CONCEPT AND STATUS OF THE ABM STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01138A000100070020-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 7, 2001
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: April 30, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Relea 02/01/09 : CIA M gB01138A0001W70020-5
30 April 1969
Concept and Status of the ABM Study
. The general conceptual approach of the ABM Study is illustrated
schematically in Figure 1. In simple terms, the problem requires
definition of intelligence needs on the Soviet ABM (specifying an observable
set), description of the available means to fulfill these needs (specifying
the capabilities of an ensemble of collectors), and computation of the
incremental effectiveness of changes in the collector' ensemble.'
With respect to definition of intelligence needs, the task ranges
from specification of our already extensive knowledge of the current
Soviet ABM System to specifications of all the required information
about an as yet undeveloped ABM system. It appears certain that this
wide range would cover any day-to-day real life situation. Within this
range the type and detail of information required for different purposes
-- for example, by different consumers -- may produce different results.
The initial attempt will be to determine if the study results are sensitive
to. the differences offered by such a range. If they are, there are two
alternatives to be pursued: the first, narrow the range so that it is more
realistic, then see if the study results are still sensitive; second, display
alternative results for appropriate subranges.
With respect to description of collection systems, the primary
need is to specify basic capabilities to make observations as compared
to required accuracies and timeliness or periodicity. Basic capabilities
are being determined independent of the existence of competing collectors.
25X1 B
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A likely schedule, expressed in terms of tasks, might be as
follows:
1. Specify the existing data base and relate value to observational
accuracy -- 3 weeks.
2. Check out program on computer and investigate precision
needed in subset selection -- 4 weeks.
3. Finalize collector capabilities and put in required format --
2 weeks.
4. Identify guides to observable subsets -- 1 week.
5. Develop relative values for observables in subsets (OSD/SA)
-- 5 weeks.
25X1A
6. Make runs directly relating to desired type of results (must
follow at least Step 2) -- 3 weeks.
7. Preparation of final report -- 2 weeks.
The above time estimates are based on the expectation of having
available the following interim assistance:
-- From NSA, DIA and CIA - a series of 1 /2 day consultations
with the persons who filled in the collector capability forms
in order to accomplish Step 3.
-- From NSA and State - one competent (and cleared) systems
analyst (or Operations Researcher) for 3 weeks from each.
From DIA one com etent substantive intelligence analyst for
25X1A 3 weeks
With the above support, and with the quantitative input from OSD/SA
assumed available on 30 May, the study could be completed by no later
than 15 June. This tight time schedule assumes a concurrent attack on
practically every problem. Without the additional support it might still
be possible to meet this time schedule, but at an unknown, though con-
siderable, loss in the number of variations and degree of refinement
in the results.
Approved For Release 2002/01/09 : CIA-RDP80B0l138A000100070020-5