SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT'S BOARD OF CONSULTANTS ON FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES 30 SEPTEMBER 1960 TO 1 APRIL 1961
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CIA-RDP80B01083A000100200023-8
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Document Creation Date:
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date:
March 22, 2012
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Publication Date:
April 1, 1961
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REPORT
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SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT'S
BOARD OF CONSULTANTS ON FOREIGN
INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES
30 September 1960 to 1 April 1961
I. National Intelligence
A. National Intelligence Estimates
1. For the six-month period, 30 September 1960 to 1 April 1961,
twenty-nine National Intelligence Estimates were produced.* An
additional three estimates were ready for USIB action at the close
of the last quarter. In the corresponding period of last year,
25 estimates were completed. The total for the year ending 1 April 1961
was 59 compared with 53 in the previous 12-month period.
2. In addition to the increase in the production of formal
estimates, there has been a growing demand for less formal papers
and estimative judgments on a broad variety of intelligence and
policy questions. Numerous special memoranda and briefings have
been prepared in response to specific requests of the DCI and of
high officials in the new administration. The subject-matter of
the memoranda reflects the many and varied crisis situations and
matters of urgent international concern which have marked this period--
Cuba, the Congo, Laos, Berlin, Algeria, Portugal, El Salvador, Brazil,
Israel, the Moscow Manifesto, Communist China's nuclear weapons
program, the Eichmann case, the food shortage in Communist China, the
problems of NATO, and many others.
3. Although only four estimates were completed by the Eastern
European Staff in this period, they have been heavily committed in
the preparation of a number of very large annual Soviet studies which
will be published in the present quarter. As noted in previous reports,
the major part of their effort. has been directed toward.Soviet military
policy and capabilities, and the probable course of Soviet foreign
policy in the light of the growth of Soviet power as evidenced by their
missile and space achievements. They have also given much attention
to Sino-Soviet relations. The papers currently in preparation
include estimates on intelligence warning of attack, guided missiles
and space vehicles, capability for long-range attack, and air defense
* A list of estimates completed in this period is attached as
Annex A to this report.
THIS Doc-J,::,
ASOURC'SEC T
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A HISTORICAL PAPER
DO NOT DESTROY
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capabilities.
4. Military estimates relating to advanced weapons continue
to be hampered by the absence of evidence, which forces heavy reliance
upon deduction and inference. This situation leaves room not only for
different estimates of the present status of these programs, particularly
the ICBM, but also for different views on ultimate force goals and
strategies. Many of these problems have been resolved, but not all of
them, and it is expected that the forthcoming estimate of the ICBM
program will contain a broad range of views. ONE is currently meeting
with consultants retained by the DDI to review the methodology of
operations analyses prepared in support of military estimates.
5. These problems, and the progress achieved in resolving them,
have been reflected in the comprehensive annual estimate on Soviet
policy and capabilities
noted above. They have also occupied the staff in the preparation of
forthcoming estimates on Soviet guided missiles and long-range attack
capabilities.
6. Developments in Soviet military strength have been a central
consideration in judgments about Soviet foreign policy. It continues
to be difficult to make useful estimates about the amount of military
risk which the USSR perceives in various situations and the degree of
risk which it will knowingly incur. Some ,consensus has been achieved
in these matters on a general level in the comprehensive paper on
Soviet capabilities and policies, which has been subsequently applied
in estimates on specific situations, e.g. Laos.
7. Other problems in estimating Soviet foreign policy have arisen
from tactical shifts in that policy as the US changed administrations
and under the impact of the Sino-Soviet dispute. The first of these
areas is largely overt and has presented no particular intelligence
problems. The community's ability to assess Sino-Soviet relations,
however, has benefited markedly from major advances in covert
intelligence.
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8. A very significant development in the past six months has
been further evidence of a trend, noted in earlier reports, toward
increasing estimative concern for the emerging countries of Africa and
for the chronic problems of Latin America exacerbated by the crisis in
Cuba. Of the eight estimates prepared by the Western Europe/Latin
American/Africa staff, three were on Africa and three on Latin America.
Two of the African pavers
specs estimates prepared at the reques o ; the rd
was a regularly scheduled estimate initiated b ONE. All of the
were
prepared in response to the needs of the State Department in connection
with pending policy consideration of those areas. During the past
12 months eight estimates have been devoted to Latin American problems--
primarily in the Caribbean area. This is more than double the average
number of estimates prepared on Latin America in the years prior to 1958.
Similarly, only five estimates on Africa were issued in the first six
years of ONE's operation. Since 1956, however, 20 estimates on this area
have been published.
9. Some steps have already been taken to improve our capabilities
for dealing with the rapidly increasing demands in the African and
Latin American areas, and others are contemplated. During the past
year a fully qualified African specialist has been added to the staff
and we have also strengthened our staff capabilities on Latin America.
By means of frequent briefings by experts and others recently returned
from these areas and also by on-the-spot observations by both Board and
Staff members, ONE has made good progress in keeping abreast of the
rapidly developing situations. In order to take cognizance of these
increased responsibilities, it is also planned to establish, in the near
future, a separate Latin America/Africa staff.
10. In addition to the foregoing estimates on Latin America and
Africa, the Western European Staff produced two major and somewhat
IAs noted in the last report, this type
of broad topical paper reflecting particular policy needs has been
requiring the increasing attention of the estimative staff. No papers
were prepared on individual Western European countries.
11. The largest concentration of estimates in this period was
on Asia, with special attention focused on the crisis in Laos and
on developments in Communist China and South Korea.
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12. Communist China continues to be the primary area of estimative
interest in the Far East, with special emphasis on relations with the
USSR, and on capabilities in the field of nuclear weapons. The special
Task Force on Sino-Soviet Relations, noted in the last report, has
continued to function under the chairmanship of ONE, bringing to
bear on this vital matter all available materials and analytical
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This paper was prepared in response to a need for an
intelligence evaluation of the serious food shortage developing in
that area.
13. Although the Near East was relatively calm during these
six months, as compared with Africa and Southeast Asia, one special
estimate was prepared on very short notice
11i. The USIB approved in January the annual revision of the list
of Priority National Intelligence Objectives (DCID 1/3) for which
ONE has primary responsibility in the intelligence community. The
further refinement of this list has resulted in increasingly useful
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guidance to the intelligence community in the allocation of research.
and collection efforts. The new listings of the Intelligence
Priorities Collection Committee are now based on the PNIO's in order of
priority rather than on an area basis as in the past. ONE has continued
its guidance in the scheduling of national estimates in the Quarterly
Revision of the Estimates Program which it drafts in consultation with the
NSC Staff, other components of CIA, and the USIB representatives.
Significant gaps in intelligence are identified and the community alerted
through the issuance of "post-mortems" on completed estimates. The
quality and accuracy of the estimating process are checked by means of
"validity studies" which critically examine existing estimates in the
light of the developing situation.
15. In the first half of this period this office continued to
provide support to policy makers through the comments prepared by
members of the Staff on NSC and OCB papers. As noted earlier in this
report, the demand has increased for timely memoranda and briefings on
matters relating to current crisis situations as well as on policy-planning
matters with both short and long-term implications. ONE has participated
in the briefing of a large number of senior officials of the new
administration, including the President. Individual members of the
Board of National Estimates and of the Staff participate in a variety of
activities for which they have special qualifications. A senior officer
of ONE is a full-time member of the Staff of the Net Evaluation Sub-
committee of the NSC, another is on a year's assignment with the Council on
Foreign Relations in New York. During the first half of this period one
board member was Executive Secretary of the President's Commission on
National Goals; he has since been appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary
of Defense for National Security Affairs. Another Board member is
Director of the Policy Staff of the Disarmament Administration. The
Naval member of the :Board has been CIA Representative to the NATO
Standing Group Ad Hoc Committee.
16. The Assistant Director for National Estimates received the
National Civil Service Award on 21 March in recognition of his unique
contribution to the intelligence community and to the government
in his long and distinguished career in the field of national intelligence.
B. National Intelligence Survey (NIS)
1. A major development during the reporting period was the Joint
Chiefs of Staff report on NIS requirements and priorities to meet the
needs of the military establishment. Based on a comprehensive survey
of all unified and specified commands and principal DOD components, the
report emphasized the military establishment's requirement for early
completion of initial coverage (notably in Africa and Latin America
under the revised JCS Priorities) and accelerated maintenance of
substantially the entire NIS program as presently constituted.
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Recognizing that this cannot be accomplished at full scale with presently
available capabilities in the NIS producing agencies, the NIS Committee
has the Intelligence Board's approval for undertaking a number of
emergency measures--including suspension of production on certain low
priority areas, stop-gap Chapter I type (Brief) coverage for some 30
newly emerging states and other underdeveloped areas, and maximum use
of NIS consolidated chapters--designed to significantly increase the
number of priority topics and areas which can be given NIS coverage with
a production level which for some time has been below the established
annual requirement.
2. The number of NIS topical sections produced to date now totals
more than 5+00, of which approximately 1100 sections have been revised
under the maintenance production.
II Departmental Intelligence
A. Current Intelligence
1. The chief emphasis in OCI reporting, during the period
30 September 1960 to 1 April 1961, has been on the developing
situations in Laos and the Congo, with particular attention being
devoted in each case to Sino-Soviet Bloc activities. In addition,
full coverage has been given to Bloc relations with Cuba, to Communist
pressures on Berlin and attacks on the United Nations Secretariat and
its activities, and to the Sino-Soviet dispute, particularly the
withdrawal of Soviet technicians from China last summer and the meeting
of world Communist leaders in Moscow last November. Our publications
treated fully bloc internal developments, principally new weapons and
improvements in space technology, and agricultural difficulties. The
bloc reactions to last fall's US presidential elections and to the
inauguration and immediate post-inaugural period were treated in
considerable detail.
2. Other developments which have been followed closely include
the increase in Communist activity in South Vietnam, the differences
between India and Communist China, the uncertainties arising out of the
Iranian elections, the uprising against the Emperor in Ethiopia,
political developments in the newly independent African states, and most
recently disturbances in Angola. Reporting on Latin America has been
expanding, with particular attention being given to the situation in
Cuba, the elections and new administration in Brazil, and the change of
governments in El Salvador. Other subjects given full treatment include
the Algerian situation and preliminaries leading toward negotiations
between De Gaulle and the Algerian rebels; and the growing instability
of the Salazar regime in Portugal.
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3. During this period OCI continued to prepare materials used
by the Director of Central Intelligence for briefings of the
Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates during the election
campaign. With the reconvening of the nuclear test ban talks
in Geneva in March 1961, a daily intelligence support cable has
been resumed. In October 1960, the USIB special committee on
Berlin was reactivated, and has been issuing regular reports; OCI
provides the chairman for this committee and does a major portion of
the committee's substantive work. USIB also established an Ad Hoc
Working Group on Cuba, with OCI providing the chairman; this group
issued studies on the military build-up of the Cuban armed forces
under Castro with emphasis on the receipt of Soviet Bloc arms and
technicians.
4+. The CRITIC system for transmitting critical information to
Washington has improved during the reporting period. The CRITICQ.I
net is delivering an increasing proportion of CRITIC messages F
minutes or less.
The Critical Communications Committee is
undertaking remedial action.
B. Economic and Geographic Intelligence Production
1. Economic
a. A significant part of ORR's economic intelligence research
activity continues to be devoted to production and deployment aspects
of the Soviet guided missile program. This office is also engaged in
intensive research on growth of the Soviet economy and on the present
economic difficulties in Communist China, highlighted by the recent
deterioration in Sino-Soviet relations. Bloc economic activities in
the underdeveloped countries of the Free World also continue to be of
major concern to this office.
b. The ad hoc inter-office DD/I Task Force, formed in April
1960 to intensify the research effort on the production and deployment
aspects of Soviet ballistic missile systems from medium to inter-
continental ranges, has continued in operation during the period
under review. ORR provides the leadership and bulk of the research
personnel of this group, with the remainder coming from the Guided
Missiles Division of OSI and from OCI. This concentration of
resources has facilitated the undertaking of a comprehensive program
for research in depth in order to narrow the range of uncertainty
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surrounding the community's estimate of the pace and magnitude
of Soviet long-range ballistic missile programs. This research,
now well underway, has produced several studies on specific
areas in the USSR suspected of long-range missile deployment and
has resulted in a better understanding of the role of some of the
missile production facilities. The Task Force has also produced
studies highlighting the limitations of intelligence collection
coverage and an assessment of their effects on the community's
estimate of ICBM deployment. A smaller group of research personnel
remaining in the Guided Missiles Branch of ORR continues to
assess Soviet production and deployment activities for all other
missile systems, including antiballistic and submarine launched
weapons. As in the past, these various direct efforts are
augmented by the research of specialists in other ORR branches
concerned with missile-associated activities in transportation,
construction, communications, chemicals, electronics and special
metals.
c. Economic developments in the Soviet Union during 1959-1960
appear to confirm ORR's estimates of economic growth through 1965.
The USSR's massive investment program has been increased during
this period significantly above the already ambitious Seven Year
Plan (1958-65) targets to an annual level about equal to that of
the U.S. The manpower problem, which in 1959 threatened to
impose a restraint on future Soviet growth, appears to have been
alleviated by the armed forces reduction and by measures taken to
increase the participation of youth and women in the labor force.
The Soviet economic leadership, acutely aware that plan over-
fulfillment will depend in part upon improvements in productive
efficiency, has sought to achieve this through such measures as
hinging managerial bonus payments to the achievement of planned
cost reductions and incentives for technological innovation and
adaptation.
d. The nature and significance of technical change in
Soviet industry is a subject of vital interest to ORR's examination
of economic growth. ORR's recently completed basic study of Soviet
computer production indicates that, although computer production
will be expanded considerably, the USSR is far behind the U.S.
in computer output and capability, a condition which could restrict
the application of automation during the Seven Year Plan. Automation
is, however, only one form of technical change. Others of possible
equal significance to Soviet growth potential include: the
introduction of new processes into production enterprises, the
modernization and replacement of facilities, and the extension and
intensification of mechanization of production and auxiliary
operations.
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e. The situation with respect to agriculture in the USSR has
been of particular concern to ORR in the period under review.
Agriculatural production in 1960 made little progress toward the
achievement of the Seven Year Plan (1959-65) goals, and as a
result major revisions in the organization of agriculture in the
USSR have occurred. It is too early, however, to predict the
probable course of these changes in stimulating agricultural
production.
f. Another matter of economic intelligence interest in the USSR
during the period was the growing Soviet activity in Free World
petroleum markets, which, because of Soviet willingness to accept
payment in soft currencies or in commodities, presents Western
companies with a very difficult type of competition.
g. ORR's analysis of economic development in Communist China is
directed largely toward current economic difficulties and their
effects on the Chinese program for rapid industrialization. These
economic difficulties center on two major developments: (1) failures
in agricultural production in 1960, the second consecutive year of poor
crops, and (2) deterioration in Sino-Soviet economic relations,
highlighted by the sudden withdrawal in the summer of 1960 of all the
2,000 to-x,000 Soviet industrial technicians stationed in China.
With per capita food consumption in 1960 probably lower than in any
year since the reconstruction period (1950-52), the Chinese leadership
has (1) arranged for net imports in 1961 of 2 million tons of grain (in
contrast to net exports of 1.6 million tons in 1959); (2) reduced the
already inadequate food rations by perhaps 10 percent; (3) curtailed
the extraordinary demands made on the energy of the population, e.g.,
by reducing overtime work and propaganda meetings; and (1) given
agriculture increased priority for manpower and investment. With
the withdrawal of Soviet technicians and a shift in emphasis from
all-out production of basic industrial commodities to emphasis on
quality, variety, and better balance of output, heavy industry is
now in a period of retrenchment. Light industry is also suffering
from a lack of raw materials caused by the difficulties in
agriculture. ORR will continue to assess the short-run and long-
term effects of these difficulties with particular emphasis on
agricultural prospects and Sino-Soviet economic relations.
h. The analysis of Sino-Soviet Bloc economic activities in the
underdeveloped countries of the Free World continues to form a
significant portion of ORR's mission. These activities were
vigorously pursued during the period. In Latin America, Bloc efforts
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were dominated by the growing partnership with Cuba. In Africa,
Ghana and Guinea were major targets, while gains in Indonesia,
Burma and Cambodia were significant in Southeast Asia.
i. Major special support projects during the period included a
study on East German vulnerability to Western economic sanctions
conducted at the request of the State Department and detailed
studies of civil aviation and telecommunications in Cuba prepared
for the CAB and DD/P respectively.
2. Geographic
a. The preparation of special geographic intelligence
studies in response to developments in critical areas of the world
continued to receive major attention. Analyses of geographic
factors underlying the situations in Laos, the Federation of
Rhodesia and Nyasaland, and the Congo were disseminated to agencies
concerned with U.S. security interests in those areas. Research
was also undertaken on the Dutch-Indonesian sovereignty dispute
over West New Guinea.
b. Extensive and varied support was provided on problems of
guided missile intelligence.' The area of the USSR observed by
Western intelligence sources from January 1959 to February 1961
was calculated in an estimate for use in briefing the President
on the deployment question. Geographic research was also concerned
with the assessment of Soviet capabilities
Similar work is being conducted in support of
missiles intelligence in the rest of the Bloc.
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f. In conjunction with the Army, ORR is engaged in a priority
program designed to reidentify and locate important intelligence
targets in the USSR. The primary purpose of this program is to
provide a better framework against which information on Soviet
missile sites can be quickly evaluated. As a summary of existing
intelligence on an area basis, the project will also provide a
basic intelligence reference and guide for military planning.
Steps have been taken to incorporate SAC's requirements in the
program.
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Dissemination and Utilization of ORR Products
1. Economic
a. ORR's principal contributions to national intelligence
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estimates during the period were concerned with the economic
prospects of the Soviet Union and Communist China and economic
aspects of the Soviet missile threat and other phases of Soviet
military capabilities. The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence
Committee (CMAIC) of USIB has been the principal consumer and
disseminator of ORR's research on production and deployment of
long-range ballistic missiles. ORR provides the chairman and Agency
member respectively on GMAIC's Working Groups on production and
deployment. Briefing responsibilities on these subjects have
continued. An Office representative joined the Director and
other Agency personnel in briefing the President on the Soviet
long-range missile program.
b. During this period the Guided Missile Intelligence Collection
handbook prepared by the inter-office DD/I Task Force received
wide distribution throughout the world;
are using it as a primary interrogation, briefing and debriefing
manual for the collection of guided missile intelligence.
c. ORR has continued its support role to the Office of
Current Intelligence and the Office of Basic Intelligence. Support
to the US-USSR exchange program in the form of briefings, itineraries,
guidance interpreter services and evaluations has been particularly
heavy during the period. The periodic reports on Bloc economic
activities in underdeveloped countries published and distributed
through the EIC mechanism have been augmented by special projects
for the Department of State, Department of Commerce and other
government agencies. Intelligence support both in Washington and
at COCOM meetings in Paris was provided to the Economic Defense
community during this period.
d. A number of the office's research reports have been
found appropriate for dissemination outside the government in
unclassified form. They have been distributed to U.S. academicians
interested in Soviet and Chinese studies, as well as to selected
libraries. This activity is expected to be a considerable aid and
stimulus to outside research in fields of common interest and to the
office's recruiting activities.
2. Geographic
a. A special briefing was presented to the Chief of
Naval Operations on Soviet objectives and activities in Antarctica
and their implications for U.S. defense tasks. An intelligence
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In particular, intelligence
assessments on Soviet objectives in Antarctica were provided
to State, Defense and the JCS for use in planning for the
implementation of the inspection provisions of the Treaty.
b. Soviet capabilities in the geodetic positioning of
targets were described in a briefing for the President's Scientific
Advisory Committee. A special map and text briefing aid on
geographic factors in the Laotian conflict was prepared on a crash
basis in support of the U.S. delegation to the March 1961 SEATO
meeting in Bangkok.
d. In support of the increased tempo of area training activity
at the Foreign Service Institute, ORR is undertaking an expanded
program of geographic lectures on Far Eastern, Near Eastern, and
African areas.
e. During the reporting period, 841 maps and charts were
published by the Cartography Division with major production supporting
intelligence publications of the DD/I. Some components for whom
graphics were prepared, such as State and the DD/P area, appreciably
increased their requirements.
f. Approximately 200,000 maps were provided by the Map
Library to requesters in the intelligence areas during the reporting
period. There has been a considerable upswing in the utilization of
the products and services of the Map Library.
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Coordination of Intelligence
1. Economic
a. The EIC has continued its series of publications on
Sino=Soviet Bloc economic activities in underdeveloped areas. This
includes the biweekly reports that cover current developments on
a factual basis, and the analytical semi-annual report that describes
the economic activities of the Bloc in relation to over-all objectives.
wide distribution of the biweekly and semi-annual reports
within the U.S. Governmen
IThe brief quarterly report formerly prepared for the now
defunct Council on Foreign Economic Policy has been discontinued.
b. Work on the annual Summary Report on Communist China's
Trade and Transport is progressing according to schedule and will be
published by the EIC in July. It includes the major developments
during 1960 and predictions and prospects for 1961.
c. A new format was used for the "Survey Listing of Internal
and External Economic Research Projects on Selected Non-Bloc Areas,
1 July 1959 - 30 June 1960" (EIC-S-35). The next survey, in the new
format, will combine the annual listings of both the Sino=Soviet Bloc and
Free World areas and will be published on a calendar-year basis.
2. Geographic
b. As an outgrowth of a briefing of the Chief of Naval
Operations on Soviet Antarctic operations and subsequent meetings
with representatives of ONI, a closer coordination in the
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surveillance of Soviet activities in Antarctica, particularly
those involving portions of the high seas to which the Treaty applies,
is being effected.
c. Periodic meetings of informal discussion groups on the
Arctic, Africa, and Southeast Asia continue to stimulate exchange of
vital information and ideas within the Agency and, in the case of
Africa, within the intelligence community.
C. Scientific and Technical Intelligence
1. Among the highest priority research of the Office of Scientific
Intelligence is a major effort toward assessment of Soviet Pesearch
and development concerning nuclear weapons and weapons delivery systems,
especially guided missiles.
(Additionally, attention is
being given to Soviet research and development of second generation
missiles.
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IV, Reference Services
A. Developments in the Intelligence Community
1. The USIB Committees on Documentation (CODIB) and Procurement
(PROCIB), chaired by the Assistant Director and Deputy Assistant
Director of OCR respectively, continued their increasingly active
roles. Chinese Communist publications drop-off continued to
command considerable PROCIB attention, with, for example, November 1960
journal receipts only 10% of the total received in November 1959;
the same low level obtains in April 1961. Procurement efforts
to obtain Cuban publications were increased and plans for a survey
tour of publications availability in Latin America for mid-1961 were
developed. CODIB had a particularly active season, devoting much of
its attention to the development of a common format for intelligence
information reports for compatibility and greater uniformity in input
to mechanized or automated information processing systems; the activities
to this end of the newly developing automation staff within the State
Department are most encouraging, since Foreign Service reporting constitutes
40% of OCR's input. Current developments in equipment or systems design were
considered by CODIB in an expanded program of briefings and demonstrations
by manufacturers, the high point being a 10 day trip by the Committee
to the West Coast to visit 11 companies and two military service
organizations. CODIB is proceeding with the development of a plan for
a study of the information processing activities of the Intelligence
Community, with emphasis on the use of automatic data processing
and the development of compatible systems. This was directed by the
USIB in March 1961. An especially urgent Community need is that of
a secure machine-language-byproduct typewriter for use in overseas
installations to provide for direct input to information processing
systems and for tie-in with communications facilities for rapid
transmittal to Headquarters; this need is being pursued by a newly
created CODIB Working Group. Other such groups were established
during this reporting period to consider the requirements for inter-
agency facsimile transmission of documents and the development of a
standard name-check format. In other areas, a survey of Community
file-holdings on foreign institutes, laboratories, schools and
similar organizations was undertaken by OCR through CODIB to determine
the need for and feasibility of establishing a register of this type
of information. Finally, considerable attention was devoted by the
Office and by CODIB to the USIB Security Committee's draft revision of
DCID 11/2 on dissemination and use of intelligence.
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D. Internal Developments
1. Considerable time has been devoted to identifying new
equipment and evaluating both solicited and unsolicited proposals for
systems improvement in OCR, and to participating in a limited
operations survey instituted by the DD/I Automation Staff. In addition,
considerable attention was devoted to the investigations of the Joint
Study Group; the JSG recommendations pertinent to the office or to
CODIB are being or will be implemented as directed.
Attachments
Annex A
3 Charts (A, B, C,)
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