SOME GUESSES ABOUT THE NEXT KREMLIN CONSPIRACY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01495R001100030010-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: March 1, 1969
• Content Type: MAGAZINE

12 Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP80B0149S 495W01 1000300
The Easy Chair by John Fischer
SOME GUESSES ABOUT
THE NEXT KREMLIN CONSPIRACY
If you are a gambling man, you. might
want to bet a few dollars that Russia
will have a major change in government
before the year is out. At reasonable odds
-say four-to-one, which is the least you
ought to get on any guess about the So-
viet Union-that could be an interesting
speculation.
Such is the advice I've been getting
lately from people who make their living
by watching the Soviet leaders and try-
ing to figure out what they might do
next. Some of my best friends are Krem-
linologists, professing their arcane sci-
ence for the government or universities
or, in a few cases, in private practice.
Since I have been an amateur Kremlin-
watcher myself from time to time, and
have on occasion been able to pick up
scraps of information for them, in re-
turn they sometimes tell me what they
are thinking. They seldom agree; but
recently most of them have been hinting
--with the well-hedged caution. which is
also characteristic of race-track touts
and stock-market analysts-that some
time in the fairly near future they ex-
pect a shift in the top levels of the Rus-
sian oligarchy.
They also are uncommonly close to
agreement about the reasons why such
an upheaval seems likely. The current
ruling clique has made too many blun-
ders; and throughout Russian history
whenever a regime piles up an intoler-
able number of mistakes, it eventually
topples. The recent blunders are not the
result of stupidity or incompetence. On
the contrary, Leonid Brezhnev and
Alexei Kosygin, the co-bosses of the
Kremlin, are by all accounts intelligent
and experienced politicians. Their mis-
takes probably were unavoidable, again
for historic reasons. Russian govern-
ments, whether Czarist or Communist,
the outside world. And they always have
had even more difficulty in adjusting to
the currents of change, both inside their
own country and beyond their borders.
As Milovan Djilas, the former Yugoslav
Communist leader, recently pointed out,
"a revolution cannot change a nation, its
tendencies and qualities and traits."
Consequently, Djilas suggested, the pres-
ent regime can best be understood as a
"continuation of the Czarist bureau-
cracy," with all its built-in rigidity and
inertia.
Moreover, the Communist society has
no provision for an orderly, periodical
change in command; and under its one-
party system there is no such thing as a
legitimate alternative government. So
any change has to be accomplished by
conspiracy and intrigue, often accom-
panied by violence. Only a few hours
before his overthrow in 1964, Nikita
Khrushchev remarked to a French diplo-
mat that "a political leader should never
leave power of his own free will." At that
very moment his friends and colleagues
in the Presidium (earlier known. as the
Politburo) were conspiring to remove
him against his will. He went, literally
screaming and cursing, but with a whole
skin.
Khrushchev's own climb to power a
decade earlier was not so bloodless. He
told the story, while he still was at the
top of the heap, to a Western diplomat
with whom he had become particularly
well acquainted. One evening after both
of them had put away a good deal of
vodka, the diplomat said, "You know,
one thing I never understood was how
you managed to get rid of Lavrenti
clay without his bodyguard. I shot him."
Because he is a discreet and honorable
man, the diplomat never repeated this
story until long after Khrushchev's
forced retirement, and so far as I know
it has not been previously published. But
the fact that he told it at all is an indica-
tion of Khrushchev's impulsiveness and
overweening self-confidence.
These characteristics were evident
enough when I first met Khrushchev
just after the end of World War II. He
was then boss of the Ukraine and a fairly
junior member of the Politburo, the apex
committee of the Communist hierarchy.
I was a member of a mission overseeing
the distribution of United Nations relief
supplies in the Ukraine. In his dealings
with the mission, Khrushchev showed
some engaging traits : an apparent open-
ness and candor, at least as such things
are measured in Russia; a sense of
humor; a willingness to experiment; an
impatient eagerness to get things done.
At the same time he was prone to bully-
ing his subordinates, and anyone else
when he thought he could get away with
it. (The Napoleonic syndrome, common
among short men, especially when they
come from humble beginnings.) He
loved to embark on bold new projects,
and then lost interest in them before they
got well under way. And he seemed to
me appallingly reckless. For example, he
arranged a formal banquet-grotesquely
formal, with candlelight, three wines, in-
numerable carafes of vodka and brandy,
Beria. With his absolute control of the Mr. Fischer is the author of "Why
secret police, I should have thought he They Behave Like Russians" and other
" books, and was editor in chief of this
would be invulnerable."
should have been," Khrushchev serving ngne this for quarter as ter as Regents Ryearsegents years. Pro fess-
always have had trouble in estimating replied, "but he made one silly mistake. sor at the Santa Cruz campus of the
what effect theirA ~SV ~r` ~I dS~ ~~ / 10. e r BBO9'4 RObi"fo ad10 for?aia.
Harper's Magazine, March 1969
 004.1 dllw,
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theater and opera, incidentally giving
salaries to many performers. It can put
out standard cheap editions of classical
American writing. It can revive the use-
ful "applied" art of the WPA, with mod-
est stipends and no questions asked. It
can radically decentralize the unas-
signed TV channels and give millions a
chance to speak and perform; and it can
operate one public channel of high stand-
ard information and entertainment, like
the BBC First Program. . . . And not
least, in the sciences, instead of dispens-
ing the present gigantic budget entirely
through great institutes, universities,
and corporations, government could give
hundreds of thousands of small grants
to inventors and scientists without in-
stitutional connection, to increase the
scientific pool; we might occasionally
turn up a Faraday....
PAUL GOODMAN
Oceanic Institute
Waimanalo, Hawaii
Fourth-party Rumblings
In "The Man Who Ran Against Lyn-
don Johnson" [December], David Hal-
berstam has recorded more background
on what has inelegantly been dubbed the
"Dump Johnson" movement that any
other author to date. At one point, how-
ever, Mr. Halberstam's account is fac-
tually incorrect.
His decription of the meeting of the
Coalition for an Open Convention on
August 25, 1968, attributes "fourth-par-
ty rumblings" to Marcus Raskin and me.
The statement is half-right. Mr. Raskin
was already involved in organizing a
fourth party. At the meeting in ques-
tion, I stated that the difficulties already
encountered by Mr. Raskin's signature-
gatherers proved once more the futility
of minority-party politics in the United
States.
It would have been quite inconsistent
of me to make "fourth-party rumblings."
I worked informally with Al Lowenstein
and Curtis Gans since the summer of
1967 in the "Dump Johnson" movement,
and worked within SANE for its organ-
izational support of such a movement,
which was forthcoming in October 1967.
In January, 1968, SANE became the
first national organization to support
Eugene McCarthy. By August 25, the
movement had gone further than I had
dreamed possible a year earlier and we
were about to organize the New Demo-
cratic Coalition. If Mr. Halberstam's in-
formants detected "a defeated quality"
to the August 25 meetings, that feeling
did not encompass all of the partici-
pants. SANFORD GOTTLYEB
Executive Director, SANE
Wash '0m%%1l. FEdr
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This Steinway 'was started June 15, 1968.
This Steinway will be finished June 20,1969.
A year may sound like a long time to work on one grand piano,
but Steinway has proven that's how long it takes to make a fine
musical instrument.
Of course, we could save a lot of time if we didn't make the
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Or if we didn't kiln dry the wood before and after gluing. Or
didn't hand condition the felt in every hammer for truest tone.
Or go through the months of precision voicing and tuning.
The reason just about every great pianist you can think of
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and a footman in eighteenth-century cos-
tume behind each chair-for the U. N.
mission and the senior members of his
own staff. Before the end of the dinner
he was so drunk that he launched im-
promptu into an offensively belligerent
speech, became incoherent, and finally
had to be helped out of the room, glassy-
eyed, by two of his military aides.
At the time it seemed improbable to
me that such an unstable character
would ever become the supreme ruler of
the Soviet empire. Obviously I was
wrong-as I have been in a good many
other calculations about the Russians.
But his instability and impulsiveness did
lead eventually to his overthrow.
How his downfall was accomplished is
a breath-catching story, as full of sus-
pense and Byzantine intrigue as any es-
pionage novel. All of its details probably
will never be known, barring some cata-
clysm which opens up the secret archives
of the Kremlin. But the fullest account
yet available has recently been published
under the title The Fall of Khrushchev
(Funk & Wagnalls, $4.95) by William
Hyland and Richard W. Shryock. It de-
serves more attention than it has re-
ceived so far, because of what it tells
about the inner workings of Soviet poli-
tics-and because it suggests, obliquely,
how the next change of regime may
come about, and why.
The book probably is a thinly-dis-
guised intelligence document. Its authors
are identified only as "longtime students
of Soviet affairs" who are "currently
employed by the federal government."
That smacks of the CIA or one of its
companion agencies; if the authors were,
say, State Department men, one would
expect more explicit information about
their rank and credentials. Internal evi-
dence indicates that they are veteran
Kremlinologists, thoroughly familiar
with material such as obscure Russian
publications and the tapes of Soviet
broadcasts, which would not be easily
available to anyone outside the intelli-
gence establishment. And they write in
the standard jargon of the intelligence
appreciation, a style unmistakable to
anyone who has read or worked on such
reports. If this suspicion is correct, it
does not reflect on the value of their
work. A number of books-the Penkov-
skiy memoirs in this country, for exam-
ple, and the Philby story in Russia-
have been published with the known
encouragement of the respective national
intelligence agencies. They are none the
less illuminating for all that.
Stalin's death in 1953 was followed by
two years of infighting and secret ma-
neuver within the Soviet power struc-
SMOM19003PA'IAT96 Khrushchev had
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THE EASY CHAIR
finally eliminated his chief rivals-
Beria, Malenkov, Molotov, Bulganin-
did he feel secure enough to embark on a
program of his own. It was an ambitious
one. He knew that many changes were
overdue after the long, frozen night of
Stalinist terror, and some of the things
he sought were genuinely in the inter-
ests of the Russian people. More food,
more housing, more consumer goods.
Less fear of police terrorism. More flexi-
bility and efficiency in the clumsy, creak-
ing administrative machinery. More
freedom-just a little more-for Soviet
artists and writers.
But every one of these changes was
profoundly disturbing to some en-
trenched interest in the country's hier-
archy. To produce more food and con-
sumer goods, he had to take money
away from the armed forces and heavy
industry-the Soviet version of the mili-
tary-industrial complex ; the resulting
struggle ended in apparent victory only
after he fired Marshal Georgi Zhukov,
the most famous hero of World War If.
Khrushchev's repeated shake-ups of the
Party organization and the secret police
jarred whole armies of bureaucrats out
of their soft jobs and comfortable ways
of doing things. His denunciation of
Stalinism offended his colleagues in the
Presidium, because all of them (includ-
ing of course Comrade K. himself) had
been implicated in Stalin's crimes. They
felt even more threatened by his tenta-
tive experiments in freeing some parts
of the economy and the intellectual com-
munity from rigid centralized control.
Such heresy was not only ideologically
scandalous. It also imperiled the whole
structure which gave the Communist
elite their power and privileges. They
felt much as the conservatives of the
Vatican Curia did after Pope John
opened the gates of change in the Catho-
lic Church. For if Authority permits a
little freedom of thought, of criticism,
and of action, where and how can it be
checked before it sweeps away Authority
itself?
To offset the opposition to his domes-
tic innovations, Khrushchev needed some
spectacular triumphs abroad-and no
doubt he also craved them for the sake
of his own inflamed ego, after his dec-
ades of servility under Stalin. The pros-
pects looked good. He assumed-and
stated publicly-that Russia's launching
of the first Sputnik and intercontinental
missiles was shifting the balance of mili-
tary power in his favor. The Western
alliance was in considerable disarray.
Colonial empires in Africa and Asia
were breaking up, leaving weak suc-
cessor governments that seemed to offer
tempting opportunities for Communist
intervention. So in 1958 he launched a
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I THE EASY CHAIR
Coming in
Harper's
John Corry's
CUBA NOW
Harper's Contributing Editor
has just returned from a month's
visit to Castro's Cuba, ten
years after the Revolution
captured Havana. Here, in a
brilliant, firsthand, reportorial
account, is the story of what
is happening in that country and
an appraisal of what this
small Caribbean nation's experiment
in Marxist-authoritarian adventures
means to itself and its people,
to the U.S., and to the world .. .
'VF
and stories, articles, essays,
and poems by
FRANK O'CONNOR
ROBERT LOWELL
DAVID HALBERSTAM
JAMES Q. WILSON
JOHN W. ALDRIDGE
NAT HENTOFF
OSCAR LEWIS
JOHN CIARDI
ROGER WILKINS
KTNGST.EY AMIS
Approved
series of power plays against the West.
By threats, ultimatums, and harass-
ment of the air corridors, he tried to
force the NATO allies out of Berlin. He
demanded a final peace settlement in
Central Europe on his own terms. He
grabbed for power bases in the Middle
East and the Congo. But each of these
offensives failed-all for the same fun-
damental reason: the West called his
bluff. Presidents Eisenhower and Ken-
nedy both refused to yield to Khrush-
chev's threats, and he was not prepared
to back them up with armed force.
By 1961 other things were going
wrong for him too. Just as the orthodox
old-timers had predicted, Khrushchev's
moves toward liberalization had set loose
forces that were hard to control; in Hun-
gary they seemed to jeopardize the very
structure of the Soviet empire, and had
to be suppressed by Russian troops. His
grandiose schemes for plowing up the
Virgin Lands and for planting American
corn in the Ukraine were embarrassing
failures. For a brief period he tried an
impulsive reversal of foreign policy, call-
ing for "peaceful coexistence" with the
West; the most notable result was the
split with China, since Chairman Mao
could not tolerate such craven truckling
to the enemy.
Realizing that his critics both in the
military and the Party bureaucracy
were growing increasingly restive,
Khrushchev decided on the biggest gam-
ble yet in hopes of restoring his droop-
ing prestige and authority. This time
his miscalculation was double: he was
unable to set up a missile base in Cuba
before the United States could find out
about it; and when it was discovered,
the Americans did not acquiesce. Once
again he was forced to back down, this
time in the most humiliating public con-
frontation of all.
That did it. His colleagues in the top
agencies of the regime were alarmed by
the risks he had been taking, and dis-
gusted by their failure. They also were
acutely unhappy over a new set of pro-
posals that Khrushchev was advancing
-for drastic economic and administra-
tive reforms, for a showdown with
China, for opening negotiations with
West Germany. It probably was the
evening of October 11, 1964 (according
to Hyland and Shryock), that two of his
associates in the Presidium, Brezhnev
and Suslov, decided that The Boss would
have to go.
The way in which they recruited other
Presidium members into the conspiracy,
and went about the delicate business of
enlisting military and secret police sup-
port is reconstructed by the authors in I I
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 Approved Forel~ase 2006/01/17 CIA-RDP80B014001100030010-9
THE EASY CHAIR
rebels, Khrushchev was vacationing at
the time at his villa in Sochi; if he had
been in Moscow, he might well have
found out what was happening in time
to squelch it. Even in his absence, the
conspirators felt they had to move fast,
and by Monday, October 12, they had
gathered enough strength to call an
emergency meeting of the Presidium to
vote their absent leader out of his job.
The next day Khrushchev cut short
his vacation and flew back to Moscow,
probably because one of his few remain-
ing loyal henchmen on the Presidium
(Mikoyan?) had tipped him off. Ile was
met at the airport by the chief of the
secret police and escorted at once to a
Kremlin conference room where the Pre-
sidium was again in session. At the head
of the table sat Brezhnev, in Khrush-
chev's accustomed place. He broke the
news, brushed aside Khrushchev's bel-
ligerent protests, and told him to appear
the following morning before the full
Central Committee of the Communist
party, which would formally ratify his
dismissal.
At that final meeting , Suslov pre-
sented a twenty-nine-point indictment of
Khrushchev's blunders. The accused man
was permitted a rebuttal, which has
been described as rambling, aggressive,
and profane-and the Committee then
voted to remove him from all his Party
positions. But the vote was not unani-
mous; and when the decision was an-
nounced to the public a couple of days
later, it was framed in face-saving
terms. Khrushchev had asked to be re-
lieved of his duties, the communique
said, because of "advanced age and poor
health."
Something very similar may happen
one of these days to one or both of his
successors. Brezhnev and Kosygin are
far more cautious, and their style of
command apparently is less offensive to
their somewhat less-than-equal col-
leagues in the Party hierarchy. But so
far they have been no more successful
than Khrushchev in solving the gritty,
inescapable problems of the Soviet
realm.
They have clamped down on the lib-
erals and intellectuals both at home and
in their satellite states. The result has
been a wave of revulsion throughout the
world, even among lifelong Communists
in many countries. Moreover, repression
has not stopped the muttering-in
Czechoslovakia, where the Russian oc-
cupation promises to be a prolonged
embarrassment, nor in Poland and Ro-
mania, nor even among their own disil-
lusioned young people.
Their Arab clients lost the Six Day
War with Israel, in spite of Russia's
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Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP80BOl 495RO01 100030010-9
 ASk
95R001100030010-9
Dry Sack on-the-rocks is a great drink
before lunch or dinner. Dry Sack has the
body and superb nutty flavor to stand
up to ice cubes. No wonder Dry Sack
on-the-rocks, the man's sherry,
is so popular.
lavish contributions of planes and tanks;
and now they seem to be sliding toward
another, and more dangerous, confronta-
tion in defiance of Soviet cautions. The
Chinese not only are as hostile as ever;
they also are making alarming (to the.
Kremlin) noises about a rapprochement
with the United States.
To get their faltering economy in
order, Brezhnev and Kosygin urgently
need to slow down the arms race and
divert the money saved into domestic
uses. But an understanding with Amer-
ica and Western Europe has proved im-
possible, so long as Soviet troops are
poised in Czechoslovakia and the shoot-
ing continues in Vietnam and the Middle
East.
Their most pressing question of all is:
How do you run a modern, complex,
high-technology society under a system
of centralized, rigid controls? Brezhnev
and Kosygin have found no answer-be-
cause, as even their own people are be-
ginning to suspect, there is none. Their
industrial managers, and scientists, and
local administrators keep saying, with
increasingly open insistence, that such a
system just won't work. It could per-
form, after a fashion, during the war and
the early period of industrialization,
when the Soviet Union had only a few
simple goals. Today, however, the de-
mands of its society are more numerous
and sophisticated-ranging from space
exploration to contemporary women's
fashions, salable exports, a new auto-
mobile industry, an efficient production
of not-quite-so-shoddy consumer goods.
Such goals evidently cannot be reached
without some dispersal of decision-
making and some degree of freedom-in
consumer choice, in pricing, in mana-
gerial discretion, in scientific inquiry,
and in the flow of scarce resources. In
sum, an approach to something like a
pluralistic society.
That, of course, is the one thing that
Brezhnev and Kosygin and their fellow
conservatives in the Communist appa-
ratus cannot tolerate, since it would
immediately jeopardize their own au-
thority. They seemed doomed, there-
fore, to increasing conflict with Russia's
New Class, as Djilas has called it: the
managers and technologists whose role
grows steadily more important in every
modern industrial state. The consequent
tensions and pressures are likely to ac-
cumulate quietly below the surface, until
something has to give, like an earth slip-
page along a fault line. Then one or two
of the younger members of the hierarchy
may again begin to talk guardedly about
the necessity of a change in command,
and the conspiratorial tactics which
might bring it about ...
All of the people who have talked to
495R001100030010-9
 -24 Approved Fo
She
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Little Mie-Wen in Formosa
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b
THE EASY CHAIR
me about the possibility of such a palace
rebellion are pretty vague about the man,
or men, who might next climb to power.
Of the eleven present members of the
Presidium, Mikhail Suslov almost cer-
tainly can be ruled out. For decades he
has been the court theologian, the guard-
ian of the Party's ideological. purity. As
such, he has had considerable influence,
but no real power base in the military,
the police, the industrial structure, or
the Party machine. (That is why he was
not chosen, despite his early role in the
anti-Khrushchev cabal, to share power
with Brezhnev, who had a strong base
in the Party apparatus; instead the sec-
ond place went to Kosygin, an engineer
with a large following among industrial
management.) Besides, Suslov is too old,
too ill, and too closely associated with
the present regime to make a likely heir
apparent.
Several Kremlinologists are speculat-
ing about the chances of two other Pre-
sidium members, Nikolai Podgorny and
Peter Shelest. Both are Ukrainians and
former proteges of Khrushchev; Pod-
gorny, indeed, may have been the last
to desert his old boss in the crucial Oc-
tober 14 meeting of the conspirators.
Consequently if Party sentiment begins
to turn again toward a more flexible and
experimental policy, of the kind Khrush-
chev attempted so ineptly, one of them
might profit from it.
Probably an even better bet is Alex-
ander Shelepin, the bumptious young
man of the Kremlin, at least in compari-
son with the rest of the Soviet geron-
tocracy. Only fifty years old, he is con-
Since 1938, thousands of American
y
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I cannot sponsor a child but want to
sidered a spokesman for the New Class.
And since he has been a trade-union
leader, chief of the secret police, and
organizer of the Young Communist
League, he has excellent connections
with several main elements in the power
structure.
Other rising young men, such as
Dmitri S. Polansky, sometimes are men-
tioned as possibilities. But at bottom, all
this is sheer speculation. After all, even
Khrushchev did not know, until the last
moment, which of his friends had turned
against him. How then could anybody
outside the Kremlin hope to guess what
shape the next conspiracy will take?
Only three things can be said with
some assurance: (1) Such a conspiracy
is bound to take form sooner or later,
because Russia has no other way of
changing administrations. (2) The rec-
ord of the present regime hardly seems
good enough to promise it a long life.
(3) Whoever does succeed to the top
command will face much the same array
of problems and policy dilemmas which
Khrushchev and Brezhnev-Kosygin have
found so intractable. ( I
95R001100030010-9
Address -
City -
Registered (VFA-080)
with the U. S.
Government's Advisory
Committee on
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^ Please sen me more information. Tor 7 HP39
 /17: CIA-RDP80B01495Rb01100030010-9
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Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP80BD1495RO011'00030010-9
 Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP80B01495RO01100030010-9
TRANSMITTAL SLIP
DATE
3, 7/69
TO:
M roctor
ROOM NO. BUILDING
F1.
RM 36-8 FORM NO I .2 A WHICH MAYBE USED.
1 FEB 5 55 `I'
Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP80BOl 495RO01 100030010-9