SCHEMA FOR ANALYSIS OF MBFR MONITORING CAPABILITIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01500R000100030011-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 30, 1998
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: April 18, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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ATTACHMENT (2)
SCHEMA FOR ANALYSIS OF MBFR MONITORING CAPABILITIES
1. Provide the National Security Council (NSC) and the U.S-
MRFR Negotiating Team with a current, realistic, and insofar
as possible, quantified appreciation of the present performance
and future capabilities of U.S. and allied collection resources
to monitor Warsaw Pact air and groind forces in the NATO Guide-
lines and peripheral areas (Hungary plus the Western Military
District of the USSR) in the negot:Latlon, reduction, and post
MBFR reduction phases.
20 SCOPE: Emphasis will he placed on evaluating U.S. and
allied capability to collect information in support of a set
of basic MBFR monitoring requirements in the NATO Guidelines
area. Maximum advantage will be taken of analyses previously
conducted by CIA, DIA, State, ACDA, NSA, and interagency study
groups. The analysis will be undertaken as :..~bed series of
stud as, each revolving around a related aspect of the MBFR
monitoring capabilities problem. The general topics to be
dressed are as follows:
a. An appreciation of current U.S. incell .gene. collection
resource performance against basic MBFR monitoring requirements.
b. Options to improve current MBFR collection operations
within existing resources constraints.
c. An estimate of the impact of new collection resources
on future MBFR monitoring capabilities.
d. The contribution to MBFR monitoring that would be made
by negotiated collateral constraints and inspection measures,
Special attention will be given in all phases of the study
program to problems of deception and the limitations of col-
lection resources in terms of thcir performance: and capabilities-
3. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is fourfold:
a. To establish a collection baseline founded insofar as
possible on quantifiable empirical data which will assist in
defining current U.S. intelligence collection rescurce per-
formance against a set of basic MBFR related monitcring require-
ments. (See paragraph 4. for a discussion of Basic Requirements),
,r N
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The basic requirements relate to but do not necessarily en-
compass all of the immediate and pressing intelligence needs
associated with the negotiation, reduction, and post re-
duction phases., These requirements do, however, represent
those very fundamental needs that must as a minimum be serviced
in order to verify Warsaw Pact compliance with the provision of
any resulting agreement. The purpose of the first study is to
answer the question:
"In what manner and with what degree of success are
U.S. and allied collection resources currently per-
forming against basic MBFK monitoring requirements
on Soviet and indigenous air and ground force units?
b. To identify and define a collection strategy or sets
of strategies which will optimize current collection resources
against the NSBFR related basic requirements and measure the
expected intelligence gain over current collection operations.
The baseline developed in chapter one will be the point of
departure for this analysis and the necessary estimates.
"How much better could existing U.S. and allied
collection resources perform in support of MFR
,monitoring if the present collection strategy were
changed and focused with a much higher priority
against the basic MBFR air and ground force re-
quire:uents?"
c. To identify additional collection resources which in
the future would significantly improve current r:onitoring
capability and insofar as possible define their impact in
.relation to current collection effectiveness. Future im-
provements will be examined within the following collection
disci.p-line context:
(1)
imagery
(2)
SIGINT
(3)
Special
Technical Sensors
(4)
Human Sources
The purpose.of this chapter is to answer the question:
"What is the potential impact of future collection systems
on the MBFR related air and ground force monitoring problem?"
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d. To identify and insofar as possible define the
contribution to MBFR monitoring that would be made by the
collateral constraints now being proposed to accompany air
and ground force reductions as well as the negotiated
inspection measures now being considered by the U.S. and
NATO. In addition, define the contribution to MBFR mon-
itoring that would result by various mixes of collateral
constraints and negotiated inspection measures. Collateral
constraints to be considered include the following:
(1) Limits on introduction of forces into NGA.
(2) Limits on exercises in the NGA.
(3) Advance notification of troop movements and
reserve call-up in NGA area.
Negotiated inspection measures include:
(1) Mobile inspection teams.
(2) Stationed observers.
(3) Exchange of observers during maneuvers.
(4) Open skies.
(5) On site observation of redactions.
The question to be answered is:
"What will be the impact of potential MBFR collateral
constraints and inspection measures on the ability of
the U.S. to monitor compliance with an MBFR agreement?"
4, BASIC REQUIREMENTS: By way of definition, basic MBFR
monitoring requirements are those requirements associated
with the c.ontinuing collection and evaluation of information
and the production of intelligence on Warsaw Pact forces and
areas affected by agreed or proposed mutual and balanced
force reductions (MBFR). Basic MBFR monitoring requirements
are those which are fundamental to the negotiation, reduction
and post reduction phases in terms of the intelligence support
recuired of the DCI and the national intelligence community to
support the President and other national policymaking elements.
These requirements are closely allied to classic strategic
warning and ground force order of battle information needs which
if satisfied would in large part support MBFR monitoring needs.
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For the purpose of this series of studies the following are
considered to be the basic MBFR requirements as they relate
to monitoring stationed and indigenous forces within the NATO
Guidelines Area:
a. To determine the type, number, echelon, and location
of ground and air force units in the Warsaw Pact NATO Cuide--
lines Area.
b. To determine the strength (manning) and major equipments
(amount and type) associated with air and ground force units in
this area.
c. During the negotiation, reduction, and. post reduction
phases, determine the strength, disposition, and movement of
air and ground force units within, into, and out of the NATO
Guideline Area.
There are numerous other questions with related intelligence
requirements of major importance to decision makers and negotiators
associated with the MBFR verification problem, however, the three
categories of requirements stated above are believed to be the
most fundamental.
5. STUDY APPROACH: The study series will be structured as a
phased series of reports; each part focused on a related aspect
of the MBFR monitoring capabilities problem.
Part I - "Current U.S. Collection Resource Performance
Against Basic i?13FRMon for n Requirements ~r kill be a country
by country analysis building to a regional analysis of current
collection operations against the NGA plus Hungary and the
Western Military Districts of the USSR. It will consist of
an inventory of collection resources and statistical and map
displays of the major collection discipline's performance
against basic MBFR requirements over a one year period.
Part II - "Options to Improve Current Collection Performance
Against Basic MBFR Requirements" will address the collection
strategies defined in Part I and develop options to improve
quality, quantity, and timeliness of information over the cur-
rent performance using presently available resources. Efforts
will be made to illustrate and quantify the gain to be achieved
by comparison with statistical data from Part I. Performance
trade-offs will be identified as appropriate for each option.
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Part III - "Impact of Future Collection Resources on
I1IiFR Monitoring" will identify future collection capabilities
that will or could become operational during the 70's and
estimate their impact on the current coile~ction 'capabi.iity.
Simulation will be used where practicable and data presented
in statistical and graphic form as appropriate.
Part IV - "Intelligence Collection Value of Collateral
Constraints and Inspection Measures" will discuss and illustrate
the expected gain to be' achieved by these negotiated compliance
assurances.
What follows is an outline of each of the study series parts
and a.se't of definitions to be used at the study outset:
PART I
OUTLINE
TITLE: CURRENT U.S. COLLECTION RESOURCE PERFORMANCE AGAINST
BASIC MBF1 MONITORING REQUIREMENTS
A~ Introduction
1'. Thr Monitoring & Verification Problem
2 Purpose & Scope
3. Background
4. Definition of Terms
B~ Methodology
1. Requirements
2. Collection Resources
3. Description & Source(s) of Data
4. Statistical Techniques
C~ Current U.S. Collection Monitori Performance
Country Analysis
a. SIGINT
b. Imagery
c. HU"IINT
d, Multi-Source
e., Technical Senors (As Required)
f. All Sources Combined
2. Regional Analysis of Current Collection Strategy
D. Summary & Conclusions
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FART II
TITLE: OPTIONS TO IMPROVE CURRENT COLLECTION PERFORMANCE
AGAINST BASIC MBFR REQUTRLE,TS
Introduction
1. Purpose & Scope
2. Review of Current Monitoring Strategies,
3. Improvement Assumptions & Definitions ,
B.: Identification of Options
1. 'Identification of Monitoring Options by Collection
Discipline
a. SIGINT Resources
b. Imagery Resources
c. NUMINT Resources
d. Special Sensor Resources (As Required)
2. Identification of Collection Mix Options
C. Comparison of~ ptions
D. Summary & Conclusion s
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PART - _II.I
OUTLINE
TITLE: I1'ACT OF FUTURE COLLECTION RESOURCES ON MBFR MONITORING
A. Introduction
1. Purpose & Scope
2. Assumptions & Definitions
B. Summate of Current Collection Systems
1. SKINT
2. Imagery
3. IU?IINT
4. Tpecial Sensor (As Required)
C.. Identification & Description of Future Collection Systems;
1)> Simt:late & Estimate Impact of Future Collection Systems
onuYon.torinR Performance
Sumn:-.r & Conclusions
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PART IV
OUTLINE
TITLE: INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION VALUE OF COLLATERAL
CONSTRAINTS AND INSPECTION MEASURES
1. Purpose and Scope
2. Assumptions and Definitions
B. Identification of Collateral Constraints
and Ne otiated Insnection Measures
C. Estimate of the Effect of' Agreed Constraints
and Ins ection Measures on Monitoring Capabilit
D. Summary an'd Conclusions
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6. DEFINITIONS: In order to facilitate communications among
those involved in this study-series and insure understanding
of the product by its ultimate. consumers, rather rigorous
definition of terms used in discussing verification related
problems will be required. As a point of departure the fol-
lowing definitions which are contained in CIA/OSR study SR
SP 72-4, TCS 1335/72, dated November 1972, are recommended.
As the study progresses these definitions will be amended as
appropriate and new terms will probably he added:
Monitoring: The continuing collection and evaluation
of information - the production or intelligence - on Warsaw Pact
forces and areas affected by an agreed force reduction.
Verification: The determination at policy level that
agreed force reductions have or have not taken place, and
that agreed force lvels and restrictions in a designated
area are or are not being respected.
. Order of Battle: The sum of the elements of information
required jror ttie evaluation of a military force. Includes -
but is not limited to - location, organization, manning and
equipment levels, disposition, and activity of military units.
Verification Intelligence: That intelligence used to
establish violation of or compliance with an agreement. The
term .is, used to differentiate, both in product and in production,
between the intelligence necessary for a verification estimate
and the intelligence produced for other purposes. In many,
perhaps most, instances these will be similar.
Warning Intelligence: That intelligence, often called
indications intelligence; which deals with indications of
whether-an attack or other hostile: action against the U.S. or
its forces or its allies is intended.
Violation: The failure to remove from or to disband
forces in the area of reduction, as prescribed by.an agreement,
or the. introduction or activation of forces in the area of
reduction, prohibited by an agreement.
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