CABLE (Sanitized) FROM DIRECTOR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01316A001000040003-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 7, 2002
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: March 24, 1978
• Content Type: CABLE

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ONE ARTICLE FROM OER'S ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY R
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/09/ CONFIDENTIAL
ONE ARTICLE FROM OER'S ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW
SOVIET'COMPUTERS; A NEW GENERATION EMERGES,
1. THE USSR, WHILE ON THE THRESHOLD OF A MAJOR NEW
ADVANCE IN COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY, WILL FIND IT EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO REAP SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC. GAINS FROM THE
BREAKTHROUGH,
29 THE RYAD-II, A NEW FAMILY OF DATA PROCESSING
OMPUTER SYSTEMS PATTERNED AFTER THE IBM 370, IS NOW GOING
INTO PRODUCTION, RYAD-II COMPUTERS WILL BE FASTER AND MUCH
MORE VERSATILE THAN THE MODELS BEING REPLACED AND WILL BE
ABLE TO USE IBM 370 SOFTWARE, THE USSR, HOWEVER, CANNOT
ACHIEVE THE FULL CAPABILITIES QF THE RYAD-II WITHOUT ADVANCED
INTEGRATED CIRCUITS FROM THE WEST, THESE COULD BECOME
AVAILABLE LATER THIS YEAR IF CURRENT PROPOSALS FOR THE
RELAXATION OF EMBARGORESTRICTI,ONS ARE ADOPTED. THE NEED
OR HIGH-GRADE ASSOCIATED SOFTWARE AND TECHNICAL MANPOWER,
AS WELL AS THE INEFFECTIVE EMPLOYMENT OF ADVANCED COMPUTERS
AT THE ENTERPRISE LEVEL, WILL LIMIT THE USEFULNESS OF THE
RY.AD-II FOR A LONG TIME,
THE SETTING,
3. THE CEMA-WIDE PROGRAM TO BUILD? THE RYAD SERIES
COMPUTERS--THE FIRST MODERN SOVIET COMPUTERS DESIGNED
SPECIFICALLY FOR DATA PROCESSING--WAS BESET THROUGHOUT THE
NINTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN PERIOD (1971-75) WITH DESIGN AND PRODUCTION
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DIFFICULTIES. PRODUCTION GREW FROM A FEW PROTOTYPES IN 1971
TO AN ESTIMATED 900 UNITS IN 1975; TOTAL OUTPUT WAS ONLY 10
TO 15 PERCENT of WHAT HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER, AND
INCLUDED ONLY THE SMALLER, LESS POWERFUL ES-1020 AND ES-1030
MODELS--BOTH MARKEDLY INFERIOR TO THEIR WESTERN COUNTERPARTS
IN RELIABILITY AND PERFORMANCE,
41 BY 1976, MAINLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED DOMESTIC
PRODUCTION OF IMPROVED SEMICONDUCTOR COMPONENTS, THESE BASIC
RYAD MODELS HAD BEEN MODIFIED, UPGRADED, AND REDESIGNATED
AS THE ES-1022 AND ES-1033, THE NEW PYAD-IS ARE NONETHELESS
STILL LIMITED IN THEIR PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS AND ARE
SOON TO SE SUPERSEDED BY RYAD-II.
TECHNOLOGY GAP,
5. THE RYAD-1I PROGRAM HAS MOVED ALONG RAPIDLY SINCE
IT WAS FIRST ANNOUNCED IN LATE 1974, DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
TIME--MEASURED FROM THE FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED
DEVELOPMENT TO THE DATE OF THE FIRST PRODUCTION PROTOTYPE--
TOOK ABOUT THREE YEARS FOR THE RYAD-Il, COMPARED WITH ABOUT
IVE YEARS FOR THE RYAD-I, NEVERTHELESS, THE TECHNOLOGICAL
GAP WITH THE UNITED STATES, AS REPRESENTED BY IBM, HAS STAYED
AT ABOUT SEVEN YEARS. IN FACT, THE GAP IS MUCH GREATER
WHEN THE FULL RANGE OF EQUIPMENT BEING PRODUCED BY BOTH SIDES
IS CONSIDERED, IBM IN ITS 360- AND 370-SERIES MACHINES
OFFERS A COMPLETE LINE OF COMPUTER SIZES, INCLUDING SOME VERY
LARGE., FAST MODELS, RYAD-I PRODUCTION, IN CONTRAST, CONSISTED
OF ONLY THE SMALLER SIZES, WITH THE LARGER MODELS ONLY NOW
ENTERING SERIES PRODUCTION.
NEW MODELS ADVANCE...
6, THE SOVIETS CLAIM THAT TWO RYAD-II MODELS ARE
,NOW GOING INTO PRODUCTION, THE SMALL ES-1035 AND THE MUCH
MORE POWERFUL ES-1060. THE LATTER COMPUTER, HOWEVER, WAS
UNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE ORIGINAL RYAD-I PROGRAM AND IS NOT
A COMPLETE NEW DESIGN. THE ONLY OTHER RYAD-II MODEL THAT IS
LIKELY 10 GO INTO PRODUCTION DURING THE CURRENT PLAN PERIOD
(1976-80) IS THE ES-1055, BEING DEVELOPED BY EAST GERMANY.
7, THE ES-1035 IS IN THE VERY EARLY STAGES OF PRODUCTION
IN THE USSR, A F?Ew PROTOTYPE MACHINES HAVE BEEN MADE, TESTED,
AND ACCEPTED BY THE CEMA EVALUATION COMMITTEE. THE MINSK
COMPUTER PLANT, THE LARGEST PRODUCER OF COMPUTERS IN THE USSR,
IS NOW MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR SERIES PRODUCTION, DURING
THE TRANSITIQN PHASE AT MINSK, WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 1979,
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RYAD-IS (FS-1022S) WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRODUCED ALONG WITH
THE'RyAD-HIS (ES-1035), THEREBY AVOIDING A SHARP DRnP OFF
IN TOTAL SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN PRODUCTION OF RYADS. BY
1980, RYAD-IIS SHOULD CONSTITUTE ABOUT ONE-HALF OF TOTAL RYAD
PRODUCTION
8. RYAD-II PRODUCTION IS GOING AHEAD EVEN THOUGH THE
CRITICAL SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY COMPONENTS ARE NOT YET AVAILABLE
FROM THE DOMESTIC ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY. SEMICONDUCTOR
`MEMORY--A MEMORY BUILT OUT OF HIGH-DENSITY INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
(IC) WITH AN INFORMATION STORAGE CAPACITY OF ABOUT ONE THOUSAND
.BITS OF INFORMATION ON EACH IC--IS A KEY FEATURE THAT
DISTINGUISHES THE TECHNOLOGY OF RYAD-II FROM RYAD-I, ALTHOUGH
,BY CURRENT WESTERN STANDARDS THIS LEVEL OF DENSITY IS LOW (OFF-THE-SHELF MEMORY COMPONENTS IN THE WEST HAVE 16 TIMES
AS MUCH CAPACITY), IT NONETHELESS REPRESENTS A GIANT ADVANCE
FOR THE RYAD PROGRAM, SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY WILL PERMIT THE
USSR TO DOUBLE THE MEMORY SIZE OF THE RYAD-I IN ONE-FOURTH
OF THE SPACE, WHILE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING THE SPEED OF
.MEMORY OPERATIONS, GREATLY INCREASED MEMORY SIZE MAKES IT
POSSIBLE TO (A) HANDLE MUCH LARGER PROGRAMS AND
MORE,THAN ONE PROGRAM AT A TIME AND (6) ATTACH REMOTE TERMINALS
FOR TIME SHARING, THESE CHARACTERISTICS WOULD PROVIDE THE
USSR WITH ITS FIRST TRUE CAPABILITY FOR COMPUTER-TO-COMPUTER
COMMUNICATIONS,
9, NEITHER THE USSR NOR ANY OF THE OTHER EAST EUROPEAN
PARTICIPANTS IN THE RYAD PROGRAM HAS YET DEMONSTRATED A
CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE ICS OF THE REQUIRED DENSITY. THE
HIGHEST DENSITY IC IN PRODUCTION IN THE USSR IS A 64-BIT
DEVICE; EVEN THESE ARE SCARCE, AND SHORTAGES HAVE CAUSED
DELAYS IN THE PRODUCTION OF RYAD-IS, TO COMPRESS DEVELOPMENT
TIME, THE SOVIETS ARE ATTEMPTING TO COPY SEVERAL HIGH-DENSITY
DEVICES MANUFACTURED BY US FIRMS,
10, SOVIET DESIGNERS, APPARENTLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT WHEN
THE NEW COMPONENT TECHNOLOGY WILL BECOME AVAILABLE, HAVE
DESIGNED RYAD-II MEMORIES TO EMPLOY THE TRADITIONAL MAGNETIC
CORE TECHNOLOGY, USE OF THIS TECHNOLOGY, HOWEVER, WILL
CURTAIL THE NUMBER OF NEW FEATURES OF THE RYAD-II AND GREATLY
REDUCE OVERALL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE, IN.PARTICULAR, IT:'WCULD
BE DIFFICULT TO USE THE RYAD-IIS TO ESTABLISH LARGE COMPUTER
NETWORKS,
?,. BUT QUESTIONABLE IMPACT.
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11. RYAD-IIS WILL HAVE LITTLE SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACT.
FIRST, THE INCREASED SPEED AND'CAPACITY OF RYAD-IIS RAISES
THE PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS OF ASSOCIATED HARDWARE TO LEVELS
THAT, IN SOME CASES, ARE HEYONO THE PEACH OF CURRENTSOVIET
Y' I TyHE SMALLER RYAD-IIS WILL REQUIRE DISC DRIVES
WITH A CAPACITY (30 MEGABYTES) FOUR TIMES GREATER THAN THOSE
NOW BEING PRODUCED IN THE USSR! IT IS NOT CLEAR IF BULGARIA,
WHICH HAS MASTERED PRODUCTION OF SUCH DRIVES, WILL BE ABLE
TO SUPPLY LARGE-SCALE SOVIET NEEDS. THE LARGER RYAD-II
MODELS WILL PEOUTRE DISC DRIVES OF A CAPACITY (100 MEGABYTES)
FAR BEYOND THE' CURRENT MANUFACTURING CAPABILITY OF ANY
COMMUNIST PRODUCER,
120, SECOND,,RYAD-IIS WILL REQUIRE HIGHER PROFESSIONAL
SKILLS FROM SYSTEMS ANIALYSTS, PROGRAMERS, AND SERVICE PERSONNEL.
PROGRAMS '.TO MEET THESE MANPOWER NEEDS ARE PROCEEDING WITH
FAR LESSER PRIORITY THAN PRODUC=TION,
13. THIRD, RYAD-IIS ARE LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER THE SAME
PROBLEMS IN ALLOCATION AND USE THAT HAVE CURTAILED THE
EFFECTIVENESS IOF 42YAD-IS . MANY ENTERPRISES HAVE OVERORDERED
RYADS FAILED TO TRAIN'PERSONNEL IN THEIR USE, AND HAVE SHOWN
MONUMENTAL INDIFFERENCE TO. THEIR DARE AND MAINTENANCE,
M, YA, RAKOVSKIY', DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF GOSPLAN, RECENTLY
COMPLAINED OF ''FREQUENT CASES'WHERE THE MACHINES ARE KEPT
IN A STOREHOUSE.,, ANDM SOMETIMES, UNDER THE OPEN SKY, STILL IN
A CRATE,. FOR 4 TO '6 MONTHS AND EVEN LONGER."
14, FINALLY, RYAD-IIS OFFER THE TYPICAL INDUSTRIAL
FACILITY FEW ADVANTAGES OVER RYAD-I AND SEEM BETTER SUITED
FOR DATA PROCESSING AT HIGHER LEVELS--THE PRODUCTION.ASSOCIATION,
THE r
LAAND REGIONAL AND NATIONAL PLANNING BODIES,
POTENTIAL EFFECTIVENESS AWAITS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF, APPROPRIATE SOFTWARE AND COMPLEX DATA TRANSMISSION
SYSTEMS,
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
15, TO REALIZE THE FULL CAPABILITIES OF RYAD-II
COMPUTERS, ESPECIALLY THE TIME-SHARING FEATURE, THE COMMUNIST
COUNTRIES WWILL HAVE TO TURN TO THE WEST FOR THE REQUIRED
INTEGRATE? CIRCUITS, AS PRE_CELENTt THE EAST GERMANS USED
WESTERN 'TCSENTIRELY IN THE FIRST FEK UNITS OF THEIR RYAD-I
MODEL AND"C'ONY_INUE TO USE SOME WESTERN ICS.
16. THE ICS NEEDED FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY IN
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RYAD-IIS ARE CONTROLLED BY COCOMI EVEN SO, SUBSTANTIAL
QUANTITIES OF THESE COMPONENTS HAVE BEEN ACQUIRED BY THE USSR
AND EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, THESE ACQUISITIONS HAVE ALLOWED
RYAD PRODUCERS'TO DESIGN EXACT PHYSICAL AND PERFORMANCE COPIES
OF THE WESTERN PARTS AND, PROBABLY, TO USE THEM IN PROTOTYPE
RYAD-IIS,
17, THE SUPPLY OF WESTERN MEMORY ICS THROUGH ILLEGAL
CHANNELS IS NEITHER ADEQUATE NOR SUFFICIENTLY DEPENDABLE FOR
USE IN SERIES-PRODUCED RYAD-IIS, LATER THIS YEAR, HOWEVER,
COCOM WILL CONSIDER RELAXING CONTROLS ON ICS TO A LEVEL
THAT WOULD PERMIT FREE EXPORT OF THE NEEDED WESTERN MEMORY
COMPONENTS TO COMMUNIST COUNTRIES, THE USSR AND EAST EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES WOULD BECOME LARGE PURCHASERS UNTIL HIGH-VOLUME
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION IS ACHIEVED,
j8, SOVIET MILITARY AUTHORITIES HAVE BEEN DIRECTLY
INVOLVED IN THE RYAD PRODUCTION PROGRAM AND ARE IMPORTANT
USERS, RYAD-IS ARE,EMPLOYED IN MILITARY-SPACE RESEARCH
INSTITUTES AND IN PLANTS PRODUCING MILITARY HARDWARE, THE
MORE VERSATILE AND LARGER-CAPACITY RYAD-IIS WOULD STRENGTHEN
THESE MILITARY APPLICATIONS, ALSO, THE NETWORKING AND
TIME-SHARING FEATURES OF RYAD-II WILL PERMIT MORE
SOPHISTICATED MILITARY COMMAND AND CONTROL, AUTOMATED AIR
TRAFFIC CONTROL, AND STRATEGIC PLANNING AND TARGETING.
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