COMMENTS ON ECONOMIC SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80-00926A002600050021-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2012
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: October 19, 1950
• Content Type: REPORT

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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00926A002600050021-7
U V.C.0J. 4.1.11.1i0 Will J.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
INFORMATION REPORT
COUNTRY
SUBJECT
PLACE
ACQUIRED
DATE
ACQU I RED
DATE OF
Poland
Comments on Economic Situation
REPORT
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DATE DISTR. / Oct 1950
NO. OF PAGES 4
NO. OF ENCLS.
(LISTED BELOW)
SUPPLEMENT TO
REPORT NO.
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THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE
OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE ACT 50
U. S. C., 91 AND 32. AS AMENDED. ITS TRANSMISSION OR THE REVELATION
OF ITS CONTENTS IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON 15 PRO.
HIBITED BY LAW. REPRODUCTION OF THIS FORM IS PROHIBITED.
THIS IS UNEVALUATED INFORMATION
1,
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5.
Poland. - UK
volume of sterling is available to Poland
All facts on Polish-CK trade are of public knowledge.
Poland having difficulty meeting commitments (agricultural) under
the UK pact
Two years ago, Poland had a hard time meeting agricultural commitments
due to a serious drought. At that time the Polish people resented
domestic agricultural shortages due to attempts to satisfy commitments.
At present, Poland apparently is encountering no difficulties
in meeting the commitments.
Export Controls
the overall impact of export controls on Poland
Export controls have served to put Poland more and more in the hands of
the Soviets, causing Poland to buy goods from the Soviets.
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STATE
ARMYAIR
NMN
NSRB
FBI
DISTRIBUTION
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the ability and de ree of willin ess of the USSR to supply
items not available because of controls
Ithe USSR is willing to provide Poland with short materials
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for political prices. / the rssn can supply ball
bearings or mining machinery which are of great importance to Polish
industry, to what extent the USSR is able to supply 50X1 -HUM
those of Polandls import needs not satisfied in the West due to export
controls.
dhan es in plans
resulted from controls
no change in economic plans except where they affect
the coal industry, where mechanization has been slowed down considerably
due to Western export controls.
Trade Practices
the extent and method of coordination of Soviet orbit trade
Since the end of World War II, and especially since 1948, Poland has in-
creased its trade with Czechoslovakia- Czechoslovakia has imported sizable
amounts of Polish food products and exported machine tools and other in-
dustrial products to Poland. Otherwise, trade with the USSR and Satellite
countries has remained pretty much on the prewar level. Although some
Satellite countries would like to import Polish goods, they, in turn, have
little to offer to Poland. Bulgaria, for example, in return for certain
Polish products had only rose oil to offer in exchange.
Ithe extent. of. purchasing for Poland by the USSR and other Satellit50X1 -H UM
Countries (particularly cotton),
Although Poland has to buy a much larger percentage of her cotton from
the USSR than before World War II (when most of her cotton was purchased
in the US), such cotton imports are figured by USSR production. I might
add that the quality of Soviet cotton being received in Poland at present
is considerably higher than that received several years ago.
For eign. Exchange
the volume of foreign exchange available to Poland--trend and
composition
After World War II, Poland had no foreign exchange available except for
gold deposits in foreign banks. This gold was used up or committed by
1947. only gold and hard currencies,
as foreign exchange worthy of the name.
For example, Poland has not been very eager to build up a sterling fund.
SECRET/US OFFICIALS ONLY
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the sources of Polish foreign exchange, especially non-US
Sources of dollars\
Poland obtained most of her dollars through exports of coal to northern
and western European countries. Because of the lack of coal following
World War II, Poland could insist on partial payment in US dollars.
in particular, paid for a sizable portion of its coal imports
in US dollars.) likewise bought
some coal from Poland and paid in dollars. Since those early postwar
days, the supply of coal in Europe has become more plentiful and as a
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result, Poland haa neither been able to insist on dollar payments nor has
she netted a sizable portion of her national income in hard currencies
h coal or ard currencies because of
any reserve fund. in ber import needs 50X1-HUM
from coal exports. Poland has been unable to build up
for Which she had to pay in such currency. In this connection, the 20
million dollar coal loan from the USSR in 1946 or 47 should be mentioned.
this was a short-term loan and has since been repaid,
the extent of joint orbit use of exchanee or pooling
any such program would be neither workable nor even sin-
cerely desired from the Soviet point of view. In order to obtain maximum
control over the various Satellites, the Soviet Government will probably
institute a program of bi-lateral coordination between itself and each
of the Satellites.
the locations of Polish foreign exchange--countries cities banks
Poland deposits balances in foreign currency in the economic capitals of
all countries with which she maintains trade. Most of these balances are
very modest. For example, Polish credits in banks do not exceed
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one to two million dollars at any given time. In Poland itself, foreign
exchange is deposited with the Bank Handlowy and the Bank of Poland; these
funds in hard currencies probably do not exceed five million dollars.
methods Of transferring funds other than normal banking channels are
used.
This question has interested me for a considerable period of time. It
appears obvious Poland does not limit herself to the overt
transfer of funds through banks. omatic couriers
occasionally carry some foreign exchange on their persons,
Trade Statistics
the best sources of statistics on Polish trade and finance
Up to two years ago the best publication of Polish trade and finance
statistics was a publication known as CentraIny Urzad Planowanya. Reports
were written in French, English and, of course, Polish and were of espec-
ially good quality. This publication has since been taken over by the
PKGP Under HiIA Minc. The PKGP
is the most important economic organization in Poland, where
all top-level economic planning is carried out. Unfortunately, publica-
tions put out by the PKGP are not very accessible but should be, if ac-
quired, of great value. The Bank PolSki formerly put out extremely good
Statistical reports and financial statements. However, 50X1-HUM
they have stopped issuing such statements. The Bank Handlowy and Economisua
used-to put out very good reports, but whether such reports
are being continued. However, a Communist publication, alaTtogi sometimes
provides better statistical material than the unpolitical pub1ications50X1-HUM
because this party organ is not subject to such severe censorship measures.
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17. extent Polish statistics reliable
18.
19.
On the basis of considerable experience in such matters,\
economic statistics are always so computed as to
serve a countryos immediate political and economic needs, rather than
to provide optimum insight into actual economic conditions. Even in
countries statistics are used in this fashion jcomments about
the reliability Of Polish statistics are therefore to be understood in
relative rather than absolute terms. Until recent years Polish statistics
were fairly reliable. During the last two years or so the regime has at-
tempted to withhold Statistical information from the public not so much
by falsifying available data as by withholding them. A good rule of thumb
in studying Polish statistics at the present time Would. be to distrust
widely circulated statements On the other hand, figures available to
Mine Personally are probably the most reliable, although even he has com-
plained that his subordinates attempted to put sand in his eyes. One of
those accused by Mine of falsifying statistics was Bobrowski, President
of Centralny Urzad Planowanya.
the volume of trade, especially intra-orbit
t radel
statements on trade with other Satellites are generally
accurate. The same cannot be said of statistics concerning trade with
the USSR, especially during the period of 1945-46. The USSR received
sizable amounts of industrial equipment from the Western territories,
e the area previously incorporated in Germany, which are not listed in
Polish-Soviet trade statistics. It is interesting that even well informed
in high Polish Government positions have no reliable data
on the amount of such trade. no unofficial trade
between Poland and. the USSR has been going on since 1946; in other words,
official trade figures for the last three years should be accurate. It is
-only fair to add, however, that Polish public opinion assumes that to this
very day the USSR has received Polish goods over and above those listed in
official statistics.
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am hasis is placed upon meeting intra-orbit commitments as com-
pared with filling Western agreements which provide capital equipment
Up to the present, entirely different commodities have been in-
volved in Polish trade with the East than with the West. 'For this reason,
the problem Of giving priority to intra-orbit trade versus trade with the
West has not yet arisen and is completely theoretical. Naturally, one
would 'assume that in' an. actual test case priority would be assigned to
Satellite countries or at least the USSR.
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