THE WORLD SUGAR MARKET: RECENT TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS

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• Publication Date: August 1, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Lonei?aential
The World Sugar Market:
Recent Trends and Short-Term Prospects
Confidential
ER RP 73.14
August 1973
Copy No-. 0 d
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THE WORLD SUGAR MARKET: RECENT TRENDS
AND SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS
Summary
The world sugar market continued to tighten
during 1972-73. Although high prices helped to
slow the growth of demand, sluggish output gains
kept production below consumption for the third
consecutive year, and world stocks dropped to
abnormally low levels. Production has been re-
tarded by drought damage to the crops in Cuba, the
USSR, India, and several other Asian countries.
In the rest of the world, however, production
generally increased at an accelerated pace.
Setbacks to production markedly reduced sugar
supplies in the Communist area's preferential mar-
ket, supplied by domestic producers and by Cuba,
and in Asia. A consequent sharp curtailment of
Communist sales of Cuban sugar on the free market,
which normally account for 40% of the free market
total, also disrupted supplies in the free market,
where about one-half of the sugar moving in inter-
national trade is sold. Free market strains were
intensified by the switch of the USSR and the
People's Republic of China from large sellers to
large buyers and by greater Asian purchases. Out-
put gains and stock drawdowns in the rest of the
world, however, combined to more than offset the
loss of Communist area supplies in the free market
and to maintain ample supplies in the US and UK
preferential markets.
Free market strains have exerted strong pressures
on sugar prices. After averaging 4.5 cents per
pound in 1971, the free market price rose to an
average of 7.7 cents in 1972, and has averaged
about 9.5 cents so far this year. High free market
prices have put some pressure on US and Communist
area preferential prices. To assure the continuing
adequacy of supplies, to provide equitable treatment
for suppliers, and for other reasons, the US pref-
erential price rose this year to a record 9.5 cents
per pound, while the average price the Communist
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publica-
tion tion are welcomed. They may be directed to
of the office of Economic Research, Code
143, Extension 6653.
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countries pay for Cuban sugar was increased to 10.5
cents. The UK preferential price was not visibly
affected, however.
Although the world supply situation will remain
tight over the next couple of years, accelerated
output gains in a few exporting countries will help
to ease pressure a little in the world market.
Supplies in the US preferential market probably will
remain ample, and increased Cuban and Soviet output
should substantially improve supplies in the Com-
munist area market. Free market strains are likely
to ease and prices to edge downward slightly, thus
relieving some of the pressure on the US preferential
price. The free market will benefit from a termina-
tion of Soviet and possibly Chinese purchases and
a substantial recovery of sales by Cuba and probably
the other Communist countries. Output growth in
many exporting countries may slow a little, however,
partly because of uncertainties over new sales quotas
when the 1968 International Sugar Agreement (ISA)
is renegotiated this year and over the scheduled
1 January 1975 dissolution of the UK preferential
market. This slowdown, together with continuing
strong demand by Asian and African countries, seems
likely to help keep the free market price well above
the pre-1972 level.
Discussion
Background
1. After six years of abundant supplies and
low prices, the world sugar market tightened in the
1971 crop year,* when drought and other problems cut
Cuban production about 30% below the record 1970
crop. Cuba normally is the source of 40% of the
supplies reaching the world free market, where about
one-half of the sugar moving in international trade
is marketed. Although the Cuban decline was partly
offset by output gains in Latin America, world pro-
duction fell about 2%, slipping below consumption,
and world stocks dropped about 10% to 19 million
metric tons. The free market price edged upward
during 1971 from the 3.8 cents per pound average of
1970.
* Sugar crop years referred to in this publication
end 31 August of the year indicated.
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At the close of the year, it soared to 7.5 cents
when the USSR, which normally reexports about one
million tons of Cuban sugar annually, bought
heavily in the free market for 1972 delivery.*
Market Trends in 1972-73
Supply
2. World sugar supplies have registered only
limited improvement since 1971. Drought in Asia
and the Communist countries held the 1972-73 average
gain well below the 4% annual average of the last
two decades. World productiondstayed about the
same in 1972 and probably will rise to about 76 million
tons in the 1973 crop year -- only 5% above the 1970
peak (see Table 1).
3. The Communist countries were hardest hit
by bad weather. Total output in the Communist pref-
erential sugar market area** dropped by 10% in 1972
and is expected to recover only partly this year.
Output in the USSR and Eastern Europe, which has
slipped since 1969 mainly because of reduced Soviet
yields, dropped sharply in 1972 because of the
severe drought in the USSR. Slightly expanded
plantings and better weather in the area will boost
1973 production to a little above that of 1971.
Output in the People's Republic of China (PRC), how-
ever, has maintained a slow but steady growth during
the two-year period.
4. The main production drop in the Communist
area resulted from drought damage to the Cuban crop,
which slumped in 1972 to 4.4 million tons, the
smallest since 1963. Even with the end of the
drought, the 1973 Cuban harvest (completed on 13
June) reached only about 5.2 million tons, nearly
12% below that of 1971. Cuba consequently has
sharply cut both direct free market sales and de-
liveries to other Communist countries, which normally
* For details on market developments in late 1971
and early 1972, see ER IM 72-7, Soviet Sugar Pur-
chases and the World Market Situation, January 1972,
CONFIDENTIAL.
** The USSR, the East European Communist countries,
and the People's Republic of China, which are supplied
by domestic producers and by Cuba.
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World Sugar Production l
1969
1970
1971
,
1972
19732
Total
3
67.4
72.3
71.1
71.3
75.9
Communist area
Of which:
20.1
22.8
20.3
18.2
20.1
USSR
9.9
8.7
9.0
8.0
8.6
Cuba
4.5
8.5
5.9
4.4
5.2
Asia
Of which:
9.2
10.8
10.6
9.5
11.2
India
4.0
4.7
4.2
3.4
4.3
Philippine Islands
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.3
Latin America
Of which:
13.1
13.5
15.2
15.6
16.9
Brazil
4.1
4.3
5.4
5.6
6.2
Western Europe
Of which:
11.3
12.0
11.6
13.6
12.6
European Community
8.6
9.2
8.9
10.4
9.5
Africa
Of which:
4.5
4.9
4.7
5.5
5.8
Union of South Africa
1.5
1.7
1.4
2.0
2.0
North America
5.9
5:7
5.7
5.7
6.1
Oceania
Of which:
3.3
2.6
3.0
3.2
3.2
Australia
2.8
2.3
2.6
2.9
2.9
1. Crop years ending 31 August of the year indicated. Because the crop years vary among countries,
in some cases substantially, the entire output of each country is credited to the September-August
year in which harvesting began.
2. Estimated.
3. Cuba, the USSR, the East European Communist countries, and the People's Republic of China.
The small Asian Communist countries are included under "Asia."
refine about one-half of the sugar they buy from
Cuba for resale on the free market. The declines
in Cuban deliveries, added to Soviet production
shortfalls, reduced Communist area sugar sales in
the free market by more than 50% in 1972, and there
has been little recovery in 1973. The USSR and
the PRC not only suspended free market sales in
both years but became large-scale buyers.
5. The production setback in Asia had little
impact on sugar supplies on the world market because
Million Metric Tons
Raw Basis
4
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the countries most affected by drought normally are
only small exporters. Asia still is a net importing
region, although acreage and output have increased
rapidly in recent years. Asian production dropped
10% in 1972 because of drought damage to the Indian
crop -- and to a lesser extent to the Pakistani
and Philippine crops -- but has fully recovered
this year.
6. In the rest of the world, sugar production
rose considerably in the two-year period. Annual
increases substantially exceeded the average of the
1960s. Although part of the expansion reflected
efforts by some countries to boost domestic supplies,
about one-half resulted from increased operations
undertaken in a few exporting countries largely to
take advantage of high free market prices. Pro-
duction in Latin America accelerated sharply as
Brazil, and to a lesser extent Argentina and Mexico,
slightly increased acreage and expanded harvesting.
A rapid rise in African output was primarily the
result of increased plantings and improved yields
in the Union of South Africa. In Western Europe,
production jumped substantially in 1972 as plant-
tings and yields were increased in France, West
Germany, and Spain, but bad weather this year has
limited the two-year growth. Part of the West
European gain reflects efforts by producers in the
European Community (EC) to move toward self-suf-
ficiency in the enlarged Community. North American
output rose significantly, largely because of
greater acreage allotments and increased yields in
the United States.
7. Production gains have sufficed to maintain
ample sugar supplies in the US and UK preferential
markets, which account for about one-third of the
sugar moving in international trade.* Together with
stock drawdowns, these gains also have permitted
free market sales to expand enough to more than off-
set the decline in Communist area shipments. Brazil,
the Union of South Africa, and Australia -- which
benefited from the automatic suspension of ISA
sales quotas when the free market price exceeded
* The US market is supplied mainly by US, Latin
American, and Philippine producers and the UK mar-
ket mainly by UK, Australian, and Caribbean Common-
wealth producers.
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5.25 cents per pound -- and the EC
accounted for most, of the sales gain cine1972, ascis
shown on a calendar year basis in the following
tabulation:
Million Metric Tons Raw Basis
1970
1971
1972
Total free market
sales
8.9
9
5
Communist area
4
2
.
11.1
Of which:
.
3.9
2.1
Cuba
USSR
2.1
1
1
2.2
1.8
Brazil
.
1.1
Negl.
Australia
1
0.6
2.0
Union of South
.1
1.2
1.7
Africa
0
6
European Communit
.
0.7
1.1
y
Other exporting
countries
0.7
1.8
0.8
2.3
1.4
2.8
8. The annual increase in world sugar demand,
which has averaged about 4% in the last couple of
decades, slipped to an average annual rate of 2.0%
during 1972-73 because of sharply slackened growth
in Asia and the Communist area, which together
account for about 40% of total demand. The slow-
downs in these areas reflect mainly the countries'
inability or unwillingness to compensate fully
for production shortfalls through expanded purchases
in the free market. Although the USSR and China
bought a total of about one million tons each year
and Asian purchases also increased in 1972, the
growth of consumption in the communist area and in
Asia slowed (see Table 2). Because of the thinness
of the free market, the Communist and Asian pur-
chases exerted greatly increased pressure on free
market supplies.
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Table 2
World Sugar Consumption)
Million Metric Tons, Raw Basis
1971
1972
19732
Total
73.6
74.4
76.6
Communist area
17.1
16.9
17.5
Asia
14.8
14.9
14.8
Western Europe
14.8
14.7
15.3
8
North America
11.6
11.7
11.
3
Latin America
9.9
10.6
11.
9
Africa
4.4
4.6
4.
Oceania
1.0
1.0
1.0
1. Crop years.
2. Estimated.
9. Elsewhere, growth of sugar demand generally
matched or exceeded that of the 1960s. Rising in-
comes and rapid population growth led to a continued
rapid rise in demand in Latin America and Africa.
In North America, Western Europe, and Oceania, where
per capita consumption has tended to level off in
recent years, demand increased in 1972-73 at about
the same rates as population. This demand growth
has not significantly augmented pressures in the
free market, because these areas, except for Africa
and the smaller European countries, do not depend
on the free market for substantial shares of their
sugar supplies.
Stocks and Prices
10. Despite slackened growth, world consumption
remained well above production during 1972-73. On
the basis of production data adjusted for each
country to the crop year ending 31 August, the two-
year gap probably will total about 3.0 million tons,
cutting world stocks to 16.0 million tons by 31
August 1973 -- 16% below the level of August 1971
(see Table 3). The expected decline of world stocks
to a level equal to about 21% of consumption (see
Figure 1) will be almost as low as that which trig-
gered the 1963 sugar boom. Although stocks slipped
in most world regions, the main reductions occurred
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Estimated World Sugar Stocks as of
31 August
Million Metric Tons, Raw Basis
1971
1972 19731
Adjusted production2
Consumption
71.2
73
72.7 75.3
Stocks
.6
74:4 76.6
Co
19.0
17.3 16
0
mmunist area
3.4
.
2
Asia
.1 2.3
Lati
A
4.4
3.0 3
2
n
merica
4.5
.
4
Western Europe
2
9
.5 3.6
North America
.
3. 3.4
Africa
1.9
1
1.8 8
1.8
Oceania
.2
1.1
1 3
0.7
0.9 0.6
I. Estimated.
2. Production for all countries in the 12-month period ending 31 August of the year
indicated.
in the Communist areas, Asia, and Latin America.
The decline in Latin American stocks reflects
mainly the sharp upswing in Brazilian sales on the
free market.
11. Strains on free market supplies -- as re-
flected in the dislocation of supply patterns and
stock drawdowns -- have exerted growing pressure on
prices. With the decline in net sales by the Com-
munist countries, free market prices were pushed
up to an average of 7.7 cents per pound in 1972
compared with 4.5 cents the year before (see Figure
2). The spot price jumped to 9.6 cents at the
year's end, when Soviet and Chinese purchase con-
tracts for 1973 set off a new speculative flurry.
After hovering at about 9 cents in the first few
months of 1973, the spot price climbed to 10.8 cents
near the end of May as new Chinese purchases for
1973 delivery were announced and rumors circulated --
thus far unsubstantiated -- of both Soviet and
Chinese purchase contracts for 1974-75 delivery.
8
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FREE MARKET PRICES"
AND WORLD STOCK/CONSUMPTION RATIO**
STOCK/CONSUMPTION RATIO
0 66 67 68 69 70 71
1963 64 65
As of 31 August.
*Average for the calendar year
518495 8-73
0
72 73
Since then the price has fluctuated between 9 cents
and 10.25 cents as rumors have ebbed and flowed.*
12. High free market prices so far have not
caused significant diversion of sugar from the
principal world preferential markets. They have
however, to increases in some pref-
contributed,
erential prices that are almost as large as those
of the 1963 sugar boom. After remaining at about
* Not all free UndersaleArticles are of the onternt
free market price.
national Sugar Agreement, which is intended toCpartly
protect importing countries from temporary price
rises, signatory exporting countries are obligated
to charge a maximum of 6.5 cent Cep per pound (a of
the 1968 US dollar parity) for intsndr ar.
sales to their established trading par.
9
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SUGAR PRICES IN PRINCIPAL WORLD MARKETS
ANNUAL AVERAGE IN US CENTS PER POUND
F.O.B. CARRIBEAN PORTS
12
0
1961 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
-Average prices paid for Cuban sugar.
"Estimated.
tOn 10 August.
COMMUNIST MARKET*
70 71 72 73
it Negotiated prices under Commorwealth Sugar Agreement. These prices include some freight and
insurance. Since 1964, they also include special payments to less developed Commonwealth
Producers. Lower prices in 1968-70 primarily reflect the sterling devaluation in 1967.
516496 6.73
6 cents per pound during most of the 1960s, the
average price paid Cuba by the other Communist
countries jumped to 10.5 cents for 1973 deliveries.
The US preferential price also has risen at an
accelerated rate since 1971 and reached 9.5 cents
this year. Prices in both the United States and
the Communist area have been influenced in varying
degree by the desire to ensure the continuing ade-
quacy of supplies and to provide equitable treat-
ment for suppliers. US prices also have been
affected by rising US inflationary pressures. In-
10
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creases in the UK preferential price have not been
much influenced by free market prices, however.
An increase in 1972 from 5.2 cents to 6.5 cents was
negotiated in 1971, before the major rise in free
market price, and the 1973 rise to about 7 cents re-
flects appreciation of sterling against the dollar.
Short-Term Outlook
13. The world supply situation probably will
remain fairly tight, but market pressures are likely
to ease slightly over the next couple of years. With
good weather, production likely will rise a little
more rapidly than in 1972-73, with total output
reaching about 80 million tons by 1975. Above-
normal free market prices probably will help to
hold demand growth near the relatively slow rate of
the past two years, so that production should about
match consumption by 1975. Nevertheless, stocks
could dip slightly, and the rise in demand probably
will reduce stocks to a level equal to about 19% of
consumption, equal to the 1963 record low.
14. About half the increase in world output
probably will originate in the Communist area be-
cause increased yields in Cuba and slightly expanded
acreage in the remaining countries seem likely to
boost production to about 22 million tons in the
1975 crop year. This will still be a little below
the 1970 record. Cuba, having recently forsworn
major new sugar drives, will not try to equal its
1970 record output. With accelerating efforts
to renew plantings, mechanize harvesting, and im-
prove transport of cane to the mills, however, Cuba
should be able to achieve by 1975 a harvest of about
6 million to 6.5 million tons.
15. Sugar production in the
rest
of the world
probably will gain through 1975,
but
growth likely
will be a little slower than in
the
past two years.
In some countries, strong demand
for
crops that com-
pete with sugar for land will restrict the acreage
that can be devoted to sugar crops. Greatly increas-
ing needs for protein crops in such countries as
India, for example, probably will prevent Asian
sugar output from recovering the rapid growth rates
of the 1960s.
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16. Uncertainty about international marketing
arrangements will tend to restrict output growth
through 1975 in some sugar exporting countries.
Renegotiation this year of ISA free market export
quotas is proving difficult. Although Brazil has
stated that it will sharply boost output regardless
of the outcome, most other sugar exporting countries
will hestitate to undertake expanding production
for export substantially. Moreover, the scheduled
1975 dissolution of the UK preferential sugar mar-
ket has tended to discourage output expansion in
Australia and to some extent in Caribbean Common-
wealth countries, although it could accelerate
production in the enlarged EC as that area strives
for greater self-sufficiency.
17. The increase in demand through 1975 will
originate mainly in the developing countries of
Latin America, Asia, and Africa, where per capita
consumption still is relatively low and population
and incomes both are rising. In some less developed
countries of Asia and Africa that depend on the
free market, high prices may continue to restrain
consumption growth somewhat, however. With improved
supplies, demand growth in the Communist countries
should recover, but it will continue to be slow
because per capita consumption already is high ex-
cept in the PRC. For the same reason, demand also
will continue to grow slowly in We-stern Europe,
North America, and Oceania. Possible outlawing
of saccharin in the United States this year might
raise US demand for sugar slightly, but only
temporarily, because other synthetic sweeteners
would quickly be available.
18. Sugar supplies should be ample in the
preferential markets through 1975, and pressures
probably will ease slightly in the free market.
Increased output in the Communist area will permit
some expansion of Cuban and perhaps East European
free market sales. Moreover, the USSR and possibly
the PRC will terminate free market purchases, al-
though neither country is likely to resume free
market sales at levels anywhere near those of the
late 1960s. Increased availability of Brazilian -
sugar should compensate for any continuing shortage
in Communist supplies and may enable Brazil to re-
place Cuba as the largest supplier. Increased free
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market sales by Australia and perhaps other former
UK suppliers may be expected to offset any diver-
sion of EC sugar from the free market to the
United Kingdom.
19. Although remaining subject to sharp temporary
rises in response to new rumors, free market prices
probably will edge slightly downward during 1974-75
but will remain well above pre-1972 levels. Thus,
present external pressures on the US preferential
market price will be reduced. The UK preferential
price probably will remain essentially unchanged
through 1974. The average paid for Cuban sugar
by the other Communist countries may rise a little,
however, as the rest of the East European countries
adopt the price (12 cents per pound) now paid by
the USSR, China, and Bulgaria.
13
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Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CI RDP79TO1098A000100140001-0
5 O CT x 973
MEMORANDUM FOR: CRS/ADO Release
SUBJECT: Release of ER RP 73.14, The World Sugar
Market: Recent Trends and Short-Term
Prospects, August 1973, Confidential, to
Foreign Governments
1. It is requested that the attached copy of subject report be
forwarded as follows: 25X1 C
#54
2. All OER responsibilities as defined in the DDI memorandum
of 13 August 1952, "Procedures for Dissemination of Finished
Intelligence to Foreign Governments, 11 as applicable to this report
have been fulfilled.
25X1A
Chief, St/P/C/OER
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