CABLE TO(Sanitized) FROM DIRECTOR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01316A001000080002-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2002
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 20, 1978
• Content Type: CABLE

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ONE ARTICLE FROM OERIS ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW
ENDING 20 APRIL 1978, REQUEST ARTICLE BE PASSED TO AMBASSADOR,
DCM, ECONOMIC SECTION AND OTHER WORKING LEVEL STATE OFFICERS,
THE CARIBBEAN; SOURCES OF ILLEGAL MIGRATION.
1. THE CARIBBEAN REGION IS THE LARGEST SOURCE AFTER
MEXICO OF ILLEGAL MIGRANTS TO THE UNITED STATES, ALTHOUGH
THE ROUGHLY 100,000 CARIBBEAN NATIONALS WHO ENTER THIS
COUNTRY ILLEGALLY EACH YEAR,ARE ONLY ABOUT ONE-SIXTH AS
NUMEROUS AS THE MEXICAN TOTAL, ALMOST ALL CARIBBEAN ILLEGALS
REMAIN IN THE UNITED STATES, 'WHILE THE GREAT MAJORITY OF
MEXICAN ILLEGALS RETURN TO MEXICO. INDEED, IF WE CONCERN
OURSELVES ONLY WITH THOSE ILLEGALS WHO ENTER WITH THE
INTENTION OF REMAINING PERMANENTLY IN THIS COUNTRY, THE
ILLEGAL FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN MAY BE ONE-HALF AS LARGE
AS THAT FROM MEXICO,
THE CARIBBEAN
ILLEGAL MIGRANT APPEARS TO DO LESS WELL ECONOMICALLY IN
THE UNITED STATES THAN HIS MEXICAN COUNTERPART.
(ASTERISK) THIS ARTICLE SUMMARIZES A FORTHCOMING DER REPORT,
THE CARIBBEAN AREA: SOURCES OF ILLEGAL MIGRATION,
FOR PURPOSES OF THE REPORT, THE CARIBBEAN AREA INCLUDES
THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS (EXCEPT CUBA, PUERTO RICO, AND THE
US VIRGIN ISLANDS), BELIZE, AND GUYANA.
ORIGINS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CARIBBEAN ILLEGAL,
2, THE ENGLISH-SPEAKING CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES AS A
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WHOLE SUPPLY.bo PERCENT (()O,000) OF ALL ILLEGALS FROM THE
REGION, ABOUT O'E-HALF OF THIS SHARE COME FROM JAMAICA
(24,000), THE OTHER MAJOR ENGLISH-SPE:.AKING COUNTRIES IN
ORDEROF THEIR IMPORTANCE AS SOURCE AREAS ARE TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO (15,000), GUYANA (71000), AND BARBADOS (4,000).
THE SPANISH-SPEAKING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (35,000) IS THE
LARGEST SINGLE SOURCE OF ILLEGAL MIGRANTS; CREOLE-SPEAKING
HAITI (11,000) RANKS FOURTH,
3. MIGRATION HAS LONG BEEN A WAY OF LIFE IN THE
HEAVILY POPULATED ISLANDS OF THE ENGLISH-SPEAKING' CARIBBEAN, 11 KITH NATIONALS SHOWING LITTLE OF THE ATTACHMENT TO THEIR
HOME THAT CHARACTERIZES THE,MEXICAN MIGRANT, SUCH MIGRATION
IS NECE=SSAR'Y TO KEEP THE ISLANDS FROM BEING HOPELESSLY
OVERCROWDED AND IS TACITLY SUPPORTED SY MOST OF THE
GOVERNMENTS, TRADITIONALLY,,MIGRATION OUTSIDE THE REGION
HAS FOCUSED ON THE UNITED KINGDOM, HOWEVER, IN THE MID-1960S
AFTER THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT CHANGED ITS IMMIGRATION LAWS
TO KEEP OUT CERTAIN COMMONWEALTH NATIONALS, THE FLOW WAS
DIVERTED TO THE UNTIED STATES AND CANADA, THE BULK Or THIS
MIGRATION WAS LEGAL; AT THE SAME TIME, ILLEGAL MIGRATION
FROM THE ENGLISH-SPEAKING CARIBBEAN BEGAN TO PICKUP SPEED,
4, THE DOMINICAN ILLEGAL PRESENTS A SHARP CONTRAST
TO THE MIGRANT FROM THE ENGLISH-SPEAKING CARIBBEAN, ILLEGALS
FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC'TEND TO BE LESS EDUCATED AND
POORER THANTHOSE FROM ANY OTHER MAJOR SOURCE AREA WITHIN
OR OUTSIDE THE CARIBBEAN; ALMOST ONE-HALF ARE FROM RURAL
AREAS.
THE HAITIAN ILLEGAL IS A THIRD TYPE, DESPITE
HAITI'S EXTREME POVERTY, THE HAITIAN MIGRANT IS OFTEN
MORE PROSPEROUS THAN EITHER HIS DOMINICAN OR BRITISH
WEST INDIAN COUNTERPART,. INDEED, ONLY THE RELATIVELY
O
AN CAN AFFORD,THE SUBSTANTIAL COSTS HAITI
OBTAINING EXIT PAPERS AND TRANSPORTATION. THE TYPICAL
HAITIAN ILLEGAL IS A RELATIVELY WELL-EDUCATED URBANITE
WHO CLAIMS A POLITICAL MOTIVATION FOR LEAVING HIS COUNTRY,
6, MOST CARIBBEAN ILLEGALS ENTER THE UNITED STATES
WITH SOME TYPE'OT` DOCUMENTATION; FOR OBVIOUS REASONS LITTLE
SURREPTITIOUS BORDER CROSSIrNG OF THE MEXICAN TYPE TAKES
PLACE, MOST FREQUENTLY, THE CARIBBEAN MIGRANT OBTAINS A
LEGAL NONRESIDENT VISA, WHICH HE SUBSEQUENTLY ABUSES, IN
OTHER CASES, HE USES FORGED PAPERS OR PAPERS OBTAINED UNDER
FALSE PRETENSES, SOME ENGLISH-SPEAKING ILLEGALS USE THE US
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VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A vdAY STATION TO THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES, MANY DOMINICANS GO FIRST TO PUERTO RICO, WHERE
THEY HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY PASSING FOR NATIVES AND OBTAINING
WORK, SOME, AFTER SEVERAL MONTHS OR YEARS IN PUERTO RICO,
WILL FEEL FINANCIALLY SECURE ENOUGH TO MAKE THE JUMP TO
NEW YORK. MANY ILLEGALS, OR COURSE, REMAIN PERMANENTLY IN
,PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ECONOMICS OF MIGRATION.
7, ALTHOUGH MANY ILLEGALS FROM HAITI AND PARTS OF
THE ENGLISH-SPEAKING CARIBBEAN CLAIM POLITICAL MOTIVATION,
THE PRINCIPAL REASON FOR MIGRATION IS ECONOMIC,
WAGE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND
THE CARIBBEAN ARE HUGE, EVEN IN THE HIGH-WAGE
CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES, SUCH AS JAMAICA, THE URBAN
MINIMUM WAGE IS ONLY ONE-THIRD OF THE US AVERAGE WAGE FOR
PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WORKERS, 15 PERCENT OF THAT FOR CLERICAL,
AND ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT OF THAT FOR MANUFACTURING WORKERS
AND CRAFTSMEN, WHILE THE GAP PROVIDES A STRONG ATTRACTION,
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR UPWARD
ECONOMIC MOBILITY AT HOME, EVEN UNIVERSITY-EDUCATED
.PROFESSIONALS IN THE MOST PROSPEROUS CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FIND
THEIR ECONOMIC HORIZONS SEVERELY CIRCUMSCRIBED,
8, IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT IS SURPRISING THAT
EVEN MORE CARIBBEAN NATIONALS ARE NOT MIGRATING, SEVERAL
FACTORS, HOWEVER, MILITATE AGAINST THIS. THE PHYCHOLOGICAL
COST OF PULLING UP ROOTS AND CHANGING CULTURE AND LANUGAGE
ARE IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY FOR RURAL HAITIANS, THESE COSTS
ARE NOT SO HIGH FOR DOMINICANS, WHO GENERALLY MIGRATE VIA
CULTURALLY SIMILAR PUERTO RICO, OR FAR MOST OTHER CARIBBEAN
MIGRANTS WHO SPAEK ENGLISH AND HAVE A LONG TRADITION OF
EXTERNAL MIGRATION,
9, OF EVEN GREATER IMPORTANCE IS THE FINANCIAL
COST OF MIGRATION, IN CONTRAST TO THE ILLEGAL FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO, WHO PAYS $200 TO $300 FOR TRANSPORTATION AND
SMUGGLING FEES, THE COST TO THE HAITIAN IS AT LEAST $450,
INCLUDING OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS AND AIR FARE. MOREOVER,
BRIBES TO CIRCUMVENT LONG, PROCESSING DELAYS CAN ADD
CONSIDERABLY TO THESE COSTS, US RULES RUN UP THE COST OF
OBTAINING NONRESIDENT VISAS. THE MIGRANT, FOR EXAMPLE,
MUST PURCHASE A ROUND TRIP TICKET, WHICH COSTS MORE THAN
$250 BETWEEN MOST ISLANDS AND THE US MAINLAND. HE MUST
ALSO PROVE SELF-SUFFICIENCY, EVIDENCED BY FUNDS IN THE
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BANK AND/OR THE ON;NERSHIP OF PROPERTY, THESE FINANCIAL
COSTS EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MIGRATION--LEGAL OF ILLEGAL--TO
THE. RELATIVELY AFFLUENT CARIBBEAN NATIONAL,
PROSPECTS,
10, WE EXPECT THE INFLUX OF ILLEGAL CARIBBEAN MIGRANTS
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DECADE, THE CHARACTER OF THIS
MIGRATION MILL REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED AS THE CARIBBEAN
AREA BECOMES MOPE URBANIZED AND CONTINUING SLUGGISH
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE LIMITS EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES,
VEN THE RELATIVELY WELL EDUCATED WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
INDING JOBS THAT MATCH THEIR WAGE EXPECTATIONS, ALTHOUGH
RURAL UNDEREMPLOYMENT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE YEARS
AHEAD, FEN AGRICULTURAL WORKERS WILL HAVE THE NECESSARY
UNDS TO MOVE TO THE UNITED STATES, SINCE CANADA AND THE
UNITED KINGDOM WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN THEIR IMMIGRATION
ONTROLS, ONLY THE MOST SKILLED WORKERS WILL GAIN
NTRY TO THESE COUNTRIES,
It, MANY IN THE UNDER-20 AGE BULGE THAT EMERGED
IN 197OS ARE NOW ENTERING THE MIGRATION-PRONE
20 TO 30 AGE GROUP, THEIR NUMBERS ALONE WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY RESULT IN INCREASED ILLEGAL MIGRATION TO THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS AT LEAST, EVEN IF
FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS REDUCE FERTILITY. RATES AS EXPECTED,
THE LARGE NUMBERS OF THOSE ALREADY BORN WILL SUSTAIN
MIGRATION PRESSURES, NONETHELESS, THE DEMOGRAPHIC PUSH TO
MIGRATION WILL NOT HE SO GREAT AS IN THE MEXICAN CASE,
12, BASED ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS.AND ECONOMIC
POTENTIAL, WE EXPECT THAT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, JAMAICA,
AND HAITI WILL INCREASE IN IMPORTANCE AS SOURCE COUNTRIES
AND THAT THE FLOW FROM GUYANA WILL REMAIN AT THE CURRENT
HIGH LEVEL, DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ALSO INDICATE
THAT THE BAHAMAS WILL BECOME A LARGER SOURCE OF CARIBBEAN
ILLEGALS THAN IN THE PAST; BECAUSE OF THEIR SMALL..
POPULATION, HOWEVER, THE ABSOLUTE INCREASE IN BAHAMIAN
ILLEGALS WILL BE SLIGHT, ONLY BARBADOS AND, TO A MUCH
LESSER EXTENT, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SHOW ANY PROSPECTS FOR
A DECLINE IN THE ILLEGAL OUTFLOWv,
13, DIM PROSPECTS FOR ACCELERATED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MAJOR SOURCE COUNTRIES MILITATE AGAINST ANY
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE MIGRATION PATTERN, IRONICALLY,
MODERATE ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT MAY WELL ENCOURAGE ILLEGAL
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 MIGRATION. HAITI IS A CASE IN POINT; INCREASING AID INFLOWS
SHOULD CAUSE ARISE IN REAL URBAN INCOMES THAT WILL
INCREASE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITH THE FINANCIAL WHEREWITHAL
TO LEAVE, ONLY TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH NEW JOBS TO GREATLY REDUCE THE MIGRATION
RATE OF ITS,SKILLC'D 4'V0RKERS. (CONFIDENTIAL) E1r2,3 IMPDET
WNINTEL.>
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ORIG: & AUTH* NFAC/ASA/D/OER
REL CH, CS/NFAC
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A I SECRET
Room 4F,-42
PPG/R&D
Room 7G-07
ER EIWR 78-016, 20 April 1978:
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FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
PPG/R&D Room 7G-07 Hqrs. x5203 I4-20-78
FORM NO. 237 Use previous editions
1-67
nNC SSIFIFD CONFIDENTIAL A I SECRET
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