TRENDS IN SOVIET CIVIL AVIATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01098A000600040004-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 7, 2000
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: September 1, 1975
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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Secret
Trends in Soviet Civil Aviation
Secret
ER RP 75-25
September 1975
Copy N2
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 015319
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
?5B(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
date impossible to determine
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1. Aeroflot, the Soviet national airline, is the world's largest. Linking more
than 3,700 locations in the USSR and 67 foreign countries over a 500,000-mile
route network, the airline carried 90 million persons in 1974, about 20% of the
world total (see the map and Table 1). The airline's vast supply of equipment
and personnel is geared primarily to domestic operations, which account for 95%
of passengers carried. Aeroflot's international services extend over a broad but thinly
served network, concentrated in Europe but stretching from the Western
Hemisphere to the Far East.
2. To improve the airline's image, Soviet aviation policy shifted in the 1970s
from the expansion of routes to an upgrading of services. In the 1960s, new routes
extending beyond existing European services to the Middle East, Africa, and South
Asia had been the focus of attention. Most were established for political reasons
and remain uneconomic to this day. As Aeroflot filled out its network around
the world, the Soviets began to stress fleet modernization, improved quality of
passenger services, and operational safety.
3. The improvements in Aeroflot operations have been impressive, enhancing
the airline's international image. Despite these gains, Aeroflot does not pose a
commercial threat to major international airlines in the West. Its international
services do not offer the frequency of flights or the route alternatives necessary
to garner a significant portion of the highly competitive international travel market.
The Soviets appear content to have Aeroflot provide limited service on extensive
international routes to maintain political and economic ties and to augment Soviet
military airlift capability.
4. Civil aviation in the USSR celebrated its fiftieth anniversary in 1973.
From an amalgamation of small regional carriers operating primarily in European
Russia, Aeroflot was established as the Soviet national airline in 1932. At the
outbreak of World War II, Aeroflot's network extended some 100,000 miles --
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcomed. They may
be directed to of the Office of Economic Research, Code 143,
Extension 5741. 25X1 A
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Table 1
Soviet Bilateral Air Agreements and Inaugural Date of Aeroflot Service:
Non-Communist Countries, Cuba, and Yugoslavia
Summer 1975
Country
Agreement
Service
Country
Agreement
Service
Afghanistan
1956
1957
Mali
1962
1962
Algeria
1964
1964
Mauritania
1974
....
Austria
1955
1968
Mauritius
1973
Bangladesh
1973
1973
Morocco
1962
1962
Belgium
1958
1958
Netherlands
1958
1958
Burma
1961
1959
Nigeria
1967
1969
Burundi
1973
....
Norway
1956
1969
Canada
1966
1966
Pakistan
1963
1963
Central African
Peru
1973
1974
Republic
1965
1969
Portugal
1974
1975
Chad
1974
1974
Rwanda
1973
Congo
1964
1969
Senegal
1965
1968
Cuba
1962
1962
Singapore
1969
1970
Denmark
1956
1967
Somali Republic
1963
1964
Egypt
1958
1959
South Yemen
1969
1969
Equitorial Guinea
1973
1974
Sri Lanka
1964
1964
Finland
1955
1955
Sudan
1962
1962
France
1958
1958
Sweden
1956
1967
Greece
1973
1973
Switzerland
1966
1967
Guinea
1962
1962
Syria
1962
1963
India
1958
1958
Tanzania
1965
1967
Indonesia
1961
1961
Thailand
1971
1971
Iran
1964
1964
Tunisia
1964
1964
Iraq
1962
1964
Turkey
1961
1968
Italy
1965
1965
Uganda
1965
1969
Japan
1966
1966
United Kingdom
1957
1958
Jordan
1970
1970
United States
1966
1968
Kenya
1965
1970
West Germany
1971
1972
Laos
1970
1970
Yemen
1967
1967
Lebanon
1966
1966
Yugoslavia
1955
1957
Libya
1963
1970
Zaire
1974
....
Luxembourg
1975
....
Malaysia
1969
1970
almost exclusively domestic - and carried 350,000 passengers annually. Following
the war, the Soviets began the slow process of reestablishing former services and
adding new routes.
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5. By the early 1950s, prewar services were largely restored, and the Soviets
started to develop an international route network. With Moscow as the hub, flights
were initiated to Eastern Europe and then to most West European capitals. Except
for service to the Iberian peninsula, West Germany, and Greece, Aeroflot's European
routes were complete by the end of the decade.
6. Building on its European services, the USSR turned its attention in the
1960s to establishing service to the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. Toward
the end of the decade, trans-Atlantic operations were inaugurated to Canada and
the United States. By 1970, Aeroflot operated some 120 international services
weekly - 58 weekly flights to 42 non-Communist countries and 62 flights per
week to 10 communist countries. Aircraft used in these international services were
outdated, delays were commonplace, and fatal accidents occurred at a rate above
comparable operations in the West. Criticism of the airline's operations became
so widespread that it began to surface in Soviet literature.
7. To counter growing criticism of Aeroflot's aging inventory of civil aircraft,
the USSR began a major modernization program in the early 1970s. Deliveries
have accelerated in each of the past five years, with Aeroflot's current jet inventory
approaching 1,000, of which approximately 450 have been added since 1971 (see
Tables 2 and 3). The YAK-40, with a short field capability, constitutes more than
half of the jet inventory, which also includes increased numbers of the improved
medium-range TU-134As, the medium- to long-range TU-154s, and the long-range
IL-62Ms, the flagship of the Aeroflot fleet.
8. Despite the addition of newer jets, the Soviets continue to maintain a
fleet of more than 1,400 turboprop aircraft, about half of which are the short-range,
50-passenger AN-24s. Similarly, multi-engine piston aircraft still account for
between 850 and 950 units. Except for use of the AN-24s in domestic service,
the turboprop and piston aircraft are not often assigned to regularly scheduled
service. They are, however, pressed into charter service during the summer tourist
season.
9. Along with the planned addition of about 150 currently produced aircraft
a year to Aeroflot's inventory, several new designs are scheduled to be introduced
during the next few years. These include:
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Aeroflot Inventory of High-Performance Aircraft'
NATO
Type and Model Destination
1960
1965
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Total
365
782
1,668
1,774
1,966
2,147
2,411
Jet
191
227
430
530
658
784
977
TU-104 (A and B)
Camel
190
150
155
146
143
141
140
TU-124
Cookpot
1
77
77
75
74
72
70
TU-134 (Standard and A)
Crusty
....
50
62
97
125
145
TU-154
Careless
....
....
....
3
19
37
52
IL-62/M
Classic
....
....
28
44
45
47
58
YAK-40 (Standard and B)
Codling
....
....
120
200
280
360
510
11 ,76
Candid
....
....
....
....
2
2
Turboprop
174
555
1,238
1,244
1,308
1,363
1,434
AN40
Cat
68
84
86
85
83
81
79
AN-12
Cub
3
52
150
153
158
161
165
AN-24
Coke
....
91
591
615
652
690
731
IL-18
Coot
93
300
380
362
360
357
356
TU-114
Cleat
10
28
31
29
27
24
24
AN-26
Clank
....
....
....
....
28
50
79
1. In addition to the high-performance aircraft in Aeroflot's current inventory, the fleet includes from 850 to
950 multi-engine piston aircraft. For the most part, propeller-driven aircraft are used in training operations and
during peak traffic periods during summer schedules.
The Supersonic TU-144 Soviet aviation officials have indicated that the
TU-144 may begin limited domestic scheduled service by the end of 1975.
Historically, the Soviets have been overly optimistic about inaugural
flights.
The 1L-76 Despite initial Soviet claims that this longer range cargo
transport was for civil use, most of the production thus far has gone
to the military. Aeroflot has acquired a few of the aircraft, and they
are probably in service on a few domestic cargo routes.
The YAK 42 Basically an enlarged version of the highly successful
YAK-40, the 100-120 passenger YAK-42 is slated to replace the YAK-40
on routes where growth in traffic demand is expected to be rapid. The
YAK-42, which first flew in early March, is currently in flight testing.
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The IL-86 Airbus Despite many delays, Soviet officials intend to move
forward with production of the IL-86 -- the USSR's wide-bodied aircraft.
Although its current estimated range of 1,500-2,000 miles is less than
half that of Western models, the aircraft would be well suited for many
of Aeroflot's high-density domestic routes and international services to
Europe. Under the most optimistic projections, the IL-86 is unlikely to
begin service before 1979.
Service Improvements
J
10. The modernization program has allowed Aeroflot to upgrade operations
by increasing the frequency of flights, improving adherence to schedules, and
providing more comfortable travel. New jets have been added to almost all of
Aeroflot's international services (see Tables 4 and 5) and to more than half the
domestic routes. For the most part, the only international flights using older models
are those where airfields place constraints on the type of aircraft serving the route.
11. The most dramatic changes in service in recent years have occurred on
Aeroflot's domestic operations. These services, which link all the major Soviet cities,
have traditionally been the last to receive new equipment. During the past three
years, however, newer aircraft have been added to major domestic routes in
increasing numbers, providing far more frequent flights and expansion of new
routes.
12. Much of the improvement in domestic operations stems from the
introduction of the YAK-40. The 30-passenger trijet, which is capable of operating
from unimproved airfields, is rapidly replacing the aging AN-24. In the past three
years, it has made new services possible to more than 200 rural locations in Eastern
Russia and Siberia. For medium-range and longer flights, the TU-134A. TU-154,
and IL-62M have replaced about half of the 356 IL-18 turboprop aircraft in
Aeroflot's inventory.
13. Aeroflot's international service also has been upgraded and expanded with
newer aircraft and some additional flights. Of the more than 260 weekly
international flights most are now served byTU-134As,TU-154s, and IL-62Ms, many
of which were put into service since 1972. Outdated TU-104s and TU-124s, and
in some cases IL-18s, had previously been used on many of these routes.
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Aeroflot Schedule of International Flights to Communist Countries
Summer 1975
Flight Number
Flights
per Week
Type of Aircraft
Moscow-Warsaw
101
Daily
TU-154(4)/TU-134(3)
Moscow-East Berlin
111
Daily
TU-154
Moscow-East Berlin
113
Daily
TU-154
Moscow-East Berlin
115
Daily
TU-134/TU-154
Moscow-Dresden
119
Daily
TU-134
Moscow-Leipzig
121
4
TU-134
Moscow-Budapest
131/133
Daily
TU-134(2)/TU-154(5)
Moscow-Prague
141
Daily
TU-154
Moscow-Prague
143
Daily
TU-134
Moscow-Bratislava
145
1
TU-134
Moscow-Bucharest
151
Daily
TU-134(2)/TU-154(1)
Moscow-Kiev-Bucharest
153
1
TU-134
Moscow-Sofia
171
6
TU-154
Moscow-Varna
175
Daily
TU-154
Moscow-Burgas
177
6
TU-154
Moscow-Sofia
295
TU-154
Moscow-Budapest
409
IL-62
Moscow-Tehran-Bombay-Rangoon-
541
IL-18
Vientiane-Hanoi
Moscow-Omsk-Irkutsk-Ulan Bator
563
TU-154
Moscow-Omsk-Irkutsk-Pyongyang
567
TU-154
Moscow-Peking
571
IL-62
Leningrad-Vilnius (1)-Warsaw
601/03/05
TU-134
Leningrad-East Berlin
609
IL-18
Leningrad-Budapest
615
TU-134
Leningrad-Warsaw-Budapest
617
TU-104(1)/TU-134(1)
Leningrad-Prague
621
TU-104
Leningrad-Burgas
627
TU-104
Leningrad-Sofia
629
TU-104
Kiev-Warsaw
661
TU-134
Kiev-Budapest
671
IL-18
Kiev-Bratislava
677
2
TU-134
Kiev-Sofia
685
2
TU-104
Kiev-Burgas
684
2
TU-104
Minsk-East Berlin
691
8
TU-134
Khabarovsk-Pyongyang
697
1
TU-154
a
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Aeroflot Schedule of International Flights to Non-Communist Countries,
Cuba, and Yugoslavia
Summer 1975
Flight Number
Flights
per Week
Type of Aircraft
Moscow-Belgrade
161
Daily
TU-134(2)/TU-154(5)
Moscow-Zagreb
165
1
TU-154
Moscow-Helsinki
203
4
TU-134
Moscow-Stockholm-Oslo
211
2
TU-134
Moscow-Stockholm-Copenhagen
217
1
IL-62
Moscow-Amsterdam
227/29
TU-154(1)/IL-62(1)
Moscow-Brussels
231
TU-154
Moscow-London
241/43
IL-62
Moscow-Paris
251/53
IL-62
Moscow-Frankfurt
255/59
TU-154(3)/IL-62(1)
Moscow-Vienna
261
TU-134(3)/TU-154(2)
Moscow-Zurich
265
TU-154
Moscow-Vienna-Zurich
267
TU-154
Moscow-Kiev-Zurich
269
TU-154
Moscow-Geneva
271
TU-154
Moscow-Rome
281/83
IL-62
Moscow-Milan
285
TU-154
Moscow-Milan-Marseilles
287
TU-154
Moscow-Sofia-Athens
295
TU-154
Moscow-Kiev(1)-Paris-Montreal
301
IL-62
Moscow-London-New York
311
IL-62
Moscow-Paris-New York
313
IL-62
Moscow-Paris-Washington
317
IL-62
Moscow-Frankfurt-Lisbon-Santa
Maria'-Havana
331
IL-62
Moscow-Rabat-Havana
333
IL-62
Moscow-Frankfurt-Lisbon-Santa
Maria' -Havana-Lima
335
IL-62
Moscow-Budapest-Algiers
407/409
IL-62
Moscow-Budapest' -Algiers-
Dakar-Conakry
411
IL-62
Moscow-Tunis-Tripoli-Bamako
415
IL-18
Moscow-Budapest-Tripoli-
Ndj amena-Malabo
417
IL-18
Moscow-Vienna-Tripoli-Lagos
421
IL-18
Moscow-Beirut-Cairo-
Khartoum-Bangui-Brazzaville
9
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Aeroflot Schedule of International Flights to Non-Communist Countries,
Cuba, and Yugoslavia
Summer 1975
(Continued)
Routes
Flight Number
Flights
per Week
Type of Aircraft
Moscow-Beirut-Khartoum- Bangui-
Brazzaville
433
1
TU-154
Moscow-Cairo
441
1
TU-154
Moscow-Odessa-Cairo-Khartoum-
Entebbe-Kampala-Nairobi-Dar
es Salaam
445
1
TU-154
Moscow-Cairo-San'a-Aden-
Mogadiscio
451
1
TU-154
Moscow-Cairo-Aden-
Mogadiscio
453
1
TU-154
Moscow-Istanbul
501
1
TU-134
Moscow-Ankara-Istanbul
503
1
TU-134
Moscow-Beirut-Amman
505
1
TU-154
Moscow-Nicosia-Damascus
507
1
TU-154
Moscow-Yerevan-Beirut
509
1
TU-154
Yerevan-Beirut
511
1
TU-134
Moscow-Baghdad
513
1
TU-154
Moscow-Tehran
515
1
TU-154
Moscow-Nicosia
519
1
TU-154
Moscow-Damascus
517
1
TU-134
Moscow-Tashkent-Kabul
531
2
IL-18
Moscow-New Delhi
535
1
IL-62
Moscow-Tehran-Bombay-Rangoon-
Vientiane-Hanoi
541
2
IL-18
Moscow-Tehran-Karachi-
Colombo
543
1
IL-62
Moscow-Tehran-Bombay-Rangoon-
Jakarta
547
1
IL-18
Moscow-Baghdad/Bombay-Dacca
549
2
TU-154
Copenhagen-Moscow-New Delhi-
Bangkok-Singapore
551
1
IL-62
Copenhagen-Moscow-Bangkok-
Singapore-Jakarta
553
1
IL-62
Moscow-Kuwait' -Colombo
545
1
IL-62
Moscow-Karachi-Kuala Lumpur
555
1
IL-62
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Aeroflot Schedule of International Flights to Non-Communist Countries,
Cuba, and Yugoslavia
Summer 1975
(Continued)
Routes
Flight Number
Flights
per Week
Type of Aircraft
Moscow-New Delhi-Kuala
Lumpur-Singapore
557
1
IL-62
Paris-Moscow-Tokyo
575
2
IL-62
Frankfurt-Moscow-Tokyo
577
1
IL-62
Copenhagen-Moscow-Tokyo
579
1
IL-62
London-Moscow-Tokyo
581
2
IL-62
Rome-Moscow-Tokyo
583
1
IL-62
Amsterdam-Moscow-Tokyo
585
I
IL-62
Leningrad-Belgrade
625
1
TU-134
Leningrad-Helsinki
Leningrad-Stockholm-
Amsterdam
633
1
TU-134
Leningrad-Stockholm-Oslo
635
1
TU-134
Leningrad-Copenhagen-London
637
1
TU-104
Leningrad-Helsinki
639
4
TU-134(3)/IL-18(1)
Leningrad-Paris
641
1
TU-104
Moscow-Leningrad-Paris
643
2
IL-62
Leningrad-Moscow-Geneva
645
1
TU-134
Leningrad-Hamburg
653
1
TU-134
Leningrad-Zurich
657
1
TU-134
Kiev-Vienna
681
2
TU-134
Khabarovsk-Niigata
695
1
TU-1 54
14. While new aircraft are being added to the inventory, the Soviets have
tried to improve the airline's notoriously poor customer service. In 1973 the airline
established an "Air Service Agency" under the Ministry of Civil Aviation to facilitate
more efficient use of the civil fleet inventory and improve customer services such
as ticketing, transfers, and scheduling. The recent purchase of an IBM reservation
system for the Moscow area underscores the continuing priority of the program.
According to most Western travelers, however, the Soviets have a long way to
go to bring operations up to Western standards.
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Enhanced Airlift Potential
15. The accelerated rate of delivery of modern aircraft during the past five
years has enhanced Aeroflot's capacity to augment the USSR's military airlift
potential. If 100% of the fleet were used and passenger and cargo aircraft were
employed in their respective configurations, Aeroflot could airlift more than
150,000 passengers and 2,400 tons of cargo at any one time. In an actual airlift
operation, as many as one-fourth of Aeroflot's resources could be used without
seriously hampering scheduled domestic and international operations.
Safety
16. Soviet complacency concerning civil aviation safety ended abruptly in
late 1973 following a year-long series of accidents. During this period, at least
10 Aeroflot aircraft in scheduled service crashed, killing at least 500 persons.
Although poor-quality on-board avionics and outdated air traffic control systems
increased the probability of accidents, the primary causes of at least seven crashes
were either pilot error, inclement weather, or a combination of both. In any event,
the USSR launched a vigorous program to improve safety by:
establishing an Aviation Safety Committee within the Ministry of Civil
Aviation to investigate safety procedures and probable causes of accidents;
upgrading operational testing of new civil aircraft and providing for more
stringent preflight crew checks; and
studying Western air traffic control procedures and equipmentfor possible
application in the USSR.
17. Soviet actions have improved safety and continue to receive high priority.
The original safety committee was reorganized in June 1975 and renamed the Civil
Aviation Flight Safety Commission. The new commission has broader enforcement
powers and includes representatives from the Ministries of Aviation Industry, Radio
Industry, Defense, and Communication Equipment. During the past 18 months,
the frequency of accidents has dropped well below past periods. Only one fatal
crash is known to have occurred thus far in 1975 - a YAK-40 on a domestic
flight went down near Batumi in mid-July killing 28 persons, including 4 crew
members.
12
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Negotiations and New Services
18. Since the early 1970s the Soviets have focused on Aeroflot's network
in Sub-Saharan Africa and on laying the groundwork for expanded operations to
Latin America. In Africa, air agreements have been concluded with Burundi, Chad,
Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Mauritius, Rwanda, and Zaire. Last December,
scheduled Aeroflot flights began in Ndjamena in Chad and Malabo in Equitorial
Guinea. Scheduled flights to the other five countries are likely to begin this year,
virtually completing Aeroflot's network in Africa.
19. The Soviets are accelerating the pace of negotiations with several Latin
American countries in an effort to fill the last major gap in Aeroflot's international
network. Only Cuba and Peru are served currently. The Cuban service began more
than a decade ago. Service to Peru was initiated as a technical stop en route to
Santiago, Chile, in November 1972. Santiago service ended with the fall of the
Allende government in September 1973. Soon after the USSR formalized its earlier
accord with Peru and set up weekly service via Havana.
20. Aviation agreements are currently being discussed with Argentina,
Ecuador, Mexico, and Venezuela, with more muted efforts under way in Brazil,
Colombia, and Panama. The principal push is aimed at Mexico. Panama and
Venezuela, where talks have been under way for more than a year, are more likely
to reach agreement with the USSR.
21. Other Aeroflot services inaugurated within the past 5 years include access
to Thailand (1971), West Germany (1972), Bangladesh and Greece (1973), and,
most recently, to Portugal in March 1975. Most of these new services were
incorporated as intermediate points on existing Aeroflot schedules.
22. Soviet efforts to modernize Aeroflot's aircraft inventory and to improve
operations will continue over the next several years. Aeroflot's international route
structure will expand to provide broad coverage of Latin America within the next
2 to 5 years. Introduction of new aircraft coupled with purchases of advanced
avionics and improved air traffic control equipment will improve Aeroflot's safety
record and allow for expansion of existing services. These changes should enhance
Aeroflot's international prestige and provide the Soviet Union with one of the
world's most varied fleets of civil aircraft.
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23. Aeroflot attempts to bring its operations closer to Western standards will
not overcome its relatively poor image, operational inefficiencies, and lack of
passenger amenities. It is not expected to be a serious competitor in the
international air transport market. Although Aeroflot might introduce an aggressive
fare reduction campaign - especially in today's depressed aviation market - most
foreign governments could counter by restricting Aeroflot landings and reducing
fares on their national airlines.
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Secret
Secret
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