SUGGESTIONS FOR A PAPER ON THE PRC

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01495R000500100005-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 17, 2006
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: July 10, 1975
• Content Type: MF

a Approved For Release 2006/11/06 S&P80B01495R000500100005-4
4KV
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
10 July 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: Brigadier General J. M. Thompson., USA
Director for Estimates
Defense Intelligence Agency
SUBJECT: Suggestions for a Paper on the PRC
1. On 9 July I had a productive exchange with
25X1 Ion
estimates on FRC intentions in We came
to the conclusion that a relevant and significant paper
could be written now, prior to the President's trip to
China, on "PRC Military Options in 1976 in the Taiwan area
and in the South China Sea."
3. We would introduce the paper with an explanation
that the Chinese, in the persons of Vice Premier TENG Hsiao
ping and Foreign Minister CHIAO Kuan hua, had recently and
publicly stated that China would not renounce the use of
?IOPI/CDF This. Paqe_
;P' C
Approved For Release 2006/11/06 : LA
 in solving the Taiwan problem. In January 1974 the Chinese
pulled off a successful and limited Lary operation in the
Paracels Chinese conventional
forces are currently well-equipped and.well-motivated and have
recently conducted maneuvers designed to deal with secondary
military powers such as they would encounter in these areas.
Even should the Chinese renounce the use of force with regard
to Taiwan itself, these military options still would be open.
to them.
4. We would also recognize the constraints on China.,
especially the presence of the USSR, China's need for sta-
bility and its accommodations reached with the U.S. On the
other side of the coin, china faces rising Vietnamese amb i-
tions in contested areas and the prospect of nuclear weapons
on Taiwan.
5. I have discussed this with the NSC which agrees
that a paper of this kind would be an important contribution.
My suggestion is that DE undertake to prepare the basic paper
setting a deadline of 10.September 1975 for the finished
product. I would appreciate your views.
1*1/111
?+ J R~ I, i l l e y
Nationa Intelligence Officer
for China
Distribution:
Orig. - Addressee
1 NSC (Mr. Solomon)
1 - State/INR (Mr. Williams)
1 - D/DCI/NIO
2 - NIO/CH
1 - NIO/RI
1 - DDI
1 - C/EA
t?Y1OPI/ 'F This Page
Approved For Release 2006/11/ 11,,- DP801301495R000500100005-4
 Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP80B01495R000500100005-4
Approved For Release 2006/11/06: CIA-RDP80B01495R000500100005-4