviewed by the other members of the
USIB and the Board of National Estimates, and while they do not
necessarily agree in detail to all of its projections, they do believe it
to be useful. General Carroll and I concur in suggesting that it be used
as a basis for threat models included in Department of Defense long-
term planning studies.
Sincerely,
William F. Raborn, Jr.
Vice Admiral, USN (Ret.)
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