POSSIBLE REQUEST BY PETERSON FOR AN NIE ON FOREIGN REACTIONS TO THE NEW US ECONOMIC POLICIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01495R000200050008-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 16, 2006
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: October 14, 1971
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/101 E'P801301495R000200050008-0
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
SUBJECT Possible Request by Peterson for an
NIE on Foreign Reactions to the New
US Economic Policies
1. Implementation of the foreign aspects of the
new US policy (NEP) apparently has passed the sparring
stage and is about to enter the stage of serious
negotiations. On 9 October Peterson organized four
interagency working groups dealing respectively with
monetary, defense, and trade questions and with strategies
concerning the import surcharge and investments control.
Each of these groups is to prepare a paper presenting
a set of policy options for consideration by the
Coordinating Group of the CIEP on Friday 15 October
(See Attachment A). In the same memorandum which
established the four working groups Peterson also
expressed the view that a broader look at available
information bearing on the chances of success of the
NEP was needed. In particular:
1. A better means to share basic factual
information among the Coordinating Group Members,
including results of meetings;
2. Perhaps a mechanism to assess the trend
in the reactions of others; and
3. An estimate of possible countermeasures
of foreign governments.
DeanGHinton of the CIEP staff chaired an interagency
on October 13th, which was attended by I
detached from OER, to discuss this Peterson
reques . A variety of questions was raised at the
meeting, most of which concern the political and
economic impact of the US measures on foreign countries
and the reactions of foreign governments (See Attach-
ment B). Apparently it was felt that an NIE could becL.,
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useful instrument for shedding light on some of these
questions. Hinton is willing to let us draft terms of
reference, to which he could then react informally.
This would allow an opportunity to iron out any problems
before Peterson took formal action to request an NIE
from the DCI.
2. The request is a difficult one for an intelli-
gence Agency to handle. We do not know what is U.S.
policy, except in very general terms, although presumably
the 4 CIEP working group papers will cast some further
light on this matter. An estimate of foreign reactions
to alternative US policies could come dangerously
close to a judgment as to the appropriateness and
effectiveness of the policies themselves. Obviously
there is much potential for trouble here. On the other
hand, sticking to a factual description of reactions to
date would be an insignificant contribution and, in any
case, not an NIE. Nevertheless, I believe there is a
need for a broad look at foreign reactions through eyes
that are not continuously fixed at a single, narrow
part of the problem. And, given a general disinclination
to rely solely on State's judgment, the intelligence
community is the obvious choice.
3. We have, it seems to me, four possible courses
of action:
1. Turn down the request on the grounds that
it is notflappropriate subject for an intelligence
Agency.
2. Accept an NIE under the general conditions
suggested by the CIEP staff - namely that we
draft the terms of reference.
3. Turn down the request for an NIE but
offer as a substitute some sort of joint memorandum
(a CIA memorandum or perhaps a CIA/INR memorandum).
4. Turn down the request on the grounds
that it is too sweeping but express a willingness
to do studies on particular aspects of the
problem -- to be more clearly defined -- on which
we have special competence.
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4. I do not believe we can flatly refuse the
request, because of the evident need for some intelli-
gence input. An NIE would involve some disadvantages,
including rather cumbersome procedures and inclusion
of Agencies (the military agencies) which have little
or no interest in the matter. On the other hand an
NIE would leave CIA less exposed in case of major
differences on sensitive issues and might make it
easier to obtain a reasonably objective input from
the State Department. A joint project other than an
NIE would be administratively simpler but would
probably mean OER taking the lead and having to coordinate
its draft with others. This should not present any
great difficulty if coordination were limited to CIA,
but in that case, CIA could end up out on a limb.
On the other hand coordination with State could prove
very sticky. The fourth alternative -- to wait for
more specific requests -- could make our task easier,
but, given the fact that the policy agencies probably
all want different things, there is a strong possibility
that we would end up writing on the wrong questions.
4. From the point of view of OER and the DDI
generally I believe an NIE would be the best response,
if ONE and the DCI agree. It is essential, however,
to achieve a meeting of minds, first, between the CIA
units involved, and second, between us and the CIEP
staff. Attached is a draft outline of some of the
broad topics I believe might legitimately be covered
in an NIE. With respect to Peterson's original request,
such a study would contribute to the policy makers'
factual information and would assess foreign reactions.
However, it would deal only in general terms with
possible foreign countermeasures.
5. If you agree, I propose to discuss this matter
with OCI and ONE before the end of the week so you can
have -a. joint recommendation before taking the matter
Director
ECO nomic Research
Attachments:
As stated
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