CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.

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• Publication Date: June 1, 1965
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L-P S - /Z
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89th Congress 1
1st Session f
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FOR THE U.S.S.R.
MATERIALS PREPARED FOR THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES
Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
46-272 WASHINGTON : 1965
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Oilice
Washington, D.C., 20402 - Price 55 cents
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JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri
HALE BOGGS, Louisiana
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin
MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS, Michigan
THOMAS B. CURTIS, Missouri
WILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey
ROBERT F. ELLSWORTH,IKansas
SENATE
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
J. W. FULBRIGHT, Arkansas
WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin
HERMAN E. TALMADGE, Georgia
JACOB K. JAVITS, New York
JACK MILLER, Iowa
LEN B. JORDAN, Idaho
JAMES W. KNOWLES, Executive Director
JOHN It. STARS, Depuiy Director
MARIAN T. TRACY, Financial Clerk
HAMILTON 1). GEwEHR, Administrative Clerk
ECONOMISTS
WILLIAM H. MOORE NELSON D. MCCLUNG
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To Members of the Joint Economic Committee:
JUNE 23, 1965.
Transmitted herewith for the use of the Joint Economic Committee
and other Members of Congress is a compilation of statistical materials
and interpretative articles entitled "Current Economic Indicators for
the U.S.S.R." These materials will make up a successor volume to
last year's study on the same subject. They are made available to
the members of the Joint Economic Committee as a continuation of
the studies which appeared in December 1962 under the title "Dimen-
sions of Soviet Economic Power."
The committee is grateful to the Government departments and
organizations for their assistance, as well as to the individual scholars
who prepared various sections of this volume, and to the Research
Analysis Corp. for permitting its staff members to help us in the study.
It should be clearly understood that the materials contained herein
do not necessarily represent the views of the committee nor any of
its individual members.
W RIGHT PATMAN, Chairman.
Hon. WRIGHT PATMAN, JUNE 21, 1965.
Chairman, Joint Economic Committee,
Congress of the United States, Washington, D.C.
DEAR MR. CHAIRMAN: Transmitted herewith is a compendium of
statistical data and interpretative comment entitled, "Current Eco-
nomic Indicators for the U.S.S.R."
This volume, which is a successor to the report on the same subject
published in February 1964, reflects the committee's continuing
interest in verifiable facts and scholarly interpretation of current
economic developments in the U.S.S.R. These periodic statistical
reviews, in turn, are intended to supplement the analytical materials
published in the Joint Economic Committee's December 1962 study
entitled, "Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power."
In light of our experience in publishing the 1964 volume, certain
changes have been made in the present study, particularly in regard
to the introduction of more narrative materials to go along with the
statistical data presented in each chapter. In addition, the present
volume includes an introductory essay summarizing the main findings
of the component chapters.
The individual chapters of the present study were prepared for the
committee by a number of professional experts in this field of research
who have given generously of their valuable time and specialized
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IV LETTERS OF TRANSMITTAL
knowledge. The committee is indebted. in particular to the following
individual contAbutors for the praiseworthy job?they have done:
James W. Brackett. Ferdinand F. Pirhalla.
Stanley G. Brown,, Seymour M. Rosen.
Stanley H. Cohn. Timothy Sosnovy.
Norton T. Dodge. Joseph Watstein.
Murray Feshbach.
In this connection, the committee is most grateful to the following
departments of the Government for having made their specialists
available for this project: The Departments of Commerce; Agricul-
ture; Health, Education, and Welfare; the Bureau of the Census;
and the Library of Congress. For the same reason, the committee
also wishes to express its gratitude to the Research Analysis Corp. of
McLean, Va.; and the University of Maryland.
The present study was planned and coordinated by Leon M. Her-
man, senior specialist, Soviet economics, Legislative Reference Service,
Library of Congress, to whom the committee feels particularly in-
debted for the high. standards and patience he has brought to the
present undertaking.
The initial work on behalf of the committee staff was handled by
William H. Moore, senior economist, and the subsequent super-
vision of the completion and editing of the volume was handled by
John It. Stark, deputy director.
JAMES W. KNOWLES,
Executive Director, Joint Economic Committee.
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CONTENTS
Pair
Letters of transmittal---------------------------------------------- IIL
INTRODUCTION. The Soviet economy in 1963-------------------------- 1
A. Slowdown in the rate of economic growth---------------------- 1
1. Gross national product---------------------------------- 1
Comparative per capital dollar value of GNP, 1963 (table) - - 1
2. Investment trends-------------------------------------- 1
3. Agriculture--------------------------------------------- 2
4. Industrial production------------------------------------ 2
Annual rates of growth of civilian industrial output in the
U.S.S.R. (table) ------------------------------------- 3
5. Defense expenditures------------------------------------ 3
6. Consumption levels------------------------------------- 4
Estimated stocks of consumer's durables at end of 1963
(table) ----------------- ------------------ 5
7. Population, employment and labor productivity ------------ 6
8. Foreign trade------------------------------------------- 6
B. The search for higher levels of economic efficiency -------------- 6
1. Discontent of the leadership ------------------------------ 6
2. Prospective economic reforms----------------------------- 8
CHAPTER I. Trends in Soviet Gross National Product---------------- 11
Summary---------------------------------------- ----------- 11
Comparative growth performance-------------------------------- 12
Table I-1. Annual and period growth rates of Soviet GNP---_- 12
Table 1-2. Comparative growth rates of gross national product_ 13
Change in structure of production and the use of resources ---------- 13
Table 1-3. Comparative growth of onsumption and investment - 14
Factors affectin growth retardation ---------------15
Table 1-4. Employment and labor productivity as determinants in
comparative growth of GNP------------------------------ 15
Table I-5. Comparative incremental capital-output ratios------ 16
Comparative size and future trend of GNP----------------------- 18
Table 1-6. Comparative dollar values of gross national product
in 1963 (market prices) ----------------------------------- 18
Table I-7. Comparative projections of GNP------------------ 19
Appendix:
Table 1. Annual origin sector growth rates for Soviet GNP ----- 20
Table 2. Composition of originating sector weights for 1959----- 21
CHAPTER II. Population------------------------------------------- 23
General trends------------------------------------------------ 23
Projected population of school age and "college age"--------------- 24
Projected male population of military age------------------------ 24
Projected population of the "able-bodied age"--------------------- 24
Tables :
II-1. Population of the U.S.S.R., by urban and rural residence,
selected years, 1913-65----------------------------------- 25
11-2. Birth, death, and natural increase rates for the U.S.S.R.,
selected years, 1913-64----------------------------------- 26
11-3. Estimated and projected population of the U.S.S.R. and
the United States, selected years, 1913-85------------------ 26
11-4. Birth and death rates for the U.S.S.R. and the United
States, 1955-63------------------------------------------ 27
II-5. Populations of cities in the U.S.S.R. with 1964 populations of
500,000 inhabitants or more, and of all Republic capitals,
1939, 1959, 1963, and 1964-------------------------------- 27
11-6. Average family size in the U.S.S.R., by nationality and
urban and rural residence, 1959--------------------------- 28
11-7. Estimated and projected population of preschool age in
the U.S.S.R.,1959-85------------------------------------ 28
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Chapter II-Continued
Tables -Continued
lI-8. Ec!,imated and projected population of school age in the Page
U.S.S.R.,1959-85----------------------------------------- 29
11-9. Estimated and projected.popu.lation of college age in the
U.S.S.R.,1959-85------------------------------------------ 29
11-10. Estimated and projected male population of military age in
the U.S.S.R.., 1959-85-------------------------------------- 30
II--11. Estimated and projected population of "able-bodied age"
in the U.S.S..R.,1959-85----------------------------------- 31
11-12. Estimated and projected population of "retirement age"
in the U.S.S..R., 1959-85----------------------------------- 32
11-13. Estimated and projected total population, components of
population change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sex,
1950-85-------------------------------------------------- 32
I1--14. Estimated and projected population of the U.S.S.R., by
5-year age groups and sex, Jan. 1, 1959-85 ------------------- 38
CHAPTER III. Industry-------------------- ------ -------------------- 45
A. Trends in output of industrial production, 1956-63------------- 45
U.S.S.R.: Average annual rates of growth of civilian industrial
output (table)____________ 45
B. Factors in the industrial slowdown -------------------------- .___ 45
Tables:
111-1. U.S.S.R.: Production of selected industrial commodities,
1959, 1963, and 1965 plan --------------------------------- 46
III-2. Production of major chemicals in the U.S.S.R., 1.955 and
1959-63, plan for 1965, and United States, 1963 (unclassified) __ 47
New Soviet chemical program---------------------------- 47
111-3. Production of consumer goods in the U.S.S.R., 1.955 and
1959-63, and in the United States, 1963 -------------------- 48
III-4. Production of selected metals in the U.S.S.R., 1955,
1959--63, and 1965 plan, and in the United States, 1963 ------ 49
111-5. Production of selected fuels in the U.S.S.R., 1955 and
1959--63, and in the United States, 1963____________________ 49
111-6. U.S.S. It.: Indexes of civilian industrial production, :1955
and 1959-6:;--------------------------------------------- 50
111-7. U.S.S. R.: Annual. rates of growth in industrial production,
1959--63__. ----------------------------------------------- 50
CHAPTER IV. Investment------------------------------------------- 51
Tables:
IV-1. U.S.S.R.: Gross fixed investment, by function, 1955 and
1959--63---------------------------------------------------- 52
IV-2. U.S.S.It.: Index of gross fixed investment, by function,
1955 and 19,:59-63---------------------------------------- 52
IV-3. U.S.S.R..: Annual rates of growth of gross fixed investment,
by function, 1959--63-.------------------------------------- 53
IV-4. U.S.S.R.: Productive gross fixed investment, by sector,
1955 and 1959-63------------------------------------------ 53
IV-5. U.S.S.R.: Index of productive gross fixed investment, by
sector, 1955 and 1959--63---------------------------------- 53
IV-6. U.S.S.IL: Annual rates of growth of productive gross fixed
investment, by sector, 1959-63---------------------------- 54
CHAPTER V. Agriculture---------------------------------------------- 55
Agriculture in the United States and U.S.S.R--------------------- 55
Tables:
V--1. Agricultural resources ---------------------------------- 56
V-2. Farm numbers and size, 1963--------------------------- 56
V--3. Crop acreage, 1963------------------------------------ 57
V--4. Yields per acre of major crops, 1963 -------------------- 57
V--5. Crop production, 1963 -------------------------------- 58
V--6. Livestock numbers, 1964______________________________ 58
V-7. Production of livestock commodities, 1963_______________ 59
V--8. Area of major grains, :1955-59 average, 1963------------- 59
V-9. Yields of major grains, 1955-59 average, 1963------------ 60
V-10. Production of major grains, 1955-59 average, 1963 ------- 60
V-11. Soviet Union: Production of five major grains and total
grain, USDA estimates and official Soviet estimates 1958-64-- 61
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Pace
CHAPTER VI. Employment----------------------------------------- 63
Tables :
VI-1. Population, labor force, and employment, U.S.S.R., 1958-
65-.---------------------------------------------------- 65
VI-2. Civilian employment, by socioeconomic category, U.S.S.R.,
selected years, 1940-64----------------------------------- 67
VI-3. Workers and employees, by branch of the national economy,
U.S.S.R., selected years, 1928-64-------------------------- 70
VI-4. Workers and employees, by branch of the national econo-
my, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1928-64 ---------------------- 71
VI-5. Industrial-production personnel and wage workers, by
branch of industry, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940-63 -------- 74
VI-6. Average number of days and hours worked in industry by
wage workers, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1928-63------------- 80
VI-7. Soviet comparisons of physical output per production
worker in selected industries, United States and U.S.S.R.,
selected years, 1939--59----------------------------------- 82
VI-8. Measures of collective farm employment, U.S.S.R.,
selected years, 1937-63----------------------------------- 83
VI-9. Employment in the private agricultural economy, by sub-
sector, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940-64 -------------------- 86
VI-10. Civilian employment in the United States, by major
employment categories, selected years, 1940-64-------------- 87
VI-1:1. U.S.S.R. and U.S. employment, by nonagricultural and
agricultural sectors, selected years, 1940-64----------------- 89
VI-12. Adjustment of U.S.S.R. civilian employment to corre-
spond to U.S. nonagricultural and agricultural sectors, selected
years, 1940-63------------------------------------------ 90
CHAPTER VII. Female employment ---------------------------------- 91
Introduction-------------------------------------------------- 91
Changes in the sex ratio of the Soviet population------------------ 91
High rates of female participation in the labor force________________ 92
Family versus work____________________________________________ 92
Women's share in the labor force________________________________ 93
Rising quality of the female labor force__________________________ 93
Training of women professionals_________________________________ 94
A majority of professionals are women --------------------------- 95
Importance of women scientific workers__________________________ 95
Advancement of women________________________________________ 96
Tables:
VII-1. Males per 100 females in the population of Russia and the
Soviet Union, selected years, 1897-1980 -------------------- 97
VII-2. Population of "working age" in Russia and the Soviet
Union, selected years, 1897-1980-------------------------- 97
VII-3. Percentage of females in the population of the U.S.S.R.
by socioeconomic category and age group, January 15, 1959__ 98
VII-4. Distribution and percentage of women collective farmers
employed primarily in physical labor in agriculture, by occupa-
tion, January 15, 1959___________________________________ 101
VII-5. Number and percentage of women workers and em-
ployees, by branch of the economy, selected years, 1929-62--- 102
VII-6. Percentage of women wage workers by branch of industry,
selected years, 1913-62 ---------------------------------- 104
VII-7. Level of education of the employed population by social
group and sex, in 1959_________________________________ 106
VII-8. Women holding doctoral and candidate degrees in 1950
and 1959-61 -------------------------------------------- 106
VII-9. Women enrolled in secondary specialized educational
institutions (excluding correspondence students), by field, at
the beginning of the academic year________________________ 107
VII-10. Number and percent of women among day and evening
students enrolled in Soviet higher educational institutions, by
field, 1926-37, 1940, 1950, and 1955-61 ------------------- 108
VII-11. Number and percent of female graduate students at end
of calender year, miscellaneous years, 1929-61 -------------- 109
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CHAPTER VII-Continued
Tables-Continued
VII-12a. Women specialists with a secondary specialized educa- Page
tion employed in the economy, by specialty, 1955-57, 1959--63- 110
VII-12b. Distribution of women specialists with secondary
specialized education employed in the economy, by specialty,
1955-57,1959-63 ------------------------------------------- 110
VII-12c. Percentage of women of a:il specialists with secondary
specialized education employed in the economy, by specialty,
.1955-57,1959-63 -------------------------------------------- 110
VII-13a. Women specialists with a higher education employed in
the national economy, by specialty, 1941, 1954-57, 1959-63__ 111
VII-13b. Distribution of women specialists with a higher educa-
tion employed in the economy by specialty, 1941, 1954-57,
:1959-63-------------------------------------------------- 111
VII--13c. Women specialists with a higher education employed
in the national economy, 1941, 1954-57, 1959-63 ------------- 112
VII-14. Number of women scientific workers------------------ 113
VII-15. Women scientific workers having academic titles in
higher educational institutions and research institutions in
1950, 1955, and 1960 ---------------------------------------- 113
VII-16. Women scientific workers in higher educational insti-
tutions in 1950, 1955, and 1960----.------------------------ 114
VII-17. Women scientific workers in scientific research institu-
tions, enterprises, and other organizations, 1950, 1955, and
1960------------------------------------------------- -- 115
VII-18. Percentage of women administrators and teachers in
elementary and secondary schools of the Ministry of Educa-
tion and Ministry of Transportation, 1940-41, :1950-51,
1955-56,1958-64------.------------------------------------- 115
VII-19. Number of women physicians and their percentage of
the total for selected years, 1.913-63----------------------- 116
Figures:
VII-1. U.S.S.R. population and. employment pyramids in 1959-- 99
VII-2. Age distribution of the male and female labor force
aged 15 to 59 in 1959 ---------------------------------------- 100
CHAPTER VIII. Comparisons of consumption ---------------------------- 117
Preface to tables -------------------------------------------------- 119
Tables:
VIII-1. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Total consumption per capita, 1950
and 1955-63-------------------.-------------------------- 119
VIII-2. U.S. and U.S.S.R..: Consumption per capita by major
product and service group, 1950 and 1955-63-------------- 119
VIII-3. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Consumption per capita by product
or service group, 1955---------------------------------------- 120
VIII-4. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Availability of food products for hu-
man consumption by major food group, selected years -------- 121
VIII-5. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Estimated stocks of consumers'
durables at the end of selected years, 1955-63--------------- 121
VIII-6. U.S. and U.S.S.R.: Health services at the end of selected
years, 1950 133------------------------------------------- 122
VIII-7. U.S.S.R. and selected Western European countries:
Consumption per capita by major product and service group,
:1950, 1955, and 1962 ---------------------------------------- 122
CHAPTER IX. Soviet budget -------------------------------------------- 123
Tables :
IX-1. U.S.S.R.: Revenues of the state budget, by budget
category, 1955 and 1959--63, actual receipts----------------- 124
IX-2. U.S.S.R.: Expenditures of the state budget, by budget
category, 1955 and 1959--63, actual outlays----------------- 124
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CHAPTER X. EducationPage
Tables : - - - - - = - - - - - - - - --------- 125
X-1. Enrollment in schools and training programs of various
types at all levels, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1914-15 to 1?63-64_ 126
X-2. Schools of general education of all types number of schools,
enrollment, and number of teachers, J.S.S.R., 1950-51,
1958-64------------------------------------------------- 126
X-3. Primary, 7-year, 8-year, and complete secondary schools,
number of schools, enrollment, and number of teachers,
U.S.S.R., 1952-53, and 1958-59 to 1962-63 ----------- 127, 1963-64
X-4. Higher and secondary specialized educational institutions,
number of schools, and enrollment by type of instruction,
U.S.S.R., 1952-53 and 1958-59 to 1962-63, 1963-64------ -_- 127
X-5. Enrollment in secondary s specialized educational institutions,
by groups of specialities, US.S. R., 1952-53 and 1958-59 to
1962-63, 1963-64---------------------------------------- 127
X-6. Enrollment of
schools by lassrgroupi g, U.S.S.R., r19and 50 5complete 958-64---- 128
X-7. Schools for workers, peasant youth, and adults, U.S.S.R.,
1950-51, 1958-64---------------------------------------- 128
X-8. Nurtseaery schools-number of schools, enrollment, and num-
ber of chers and principals, U.S.S.R., 1927-63-------- -_ 128
X-9. Distribution of elementary 7-year, 8-year, and secondary
school teachers according to educational rank and length of
service in pedagogical work, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950--51,
1963-64----- ------------------------- 129
X-10. Distribution of teachers in classes 5-8 and 9-11, including
directors, directors of studies, and persons in charge of instruc-
tion according to specialties and level of education at the
beginning of the 1963-64 school year, U.S.S.R--------------- 130
X-11. The number of women teachers in elementary, 7-year,
8-year, and secondary schools, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950-51,
1963-64--------------------- 131
X-12. Admissions to secondary specialized educational instruc-
tions by type of instruction, and admissions and graduations
by branch group of educational institutions, U.S.S.R., 1952,
1958-63----------------------------------- 131
X-13. Graduations of specialists from higher and secondary
specialized institutions according to type of instruction,
U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940, 1950, 1958, 1960-63 ---------- 132
X-14. The number of graduations of specialists from higher and
secondary specialized educational institutions, U.S.S.R.,
1918-63------------------------------------------------ 132
X=15. Graduations of specialists from secondary specialized edu-
cational institutions, by groups of specialties; U.S.S.R., selected
X-16. years, 1950, 1958, budget 1960-63
eted 133
and expenditures budg-
for enlightenment, U.S.S.R., 1955 and 1958-63 --------- 134
X-17. Number of higher educational institutions and enrollment,
U.S.S.R., 1914-15 and 1922-23 to 1963-64 ------------------ 135
X-18. Enrollment in higher education, by type of instruction,
U.S.S.R., 1940-63---------------- 135
X-19. Enrollment in higher education, by groups of specialties,
U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950-64-------------------------- 136
X-20. Persons with higher and secondary (complete and in-
complete) education, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1959 and 1964-_ 137
X-21. Persons with higher and secondary education (complete
and incomplete) per 1,000 inhabitants, U.S.S.R., selected
years, 1939, 1959, and 1964______________________--------- 137
X-22. Women students as percent of total enrollment in higher
education, by main areas, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1927-63,
1963-64------------------------------------------------ 137
X-23. Admissions to higher educational institutions, by type of
instruction, U.S.S.R., 1940-41, and 1945-46 to 1962-63,
1963-64----------------------------- ------------------ 138
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Chapter X-Continued
Tables-Continued
X-24. Number and percent of admissions to higher educational Page
institutions by branch group of institutions, U.S.S.R., selected 138
years, 1940 to 1964-------- -------------------------------
X-25. Number and percent of graduations of specialists from
higher educational institutions, by branch group, U.S.S.R., 138
selected years, 1940-63------------------------------------
X-26. Graduations of specialists from higher educational insti-
tutions by groups of specialties, U.S.S.R., selected years, 139
1950--63-----------------------------------------------
X-27. Enrollments of aspirants (graduate students), by type
of instruction, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940--63------------- 140
X-28. Number of graduations of aspirants (graduate students),
by type of instruction, U.S.S.R., selected years, 1940-63:._____ 140
X-29. Enrollment of aspirants (graduate students) by branches
of study, U.S.S.R., 1950, 1960-63 (at end of year) ----------- 141
X-30. The number of scientific workers, U.S.S.R., selected years, 142
1950, 1958, and 1960--63---------------------------------
X-31. The composition of scientific workers according to degrees
and rank (or title) in U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950, 1958, 1960-
63 142
-----------------?---------
X-32. Distribution of scientific workers by branches of specializa-
tion, 142
U.S.S.R., 1963 -
X-33. The composition of women among scientific workers,
U.S.S.R., selected years, 1950, 1958, and 1060-63 ------------- 142
CHAPTER XI. Urban facilities and housing ------------------------------ 143
Tables :
XI-1. Population growth of seven Soviet cities following ap-
proval of resolution to prohibit building of new enterprises- __ 143
X-2. Actual city population as planned for 1975 and as reported 144
for 1963 ---------------------------------------------------
Capital investment in the national economy of the
U.S.S.R. and in the public housing sector, 1918-64 ----------- 144
XI-4. Five-year plart goals for housing construction in the
public sector and actual fulfillment, 1928--63-------------- 145
XI-5. Housing fund in the urban communities of the U.S.S.R. 145
at the end of the year, 1926--63-------------------------------
XI-6. Urban population growth and living space per capita in
the U.S.S.R.,1923-63------------------------------------- 146
XI-7. Per capita living space (square meters) in 27 large cities, 146
1926 1956, and 1963 -.-----------------------------------
XI-8. Apartent size in cities and workers' settlements, 1957-63_ 147
XI-9. Density of occupancy per room in urban communities of
the U.S.S.R. in 1923, 1926, 19.10, 1950, 1960, 1961, 1962, and 147
1963----------------------------------------------------
XI-10. Occupancy of srnall-size apartments in 1958-59 ------ 147
XI-1L Urban population provided with municipal utilities, 1.927, 148
1939, and 1956---------------------------------------------
_ 148
CHAPTER XII. Transportation .--_-.---------------------------------
Tables:
XII-1. Growth of freight traffic in the U.S.S.R., by type of 149
carrier, 1955, 1959--63, and 1965 plans------------- ----
XII-2. Value and volume indexes of the growth of total freight
traffic in. the U.S.S.R., 1955, 1959-63, and 1965 plans ------ 150
CHAPTER XIII. Foreign trade ----------------------------------------- 151
Highlights of recent developments in the foreign trade of the U.S.S.R-1151
51
Soviet foreign trade turnover, 1958-63 (table) ---------------- A. Recent trends in trade volume--------------------------- 151
B. Geographic pattern of Soviet foreign trade----------------- 152 152
Geographic distribution of Soviet foreign trade (table) ----- 153
C. Commodity structure------------------------------------- 153
1. Exports---------------------------------------------
2. Imports ----------------------------------------------- 153
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Chapter XIII-Continued
Highlights of recent developments, etc.-Continued Pago
D. The pattern of Soviet trade by region_____________________ 153
1. Trade with Eastern Europe__________________________ 153
a. Exports---------------------- ---------------- 153
Soviet trade in machinery and equipment with
CEMA countries-1963 (table)________________ 154
b. Imports--------------------------------------- 154
2. Trade with China_________________________________ 155
3. Trade with the industrial West_______________________ 155
4. Trade with the less-developed countries---------------- 156
E. Recent trends in Soviet trade policy---------------------- 157
1. Eastern Europe------------------------------------- 157
2. The newly developing countries_______________________ 159
3. The industrial West_________________________________ 159
Tables:
XIII-1. Geographic distribution of Soviet foreign trade, 1955-
63------------------------------------------------ ---- 161
XIII-2. Commodity composition of Soviet exports, 1955, 1958-
63----------------------------------------------------- 162
XIII-3. Commodity composition of Soviet imports, 1955, 1958-
63--------------------------- 163
XIII-4. Commodity composition of Soviet exports to European
satellites, 1955, 1958-63 _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ 164
XIII-5. Commodity composition of Soviet imports from Euro-
pean satellites, 1055, 1958-63 ----------------------------- 165
XIII-6. Commodity composition of Soviet exports to Com-
munist China, 1955, 1958-63------------------------------ 166
XIII-7. Commodity composition of Soviet imports from Com-
munist China, 1955, 1958-63 ------------------------------ 167
XIII-8. Commodity composition of Soviet exports to the
industrial West, 1955, 1958-63---------------------------- 168
XIII-9. Commodity composition of Soviet imports from the
industrial West, 1955, 1958-63---------------------------- 169
XIII-10. Commodity composition of Soviet exports to less
developed countries, 1955, 1958-63------------------------ 170
XIII-11. Commodity composition of Soviet imports from less
developed countries, 1955, 1958-63 ------------------------ 170
XIII-12. Trends in. foreign trade between the U.S.S.R. and
selected free world countries, 1955, 1958-63 ----------------- 171
XIII-13. Soviet imports from the underdeveloped countries,
1955, and 1959-63--------------------------------------- 172
XIII-14. Soviet exports to the underdeveloped countries, 1955,
and 1959-63------------------ 173
XIII-15. U.S.S.R. imports of chemical plants and equipment,
1955-63--------------------- 174
XIII-16. Total Soviet economic credits and grants extended to
non-Communist underdeveloped countries, January 1, 1954,
to December 31,1964____________________________________ 174
CHAPTER XIV. Economic indicators for the Soviet bloc---------------- 175
Tables:
XIV-1. Gross national product of the Sino-Soviet bloc, 1960-63-- 175
XIV-2. Intrabloc trade as percentage of total trade by countries
of the Sino-Soviet bloc, 1963------------------------------ 175
XIV-3. Areas sown to principal crops in Sino-Soviet bloc coun-
tries, 1963 ----------------176
XIV-4. Harvest of selected crops in Sino-Soviet bloc countries,
1963 --------------------------------------------177
X IV-5. Sino-Soviet intrabloc trade, 1963--------------------- 178
XIV-6. Production of selected basic commodities in Sino-Soviet
bloc countries, 1963-------------------------------------- 179
Xl~;-7. Production of Fe lected manufactured products, 1963 ---- 180
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XII CONTENTS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Page
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF RECENT SOVIETMONOGRAPHS --------------- 181
Subject listing:
Background----------------------------------------------- 183
Capital investment ------------------------------------------ 183
Communist Party------------------------------------------- 184
Cooperatives-.----------------------------------------------- 185
Cost of production------------------------------------------ 185
Economy (general) ------------------------------------------ 185
Geography, urbanization, location of industry ------------------ 186
Input-output------------------------------------------------ 187
International.comparisons ----------------------------------- 188
Labor ------------------------------------------------------ 188
Law------------ - ------------------------------------------ 190
Level of living ---------------------------------------------- 191
National income, State budget, taxes ------------------------ 192
Planning--------------------------------------------------- 192
Population and vital statistics_______________________________ 193
Prices----------------------------------------------------- 194
Regionaleconomy ----------------------------------------- 195
Social insurance, social security ------------ ?---------------- 196
Statistics, accounting, mechanized data processing------------- 196
Trade union:----------------------------------------------- 197
Wages----------------------------------------------------- 197
Branch listing:
Industry:
General ---------------------------------------------- 198
Electric power------------------------------------------ 199
Fuels-------------------------------------------- ---- 200
Metallurgy--------------------------------------------- 201
Machine-building and metalworking_____________________ 202
Chemical----------------------------------------- --- 203
Construction materials---------------------------------- 203
Logging, woodworking, and paper ----------------------- 203
Light-------------------------------------------------- 204
Food---------------------------------------------------- 204
Constructioii ----------------------------------------------- 204
Agriculture ------------------------------------------------ 205
Forestry----------------------------------------------- ---- 207
Transportation: 207
General -------------------------------------------------
Railroad---------------------------------------------- 208
Automotive-------------------------------------------- 208
Sea------------------------------------------------------ 208
River--------------------------------------------------- 208
Air----------------------------------------------------- 209
Communications-------------------------------------------- 209
Trade and material-Technical supply_______________________ 209
Housing-Communal economy ------------------------------- - 210
Public health------------------------------------------------ 210
Education----------------- 211
Science and scientific services -------------------------------- 211
Banking 211
Government----------------------------------------------- 212
Armed Forces----------------------------------------------- 213
Other----------------------------------------------------- 213
Addendum--------- ________________ 215
APPENDIX
Preliminary report on the per;.ormance of the economy of the U.S.S.R.
in 1964------------------- ---------
Tables :
A-1. Industry---------------------------------------------
A-2. Agriculture-------------------------------------------
A-3. Transport-------------------------------------------
A-4. Other economic indicators-----------------------------
219
219
220
220
220
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INTRODUCTION
THE SOVIET ECONOMY IN 1963
A. SLOWDOWN IN THE RATE Or ECONOMIC GROWTH
The performance of the Soviet economy during 1963 was marked
by a sharp decline in the overall rate of growth, a decline that was
manifestly induced by the absolute drop in the output of the agricul-
tural sector. The gross national product of the country; i.e., the
indicator which measures the aggregate value of all goods and services,
increased somewhat in 1963, but the advance amounted to an abnor-
Inally low rate of 2.6 percent, the lowest percentage of growth in
recent Soviet history. Five years earlier, in 1958, the annual growth
rate of the Soviet Union was 8.5 percent.
In terms of average rates of growth, as indicated in detail in chap-
ter I of the present study, the U.S.S.R. has recently slipped from
the second highest position among the leflding industrial nations,
after West Germany, to the fifth position, below that of France.
More recently, since 1961, in fact, the Soviet Union has fallen behind
the United States, as far as annual growth rates are concerned.
In dollar terms, the aggregate value of goods and services produced
in the U.S.S.R. in 1963 has been calculated in the present study (in
1963 market prices) at $265 billion, an amount equal to 46 percent of
the gross national product of the United States. In regard to its
overall output, in other words, the U.S.S.R. continues to hold its
:position as the second largest economy in the world. In per capita
terms, however, its comparative position in 1963 was considerably
lower; namely, just barely ahead of Italy, as shown below:
Comparative per capita dollar value of GNP, 1963
[In 1963 market prices]
United States -----------------------------------------------------
3,084
France-----------------------------------------------------------
1,964
Germany (German Federal Republic) --------------------------------
1, 858
United Kingdom--------------------------------------------------
1,803
U.S.S.R----------------------------------------------------------
1,178
Italy----------------------------------------------------- ------
1,107
Japan------------------------------------------------------------
907
The steady decline in the tempo of economic expansion in the
U.S.S.R. during the past 5 years may be traced, in large part, to a
sharp drop in the rate of growth in the allocation of new capital
investment. As measured by the broad indicator of "fixed invest-
ment," the annual rate of growth of new capital investment had been
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proceeding at an average of 10.8 percent during 1951-58. However,
in the course of the subsequent 5-year period (1959-63) new capital
was plowed into the economy at an incremental rate of 7.1 percent
per annum. Moreover, for the most recent period, 1961-63, the
investment effort slackened off still further, showing an annual average
growth rate of only 4.7 percent; 6.7 percent if new housing is excluded.
In regard to investment, too, the year 1961 was something of a
turning point in the recent economic history of the U.S.S.R. In that
year, as shown in considerable detail in chapter IV of our study, a
sharp decline began to manifest itself in the rate of growth of new
construction activity which remained almost unchanged during the
following 2 years. By comparison, it should be noted, the volume
of construction grew at an annual rate of nearly 14 percent during
1956-60.
One major factor responsible for the low growth rates in industrial
investment since :L961 has been the dislocation resulting from the
recent well-publicized effort on the pert of the political authorities to
carry out a major shift in the industrial structure in favor of such
"progressive," growth-inducing branches as the chemical, petro-
chemical, and electronics industries. Beyond that, however, the
lower trends in investment growth of the past few years reflect the
diversion of :resources to other programs, including various research-
intensive equipment, for the military establishment and for space
exploration.
The year :1963 also witnessed a serious depression in the level of
agricultural output in the country. Grains were affected most
adversely by a widespread incidence of dry weather, with the result
that only 89.3 million metric tons of grain were harvested in 1963, as
compared with 112 million tons produced in 1962. Wheat production,
in particular, declined by 26.5 .percent from the level of the preceding
year.
In terms of yield, too, the Soviet farm economy performed poorly
in 1963. In wheat, for example, the yield per acre amounted to 9.2
bushels, which is equal to 36 percent of the amount of grain produced
per acre during the year in the United States; namely, 25.3 bushels.
The level of production of livestock commodities moved somewhat
erratically in 1963. Owing to a severe shortage of feed, which induced
distress slaughtering, meat went up slightly, while the output of milk
and eggs moved downward at a moderate pace. In comparison with
the level of output in the United States, production of the above four
major livestock commodities showed. the following proportions in
1963; pork, 56 percent; beef and veal, 40 percent; milk (cows), 92
percent; eggs, 45 percent.
The industrial sector of the Soviet -economy also witnessed a
notable decline in growth during the year 1963. Civilian production
increased by 6.6 percent over the preceding year, the smallest increase
of the postwar period. This marks the fourth consecutive year of
annual rates of expansion of less than 8 percent. By comparison, as
shown by the data below, the average annual increase in industrial
output during the fifties was about 10 percent.
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Annual rates of growth of civilian industrial output in the U.S.S.R.
1066-59
average
1060-63
average
Total industry
--------------------------------------------------------
0.7
7.0
-----:
------------------------------------------
Industrial materials---------
9.6
6.1
--
including electronics--------------------------------
Civilian machinery
12.4
11. 5
,
Nondurable consumer goods---------------------------------------------
7.4
3.9
The pattern of growth in recent years, as may be expected, has
been fairly uneven. By viewing developments over the two most
recent 4-year periods it is possible to observe that the officially favored
branches of industry continue to be maintained more or less in the
style of growth to which they had become accustomed over the dec-
ades. Accordingly, the average annual rate of increase declined from
one 4-year period to the other, as illustrated above, by nearly a half
for nondurable consumer goods, while industrial materials lost about
a third of its earlier growth rate. In the category of machinery and
electronics, by contrast, the decline in the rate of growth during the
second 4-year period was by less than 10 percent.
There are several factors that help to account for the slowdown in
the rate of industrial growth in the Soviet Union after 1959. To
begin with, as explained more fully in the chapters dealing with invest-
ment and im.'.i?stry-, there has 'boon a sharp decline in industrial invest-
ment. Apart from that, there has been a shift in the allocation
pattern of new capital, a shift that has involved the assimilation of un-
familiar new technology. Lowered levels of output in agriculture have
also played a part in the reduced expansion of industry by shrinking
the available supply of industrial raw materials. Another negative
effect may be traced to the reduction in the length of the average
workweek from 46 hours in 1959 to 41 in 1961. In addition to the
above, industrial developments have been affected adversely by the
preemption of high quality resources by the military sector, at the
expense of investment of new plant and equipment for civilian industry.
5. DEFENSE EXPENDITURES
As has often been the case in the past, the sharp decline in the rate of
increase in capital investment in the U.S.S.R., underway since 1960,
has been accompanied by a conspicuous rise in defense expenditures.
These two categories of expenditures have always been competing
claimants upon the resources of the domestic economy. Judging by
the evidence at hand, Soviet authorities have chosen to favor the de-
fense sector in recent years. This is indicated by the fact that explicit
defense outlays have risen by more than 10.5 percent per year between
1.060 and 1963, from 9.3 to 13.3 billion rubles. In contrast, investment
has grown at a rate of only 4.7 percent during the same 3-year period.
In recent months, the question has often been raised in public
print as to whether the new leadership, which came to power in the
Soviet Union in October 1964, is likely to reduce military spending
in order to provide for a better supply of agricultural products and
consumer goods in the domestic economy. The fact most responsible
for this line of speculation has been the recent announcement by
Party Chieftain Brezhnev that the Soviet Government will spend
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$79 billion on the improvement of the agricultural economy during
the next 5-year plan (1966--70).
While the Soviet leaders have understandably avoided making
any direct commitment on so sensitive a subject as the pattern of
resource allocation, they have, since their accession to power, assured
the public that agriculture would be treated more generously than it
had been in the past.
It does not necessarily follow, however, that an increase in the
allocation of more capital to agriculture would make it necessary for
the Soviet authorities to cut back on their defense expenditures.
A close analysis of the new agricultural plan for 1966-70, as presented
by L. Brezhnev to the Central Committee on March 24, 1964, points
to the conclusion that the rulers of the U.S.S.R. can continue their
present intense effort in the sphere, of military and space research
and development, as well as in the expansion and deployment of
advanced weapons system, without serious concern over the,possible
adverse impact of this effort on the agricultural economy. The kind
of resources that are required to inject a higher level of productivity
into agriculture, e.g., tractors, trucks, farm machinery, construction
equipment, etc., no longer play a critical role in the modern defense
industry. If anything, a large diversion of production inputs of this
kind into agriculture would tend to impose a serious burden on the
conventional branches of heavy industry, i.e., the branches which
are both producers and consumers of this kind of mass-produced
equipment. Modern weapon systems, on the other hand, depend more
for their support and expansion upon the newer industries equipped
especially to produce electronics, automatic mechanisms, precision
instruments, and hand-tooled missiles of various kinds. They require,
in addition, highly trained scientists, design engineers, and unusually
skilled technicians of the kind that would not be, in the foreseeable
future, conceivably transferred to jobs in the mass production lines
of the farm machinery and automotive industries.
6. CONSUMPTION LEVELS
It is important to bear in mind, however, that the absolute volume
of new investment continues to be very high in the U.S.S.R. Only
the rates of new increments in annual capital allocations have declined
of late. In 1963, for example, the aggregate figure for new investment
in the U.S.S.R., amounted to 42.2 billion rubles, an enormous sum that
is fully equal, in dollars, to the amount allocated to investment in the
United States, although total consumption in the Soviet economy
is equal to only one-third of the value of goods and services consumed
in this country. Inevitably, therefore, the large outlays which the
Soviet Government makes annually on investment and defense
reduces severely the fund of resources available for consumption by
the population.
As compared with its own past, to be sure, per capita consumption
in the U.S.S.R. has increased substantially in recent years. In 1963,
for example, it had reached a level equal to 70 percent above that of
1950. This reflects an average increase of about 4 percent a year.
In comparison with the major Western nations, however, the
U.S.S.R. has failed to make any dramatic progress within the past
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dozen years. Thus, for example, in 1963 per capita consumption in
the U.S.S.R. amounted to less than 90 percent of that in Italy. In
respect to this important indicator, in other words, its position
relative to Italy remained the same as it was in 1950.
In comparison with the United States, too, the recent Soviet record
in per capita consumption has made little tangible relative progress.
True, in 1963 Soviet per capita consumption reached a level equal to
about 30 percent of that in the United States, whereas in 1950 it
amounted to some 20 percent of our level. However, most of the
gain made by the U.S.S.R., relative to the United States level, was
achieved by 1958. Since then, consumption per capita has grown at
about the same rate in both countries.
Apart from the difference in the aggregate volume of consumption,
as shown in the relevant chapter, there are a number of important
differences in the pattern of consumption in the two countries.
To cite one prominent difference: The share of starchy staples (grain
products and potatoes) continues to be distinctively large in the
U.S.S.R. It was larger in fact in the Soviet Union in 1962 than in the
United States more than a half century ago. In addition, as shown in
some detail in section VIII of this report consumption of food per
capita in the U.S.S.R. remains unusually high relative to otter
consumer goods to this day, reflecting a familiar social phenomenon;
namely, that in a country with a low level of earnings a large propor-
tion of the personal income of the population is devoted to food
expenditures. By comparison, nonfood products and personal
services absorb a smaller share of the consumer ruble. In fact, per
capita consumption in 1963 of most of these items in the U.S.S.R.
amounted to little more than 15 percent of that in the United States.
Estimated stocks of consumer's durables at end of 1963
[Units per 1,000 persons]
U.S.S.R. as
percent of
United States
Sewing machines
------------------------------------------
135
98-
---
Radios
--------------------------------------------
974
20
------------
Television sets
-------------------------------------------
-
318
17
-
---
Automobiles
------------------------------------------------
272
1
--
Refrigerators
----------------------------------------------
288
8
----
washing machines--------------------------------------------
216
17
Another distinctive feature of the Soviet pattern of consumption is
the high level of consumption of state .provided services such as health
and education. Their high priority in the allocation pattern reflects
the fact that such services are regarded by the Soviet Government as
falling under the heading of investment rather than consumption.
In housing, the improvements in the level of available space, rela-
tive to population, has slowed down in recent years. New additions of
urban dwelling space in 1963 amounted to 77.4 million square meters,
as against 82.8 in 1960. By way of comparison, living space per capita
in the U.S.S.R. in 1963 amounted to approximately 20 percent of that
available in the United States. In this respect, there was no measur-
able improvement since 1950.
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7. POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
Because of the severe wartime losses in population, actual as well as
potential, the Soviet Union has also had to contend with a less favor-
able manpower situation in recent years. In 1963, employment out-
side of agriculture increased by 2 million persons, as compared with
the addition of 4.2 million nonfarm wage earners made in 1961. As
far as the growth of the labor force as a whole is concerned, the rate of
new additions has declined as follows : from an average rate of 1.9
percent for the period 1950-58 to an average of 1.4 percent during the
next 5 years (1958 -63).
This downward trend reflects (a) the delayed effect of the low birth
rate of the wartime period arid (b) the absence of any perceptible slack
for raising further still the high labor participation ratio of the Soviet
population, which is already quite high.
Another setback to the Soviet drive for rapid economic growth
came in the form of a slowdown in the advancement of labor produc-
tivity. In the earlier of the two periods, tinder review here, Soviet
performance in the sphere of labor productivity growth ranked very
li.igh, just below that of Germany. Specifically calculated in chapter
I of this study, the average rate of growth in Soviet labor productivity
measured 5.0 percent per year during 1950-58. During the sub-
sequent 5-year period, however, labor productivity in the U.S.S.R.
advanced at a much reduced average rate; namely 3.1 percent. Thus,
the deterioration in the growth rate of Soviet productivity perform-
ance was the most pronounced among the major economies compared
in this report.
8. FOR:EI:GN TRADE
In its commerce with other nations, the Soviet Union has maintained
a fairly steady rate of expansion in recent years. Total trade turn-
over [exports plus imports] rose by 6 percent in 1963, reaching a level
of $14.3 billion. At that level it was equal to 35 percent of the dollar
value of the foreign commerce of the United States. In comparison
with the other major trading nations of the world, the U.S.S.R. now
ranks fifth is line, behind France and slightly ahead of Canada.
Viewed over the past 10-year period, the annual value of Soviet
foreign trade expanded by 150 percent; in part, at least, as a result of
(a) the return of the U.S.S.R. to its traditional markets in Western
Europe and (b) its more active involvement in commodity exchanges
with the newly developing countries. Still, the strong preference for
trading with other Communist nations remains in effect. In 1963,
as in preceding years, 70 percent of all Soviet trade transactions were
completed with trade partners within the Communist world.
B. THE SEARCH FOR HIGHER LEVELS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
1. DISCONTENT OF THE LEADERSHIP
The loss of economic momentum during the past 3 to 5 years has
produced a mood of serious self-examination among policymakers and
economic experts alike in the U.S.S.R. By 1962, there was very little
left of the buoyant optimism over economic prospects which pervaded
official Soviet opinion during the mid-fifties.
Even before the shock of the depressed harvest of 1963 had spread
through the society as a whole, Soviet leaders began to voice com-
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plaints about the qualitative and dynamic aspects of their production
system. They have complained, in general, about the failure of their
planners and managers to make more effective use of the vast array
of economic resources at their disposal. They have complained, in
particular, about the declining yield in added output from new capital
investment; about the all-too-slow growth of labor productivity; about
the neglect of modern branches and processes of production; about the
general indifference among the nation's plant managers to new, better,
and cheaper materials; about the general resistance to innovation at
the enterprise level; and about the deep-seated bureaucratic tendency
on all levels of operation to rely on established, routine methods of
manufacturing and distribution.
In one of his memorable addresses dealing with the problem of
economic planning, delivered in November 1962, former Premier
Khrushchev gave vent, in great detail, to the long pent-up discontent
of the party hierarchy with the level of efficiency in the Soviet econ-
omy. He was especially critical of the pervasive lethargy among
Soviet planners, administrators, and plant managers with respect to
new, more efficient ideas and processes in the country's industrial
plant. He was beginning to wonder, he declared, "whether this
proves our inability to utilize technical progress."
An important reason for the loss of self-confidence among Soviet
economic authorities is the fundamental fact that the economy of the
U.S.S.R. has been growing bigger but not better. About a decade ago,
official Soviet spokesmen were wont to cite as evidence of a consider-
able potential reserve for their own economic progress the fact that
the country's industrial labor force was still well below its optimal
size. Now, however, this particular reserve has been exhausted.
Industrial employment in the U.S.S.R. is now beyond the proportion
once considered optimal by Soviet economists; namely, 8 to 10 percent
of the country's total population. In 1963, in fact, Russia's industrial
manpower numbered 25 million persons, i.e., a figure larger by 40
percent than the 18 million that make u.p the industrial labor force
,of the United States. Yet, even according to their own undocumented
claim, Soviet industry turns out a total annual product that is 35
percent lower than the aggregate U.S. industrial output.
In short, the continued annual recruitment of ever more new labor
numbers into industry does not seem to be sufficient to alter the
lagging relative position of the U.S.S.R. as an industrial producer.
If anything, the mechanical practice of feeding a maximum of addi-
tional labor into the favored branches of production has tended to
minimize the pressure for more efficient methods of labor utilization
and, therefore, to delay progress in the critical area of labor produc-
tivity.
These practical difficulties arising from the low efficiency of new
capital and labor inputs have generated a widespread discussion
among academic economists and economic administrators in the
U.S.S.R. aimed at a thoroughgoing reform of existing economic
policies and practices. This officially sponsored discussion has been
consciously directed toward a search for higher standards of produc-
tion efficiency. In practical terms, as recently explained by Premier
Kosygin in his address of December 9, 1964, to the Supreme Soviet,
this discussion is expected to result in the discovery of new ways and
means of "obtaining maximum results at minimum expenditure of
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MIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R..
labor and material, based on high labor productivity and a high
scientific and technical standard of production." Unless a "sub-
stantial change for the better" is achieved in this regard, Kosygin
warned, it will be impossible to attain the party's declared goal of
"an increase in the rate of growth of the national economy and the
channeling of more resources toward raising the well-being of the
people."
2. PROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC REFORMS
With the ouster of Khrushchev and the coming to power of the
Brezhnev-Kosygin regime, public demand for economic reform in the
U.S.S.R., which began in 1962, entered a new, more authoritative
phase. The ideas that were presented in 1962 by a once obscure
Kharkov professor and subjected at that time to widespread criticism,
in the space of 2 years evolved to become the new orthodoxy of the
post-Khrushchev Soviet leadership.
"We shall proceed toward planning on the basis of orders placed
by consumers not only in industry :producing consumer goods but
also in other branches of the national economy." With these words,
which were also addressed to the Supreme Soviet on December 9,
1964, Premier Kosygin announced the intention of the new Soviet
leadership to adopt many of the very un-Marxian ideas that have
come since 1962 to be associated with "Libermanism"--after Yevsey
G. Liberman, professor of economics at the Kharkov Engineering-
Economics Institute.
Liberman's main idea, which was first aired in Pravda in September
1962, affirms that the preparation by the central planners of detailed
assignments to be executed without question by the industrial enter-
prises tends to hamper rather than help the latter in their basic
effort to satisfy the needs of society. He proposed, therefore, that
the attainment of maximum profitability--profits divided by total
(fixed plus working) capital--rather than the physical fulfillment of
specific production tasks assigned by the planners be made the cri-
terion of enterprise performance. Under the operation of the profit
incentive, he argued, enterprises could be relied upon to search more
effectively for means of improving their economic performance than
under present bureaucratically determined plans.
Publication of Liberman's proposals raised a storm of discussion
in the Soviet press and resulted in the proliferation of many proposals
for further reforms. Other reforms proposed included adoption of
such capitalist ideas as quasi-markets, with centrally established
prices, to distribute output of both consumer and producer goods;
overhaul of wholesale prices; interest charges on the use of fixed and
working capital.
Resistance in the U.S.S.R. to the proposals-both ideological and
practical-is deep rooted. To a large extent these proposals were
hold in abeyance by the Khrushchev leadership. Yet, the proposals
are designed to provide solutions to very real economic problems of the
U.S.S.R. The present system of management of resources is in-
efficient and wasteful. Quality of products is poor. Supply is badly
organized, which results in the creation of artificial scarcities. New
products and new technological processes are introduced only slowly.
Planning is grossly conceived, cumbersome, and prone to costly
mistakes.
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
These problems are not at all new to the leadership of the U.S.S.R.,
since they have often been the subject of official complaints since the
early 1930's. In recent years, however, they have become a matter of
urgency to the extent that the rate of growth of the economy has
:slowed while the range of commitments has been expanding. It is
this slowdown that has increased the pressure for better management
of economic resources and stimulated the active quest of the new
Soviet leadership for economic reform.
Kosygin's statement to the Supreme Soviet calls for the gradual
extension in some form of a new production-marketing system based
on Liberman's ideas, the testing of which was initiated belatedly in
two garment enterprises by the Khrushchev leadership in July 1964.
The system provided for the two garment enterprises-Bol'shevichka
in Moscow and Ma yak in Gorki-to determine their own plans for
volume, quality, and assortment of production on the basis of orders
from the trade network. By the same token, they were freed from
the routine of centrally allocated supply of material inputs other than
capital goods.
The enterprises in the experiment are subjected to two performance
criteria: first, the volume of output sold must be sufficiently large to
make full use of existing production capacity; and second, the cen-
trally established plan for profitability must be fulfilled (or over-
fulfilled). Decisions as to quality, amounts used, and inventories of
inputs, including number of workers employed, as well as the intro-
duction of new processing methods and new products, are left to the
enterprise director to be determined on the basis of (a) orders from the
trade network and (b) profitability of the work. The new system
makes no provision for significant changes in the prices of the plants'
products or inputs. Requests for purchases of capital goods and
plant expansion continue to be subject to review by central authority.
No provision is made for interest charges on fixed or working capital.
On October 20, 1964, shortly after the ouster of Khrushchev, the
U.S.S.R. Sovnarkhoz announced that the new system is to be ex-
-tended to enterprises accounting for one-fourth of the output of
garments and footwear during 1965. Moreover, an additional test
of the system was scheduled to begin January 1, 1965, in five enter-
prises in Lvov-including two heavy industry enterprises. Presum-
ably the new system is to be extended, at some later date, to the
remaining enterprises producing consumer goods and, eventually, to
heavy industry as well.
Much work remains to be done to make the new system perform its
tasks effectively. Well-known defects, such as the continued practice
of central allocation of capital goods and the failure to adopt a capital
charge, remain within the specific provisions of the new system.
The elimination of irrational prices, upon which the system's effec-
tiveness depends, must also be carried out. Moreover, extensive
adoption of the system is likely to create difficult problems of integrat-
ing the sections using the new system with the remainder of the
economy. The outlook for the next few years is for continued pro-
posals, discussions, and controversy along with cautious experi-
mentation with novel and un-Marxian methods of economic decision-
making. Hence, no measurable improvement in the efficiency of
use of resources, or in the rate of growth of the economy, can be
expected from this source during the period.
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TRENDS IN SOVIET GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.
SUMMARY
In 1963 Soviet GNP growth continued the declining trend evident
since 1958, thus exacerbating the policy dilemma of satisfying pro-
liferating demands on a tightening resource base. The abnormally
depressed 2.6-percent increase in 1963 reflected adverse agricultural
weather conditions and would have been close to 5 percent under nor-
mal circumstances. Shortfalls in agriculture compounded the shift
in the production structure from commodities to the services. From
1960 to 1963 both consumption and investment experienced sharply
reduced growth rates, while defense expenditures have risen dra-
matically. However, in 1963 and 1964 defense outlays leveled off and
the new regime has reiterated its pledges to the consumer and voiced
its desire to move the economy ahead at a more rapid rate.
Growth retardation can be largely explained in terms of reduced
percentage increments to the labor force and to sharply reduced labor
productivit increases. In the latter respect Soviet performance has
been notably poor in comparison with other major economies. Wor-
sened labor productivity performance can be in part initially explained
by the reduced rate of investment, but a more important factor has
been the sharply reduced rate of return on investment (higher capital-
output ratios). In this respect, too, the Soviet record by international
comparison has been particularly dismal. In turn, both the reduced
rate of investment and its falling efficiency can be ascribed to the
longer time required to assimilate the new technologies of chemicals,
oil and gas, and complex machinery and to the diversion of vital
scarce human and material inputs into production of sophisticated
= weapons.
Soviet gross national product is somewhat less than half as large
as that of the United States and 2% times that of the major West
European economies, but on a per capita basis about three-eighths as
large as the United States and a third less than West Germany, France,
or the United Kingdom. The U.S.S.R.-U.S. ratio has not been
widened since 1961 and in absolute terms the U.S. margin has been
increasing since 1958. Soviet growth through 1970 will probably
average between 4.5 and 5.5 percent annually, about a percentage point
above the United States, but no higher than France or Italy and
much below that of Japan. Given these projections, the absolute
GNP differential between the U.S.S.R. and the United States will
continue to diverge. With a reduced growth rate the Soviet leader-
ship will face a major challenge in reducing to realistic dimensions the
simultaneous pursuit of increases in consumer welfare, rapid growth,
and maintenance of military parity with the United States. A desire
to minimize this overcommitment from a tightening resource base
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12 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
could further stimulate efforts to improve the efficiency of the opera-
tion of the economy with consequent far-reaching institutional reforms.
COMPARATIVE GROWTH PERFORMANCE
The basic economic dilemma of limited resources to meet burgeoning
requirements, which has pla ued Soviet regimes in recent years, was
particularly acute in 1963. The new leadership, as indicated by their
public pronouncements and the 1965 state budget and plan, has
reaffirmed this vexation. Commitments have proliferated. beyond
the simple Stalinist goals of rapid growth and a powerful conventional
military posture to include consumer welfare, growth based on new
technology, and parity with the United States in sophisticated
weaponry. In contrast, the wherewithal to sustain this expanded
array of priorities has worsened, both in terms of basic resource
availabilities and of the efficiency with which these resources have
been employed.
The long-term decline in the rate of growth of national produce
-which ensued after 1958 has continued through the present (table
TABLE I-1. Annual and period growth rates of Soviet GNP 1
[Percentages]
Year
Rate
Period
Rate
1958------------------------------------
8.5
1950-58 average------------------------
7.0
059 -------------------------------------
4,2
1958-63 average------------------------
4.5
1960----------------------------------
4. SI
1961------------------------------------
6.8
_________________________________________
____________
1962------------------------------------
4.3
.-----------------------------------------
-----------
1963------------------------------------
_
2.6
_
----------------------------------------- I
------------
I For derivation of component origin sector growth rates see appendix table 1, and for derivation of sector
weights see appendix table 2.
NarE.-The 1964 estimates published by the Joint Economic Committee showed a considerably lower
.growth rate for 1962. The revision this year is explained by recalculation of the agricultural production esti-
mate on the basis of more comprehensive information.. The higher rate is also influenced by the substitution
of 1959 originating sector value added weighls (see appendix, table 2) for the 1955 weights used last year.
The new weights reduce the weight of agriculture and hence the depressing effect on GNP of the decline in
agricultural output.
In no year since 1.958 has the Soviet Union matched the annual
average growth rate it achieved in the 8 years prior to that date,
.as indicated in table I-1. In terms of international comparisons it
has slipped from. a position second only to West Germany among the
principal industrial powers in the period 1950- 58 to an average below
that of Japan, Italy, West Germany, and France during the subse-
quent 5 years (table 1-2). Moreover, since 1961 the U.S.S.R. has
.also fallen behind the United States in its. growth performance.
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0 C' IATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE I-2.-Comparative growth rates of gross national product
[Percentages)
Period rates
(annual averages)
1950-68 1
1958-63
U.S.S.R-------------------------------------
8.5
4.2
4.9
6.8
2.6
4.5
France---- ----------------------------------
2.5
2.8
7.3
4.3
4.3
5.0
Germany (Federal Republic)---------------
3.5
7.1
8.9
5.8
3.2
5.9
Italy ----------------------------------------
4.4
7.3
6.8
8.3
4.8
6. 6
United Kingdom -------------------------- ___
1.0
3.6
4.5
3.3
3.5
3.0
Japan---------------------------------------
-.1
? 18.3
13.0
15.8
8.3
12.5
United States_______________________________
-1.2
8: 7
2.5
1.9
3.4
4.1
Sources: United States and Western European economies: OECD, Statistics of National Accounts, 1950-61,
Paris, 1964. OECD, General Statistics-National Accounts Supplement, Paris, 1964. Statistical Office of
the European Economic Communities, General Statistical Bulletin, No. 11. 1964. National Institute of"
Economic and Social Research, National Institute Economic Review, November 1904, London. U.S. De-
partment of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, July 1904. United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Sta-
tistics, November 1964, p. 8.
Japan: Bank of Japan, Economic Statistics of Japan, 1961. Ministry of Finance, Quarterly Bulletin of
Financial Statistics, 1st quarter, fiscal year 1964.
U.S.S.R.-GNP. (See appendix, table 1.)
The trend of the last 2 years in the later period is below the long-
term trend as it has been heavily influenced by 2 years of unfavorable
weather. If weather factors are discounted and it is assumed that the
agricultural growth trend for 1958-61 would have prevailed under
normal conditions, the average annual rise in GNP would have been
close to 5 percent.
CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF PRODUCTION AND THE USE OF RESOURCES-
The reduced pace of expansion has involved significant changes in
the structure of the Soviet economy, particularly from primary, but
also from secondary to tertiary production. If the 8 years prior to
1958 are contrasted with the 5 years following that year, the com-
modity producing sectors (primary and secondary) of the economy
have exhibited sharp decelerations while the service rendering sectors
(tertiary) have experienced higher growth rates (see appendix, table
1). Much of this shift can be explained by the evolution of the Soviet
economy to a more advanced level, but it has been compounded by
output shortfalls in agriculture with subsequent resource impacts on
raw material availabilities to industry.
Agriculture has yet to attain the output level set in 1961, while
the growth rate in industry has fallen from an average annual rate of
9 percent for the period 1950-58 to a rate of 7.5 percent since 1958.
In construction the rate of increase has been halved as resources have
been diverted away from investment and in transportation the rate is
considerably less. By contrast the net outputs of the commerce and
services sectors have risen at accelerated tempos since 1958. The,
decline in defense 2 and constancy in administrative services since
1958 has been more than offset by the rapid increase in educational'
medical, housing, and especially scientific services,2
Available computations of official data do not permit so clear a
comparison of trends in the uses of GNP, but some significant changes
Y As used in the context of income originating, defense services pertain only to personnel expenditures..
Other elements of defense expenditure appear in other originating sector categories. Procurement is re-
flected in industrial production, research and some development in scientific services, and military con-
struction in the construction sector.
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~4 CURRENT ECON AP
are apparent. The retardation in growth has led to lessened in-
creases in levels of consumption, half the rate in the period after 1958
of that experienced in the previous 8 years (table 1-3). This decline
is largely the result of stagnation in agricultural production with
the reduction in the rate of new housing construction contributing in
smaller measure. Since 1958 increases in Soviet per capita consump-
tion levels have been considerably below those of the three principal
continental economies whose consumers already enjoyed per capita
consumption levels nearly twice as high as their Soviet counterparts.3
In fact, the Soviet rate of improvement has only marginally exceeded
that of the United. Kingdom and the United States (table 1-3) while
the level at per capita consumption in the United States remained
between three and. four times that of the U.S.S.R.4
TABLE I-3.---Comparative growth of consumption and investment
[Average annual, rates]
Consu
per c
mption
apita
Fix
invest
ed
me0it
Nonresi
invest
dential
ment
S
U
S.R--------------------- --
2. 5
10.8
7.1
12.5
8.9
.
.
France ---
3.8
5.5
6.5
4.5
6.6
Germany (Federal Republic) _.
5.7
9. 6
9.3
10. 0
8.7
Italy
---------------------
6.4
8.2
10.3
6.2
10.3
----
United Kingdom --.--------_-_
2.4
4.4
5.4
4.7
3.8
Japan 1
7.2
7.7
19.9
(2)
(2)
United States_________________
2.3
1.3
5.7
1. 6
5.8
1 1953-58.
2 Not available.
Sources: Market economies-See table 1-2.
U.S.S.R.: Consumption (see table VIII-1); investment (see sources for construction index in table I-1).
At the same time there has been a sharp decline in the rate of
growth in new capital investment. In contrast, except for West
Germany where the drop was nominal, the rate of investment rose in
the market economies between the two periods. There has been an
actual decline in housing construction, largely the result of a sharp
curtailment in private housing authorizations. In recent years the
investment decline has been even more dramatic, the annual average
increment for 1961-63 being only 4.7 percent for all investment and
6.7 percent if housing is excluded.
Between 1960 and 1963 defense expenditures, as measured by the
imperfect indicator of the state budget, increased by more than 10.5
percent per year though in 1963 the increases has fallen to 4.7 percent.
Some rough notion of the change in emphasis in military efforts is
conveyed by reference to two previously cited originating sector trends.
Defense services, which refer in the income originating context only
to personnel expenditures, have been declining since the midfifties;
while sc,,entill,h ser ees, heavily oriented to defense support, have been
rising very rapidly. These two disparate trends reflect the shift in
military emphasis from mass armies to the research and developmental
activities essential for sophisticated weaponry.
3 Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Annual Ecoraossic Indicators for the U.S.S. P.,1964. Table
v1II-5.
4 Ibid.
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FACTORS AFFECTING GROWTH RETARDATION
Economic growth may be analyzed, as in the foregoing passages,
in terms of originating sectors or of uses of national product. It may
also be analyzed in terms of factor inputs into the productive process.
Most simply it can be expressed as the input of labor times the output
per unit of labor, usually designated as labor productivity. If suffi-
cient data is available, the labor productivity expression can be less
ambiguously replaced by other productive inputs-capital, education,
land, organization, and the like.
Beginning with the simplified approach, we note that part of the
explanation for the retardation in growth lies in a less favorable
manpower situation, the rate of increase having dropped to 1.4 from
1.0 percent in the earlier period (table I-4). This trend reflects the
delayed effect of reduced wartime birth rates and the increasing
difficulty of further raising an already high labor participation ratio.
However, the U.S.S.R. is not conspicuous in such a trend with larger
declines in West Germany, Italy, and Japan without commensurate
effects on output. More striking has been the sharp deceleration in
labor productivity advancement, even if cyclical weather influences
are removed. In the earlier period Soviet productivity growth per-
formance ranked at the top just below Germany's; in the later period
it was much below that of Japan and the large continental powers.
It moved in the opposite direction to that of all major industrialized
,countries, except for Germany, with a considerably smaller decline.
TABLE I-4.-Employment and labor productivity as determinants in comparative
growth of GNP
[Average annual rates]
U.S.S.R--------------------------
France
Germany (Federal Republic)---.-
Itally------------------------------
United Kingdom_________________
Japan 2---------------------------
United States_____________________
Employ-
ment
Produc-
tivity I
Employ.
ment
Produc-
tivity I
7.0
1.9
4.5
3.1
4.4
4
5.0
4.1
7.6
2.4
5.9
4.3
5.6
1.6
6.6
5.4
2.4
.4
3.0
2.5
6.1
2. 1
12.6
11.1
2.9
1.0
4.1
2.6
I Index of GNP: Index of employment expressed in man-years. No adjustment has been made for reduc -
times in working hours. In the 2 time periods under consideration there was a larger reduction in annual
hours worked in manufacturing in the U.S.S.R., 13 percent (Narodnoe Ifhoziaistvo SSSR v 1962 Godu p. 488)
than in the other economies--France, 0.6; Germany, 7.8; United Kingdom, 2.5; and the United States
3.2 percent (OECD, Productivity Measurement Review, November 1962, p. 12).
2 Japanese working hours rose by 3.2 percent (Japan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Statistical Survey of
Japan, 1968, p. 11.). Thereforo, In terns of man-hours Soviet productivity accomplishments are relatively
understated, but a precise adjustment cannot be made in the absence of information on hours of work in
non manufacturing occupations for most of the countries in the comparison.
Sources: GNP-See table 1-2.
Employment-Market economies: OECD, Manpower Statistics, 1950-GS. United Nations, Monthly
Bulletin of Statistics, November 1964.
U.S.S.R.-See table VI-2 for civilian employment and appendix table 1, services sources, for military
employment.
An important factor in the decline in productivity advancement has
been the cited sharp drop in the rate of growth in new capital invest-
ment (table 1-3). However, the reduced investment growth rate does
not suffice to explain, the productivity deceleration, as there has been
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1G CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
a sharp reduction in the return on or efficiency of investment. The'
economywide capital-output ratio has risen dramatically for the Soviet
Union in the post-1958 period (table I-5).5 In the period prior to
1958 the U.S.S.R., together with France and Germany, was enjoying
the highest return on its capital outlays. After 1958 the U.S.S.R.
found itself with the lowest return on its investment of any of the'
major industrial powers.
TA13LE I--S -Comparative incremental capital-output ratios
U.S.S.R-------------------.-------------?---------------
France--------------------- ----------------------------
Germany (Federal Republic) -------------------_-----
Italy --------------------------------------------------
United Kingdom --------------------------.-------------
Japan--------------------------------------------------
United States------------------------------------------
1950-58
3.7
4.3
9.6
4.0
(8)
3.5
3.6
4.6
4.4
4.4
3.9
2.6
6.6
12.3
6.6
5.0
(3)
M
7.0
4.5
3.4
I Increase in fixed nonhousing investment required to obtain a unit of increase in gross national product
per employee. A lag of a year between a unit of investment and of output has been assumed. Thus,.
output for the period 1951-58 has been compared with investment for the period 1950-57. Similarly, out-
put for 1959-63 is compared with investment for 1958-62.
The lower the ratio the higher the return on investment or the lower the capital investment per unit of
output. The ratio is increased to the extent that unutilized productive capacity exists. Thus the ap-
parent decrease in the U.S. ratio in the later period reflects the utilization of capacity idled during the 1958
recession.
2 Increase in fixed investment per employee required to obtain a unit of increase in industrial (manu-
facturing, mining, public utilities) production. The same lag is assumed as in the economywide comparison.
8 Not available.
Sources: See table I-3.
The sharply reduced efficiency of investment might be explained
by the dismal farm record of recent years, which has led to a high level
of inefficiently used productive capacity in agriculture and the con
sumer goods industries. However, the agricultural inefficiency
hypothesis is nullified if the same investment efficiency test is limited
to the industrial sector. While the return on industrial investments
was rising in five of the large market economies, in the U.S.S.R. the
amount of new investment required to produce additional output
doubled (doubled capital-output ratio) in the years after 1958.
The rate of increase in the ratio is less if the change in the industrial
labor force is not taken into account, implying worsened performance
in the labor productivity advancement.
The decline in efficiency of industrial investment cannot be ex-
plained by a shift in the composition of investment. [f the 1959
average capital-net output ratios for nine industrial branches are
weighted by the proportions of total industrial investment accruing to
them,' respectively, for the periods 1950-58 and 1958-62,7 the effect of
the shift in investment composition is to change the aggregate capital-
5 While useful as a rough indicator of the efficiency of capital utilization, capital-output ratios have limi-
tations which should be kept in mind. If so aggregative as to cover the entire economy or all of industry,
their ratios may be strongly influenced by differing economic structures with differences between sectors or
industrial branches often larger than those between countries. The use of marginal, rather than average,
ratios may Introduce distortions arising fr in discontinuities in investment trends. Similarly. differences in
capacity utilization on terminal dates may also bias the intercountry comparisons. Even with these limi-
tations in mind, the divergence in trends in capital-output ratios between the U.S.S.R. and the market
economies has been so glaring since 1958 as to be little affected by the qualifications cited above.
3 Data on net output from Vladimir Treml, The 1959 Soeiet Intersect oral Flow Table. vol. 1, Research
Analysis Corp. (TP-137), Table 33. Data on capital stock from Tsentral'noe Staticbesko Upavlenie,
Narodnogo Khoziastvo SSSR v 1960 Godu (Central Statistical Administration, National Economy of the
U.S.S.R. in 1960), p 87.
71961 edition of above statistical compendium, pp. 541 and 545, and 1962 edition, p. 434.
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'output ratio imperceptibly and in. the opposite direction to the
actual trend. Therefore, one must conclude that there must have
been marked increases in marginal capital-output ratios within in-
industrial branches. Preliminary calculations from an. extended
research effort by the author indicate that marginal capital-output
ratios for most industrial branches increased significantly in the
period 1958-63 as compared with the 8 years ending with 1958.
Shifts in investment proportions among branches explained only one-
-seventh of the rise. , in the industry sector ratio. The rises were
particularly large in ferrous metals, coal, chemicals, construction
materials, and consumer goods branches: Calculations from Soviet
'sources, which utilize a gross rather than a net output concept, also
disclose sharp increases in capital requirements per unit of output
for 1960 as compared with 1955.8
The sharp decline in the rate of increase in investment since 1960
has been matched by a rapid upsurge in defense expenditures.' A
similar development occurred during the Korean war mobilization of
,the early. 1950's. -Conversely the, years of reduced military spending
,of the midfifties were those in which investment grew at rapid rates.
Furthermore, the declining numbers of military personnel since 1958
implies that the bulk of the increase in defense outlays has occurred in
nonpersonnel expenditures. The stress within the defense effort has
been on research and development and procurement of sophisticated
weaponry. Unfortunately for the Soviet planners the scarce resources.
in the form of scientists, engineers, managers, and supplies of high
quality materials and- components needed to sustain this emphasis
are identical. with those required to undertake the type of investment
needed for rapid growth.
The investment emphasis in recent years has centered on the sectors
featuring the introduction of new technology; e.g., chemicals, oil and
gas, and complex machinery. Between 1958 and 1963 productive
investment in industry as a whole rose by some 46, percent, but the
.increases in chemicals, oil and gas, and machinery were 226, 52, and
'74 percent, respectively.10 The increased difficulties of design, con-
struction,, and operation of finished facilities in these spheres of new
technology are quantified by the high volume of uncompleted plants;
its compared with an increase of over two-thirds for productive plant
as a whole between 1958 and 1963, the rise was more than double
for machinery andmore than triple for chemicals."
Apparently the competition. for scarce productive factors between
military and investment claims has become more- acute and resolved
in favor of defense needs. This decisionmay have been implemented
both by explicitly higher priorities for military production and by the
.less explicit policy of giving investment claimants. less timely and
coordinated delivery of vital inputs. The rising volume of incom-
pleted projects reflects the latter policy. Even if investment had been
riven a higher resource priority, there would still have been- growth
:retardation resulting from the additional time required to assimilate
new technologies.
8 Akadomiia Nauk 5.9.8.11., ICapital'noe vlozhenile i reservy ikh ispol'zovaniia (U.S.S.R. Academy of
Sciences, Capital Investments and Reserves for their Utilization), 1963, p. 266.
9 Since 1960 rates of increase in investment have averaged only 4 percent, while explicit defense outlays
have risen by more than 10.5 percent per year (9.3 billion rubles in 1960 to 13.3 billion in 1963).
15 Economic Indicators * * *, table IV-5 and Pravda, Jan. 24, 1984.
u Narodnore Khoziaistvo SSS1t v. 1963 Godu, pp. 460-461.
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18 CURRENT ECONOMIC ]INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
COMPARATIVE SIZE AND FUTURE TREND OF GNP
In 1963 the U.S.S.R. was the world's second largest economy with
a GNP approximately 46 percent the size of the United States and,
some 2% times as large as those of the principal Western European
countries (table I-6) . In per capita terms its relative position is less
favorable-about three-eighths of the United States; more than a
third below France, Germany, and the United Kingdom; about equal
to that of Italy; and about 30 percent above Japan's.
TABLE I-.6.-Comparative dollar values of gross national product in 1963
[:N[arket prices]
United States________________________
U.S.S.R------------------------------
Germany (Federal Republic)---------
United Kingdom--------------------
France -------------------------------
Japan --------------------------------
Italy -----------------------------
Ranked by
GNP
(billions)
United States-----------------------
France ------------------------------
Germany (Federal Republic) --------
United Kingdom _________________.__
U.S.S.R----------------------------
Italy------------------------------
Japan-------------------------------
Ranked by
per capita
(dollars)
3, 084
1, 964
1, 838
1, 803.
1,178,
1,107
907
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom: 1963 GNP is originally expressed in the countries' own
currencies. They are obtained from the sources noted in table 1-2. Ratios for converting these estimates
to dollars are initially based on the 1950 ratios in Gilbert and. Kravis, Au International Comparison of Na,' ]o;aal
Products and the Purchasing Power of Currencies, OEEC. Parts, 1954. The geometric means of United
States and European weighted ratios are used. The ratios are moved to 1963 by the quotients of relevant
European price indexes divided by U.B. price indexes. The price indexes can be derived from sources used
to obtain the original estimates.
Japan: The same methodology is followed for Japan. 1.963 yen estimates are obtained from the source
cited in table I-2. A 1960 geometric conversion. ratio has been constructed by Irving Kravis in Journal of
Political Economy, August 1963, p. 327. The ratio is expressed in 1963 prices by the same procedure used
for the OECD economies.
U.S.S.R.: The same methodology is followed for the U.S.S.R. The base year ruble estimate for Soviet
GNP in 1955 is obtained from Morris Bornstein and others, Soviet National Accounts for 1955, Center for
Russian Studies, University of Michigan, 1961, pp. 71-72. The 1955 estimate is moved to 1963 by the GNP
index shown in table I-1. The 1955 geometric conversion ratio has been obtained from Morris Bornstein
"A Comparison of Soviet and United States National Product " Joint Economic Committee, Comparisons
of the United States and Soviet Economies, 1959, pp. 385-3&i. 'T`here is no available Soviet price index for
moving the ratio to 1963 values, but scattered available statistics indicate little change in price levels for
national income, industrial products, and consumer goods. Therefore, the movement in the geometric
ruble-dollar ratio from 1955 to 1963 is assumed to be only a function of changes in U.S. prices.
As a proportion of the U.S. equivalent, Soviet gross national product
increased from a third in 1950 to a maximum of nearly 47 percent in
1961. Since then it has dropped a percentage point as U.S. growth
has exceeded that of the Soviet Union. In absolute terms the U.S.
margin reached a low of about $266 billion in the recession of 1958.
and has subsequently widened to approximately $318 billion in 1963.
The future growth trend of the Soviet economy will be substantially
below that of the early and middle 1950's, but should average some-
what in excess of performances since 1958 under the assumption of
normal agricultural weather conditions. The projections for the
market economies are based upon national target estimates for 1970
submitted to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel
opment and upon official Japanese plan goal (table 1-7). Through
1964 the continental economies and Japan have matched or exceeded
targeted growth rates. The United Kingdom has lagged in its
growth performance with future recoupment dependent on the adop-
tion and successful execution of fundamental structural reforms. If
the United States can maintain the expansion pace of the past 3 years,
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATOR F
it may be able to attain its 4.5-percent target. The lower limit of the
U.S. estimate reflects the average growth rate since 1960.
The Soviet plan revisions of recent years provide. little, basis for
reliance upon official intentions. Perhaps ample guide will be pro-
vided by the yet unpromulgated 5-year plan commencing in 1966.
TABLE I-7.-Connparative projections of GNP
[Annual averages]
Projected
growth rate,
Performance,
1960-64
1960-70
R
U
RS
--------------------------------------------
4.5-5.5
4.6
.
.
----------------------
France---
---
-----------------------------------------------
5.0
5. 0
5
0
Germany (Federal Repub]ic)--------------------------- --------------------
4.1
6
5
.
5.5
ItalY -----------------------------------------------------------
d
d K
.
3.3
2.7
om
ing
Unite
Japan -------------------------------------------------------------------
United States------------------------------------------- --------------------
7.2
4.0-4.5
10.0
4.0
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Projections: For the European OECD countries rates represent official national projections of growth
within the overall OECD target. of 4.5 percent (OECD, Policies for Economic Growth, Paris, 1962, p. 28).
For the United States the upper limit is the official OECD projection and the lower limit is the annual
average since 1960. Range
The projection of Japan is the official plan goal (Japan, Economic Planning Agency, New Long
Economic Plan of Japan, 1961-70, Tokyo, 1961, p. 2).
The U.S.S.R. projection represents a range bounded at the lower limit by the growth of GNP per em-
ployee from 1958-63 of 3.3 percent (table 4) and at the upper limit by the rate which would have been
achieved had agricultural output continued to rise by the 1.5 percent average annual increase of 1958-61-
5 percent. The upper limit productivity estimate has been reduced to 4.8 portent to reflect the continuing
decline in the rise of nonagricultural productivity. When these 2 productivity projections are multiplied
by the 1.1 percent projected growth of the ]abor force, the range of growth of 4.4 to 6.9 percent is obtained
for the period 1964-70. When these estimates are combined with 1900-64 performance, the growth range
shown in the table is derived.
Performance: 1960-63 estimates from sources to table 2; 1964 estimates for market economies from London
Economist, Jan. 12, 1966. U.S.S.R. 1964 estimate based on preliminary calculations of industrial and agri-
cultural performance and assumption of continuation of 1963 rate of growth for other sectors.
In the absence of any official Soviet growth target for 1970, the
extrapolation of their GNP is based on recent trends. On the assump-
tion that 1958 represented a kink in the Soviet growth path the base
for extrapolation lies in the post-1958 period. In view of the non-
repetitive measures adopted during the past decade to increase
labor force participation and the high proportion of women in re-
munerative employment, it is unlikely that employment can be
increased much beyond the annual increment of 1.1 percent projected
for the working age group.12 As for productivity expectations, the
minimum would appear to be established by the economy's 1958-63
performance with its reduced industrial growth rate and stagnation
in agriculture. The upper limit presumes the same industrial growth
rate, but resumption of the 1.5 percent annual growth in agricultural
output which prevailed from 1958 to 1961 before the onset of adverse
weather. factors. The computed Lipper limit has been adjusted
slightly downward to reflect the continual deceleration in the rise of
nonagricultural labor productivity.
Soviet growth superiority among the principal world economies is
now a memory. For the remainder of this decade, Soviet growth will
be little or no faster. than that of France and Italy and considerably
slower than that of Japan. The former wide disparity between Soviet
and United States expansion rates will be reduced to around 1 per-
cent. The absolute difference between the national products of the
13 Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, 1062, p. 521.
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
two economies will continue to widen, even given the lower limit United
States and upper limit Soviet growth projections.
. In the second half of the decade of the 1960's, the Soviet leadership
finds itself faced with proliferating demands on a tightened resource
base. Given reduced labor force Increments and decreased efficiency
of capital inputs, the regime cannot simultaneously upgrade living
standards, maintain a rapid growth rate, and match the United States
in aerospace and nuclear development. Since 1960 both the growth
of consumption levels and the expansion in output have tapered off
significantly. While defense outlays rose sharply until 1963, the
U.S.S.R. was not successful in maintaining parity in sophisticated
weaponry with the United States and has recently moderated the
burgeoning defense effort. The new post-Khrushchev regime has
stressed reemphasis on consumer needs and the resumption of rapid
growth. In addition to this switch in priorities there has been increas-
ing concern about the efficiency with which limited resources are be-
ing utilized. The emerging proposals for thoroughgoing institutional
reform represent a determination to satisfy more claims on a tightened
resource base.
Sector
1959
weights
1958
- 1959
1160
1961
1962
1963
1956-58
Average
1958-53
Average
Industry ----------- ..------
Construction_____________
31.0
10.9
9.1
17.3
8,.5
15.3
8.8
. 8.7
7.1
1.2
7.8
1.2
6.6
2
8
9.0
13
1
7.5
5
3
Agriculture----------------
Transportation--_----__-_
29.2
7.1
10.4
10.8
-5.1
11
6
0.5
9
9
8.6
8
1
-1.2
8
2
.
-5.1
9
8
.
5.7
.
-0.4
Communication--_---____
.7
7.1
.
6.6
.
8.5
.
6.9
.
7.8
.
8.2
12.2
6
0
9.5
7
6
Commerce----------------
Services
4.5
16
9
5.1
2
5.6
2
5
7.2
3
7.7
5.5
5.0
.
4.0
.
6.2
------------------
.
V
.
.
.7
5.9
6.8
3.0
2.1
4.4
Gross national product__
100.0
8.5
4.2
4.9
6.8
4.3
2.6
7.0
4.5
DERIVATION OF SECTO)t INDEXES
Industry-See table 111-7 for indexes for years 1959-63. Estimates for 1958 obtained from table 111-7 of
Annual Economic Indicators for the U.S.S.R. and for 1050 from Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, p. 120.
This index measures civilian production. The inclusion of armaments, production data in recant years
based on evidence in the explicit defense budget for 1962 and 1963 would reinforce the indicated trend.
Construction-Indexes in 1955 prices of state and cooperative (p. 44), and private housing (p. 188-189)
from Tsentral'noe Staticheskoe Upravlenie, Kapitai'noe Stroitel'stvo V S.S SR. (Central Statistical Admin-
istration, Capital Construction in the U.S.S.R.), 1961 for data through 19b0. 1981 and 1962 data from same
author, Narodnoe Khoziaistvo SSSR v 1992 Oodu (the U.S.S.R. National Economy in 1982), pp. 433, 437.
1963 data from 1963 edition of same compendium. Collective farm investment from Vestnik Stalistiki
(Statistical Herald), No. 5, 1964, p. 92. 1950 collective farm investment assumes that productive invest-
ment in 1950 was the same ratio of total investment as in 1954.
Agriculture-The methodology used in constructing the index of net agricultural output in the U.S.S.R.
is the same as that described on p. 98 of the JEC report for 1962, Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, except
fora few minor-changes. For example the commodities covered by the index have been increased with
the inclusion of vegetables and eggs. Also, a change was made in the method of deducting the value of
grain and potatoes used as livestock feed and state purchase prices (July 1958) were used as weights without
adjustment for free market sales. The relative importance of free market sales has declined significantly
in recent years.
Transportation-Norman M. Kaplan, Soviet Transport and Communications Output Indexes, 1988--62,
Rand Corp. (RM-4264-PR), 1964, p. 55. 1963 output obtained by adjusting 1963 link relative for volume
of freight (table VII-2) by 1955-62 relationship between indexes of freight volume and Kaplan's computed
freight output index.
Communications-Norman Kaplan, op. cit. p. 55. 1963 index obtained by adjusting 1963 link relative
for employment (SSSR v Tsifrakh v 1963 Godu, p. 133) by 1955-62 relationship between index of employ-
ment and Kaplan's index of employment and revenue.
Commerce-Index moved by trend of employment in commerce, procurement and supply (table V-A-7) -
times an assumed increase in productivity per worker of 0.7 percent per year. Phis increase in output per
employee was computed for services sectors in the U.S. economy for the period 1929-61 (Victor Fuchs,
Productivity Trends in the Goods and Services Sectors 1919-61, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964,
p 13). In lieu of indigenous Information this trend is also presumed to apply to noncommodity sectors in
the Soviet economy.
Services-Indexes for the services subsectors are based on employment trends, adjusted for the assumed
0.7 percent annual productivity increase. The defense manpower estimates are obtained from Dimensions
ofJ Soviet Economic Power, p. 43, the column on million man-years and from Institute of Strategic Studies,
Ailitary Palance, 1982-63 and Military Balance, 198$-$3, London. The employment indexes for the other
subsectors are obtained from table-
APPENDIX
TABLE 1.-Annual origin sector growth rates for Soviet GNP
(Percentagrsj
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TABLE 2.-Composition of originating sector weights for 1959
[In billions of rubles]
Total
Propor-
Sector
Cash
Incomes
Interest
Depreci-
Land
factor
tion of
incomes
in kind
return
ation
rent
pay-
GNP
ments
Industry-----------------------
29.1
----------
6.0
4.7
_
31.0
Agriculture____________________
15.0
13.0
3.2
2.1
4.3
37.6
29.2
Construction___________________
12.6
__________
.4
.6
_
6
10.6
Transportation________________
4.7
_
1.6
_
1
7.1
Communications_______________
.6
________ _
.2
.1
.9
9.7
Commerce_____________________
4.8
__________
.6
.4
-
6.8
5.4
Services________________________
17.0
2.5
3.6
3.2
_
2
16.9
Gross national product- _
79.3
15.6
16.7
12.7
4.3
128.6
100.0
The derivation of the component estimates and the methodology
employed will be found in a separate publication by the author on
"Derivation of 1959 Value Added Weights for Originating Sectors of
Soviet Gross National Product."
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CHAPTER II
POPULATION
GENERAL TRENDS
A declining birth rate is perhaps the most noteworthy development
in Soviet demography in recent years. During the early 1950's,,
there were about 27 births per 1,000 population in the Soviet Union.
By the end of the decade, the birth rate had declined to 25. Since
1960, however, the birth rate has declined quite rapidly and in 1964
stood at 19.7, 21 percent below its 1959 level. Twenty-eight percent
of the 1959 to 1964 decline occurred between 1963 and 1964.
Several factors appear to be working to reduce the birth rate.
Marital fertility has probably been declining at least since 1950, but
because the proportion married among females presumably rose in
response to the rising sex ratio, the birth rate declined only slightly.
By 1960, however, there were about equal numbers of men and women
in the prime reproductive ages and further increases in the sex ratio
could not significantly increase the proportion married among females
in these ages. Thus, further declines in marital fertility would
necessarily cause birth rates to fall.
One other factor which serves to accelerate the decline in the birth
rate since 1960 is that the population born during World War II, when
birth rates were low, is now reaching childbearing age. This means
that the population in these ages-and consequently the birth rate-is
declining. For example, at the beginning of 1961, the female popu-
lation 20 to 24 years old, the age group which has the highest fertility
rate, was estimated to have numbered 11 million persons. But, by
1964, the number in this age group had declined by 26 percent, to an
estimated 8.2 million.
Although the death rate in the Soviet Union has also declined, it
has not declined enough to counteract the declining birth rate. This
has meant that the natural increase rate has been falling. Only a
sharp rise in the fertility of women, which would contravene prevailing
trends, could prevent a declining growth rate. The total population
of the Soviet Union has increased, of course and unless the birth rate
falls substantially below the levels postu'ated for the projections
presented in tables II-7 to II-14, the increase should continue. The
projections show the population as reaching 245 to 261 million by
1975 and 259 to 299 million by 1985. The growth rate, however, is
expected to decline because as long as persons born during World
War II are in the reproductive ages, the age structure of the Soviet
population will serve to depress the birth rate.
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24 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
PROJECTED POPULATION OF SCHOOL AGE AND "COLLEGE AGE"
At the beginning of 1964, the Soviet Union had an estimated 18.6
million children aged 7 to 10 years, 17.6 million children aged 11 to 14
years, and 10.7 million adolescents aged 15 to 17 years. The number
of children of primary school age (7 to 10 years) is expected to increase
during the remainder of the present decade to a peak of about 20
million. There is expected to be a decline in the size of this group
during the 1970's, however, as children born during the 1960's reach
school age. The number of children of intermediate school age (11 to
14 years) is also expected to increase to about 20 million by the early
1970's. Thereafter it should decline. The population. of secondary
school age, which numbered 10.7 million at the beginning of 1964, is
expected to increase during the remainder of the 1960's and into the
1970's. By 1976, there are expected to be about 15 million persons
aged 15 to 17 years in the Soviet Union. Toward the end of the
1970's, however, this group will be comprised of those born during the
1960's and the number is expected. to drop.
The number of persons 20 to 24 years old, or the "college age"
popu~lation, has been declining. In 1961 there were an estimated 21.9
million persons in this age range; in 1964 there were only 16.4 million,
a decline of about :25 percent. By 1967, when the projections show
this population as reaching its lowest point, there are expected to be
only 11.9 million persons of "college age," a 46-percent decline from
the 1961 level. This decline is related to the movement into this
age. group of persons born during World War II. After 1967, the
projections point to a fairly rapid recovery, although the age group is
not expected to attain its 1961 level before 1975:
PROJECTED MALE POPULATION OF MILITARY AGE
Males born during World War Ii began reaching military age
during the early 1960's. As it consequence, the number of males
17 to 19 years old dropped. from 6.1 million in 1959 to a low of 3.2
million during 1962 and 1963. By the. beginning of 1964, however, the
population in this group had increased to an estimated 3.9 million,
but the projections show the number of males in the military ages
as exceeding the 1959 figure only after 1968. The increase in the
size of this group is expected to continue until the end of the 1970's
when it will reach a high of 7.7 million, and then drop somewhat
during the 1980's. The number of males in the broader range of
military ages, 17 to 34 years, declined by about 10 percent between
1959 and 1064, from 33.7 million to 30.8 million. From its 1964
low, it is expected to increase gradually, reaching 33 million by 1970,
40 million by 1980, and between 41 and 43 million by 1985.
PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE "ABLE-BODIED AGE"
Males aged 16 to 59 years and females aged 16 to 54 years con-
stitute the able-bodied ages in the Soviet Union. Estimates indicate
that during 1959 and 1960 the: population in this age group declined
by about 0.4 million and that from 1961 through 1963 the group
grew less rapidly than it had prior to 1959. Thus, at the beginning
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 25
of 1964, there were an estimated 121.7 million persons of "able-
bodied age" in the Soviet Union, an increase of only 2 million over
the 1959 figure. During the 5-year period, 1966 through 1970, an
increase of nearly 10 million is projected, and the population of
"able-bodied age" is shown as reaching 134.9 million at the beginning
of 1971. By 1980, the population in this group is expected to number
157 million, and, by 1985, between 159 and 164 million.
The projections point to persistently larger increases for men than
for women of "able-bodied age." In 1959, because of the deficit of
men due to World War II, women 16 to 54 years old outnumbered men
16 to 59 years old by about 9.7 million, despite the fact that the age
span for men in this group is 5 years longer than that for women. By
1964, there were 0.6 million fewer women but 2.6 more men of "able-
bodied age" than there were in 1959. By the mid-1970's, there are
expected to be as many men as women in the "able-bodied ages," and
by 1985, according to the projections, men in this group should out-
number women by about 8.5 million.
TABLE II-1.-Population of the U.S.S.R., by urban and rural residence, selected
years, 1913-65
[Population figures in millions]
Territory and dates
Population
Percent
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
139.3
24.8
114. .6
100
18
82
1917___________________________________
143.5
25.8
117.7
100
18
82
1919_____________________
138.0
21.5
116.5
100
16
84
1920-----------------------------------
136.8
20.9
116.9
100
15
85
Dec. 17,1928__________________________
147.0
26.3
120.7
100
18
82
1929-----------------------------------
163.4
28.7
124.7
100
19
81
1937_______________________
163.8
46.6
117.2
100
28
72
1938______________________
167.0
50.0
117.0
100
30
70
Jan. 17,1939__________________________
170.6
56.1
114.6
100
33
67
1940 territory: Jan. 1, 1939 i_______________
190.7
60.4
130.3
100
32
68
Postwar territory:
1913___________________________________
159.2
28.5
130.7
100
18
82
1917___________________________________
163.0
20.1
133.9
100
18
82
Jan. 1,1950___________________________
178.5
69.4
100.1
100
39
61
Jan. 1,1961---------------------------
181.6
73.0
108.0
100
40
60
Jan. 1,1952___________________________
184.8
76.8
108.0
100
42
58
Jan. 1,1983___________________________
188.0
80.2
107.8
100
43
67
Jan. 1,1964___________________________
191.0
83.6
107.4
100
44
56
194.4
86.3
108.1
100
44
56
Jan. 1,1958___________________________
197.9
88.2
109.7
100
45
55
Jan.1,l9b7---------------------- ___
201.4
91.4
110.0
100
46
55
Jan. 1,1958___________________________
204.0
98.6
100.3
100
47
53
Jan. 1b,1959__________________________
208.8
100.0
108.8
100
48
52
Jan. 1,1960___________________________
212.3
103.8
108.5
100
49
51
Jan. 1,1961___________________________
216.1
108.3
107.8
100
50
60
Jan. 1,1962___________________________
219.7
111.8
107.9
100
51
49
Jan. 1,1983---------------------------
223.1
115.1
108.0
100
62
48
Jan. 1,1904___________________________
220.2
118.0
107.7
100
62
48
Jan. 1,1968___________________________
229.1
121.0
107.5
100
53
47
1 The figures shown are offioial Soviet estimates for the territory of the U.S.S.R. including the western
oblasts of the Ukraine and Byelorussia Moldavia, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The figures presumably
apply to the Interwar territory ad]usied for the annexations of 1936 and 1940, but exclude the population
I. the territory retroceded to Poland at the end of the war.
Source: 1913-63: Tsontral'noye statisticheskoye upravleniye pri Soveto ministrov SSSR Narodnoye
khozyayetvo SSSR v 1966 y6du, etatieticheskty yezhegodnik (The National Economy of the U.S.S.11. in 1962, A
Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1963 pp. 7-8. 1964-65: ------ SSSR v tat ffrakh v 1904 9odu, Kratkiy static.
icheskty sbornik (The U.S.S.R. in .l tyures in 1963, A Short Statistical Compilation), Moscow, 1965, p. 7.
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26 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE-II 2.-Birth, death, and natural increase rates for the U.S.S.R., selected years
t 91,?3-6x1
Year
Birth
Death
Natural
Increase
Year
Birth
Death
Natural
increase
1913__________
47.0
30.2
16.8
1954__________
26.8
8.9
17.7
1926___------- -
44.0
20.3
23.7
1955______-_
__
25.7
8.2
17.5
1928__._______
44.3
23.3
21.0
1966_
__
25.2
7.6
17.6
1937__________
38.7
18.9
1.9.8
1957__________
25.4
7.8
17.6
1938 ----------
37.6
17.5
20.0
1958 ----------
25.3
7.2
18.1
1939__________
36.5
17.3
19.2
1959__________
25.0
7.6
17.4
1940__________
31.3
18.1
1.3.2
1960__________
24.9
7.1
17.8
1950 ----------
26.7
9.7
1.7.0
1961__________
23.8
7.2
18.6
1.051 -----------
27.0
9.7
1.7.3
1962 ----------
22.4
7.5
14.9
1952__________
26.5
9.4
1.7.1
1963 ----------
21.2
7.2
14.0
1953 ----------
25.1
9.1
1.6.0
1964 ----------
19.7
7.0
12.7
Source: Tsentral'noye statisticheskoye u ravleniyye pri Sovete ministrov S88R Narodnoye khozyaystvo
SSSR v 1982 godu, statisticheskiy yezhegodnik (The National Economy of the U.S.S.P. in 1962, A Statistical
Yearbook), Moscow, 1963, p. 30; ------- Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1965 godu, statisticheskiy yezhegodnik
(The National Economy ofthe U.S.S.R. in 1962, A Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1905, p 104; ------- SSSR
v tsifrakh v 1964 godu, Kratkiy statisticheskiy sbornik (The U. S.S.R. in Figures in 196.1? A Short Statistical Com-
pilation), Moscow, 1965, p. 14.
TABLE 11-3.-Estimated and projected popui!ation of the U.S.S.R. and the United
States, selected years, 1918-85
[Unless otherwise noted, figures relate to July 1. Beginning with 1939, the figures for the United states
include Armed Forces overseas; prior to 1962, they exclude Alaska and Hawaii]
[in millions]
Population of the U.S.S. R.
U.S. population as a percent
In-
Population
of the Soviet population
in--
Year
of the
Present
Pre World
United
States
Present
Pre-World
territory
War 11
territory
War II
territory
territory
1913-----------------------------
159.2
1:19.3
97.2
61.1
69.8
1917------------------------------
--------------
143.5
103.3
--------------
72.0
1920-------------------------.----
--------------
136.8
106.5
--------------
77.9
1926-----------------------------
--------------
1147.0
117.4
--------------
79.9
1929------------- ----- ---?------
---------------
153.4
121.8
--------------
79.4
1939-__--------------- -----------
-------------
21'70.6
131.0
--------------
76.8
1941-----------------------------
200.0
--------------
133.4
66.7
--------------
19,50-----------------------------
180.1
---------------
162.3
84.8
--------------
1984------------------__-?--_...
227.9
---------------
192.1
84.3
--------------
1970:
A---------------------------
246.4
211.4
85.8
--------------
B ---------------------------
244.6
---------------
209.0
85.4
--------------
C - ---------------------------
241.4
---------------
206.1
85.4
--------------
D---------------------------
239.3
---------------
205.9
86.0
--------------
1980:
A ----------------------------
281.4
---------------
262.1
89.6
--------------
B ----------------------------
274.2
---------------
245.3
89.5
--------------
C----------------?-----------
261.9
---------------
236.5
90.3
--------------
D---------------------------
252.7
233.1
92.2
--------------
1985:
A- ---------------------
299.3
275.6
92.1
--------------
B ---------------------------
290.9
---------------
266.3
91.5
--------------
C ----------------------------
273.2
---------- -----
254.0
93.0
--------------
D ----------------------------
258.9
---------------
248.0
95.8
--------------
I Census of Dec. 17, 1926.
2 Census of Jan. 17, 1939.
Source: U.S.S.R,: 1913-39: Tsentral'noye statisticheskoye uppravleni a pri Sovete ministrov S88R
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 196.3 godw, statistfcheskiy yezhegodnik (The National Eeodomy o/the U.S.S.R.
in 1962, A Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1963, pp. 7-8. 1941: Estimate. 1950-85: U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Protections of the Popirlativn of the U.S.S.R., by Age and Sex: 1964-86,
by James W. Brackett, International Population Reports. Series P-91, No. 13, Washington, 1964 p. 35.
See table 11-7 for an explanation.of the projection series.
United States: 1913-41: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the
United States, Colonial Times to 1957, Washington, 1960, p. 7. 1950 and 1964: Estimates of the Population
of the United States, Jan. 1, 1950, to Jan. 1, 1965, Current Population Reports, series P-25, No. 299,Wash-
ington, 1065. 1070-85: Protections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1964, to 1985
by Jacob S. Siegel, Meyer Zitter, and Donald S. Akers, Current Population Reports, series?P-25, No. 286,
Washington, 1964, p. 41. All four series assume that mortality will decline and that there will be 300,000 lm-
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 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 27
migrants annually. The fertility assumptions, expressed in terms of the maternal gross reproduction rate
are given below. For comparison, the maternal gross reproduction rate in 1962 was 171.
SerfesA
Series B
Series C
Series D
1965---------------------------_------______---_--------
175
184
151
151
1970-----------------------------------------------------
172
157
139
136
1975 ----------------------------- -----------------------
170
157
139
131
1980-------------------------------? -
168
158
130
126
1985---------------------------------- -----------?-----
166
164
137
123
TABLE II-4.-Birth and death rates for the U.S.S.R. and the United States, 1955-63
[Rate per 1,000 population]
1955------------- ----------------------?_----
1958--------------------------------------------
1957--------------------------------------------
1958--------------------------------------------
1959--------------------------------------------
1980-------------------
1981------------------------------------------
1962----------------------------------------
1963---------4 ----------------------------------
1964--------------------------------------------
United
States
United
States
25.7
25.0
8.2
9.3
25.2
25.2
7.6
9.4
25.4
25.3
7.8
9.6
25.3
24.6
7.2
9.5
25.0
24.3
7.8
9.4
24.9
23.7
7.1
9.5
23.8
23.3
7.2
9.3
22.4
22.4
7.5
9.5
21.2
21.6
7.2
9.6
19.7
21.3
7.0
9.4
Source: U.S.S.R.: Table II-2.
United States: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United
States: 1962, Washington, 1962, p. 52; _--___ Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1964, Washington,
1984, p. 48; ------- Current Population Report, Series P-25, No. 30, p. 1.
TABLE II-5.-Populations of cities in the U.S.S.R. with 1964 populations of 500,000
inhabitants or more, and of all Republic capitals, 1939, 1959, 1963, and 1964
(Population figures in thousands. Figures for 1939 presumably relate to the beginning of the year; those for
1969 to the census of Jan. 15. Figures for other years are official estimates for Jan. 1]
City
Population
Percent change
1939
1959
1963
1964
1939-84
1959-64
1963-64
1. Moscow----------------------------
4,542
,
6,039
6 354
6,388
i
40.6
5.8
0.5
2. Leningrad--------------------------
3
385
3,321
,
3,552
3,807
6.6
8.8
1.5
3. Kiyev------------------------------
847
1
104
1,248
1,292
52.5
17.0
3.5
4. Baku_______________________________
775
971
1,086
1,118
44.0
14.9
2.8
6. Gor'kiy____________________________
844
942
1 042
1068
65.5
13.2
2.3
6. Tashkent---------------------------
550
912
1,029
1,061
92.9
18.3
3.1
7. Khar'kov---------------------------
833
934
1,008
1,048
25.8
12.2
4.2
8. Novosibirsk________________________
404
886
990
1,013
160.7
14,3
2.3
9. Kuybyshev------------------------
390
806
901
928
137.9
15.1
3.0
10. Sverdlovsk-------------------------
423
779
869
897
112.1
15.1
3.2
11. Donetsk----------------------------
466
699
774
794
70.4
13.6
2.6
12. Chelyabinsk------------------------
273
689
767
790
180.4
14.7
3.0
13. Tbilisi------------------------------
519
895
768
786
51.4
13.1
2.3
14. Dnepropetrovsk____________________
527
860
738
755
43.3
14.4
2.3
15. Perm'------------------------------
306
629
722
745
143.5
18.4
3.2
16. Kazan'-----------------------------
398
047
725
743
86.7
14.8
2.5
17. Odessa-----------------------------
602
867
709
721
19.8
8.1
1.7
18. Rostov-na-Donu--------------------
510
600
689
706
38.4
17.7
2.5
19. Omsk------------------------------
289
581
674
702
142.9
20.8
4.2
20. Volgograd__________________________
445
592
663
684
53.7
15.5
3.2
21. Minsk------------------------------
237
509
644
675
184.8
32.6
4.8
22. Saratov_____________________________
372
581
644
865
78.8
14.5
3.3
23. Ufa---------------------------------
258
547
630
651
152.3
19.0
3.3
24. Riga________________________________
348
580
632
845
85.3
11.2
2.1
25. Yerevan----------------------------
204
509
578
607
107.5
19.3
5.0
26. Alma-Ata--------------------------
222
466
580
607
173.4
33.1
4.7
27. Voronezh___________________________
344
448
535
658
62.2
24.8
4.3
28. Zaporozh'e-------------------------
282
435
507
529
87.6
21.6
4.3
20. Krasnoyarsk-----------------------
190
412
483
621
174.2
26.5
7.9
30. Frunze-----------------------------
93
220
328
342
267.7
65.5
4.9
31. Tallin------------------------------
160
282
311
320
100.0
13.5
2.9
32. Dushanbe__________________________
83
224
276
298
250.0
33.0
8.0
33. Vil'nyus----------------------------
215
238
271
282
31.2
19.5
4.1
34. Kishinev---------------------------
112
216
254
267
138.4
23.6
5.1
35. Ashkhabad-------------------------
127
170
207
215
69.3
26.5
3.9
Source: 1939, 1959, and 1963: Tsentral'noyo statisticheskoye upravlcntye pri Sovete ministrov SSSR,
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 godu, statisticheskiy yezhegodnik (The National Economy of the
USSR in 1962, a Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1053, p. 25. 1964: _---_-, SSSR v tsifrakh v 1963 godu,
Kratkty statisticheskiy sbornik (U.S.S.R. in Figures in 1968, A Short Statistical Compilation), Moscow,
1964, pp. 16-17.
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28 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-6.--Average family size in the U.S.S.R., by nationality and urban and
rural residence, 1959
[Nationality groups are ranked according to average family size]
Percent
Average family size
Nationality
Percent
distribution
urban
of the total
population
Total
Urban
Rural
All nationalities---------------------
48
1100.0
3.7
3.5
3.9
Tadzhik-----------------------------------
21
0.7
5.2
5.1
5.2
Uzbek-------------------------------------
22
2.9
5.0
4.9
5.0
Turkmen----------------------------------
25
0.6
5.0
4.7
5.1
Azerbaydzhan_____________________________
35
1.4
4.8
4.6
4.9
Armenian---------------------------------
67
1.3
4.7
4.4
5.0
Kazakh------------------------------------
24
1.7
4.6
4.7
4.6
Kirgiz-------------------------------------
11
0.7
4.5
4.3
4.6
Cleorglan-----------------------------------
36
13
1.3
1
1
4.0
3
9
3.8
6
3
4.1
4
0
Meldavian---------------------------------
Belorussian ---------------------------------
32
.
3.8
.
3.7
.
3.4
.
3.7
Russian-----------------------------------
58
54.6
3.6
3.5
3.7
Lithuanian ---------------------------------
36
1.1
3.6
3.4
3.6
Ukrainian---------------------------------
39
17.8
3.5
3.3
3.6
Latvian-----------------------------------
48
0.7
3.1
3.0
3.2
Estonian----------------------------------
47
0.5
3.0
3.1
3.0
i Because about 10 percent of the population are members of nationality groups other than those listed, the
distribution does not add to the total. Data on average family size for other nationalities are not reported.
Source: Tsentral'noye statisticheskoye upravleniye pri Sovete ministrov SSSR Itogi Vessoyuznoy
perepiai n?seleniya 1959 coda, SSSR (The Results of the All-Union Census of Population 1959, U.S.S.R.),
Moscow, 1902, pp. 184 if. and 252.
TABLE II-7.-Estimated and projected population of preschool age in the U.S.S.R.:
1969-86
[Ian. 1 figures in millions. Figures were independently romided without adjustment to group totals. The
letters A, B, C, and D denote the projection series]
Under 7 years
Under 3 years
3 to 6 years
Year
A , I
B I
?
])
--
A
- ffffff
BI
C
D
AI
BI
C
D
- '
1959_______________________
- -----
33.2
14.8
18.4
1960_______________________
33.7
15.0
18.6
1961 -----------------------
34.4
15.3
19.1
1962_______________________
34.6
15.3
19.3
1963-----------------------
34.6
15.0
19.6
1964-----------------------
34.5
-
14.5
-
20.0
20
1
1965 ------------------------
34.3
34.1
33.7
-
33.
~
14.2
14.1
13.7
13.6
.
19.8
1966_______________________
1967
33.0
33
5
33.5
32
8
32.8
31
6
32.3
9
30
14.1
14
0
13.7
4
13
12.9
12
2
12.5
11
6
19.5
e
_______________________
1968_______________________
.
32.0
.
32.0
.
30.3
.
29.3
.
13.9
.
13.1
.
11.8
.
10.9
^
19.1
18.9
18.5
1969_______________________
32.5
31.3
29.0
27.6
13.8
13.0
11.5
10.5
18.7
18.3
17.6
17.2
1970_______________________
32.4
30.8
28.0
20.2
13.8
12.9
11.3
10.1
18.6
17.9
16.7
16.0
1971_______________________
32.5
30.5
27.0
24.7
14.0
13.0
11.1
9.8
18.5
17.6
15.8
14.8
1972-----------------------
32.6
30.4
26.5
23.8
14.2
13.1
11.1
9.6
18.3
17.3
15.4
14.2
1973_______________________
32.9
30.4
28.2
23. 1
14.6
13.3
11.1
9.5
18.3
17.2
15.1
13.7
1974-----------------------
33.4
30.7
26.0
22.6
14.9
13.5
11.1
9.3
18.5
17.2
14.9
13.2
1975_______________________
34.0
31.0
25.9
22.6
15.3
13.8
11.2
9.1
18.7
17.3
14.8
12.9
1976-----------------------
34.8
31.5
26.0
21.7
15.7
14.0
11.3
9.1
19.1
17.5
14.7
12.7
1977_______________________
35.6
32.1
28.2
21.6
16.0
14.3
11.4
9.1
19.6
17.8
14.7
12.4
1978_______________________
36.4
32.7
26.4
21.6
16.3
14.6
11.7
9.3
20.0
18.1
14.8
12.2
1979_______________________
37.2
33.3
26.8
21.6
16.7
14.9
11.9
9.5
7
20.5
2
18.4
18
8
14.9
15
1
12.1
12
1
1980_______________________
38.0
34.0
27.2
21.8
17.0
15.2
12.2
9.
1.0
.
.
.
1981_______________________
38.8
34.7
27.7
22.2
17.4
15.5
12.4
9.9
21.5
19.2
15.3
12.2
1982_______________________
39.6
35.3
28.3
22.6
17.7
15.8
12.6
10.1
21.9
19.6
15.6
12.11
1983_
_______
_________
_
40. 4
360
.
28.8
23.1
18.0
16.1
12.9
10.3
22.4
20.0
16.0
12.E
____
_
_________
____________
1984
41.1
36
.7
29.3
23. 5
18.3
16.3
13.0
10.4
22.8
20.4
16.3
13.
__
1985_______________________
41.7
37.3
29.8
23.9
18.5
16.5
13.2
10.6
23.3
20.8
16.6
13.1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Population of the
U.S.S.R., By Age and Sex: 1964-85, by James W. Brackett, International Population Reports, series P-91,
No. 13 Washington, 1964. The assumptions used. in the preparation of the projections are as follows:
Fertility: Series A: That the maternal gross reproduction rate will rise from its level of about 125
in 1963 to 130 in 1964 and will continue to rise by a constant annual amount until 1974, after which it will
stabilize at 140. Series B: That the maternal gross reproduction rate will remain constant at the 1963
level throughout the projection period. Series C: That the maternal gross reproduct on rate will de-
cline to 115 in 1964 and will continue to decline by a constant annual amount until 1974, after which it
will stabilize at 100. Series D: That the maternal gross reproduction rate will decline to 110 in 1964
and that it will continue to decline by a constant annual amount until 1074, after which it will stabilize
at 80.
Mortality: That age-specific death rates will decline in accordance with postwar international experi-
ence.
ApprWftdi'F RVNft'@ 20
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CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 29
TABLE II-8. Estimated and projected population of school age in the U.S.S.R.,
1969-86
[Jan. 1 figures in millions. Figures were independently rounded without adjustment to group totals.
The letters A, B, C, and D denote the projection series
7 to 17 years
7 to 10 years
11 to 14 years
15 to 17 years
Year
A
B
C
D
A.
CI
D
AIB
CID
A
B
C
D
1969____________
1960____________
36.3
37.1
17.1
17.8
11.3
13.2
8.0
6.3
1961 ------------
1962____________
39.1
42.0
17.8
18.1
14.9
16.1
6.4
7.7
1963 ------------
1964____________
44.6
46.8
18.4
18.6
17.1
17.6
9.2
10.7
1966____________
1986____________
48.6
49.9
19.1
19.3
17.7
18.1
11.8
12.6
1967 ------------
1968____________
60.9
61.8
19.6
19.9
18.3
18.5
13.0
13.3
1989____________
1970____________
62.3
62.6
20.0
19.8
19.0
19.2
13.3
13.6
1071____________
62.7
19.4
19.5
13.8
1972____________
63.0 62.9 52.6 62.3
19.0 18.8 18.6 18.
19.9
14.1
1973_
62.9 52.6 61.7 51.3
18.7 18.3 17.6 17.1
20.0
14.3
62.8 52.1 50.9 50.2
18.5 17.9 16.7 16.0
19.7
14.6
1976____________
62.6 61.7 50.0 48.9
18.4 17.5 15.8 14.8
19.4
14.8
1976____________
62.3 51.1 48.8 47.4
18.3 17.3 15.4 14.2
19.0 18.8 18.6 18.3
16.0
1977____________
52.0 50.4 47.5 45.7
18.3 17.1 16.0 13.6
18.7 18.3 17.6 17.1
16.0
1978____________
61.7 49.7 46.2 43.9
18.4 17.1 14.8 13.2
18. 5 17.9 16.7 16.0
14.7
1979 ------------
61.4 49.0 44.8 42.0
18.7 17.2 14.7 12.0
18.4 17.6 15.8 14.8
14.3
1980____________
51.4 48.6 43.6 40.1
19.1 17.5 14.7 12.8
18.3 17.2 15.3 14.1
14.0 13.9 13.6 13.3
1981____________
51.7 48.4 42.6 38.4
19.6 17.7 14.7 12.4
18.3 17.1 16.0 13.6
13.9 13.6 12.8 12.4
1982____________
52.3 48.4 41.6 38.7
20.0 18.1 14.8 12.2
18.4 17.1 14.8 13.2
18.9 13.2 12.0 11.3
1983____________
52.9 48.6 41.2 36.8
20.6 18.4 14.9 12.1
18.7 17.2 14.7 12.9
13.7 13.0 11.6 10.8
1984____________
53.7 49.0 41.1 36.1
21.0 18.8 15.1 12.1
19.1 17.5 14.7 12.6
13.6 12.8 11.3 10.4
1985 ------------
54.8 49.6 41.2 34.7
21.4 19.1 15.3 12.2
19.6 17.7 14.7 12.4
13.7 12.8 11.1 10.0
TABLE II-9.-Estimated and projected population of college age in the U.S.S.R.,
1959-85
Year
Population
20 to 24
years old
Year
Population
20 to 24
years old
1969---------------------------------
20,3
1973---------------------------------
21.5
1960---------------------------------
21.4
1074 ---------------------------------
21.8
1961---------------------------------
21.9
1976---------------------------------
22.3
:1962---------------------------------
21.6
1976 ---------------------------------
22.7
:1963---------------------------------
19.3
1977 ---------------------------------
22.9
1964---------------------------------
18.4
1978---------------------------------
23.3
:1965---------------------------------
14.0
1979---------------------------------
28.8
:1966---------------------------------
12.4
1980---------------------------------
24.1
:1967---------------------------------
11.9
1981--------------------------------
24.5
1988---------------------------------
13.0
1982--------------------------------
24.7
1969--------------------------------
16.2
1983---------------------------------
24.6
1970--------------------------------
17.3
1984---------------------------------
24.3
1971---------------------------------
19.2
1985---------------------------------
123.8
11972---------------------------------
20.6
1 Series B projection. The figures for series A, C, and D are 24,000,000, 23,400,000, and 23,300,000,
respectively.
Source: Same as table II-7.
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30 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-10.-Estimated and projected male population of military age in the
U.S.S.R., 1959-85
[Jan. 1 figures in millions. Figures were independently rounded without aldustment to group totals. The
letters A, B, C, and D denote the projection series]
Year and series
17 to 84 years
17 to 19 years
17 years
18 years
19 years
--------------------------
1959
33.7
6.1
1.9
2.0
2.2
---
1960
------------------------
33.4
5.1
1.2
1.9
2.0
-----
-----------------------
1961
32.6
4.D
9
1.2
1.9
------
1962
---------------
31.8
3. 2
1.0
.9
1.2
---
1963
--------------------
31.1
3.2
1.3
1.0
.9
---------
1964
----------------------- .
30.8
3.9
1.6
1.3
1.0
------
--------------------------
1965
30.8
4.6
1.8
1.6
1.3
---
---------------------
1966
31.1
5.4
2.0
1.8
1.6
--------
--------------------------
1967
-
31.5
6.0
2.1
2.0
1.8
---
--------------------------
1968
31.9
6.4
2.2
2.1
2.0
---
--------------------------
1969
32.3
6.6
2.3
2.2
2.1
---
__________________________
1970
32.9
6.8
2
2.3
2.2
___
--------------------------
1971
33.4
6.8
2.2
2.3
2.3
---
--------------------------
1972-
35.8
6.9
2.4
2.2
2.3
--
-------------------
1973
35.9
7.0
2.4
2.4
2.2
----------
__________________________
1974
34.0
7.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
___
1975
------------------------
34.2
7.3
2.5
2.4
2.4
---
-------------------------
1976
34.7
7.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
----
--------------------------
1977
-
35.5
7.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
---
--------------------------
1978
30.8
7.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
---
---------------------------
1979
38.4
7.7
2.5
2.6
2.6
--
1980-----------------------------
39.8
7.5
2.4
2.5
2.6
1981 ------------------------------
40.9
7.3
2,4
2.4
2.5
1982:
---------.-----------
A
41.7
7.2
2.4
-------
B---------------------------
4;1.6
7.1
2,3
4
2
2.4
C ---------------------------
41.4
6.9
2,1
.
D---------------------------
41.3
6.8
2,0
1983:
------------------------
A
42.8
7.1
2,4
2.4
----
------------------------
B
-
1
6.9
2~ 3
2.3
2
4
-
-
C---------------------------
41.7
6.5
2.0
2.1
.
D------------------------
41.6
6.3
1,9
2.0
1984:
A
---------------------
42.6
7.1
2.3
2.4
2.4
-------
---------------
B
42.3
6.8
2,2
2.3
2.3
------------
------------------------
C
41.6
6,2
2.0
2.0
2.1
----
D----------------------------
41.3
6.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
1985:
--------------
-
A
422.8
7. .0
2.3
2.3
2.4
-----------
-
---------------------..-_
B
42.3
6.6
2.2
2.2
2.3
----
----------------------
C
41.4
6.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
----
-----
D------------------ ---
40.3 '
5.5
1.8
1.8
1.9
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. 31
TABLE II-11.-Estimated and projected population of "able-bodied age" in the
U.S.S.R., 1959-85
[In millions. Figures were independently rounded without adjustment to group totals. Population
figures refer to Jan. 1. The letters A, B, 0, and D denote the projection series]
Both sexes
Male
Female
Year and series
Population
Population
Populatin
0
of"able-
Net change
18 to 59
Net change
16 to 64
Net change
bodied age"
years
years
1969_______________
119.7
-0.3
55.0
0.1
64.7
-0.5
1960_______________
119.4
-.1
55.2
.3
64.2
-.3
1961_______________
119.3
.4
55.5
.5
63.9
-.1
119.7
.9
55.9
.8
63.8
.1
1963_______________
120.6
1.2
56.7
.9
63.9
.2
1984_______________
121.7
1.6
57.6
1.1
64.1
.4
1966_______________
123.3
1.7
68.8
1.2
64.6
.5
1968_______________
125.0
1.8
60.0
1.3
65.0
.5
1967_______________
128.7
1.9
61.2
1.3
65.5
.6
1988_______________
128.6
2.1
62.6
1.3
66.1
.7
1969_______________
130.6
1.9
63.8
1.2
66.8
.7
1970_______________
132.5
2.3
85.0
1.3
67.6
1.0
1971_______________
134.0
2.3
66.3
1.3
88.5
1.0
1972_______________
137.2
2.4
67.7
1.4
69.6
1.0
1973_______________
139.6
2.6
69.0
1.5
70.8
1.1
1974_______________
142.2
2.7
70.6
1.6
71.6
1.1
1976_______________
144.8
2.7
72.1
1.6
72.7
1.1
1976_______________
147.6
2.8
73.7
1.7
73.8
.1.1
1977_______________
160.4
2.6
75.4
1.6
74.9
.9
1978_______________
162.9
2.1
77.1
1.5.
75.8
.6
1979_______________
155.0
1.9
78.6
1.5
76.4
.4
1980_______________
156.9
1.5
80.1
1.4
76.8
.1
1981:
A_____________
158.6
1.7
81.6
1.5
77.0
.2
B_____________
168.4
1.5
81.5
1.4
76.9
.1
C_____________
168.1
1.2
81.3
1.2
76.7
--------------
D_____________
157
.9
1.0
81.2
1.1
76.7
--------------
A---- --------
160.1
1.5
83.0
1.4
77.1
------------
--------------
B-------------
-------------
159.7
1.3
82.8
1.3
76.9
-------------
---
C-------------
169.0
.9
82.4
1.1
76.5
-.2
D-------------
158.6
.7
82.2
.2
1.0
76.3
-.3
1983:
-
A-------------
181.4
1.3
84.3
1.2
77.2
--_______--_ _
B-------------
-
160.8
1.1
84.0
1.1
78.9
__-____------
C-------------
159.6
.6
83.3
.9
76.3
-.3
D-------------
-
158.9
.4
83.0
.8
75.9
-.4
1984:
A-------------
162.6
1.2
85.3
1.0
77.3
.2
B-------------
161.7
.9
84.9
.9
76.0
--------_--___
C-------------
160.0
.4
84.0
.6
76.1
-.2
D-------------
159.0
.1
83.5
.5
75.6
-.4
1985:
A-------------
163.8
1.1
86.2
.9
77.6
.3
B-------------
162.6
.8
85.8
.7
79 .0
.1
C-------------
160.3
3
84.4
.4
75.9
-.1
D_____________
158.9
-.1
83.7
.2
75.2
-.3
Source: Same as table 11-7.
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
32 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-12. Estimated and projected population of "retirement age" in the
IT.S.S.R.: 1969-85
[Jan. 1 figures in millions. Figures were independently rounded without '.adjustment to
group totals]
Year
Both
sexes
Males,
60 ears
old and
over
Females,
55 ears
olyd and
over
Year
Both
sexes
Males,
60 years
old and
over
Females,
55 years
old and
over
1959________________
25.6
6.6
18.8
197'1 ----------------
38.4
10.6
27.7
1960________________
26.3
6.8
19.5
1979:______________,_
39.0
10.9
28.1
1961________________
27.2
7.0
20.2
19711 ----------------
89.5
11.1
28.4
1962________________
28.0
7.2
21).8
197(l ----------------
40.0
11.3
28.7
1963________________
28.9
7.4
21.5
1971______________:_
40.4
11.4
29.0
1964________________
29.0
7.6
22.2
197?1________________
41.0
11.6
29.4
1965________________
30.9
7.9
213.0
197V ----------------
41.7
11.6
30.0
1966________________
32.0
8.2
23.8
198(1________________
42.5
11.7
30.8
1967________________
33.2
8.6
24.6
1981 -----------------
43.5
11.8
31.7
1968________________
34.2
8.9
25.4
1982________________
44.6
11.9
32.7
1969________________
35.2
9.2
26.0
198?1________________
45.7
12.1
83.7
1970________________
36.1
9.6
26.6
198
47.0
12.6
84.5
1971________________
37.0
9.9
27.0
1986_-------- __.__
48.2
13.0
36.2
1972________________
37.7
10.3
27.4
TABLE II-13.-Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sex, 1950-8b
[Absolute numbers in thousands; rates per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
BOTH SEXES
ESTIMATES
1950_________________
178,520
180,050
3,060
17.0
4,805
26.7
1,745
9.7
1951___
181,580
183,165
3,169
17.3
4,945
27.0
1,777
9.7
1952_________________.
1963
1184,749
11
1188,349
1
3,199
17.2
4,948
26.6
1,749
9.4
_________________
87,948
189,464
3,031
16.0
4,756
25.1
1,724
9.1
1964____________
190,979
192,685
3,411
17.7
5,125
26.6
1,714
8.9
1955_________________
194,39D
196,108
3,435
17.6
5,048
25.7
1,613
8.2
1956_________________
1197,825
1199,582
3,513
17.6
5,029
25.2
1,516
7.6
1957___
201,338
203,126
3,575
7.6
5,159
25.4
1,584
7.8
1958_________________
204,913
206,788
3,749
18.1
5,240
25.3
1,491
7.2
1959_________________
208,662
210,492
3,660
17.4
5,264
25.0
1,604
7.8
1980----------------- .
212,322
214,228
228
3,812
17.8
5,341
24.9
1,629
7.1
1961_________________
1216,134
:
1 217,949
3,629
16.7
5,192
23.8
1,563
7.2
1962-------------
219,76.3
1221,409
3,292
14.9
4,959
22.4
1,667
7.5
1963_________________
1223,055
1224,667
3,224
2 14.4
4,865
121.7
1,641
37.3
PROJECTIONS
Serfes A
1964_________________
1226,9279
227,900
3,242
14.2
4,895
21.5
1,653
7.3
1965_________________
229,521
231,096
3,150
.13.6
4,814
20.8
1,664
7.2
1988_________________
232,671
234,204
3,066
13.1
4,743
20.3
1,677
7.2
1967_________________
235,73-7
237,247
3,019
L2.7
4,706
19.8
1,687
7.1
1968_________________
239,75(3
,
240,263
3,014
12.5
4,717
19.6
1,703
7.1
1969_________________
241
770
243,291
3,042
12.5
4,769
19.6
1,727
7.1
1970_________________
244,812
246,360
3,1)96
12.6
4,853
19.7
1,757
7.1
1971_________________
247,903
249,498
3,179
12.7
4,961
19.9
1,782
7.1
1972_________________
251,087
252,720
3,1165
,
:L2.9
6,078
20.1
1,813
7.2
1973_________________
254,35)
258,029
3
353
:33.1
5,202
20.3
1,849
7.2
1974_________________
267,708
259,428
3,445
13.3
5,334
20.6
1,889
7.3
1975_________________
261,150
262,907
3,513
13.4
5,436
20.7
1,923
7.3
1976_________________
264,66x3
266,450
3,574
:33.4
5,542
20.8
1,968
7.4
1977_________________
268,237
270,063
3,652
:33.5
5,654
20.9
2,002
7.4
1978_________________
271,889
273,757
3,736
:33.6
5,770
21.1
2,034
7.4
1979_________________
275,625
277,525
3,800
:13.7
5,888
21.2
2,088
7.6
1980_________________
279,4213
281,361
3,871
113.8
5,998
21.3
2,127
7.6
1981_________________
283,2911
285,269
3,946
13.8
6,098
21.4
2,162
7.5
1982_________________
287, 242
289,238
3,992
13.8
6,188
21.4
2,106
7.6
1983_________________
291,234
293,245
4,022
1.3.7
6,259
21.3
2,237
7.6
1984______________
295,256
297,274
4,(136
1.3.6
8,313
21.2
2,277
7.7
1986--------------
299.292
----------
----------
----------
----------
- --
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2GQ P~O P70VQ 9~1q%3V0015c 1-1
CURRENT E 0 &D ' A
TABLE II-13. Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sex, 1950-85-Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands; rates per thousand population]
Series B
1984_________________ 1228,279
2966_229,336
2988_232,273
2967__________ 236,098
2988_________________ 237,840
1969----------------- 240,848
1970________________ 243,247
1971__________________ 248,960
1972________________ 248,716
1973___ ____--------- 281,617
1974___________________ 264,360
1976_________________ 287,248
1976_________________ 260,189
1977_________________ 263,189
1978_________________ 263,189
1979_________________ 269,379
1981________________ 276,809
logo ------------------ 272,567Series C
1982____ ______________ 279,113
1983_________________ 282,467
1984_________________ 285,821
1988 289,192
196?_________________ 1226,279
',o_________________ 228,968
1968_________________ 231,495
1967 1
233,886
1968_________________ 236,114
1969_________________ 238,278
1970_________________ 240,376
1971_________________ 242,429
1972____244,463
1973______246,478
1974_____248,462
1978_____260,421
1976______262,417
1977_________________ 254,453
1978_________________ 256,828
1979____288,647
1960____260,810
1981_________________ 263,004
1962_________________ 286,243
1983____267, 507
1964____269,779
1988 ----------------- 272,046
Year
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July I
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Born SEXES
PROJECTIONS
227,808
230
805
3,057
2
937
13.4
12.7
4,707
4,593
20.7
19.9
1,650
1,656
7.2
7.2
,
233,684
488
236
,
2,822
2
745
12.1
11.6
4,491
4,423
19.2
18.7
1,669
1,678
7.1
7.1
,
239,198
241,898
,
2,708
2,699
11.3
11.2
4,400
4,416
18.4
18.3
,692
1,717
7.1
7.1
244,604
247,338
2,713
2,766
11.1
11.1
4,461
4,526
18.2
18.3
1,748
1,770
7.1
7.2
250,117
252,939
2,801
2,843
11.2
11.2
4,600
4,678
18.4
18.6
1,799
1,835
7.2
7.3
256,803
268,718
2,886
2,943
11.3
11.4
4,763
4,854
18.6
18.8
1,877
1,911
7.3
7.4
261,689
264,719
3,000
3,060
11.5
11.6
4,948
5,048
18.9
19.1
1,948
1,988
7.4
7.6
267,814
270,973
3,130
3,188
11.7
11.8
5,162
5,257
19.2
19.4
2,022
2,069
7.6
7.6
274,188
277,461
3,242
3,304
11.8
11.9
5,355
5,445
19.5
19.6
2,113
2,141
7.
7.
280,785
284,139
3,344
3,364
11.9
11.8
5,525
5,589
19.7
19.7
2,181
2,225
7.
7.
287,507
3,371
11.7
5,637
19.6
2,266
7.
----
------
----------
----------
----------
-
---------
-
--------
---------
227,624
232
230
2,689
2
527
11.8
11.0
4.330
4,170
19.0
18.1
1, 841
1, 643
7.
7.
,
232,680
234,990
,
2,370
2,249
10.2
9.6
4,023
3,910
17.3
16,6
1 953
1, 861
7.
7.
237.195
239,326
2,182
2,100
9.1
8.8
3,837
3,798
16.2
15.9
1, 675
1, 898
7.
7.
241,403
243,446
2,053
2,034
8.5
8.4
3,783
3,784
15.7
15.5
1, 730
1, 750
7.
7.
245,471
247,470
2,015
1,984
8.2
8.0
3,790
3,798
15.4
15.3
1, 776
1, 814
7.
7.
249,442
251,419
1,959
1,996
7.9
7.9
3,810
3,883
15.3
15.4
,851
1
1, 887
7.
7.
253,435
255,489
2,036
2,072
8.0
8.1
3,958
4,038
15.8
15.8
1, 922
1,968
7.
7.
257,586
259,729
2,122
2,163
8.2
8.3
4,121
4,206
16.0
18.2
1, 999
2, 043
7.
7.
261,907
284,124
2,194
2,239
8.4
8.5
4,284
4 , 366
18.4
18.5
2, 090
2,117
8.
8.
266,375
268,643
2,264
2,272
8.5
8.5
4,420
4,471
18.6
18.6
2,156
2,199
8.
8.
270,913
2,287
8.4
4,509
18.8
2, 242.
8.
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
Series D
1904 ---------------- -
226,279
227,531
2,504
11.0
4,142
18.2
1,638
5
7.
7
228,783
079
231
229,931
232,125
2,298
2, 091
10.0
9.0
3,931
3,736
17.1
16.1
1,83
1,645
.
7.
1987 -----------------
,
233,170
093
235
234,132
235,987
1,923
1,787
8.2
7.8
3,574
8,450
15.3
14.e
1,661
1,663
7.
7.
--
----
-
1970
,
236,880
550
288
237,715
239,334
1,670
1,668
7.0
6.6
3,356
3,284
14.1
18.7
1,686
1,716
7.
7.
-
-
--------
1971 -?-------------- 1972
----
,
240,118
241
606
240,862
242,310
1,488
1,408
6.2
5.8
8 223
8;165
13.4
18.1
1,735
1,757
7.
7.
-
------- -----
1973 ___------`-?----
1974
--
,
243,014
324
244
243,689
244,930
1,310
1,211
5.4
4.9
3,107
3,048
12.8
12.4
1,797
1,837
7.
7.
---------------
1978
------
-
,
246,836
775
246
248,158
247,408
1,240
1,285
6.0
5.1
3,107
3,167
.12.6
12.8
1,867
1,902
7.
7.
-.----
----
1977 ----- -----------
-
1978
------
,
248, 040
249,325
248,683
249,982
1,285
1,814
b. 2
8.3
8, 231
3,297
13.0
18.2
1, 948
1,983
7.
7.
- -----
-----
1979 -
----------------
1980 - - - - - - - - - -------
-
250,839
251,983
251,311
252,661
1,844
1,356
5.8
5.4
8,364
8,427
13.4
13.6
2,020
2, 071
8
8
I Estimates of the total population for 1952, 1953, 1950, and 1961 through 1984 shown here are somewhat
different from the official Soviet estimates for these years because the official figures imply unexplained
residuals. These residuals for years 1980-62 are as follows: 1980 -34,000; 1961, +15,000; and 1962, +85,000.
9 The projections were prepared prior to the release of the vita{rates for 1963. The official rates for 1963 are:
natural increase, 14.0; birth, 21.2; and death, 7.2. Absolute numbers of births and deaths have not yet been
published.
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
b
6
7
8
9
0.
0'
1
2'
3
7
7
8
8
9
2
1
1
1
0
1
2
2
8
4
8
6
7
8
9
0
2
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
x:33 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-13.-E? stimated and projected total;population,components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.,R., by sex, 1950-85--Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands; rates per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
BOTH SEXES
PROJECTIONS
Series D
1981_________________
1982_________________
253,339
264 722
,
264,031
255,424
1,383
1,103
,
6.4
5.5
3,485
3
536
13.7
13
8
2,102
133
8.3
1983_________________
1984_________________
256
125
257,519
256,822
268
212
1
394
1
385
5.4
5
4
,
3,577
,
8
.
13.9
2,
9,183
8.4
8.5
1985-----------------
258,904
,
----------
,
------ -- -
.
------ ----
3
60
----------
14.0
----------
2,223
----------
8.6
--
MALE
--------
ESTIMATES
1950_________________
1951_________________
77, 896
79,498
78,697
80,333
1, 602
1
669
20.4
20
8
2,475
2
547
31.4
31
7
873
11.1
1952_________________
1953_________________
81,167
82
861
82,014
83
670
,
1,694
617
1
.
20. 7
:19
3
19
,
2,548
2
449
.
31.1
878
854
10.9
10.4
4
954-
956
,
84,478
,
85,389
,
1,822
.
.
21.3
,
2,639
29.3
30.9
832
817
9.
9
6
_____________
----------------
86,300
88,140 88,140
87,220
89,082
1, 840
1,884
31.1
21. 1
2,600
2
690
29.8
29
1
760
706
,
8.7
957_____________
958
90,024
90,989
1,929
21.2
,
2,657
.
29.2
728
7.9
8
0
_________________
959_____________
91,953
93,9711;
92,964
94,944
2,022
1,938
21.8
20
4
2,699
2
711
29.0
28
6
677
773
.
7.3
960_________________
961_________________
95,913
97,939
96,926
98,909
2,028
1
939
.
20.9
1
9
6
,
2,751
674
2
.
28.4
27
0
725
8.1
7.5
062_________________
963
99,878
100,761
,
1,765
,
.
.
1.7.5
,
2,554
.
25.3
735
789
7.4
7
8
_
101,643
102,515
1
744
1.7.0
2,505
24.4
761
.
7,4
PROJECTIONS
Series A
964_________________
965_________________
103,387
105,148
104,268
106,008
1,761
1,719
16.9
16.2
2,521
2
479
24.2
23
4
760
760
7,3
966_________________
967_________________
106,867
108,550
,
107,709
109,379
1,683
1
657
15.6
15
1
,
2,443
2
424
.
22.7
22
2
760
7
7.2
7.1
968_________________
969
110
207
111,039
,
1,664
.
15.0
,
2,429
,
.
21.9
67
765
7.0
6
9
_________________
970_________________
111,871
113,557
112,714
114,416
1,686
1,717
15.0
15.0
2
466
2
499
21.8
21
8
770
782
.
6.8
971_________________
972_________________
115,274
117, 044
116,159
117, 953
1,770
1
817
15.2
15
4
,
2,655
2
616
.
22.0
2
22
785
6.8
6.8
973_________________
974
118,861.
119,797
,
1,872
.
15.6
,
2,679
.
22.4
798
807
6.8
6
7
_________________
975_________________
120,733
122,658
121,696
123,643
1,925
1,969
15.8
15.9
2,747
2,800
22.6
22
6
822
831
.
6.8
976_________________
977
124,627
125,631
2,007
15.0
2,854
,
22.7
847
6.7
6
7
_________________
978_________________
126,634
128, 686
127,660
129,735
2,052
2,098
16.1
15.2
2,912
2,971
22.8
22
9
860
873
,
6.7
979_________________
980_________________
130, 784
132,91.7
131, 851
134,003
2,133
2,171
15.2
15
2
3, 032
3
089
.
23.0
23
1
899
6.7
6.8
981_________________
982
135,088
138,195
2,213
.
16.2
,
3,140
.
23.1
918
927
6.9
6
8
_________________
983_________________
137,301
139,536
138,419
140,664
2,285
2, 205
t6.1
115.0
3,186
3
223
23.0
22
9
951
9
8
.
6,9
984_________________
985
141,791
142,926
2,269
15.9
,
3,251
.
22.7
6
982
6.9
6
9
-----------------
144 060
----------
-
.
-Series B
964_________________
103,387
104,220
1, 666
113.0
2,424
23.3
758
S
7
3
965_________________
966_________________
106,053
106,663
,
105,858
107,442
1,610
1 557
15. 2
14.5
2,365
2
313
22.3
21
5
765
756
.
7.1
967_________________
968_________________
108
220
109
737
108,979
110
490
1 517
1
506
18.9
18
6
,
2,278
.
20.9
761
7.0
7.0
969_________________
,
111,243
,
,
111,998
,
,
1, 51.0
.
18.15
2,266
2,274
20.6
20.3
760
764
6.9
6
8
970_________________
971_________________
112
753
114,273
113
513
116,049
1,520
1,052
1114
5
2,297
2
331
20.2
20
3
777
79
.
6.8
972_________________
973
115,825
118,615
1,550
13,5
,
2,369
.
20.3
7
789
6.8
8.8
_________________
74_________________
117,405
119,016
118,211
119,835
1 ,61.1
1,638
13.6
1E.7
2,409
2
453
20.4
20
5
798
81
6.8
076_________________
120,654
121,492
1,675
,
18.8
,
2,600
.
20.6
5
825
6.8
6
8
76_________________
77_________________
122,829
124,041
123,185
124,915
1
712
1,747
13.9
14.0
2,548
2
600
20.7
20
8
836
853
.
6.8
78_________________
125,788
126,681
1,786
14.1
,
2,653
.
20.9
1367
6.8
6
8
79_________________
127,574
128,485
1,82:1
14.2
2,707
21.1
886
.
6
9
80_________________
81_________________
129,395
131,243
130,319
132,184
1,848
1, ,882
,
14.2
14.2
2,758
2
804
21.2
21
2
910
922
.
7.0
82_________________
83
133,125
134,077
1
903
14.2
,
2,845
.
21.2
942
7.0
7
0
_________________
84___________.._____
135,028
138,945
135,987
137,909
1,917
1,928
14.1
19 0
2,878
2
903
21.2
21
1
961
975
.
7.1
85_________________
138,873
I
,
_
1
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
7.1
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
9
9
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049A00300015QD1-1
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-13.-Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by sex, 195.0-85-Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands; rates per thousand population]
Y
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
ear
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
MALE
PROJETIONS
Series C
1064_________________
103,387
104,128
1,477
14.2
2,230
21.4
20
3
753
748
7.2
1
7
1966_________________
_
1968
104,884
263
108
106,564
106
926
1,399
1,326
13.3
12.4
2,147
2,072
.
19.4
746
.
7.0
_________
_______
1967_____
,
107,580
,
108,220
1,261
11.7
2,014
18.6
753
760
7.0
9
6
1968_________________
1969
108,850
110
076
109,463
110,877
1,226
1,202
11.2
10.9
1,976
1,956
18.1
17.7
764
.
6.8
_________________
1970_____
1
,
111,278
459
112
111,869
113
050
1,181
182
1
10.6
10.5
1,948
1,940
17.4
17.2
787
767
6.9
6.8
_________________
197
1972_________________
,
113,641
817
114
,
114,229
403
115
,
1,176
171
1
10.3
10.1
1,952
1,956
17.1
16.9
778
785
6.8
6.8
1973_________________
1974_________________
,
115,988
,
116,680
,
1,161
1
188
10.0
1
10
1,962
2
000
16.8
17.0
801
812
6.9
6.9
1975_____
1976
117,149
118
337
117,743
118,946
,
1,218
.
10.2
,
2,038
17.1
820
6.0
_________________
1977_____
978
,
119,555
794
120
120,175
428
121
1,239
1
288
10.3
10.4
2,080
2,122
17.3
17.5
841
864
7.0
7.0
_________________
1
1979_________________
1980
,
122,082
123
357
,
122,710
012
124
,
1,295
1
310
10.6
10.6
2,166
2,206
17.7
17.8
871
896
7.1
7.2
_________________
1981_________________
1982
,
124,867
126
000
,
125,334
126
675
,
1,333
1
350
10.8
10.7
2,243
2,276
17.9
18.0
910
928
7.3
_________________
1983_________________
1984
,
127,350
128
707
,
128,029
129
388
,
1,357
362
1
10.8
10.5
2,302
2,322
18.0
17.9
945
960
___
1985-----------------
,
130,069
,
----------
,
----------
----------
----------
----------
---------
Series D
1964_________________
103,387
104,078
1,382
1
13.3
12
2
2,133
024
2
20.5
19
2
751
743
7.
7.
1965_________________
1966
104,769
108
050
105,410
106,641
1,28
1,182
.
11.1
,
1,924
.
18.0
742
7.
_________________
1967_________________
1968
,
107,232
326
108
107,779
843
108
1,094
033
1
033
1
10.2
9.5
1,841
1,777
17.1
18.3
747
744
8.
6.
1969_________________
,
109,359
,
109,850
,
,
981
933
8.9
4
8
1.728
891
1
15.7
15.3
747
768
6.
6.
1970_________________
1971
110,340
273
111
110,807
723
111
900
.
8.1
,
1,660
14.9
760
6.
_________________
1972_________________
1973
,
112,173
113
038
,
112,606
113.450
865
824
7.7
7.3
1,830
1,600
14.6
14.1
785
776
6.
6.
_________________
1974_________________
,
113,862
114,251
777
800
8.8
7
0
1,570
1
600
13.7
13.9
793
800
8.
7.
1975_________________
________
1976
114,639
115,439
115,039
115,850
821
.
7.1
,
1,631
14.1
810
7.
7
_________
1977_________________
1978
116,260
117
095
116,678
117,521
835
852
7.2
7.2
1,664
1,698
14.3
14.4
829
846
.
7.
_________________
1979_________________
1980
,
117,947
118
823
118,385
119,262
876
878
7.4
7.4
1,732
1,765
14.6
14.8
866
887
7.
7.
_________________
1981_________________
,
- 119,701
120,149
895
908
7.4
7
5
1,795
821
1
14.9
15
0
900
913
7.
7.
1982_________________
1983
_
120,696
504
121
121,050
121
957
905
.
7.4
,
1,842
.
15.1
937
7.
________
________
1984_________________
,
122,409
,
122,863
908
7.4
1,858
15.1
950
7.
1985-----------------
123,317
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
----------
FEMALE
ESTIMATES - - -----
1950-
---------
100,624
101,353
1,458
500
14.4
14
6
2,330
398
2
23.0
23.3
872
899
8.
8.
1951-
--------------
-
-
1052
102,082
582
103
102,832
104,335
1,
1,505
.
14.4
,
2,400
23.0
895
8.
----- ----------
-
-
1953-
----------------
1954
,
105,087
501
108
105,794
107,298
1,414
1,589
13.4
14.8
2,307
2,486
21.8
23.2
892
897
8.
8.
-----------------
1955 ----------------- 1956
,
108,090
109
685
108,888
110,600
1,595
1,629
14.6
14.7
2,448
2,439
22.5
22.1
853
811
7.
7.
- ------- ---- .
-
1957 -----------------
---
9
8
,
.
111,314
112
960
112,137
824
113
1,646
1
727
14.7
15.2
2,502
2,541
22.3
22.3
856
814
7.
7.
1
5
-------------
---
-
,
114,687
116
409
,
115, 548
302
117
,
1, 722
1
786
14.0
16.2
2,553
2,590
22.1
22.1
831
804
7.
6.
1901 -- ------?
-------
962
,
118,195
885
119
,
119,040
120
649
,
1,690
527
1
14.2
12.7
2,518
2,405
21.2
19.9
828
878
7.
7.
-- -------------
-
1
1963
,
-
121412
,
122.152
,
1,480
12.1
2, 360
19.3
880
7.
---------------
--
2
0
0
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
0
0
1
2
2
4
5
5
7
7
6
7
6
4
4
8
3
6
2
2
9
0
3
2
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
3p6 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-13.-Estimated and projected total; population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by seal, 1950-85-Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands ; rates per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate _
Number
Rate
FEMALE
PROOECTION8
Series A
1964_________________
1965_________________
122,892
124,378
123,633
125,089
1,481
1, 431
12.0
11.4
2,374
2,335
19.2
18.7
893
904
7.2
7
2
1966_________________
1967_________________
125,804
127,187
126,496
127,868
1,383
1,362
10.9
10.7
2,300
2.282
18.2
17.8
917
920
.
7.2
7
2
1968 ------------------
1969________________
128,549
_ 129,899
129,224
130,577
,
1., 350
1,336
10.4
10.4
2,288
2,313
17.7
17.7
938
957
.
7.3
7
3
1970_________________
1971_________________
131,255
132,634
131
945
133,339
11.379
1,.409
10.5
10.6
2,354
2,406
17.8
18.0
975
997
.
7.4
7
5
972________________
973__________
134,013
135,491
134,767
136,232
1,448
1,481
10.7
10.9
2,463
2,523
18.3
18.5
1,015
1
042
.
7.5
7
6
974________
976_________________
136,972
138,492
137,732
139,264
1,520
1,644
11.0
11.1
2,587
2,636
,
18.8
18.9
,
1,067
1
092
.
7.7
7
8
976_________________
977_________________
140, 036
141,(003
140,820
142,403
1,567
1,600
11.1
11.2
2
688
2,742
19.1
19.3
,
1,121
1
142
.
8.0
8
0
978_________________
979
143,203
144,022
1,688
,
11.4
2,799
19.4
,
1,161
.
8.1
___________
980__________
144,841
146,508
145,675
147,358
,
1
667
1,700
,
11.4
11.5
2, 856
2,909
19.6
19.7
1,189
1
209
8.2
8
2
981_________________
982_________________
148,208
149,941
149
075
160,820
1
733
1,757
,
11.6
11.6
2,958
3,002
19.8
19.9
,
1,225
1
245
.
8.2
8
3
983_________________
984_________________
151,698
153,465
152,582
154,349
1
767
1,767
11.6
11.4
3,036
3,062
19.9
19.8
,
1,269
1
296
.
8.3
4
8
985_________________
155,232
,
.
rSeriee B
964_________________
9G5 ------------------
122,892
124,283
123,588
124,947
,
1. 391
1.,327
11.3
10.6
2,283
2
228
18.5
17
8
892
901
7.2
966_________________
967
125,610
126
243
1.,260
10.0
,
2,178
.
17.3
913
7.2
7.2
_________________
968_________________
126,875
128,103
127,489
128,704
1,229
1,202
9.6
9.3
2,145
2,134
16.8
16.6
917
932
7.2
7
2
969_________________
970_________________
971
IN, 305
130494
131
687
129,900
131,091
132
289
1,189
1,193
0
9.2
9.1
2,142
2,163
16.5
16.5
953
971
.
7.3
7.4
_________________
972_________________
,
132,891
,
133,602
1,2
4
1,221
9.1
9.1
2,195
2,231
16.6
16.7
991
1
010
7.5
7
6
973_________________
074
134,112
134,728
1,235:
9.1
2,269
16.8
,
'1,037
.
7.7
------------------
975 ------------------
135,344
136,592
135,968
137,226
1,248
1,268
9.2
9.2
2,310
2,354
17.0
17.2
1,062
1
086
7.8
7
9
976_________________
977_________________
137,860
139,148
138,504
139,805
1 288
1,313
9.3
9.4
2,400
2,448
17.3
17.5
,
1,112
1
135
.
8.0
8
1
978_________________
979
140,461
141,805
141,133
142,489
1,344
1,367
9.5
9.6
2,499
2,550
17.7
17.9
,
1,155
1
183
183
.
8.2
8
3
980_________________
081_________________
143 172
144,566
,
143,869
145,277
1,394
1,42`2
9.7
9.8
2,597
2,641
18.1
18.2
,
,
1.,203
1
219
.
8.4
8
4
982_________________
83
145
988
146,709
1,441
9.8
-
2,680
18.3
,
1,239
.
8.4
_________________
84_________________
147,429
148,876
148,153
149,698
1,447
1,443
7
1 9.8
; 9.6
2,711
2,734
18.3
18.3
1,264
1
291
8.5
8
6
85-----------------
150,311)
----------
------??--
---------
----------
----------
,
---------
.
----------
Series C
64_________________
65
122,892
123,498
1,212
0.8
2,100
17.0
888.
7.2
------------------
66
124 104
,
124,668
,
1,128
,
9.0
2,023
,
16.2
895
7.2
_________________
67_________________
125
232
126,276
125
754
126,770
1
(144
988
8.3
7.8
1
951
1,896
15.5
15.0
907
908
7.2
7
2
68______________
69
127 264
,
127,732
936
7.3
1,861
,
14.6
925
.
7.2
_____________
70_________________
128
200
129,098
128,649
129,534
898
872
7.0
6.7
1
842
1
835
14.3
14
2
944
963
7.3
7
4
71_
72____
129,970
130,822
130,396
131,242
852
839
6.6
6.4
,
1,835
1
838
,
14.1
14
0
983
999
.
7.5
7
6
73_________________
74_________________
131, 861.
132,474
132,068
182,873
813
798
6.2
6.0
,
1, 842
1,848
.
13.9
13.9
1, 029
1
050
,
7.8
7
9
75---- _-------------
76_________________
133, 272
134,080
133,676
134,489
808
818
6.0
6.1
1,883
1,920
14.1
14.3
,
1,075
1
102
.
8.0
8
2
77_________________
78_________________
134,898
135,731
,
135,316
136,168
,
833
854
6.2
8.3
1 958
1999
14.5
14,7
,
1,125
1
145
.
8.3
8
4
79_________________
80_________________
136
586
137,453
137
019
137,895
868
884
6.3
6.4
2,040
2,078
14.9
15.1
,
1,172
1
194
.
8.6
8
7
81_________________
2_________________
138,337
139,243
138 790
139,700
906
914
6.5
6.5
2,113
2,144
15.2
15.3
,
1,207
1
230
.
8.7
8
8
83_________________
4______________
140,157
141,072
140,615
141,525
915
905
6.5
6.4
2,189
2,187
15.4
15.5
,
1,254
1
282
.
8.9
9
1
85 --------------
141,977 -
--------- -
---------- -
--------- -
--------- -
--------- -
,
--------- -
1
1
.
---------
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049A003000150DQ1-1
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE II-18. Estimated and projected total population, components of population
change, and vital rates, for the U.S.S.R., by see, 1950-85-Continued
[Absolute numbers in thousands; ratios per thousand population]
Year
Population
Natural Increase
Births
Deaths
Jan. 1
July 1
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
Number
Rate
FEMALE
PROJECTIONS
' Series D
1964___
122,892
123,453
1,122
9.1
2,009
16.3
887
7.2
1965___
124, 014
124,622
1,015
8.2
1,007
15.3
892
7.2
125,029
125,484
909
7.2
1,812
14.4
903
7.2
1967_________________
125, 938
128, 353
829
6.6
1, 733
13.7
904
7.2
1968________________
_
126,767
127,144
754
5.9
1,673
13.2
919
7.2
______________
1989___
1970____
127,521
128,210
127,866
128,528
689
635
5.4
4.9
1,628
1,593
12.7
12.4
939
958
7.3
7.b
126,845
129,130
588
4.6
1;583
12.1
975
7.6
1972_________________
1973_________________
129,433
129,976
129,705
130,219
543
486
4.2
3.7
1,535
1,607
11.8
11.6
992
1,021
7.6
7.8
1974_________________
130,462
130,679
434
3.3
1,478
11.3
1,044
8.0
1975_________________
130,896
131, 116
440
3.4
1,507
11.6
1,067
8.1
1976_________________
131,336
131,558
444
8.4
1,536
11.7
1,092
8.3
1977_________________
131,780
132,005
450
3.4
1,567
11.9
1,117
8.5
1978_________________
132,230
132,481
462
3.5
1,599
12.1
1,137
8.0
1979_________________
132,692
132,926
468
3.5
1,632
12.3
1,164
8.8
1980_________________
133,160
133,399
478
3.6
1,682
12.5
1,184
8.9
1981____
1982____
133,638
134,128
133,882
134,374
488
495
3.6
3.7
1,890
1,715
12.6
12.8
1,202
1,220
9.C
9.1
1983_________________
1984_________________
134,621
135,110
134,866
135, 349
489
477
3.6
3.5
1,735
1,750
12.9
12.9
1,246
1, 273
9.2
[9.4
1985-----------------
135,587
---??---
----------
-----------
---------
---?-----
----------
----------
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Ay roved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
.58 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
74 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T0104ffRO30001SA001-1
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Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
76 CURRENT ECONOMIC ]'NDTCATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO0300015QQQ1-1
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R. ~! FF
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Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
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 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049A003000150%01-1
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 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
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Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
82 CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE U.S.S.R.
TABLE VI-7.-Soviet comparisons of physical output per production worker
selected industries, United States and U.S.S.R., selected years, 1939-59
Industry (products)
(1)
U.S.S.R.
1940;
(2)
U.S.S.R.
1950;
(3)
U.S.S.R.
1955;
(4)
U.S.S.R.
1956;
(5)
U.S.S.R.
1957; U.S.
1956
_
(6)
U.S.S.R.
1959;
U S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
1939
1947
1954
1954
(a)
(b)
195&
Ferrous metallurgy:
Pig iron, steel, and rolled products
48.3
41.8
54.6
49.1
53.0
51.5
59.7
Steel and rolled products___________
44.4
41.0
52.9
47.3
51. :t
49.7
59.9
Steel___________
46.3
43.2
54.7
48.7
53.2
51.9
62.4
Rolled products
41.7
38.2
49.7
45.5
48.4
46.9
56.7
Iron ore________________________________
38.6
25.9
41.6
43.9
37.3
36.4
35.1
Coke___________________________________
33.7
30.0
46.1
49.1
42.4
41.4
48.6
Coal__________________________________
51.3
31.8
35.9
38.3
28.2
28.8
32.0
Of which:
Underground mining-----------
53.7
34.7
36.7
40.3
28.6
28.6
32.1
Open-pit mining ---------------
41.7
47.4
79.5
98.0
78.2
78.2
94.8
Petroleum refining (benzine, kerosene,
ligroin, and diesel fuel)_____
48.2
41.0
37.0
43.4
42.1
42.1
46.2
Metal-cutting machine tools -------------
NA
47.3
74.9
74.4
69.5
69.5
62.0
Synthetic rubber ------------- ._________
NA
18.6
17.5
17.6
15.6
16.6
12.1
Artificial fiber__________________________
23.4
11.9
17.4
18.5
19.8
19.8
20.6
Logging ---------------------------------
29.1
26.3
32.2
28.9
30.7
34.1
36.9
Lumber________________________________
55.9
66.5
67.6
63.1
73.8
73.8
75.4
Paper and paperboard_________________
39.8
33.3
39.7
42.1
39.6
39.6
44.4
Cement ____________________.___
22.8
28.1
34.3
35.5
32.9
32.9
34.8
Construction brick -----------------------
45.5
35. 7
42.7
43.5
46.2
46.2
57.9.
Liure and gypsum _____________
27.1
17.4
21.6
22.6
22.0
22.0
24.8.
Cotton fabrics__________________________
39.7
38.7
41.3
37.7
38.5
38.2
42.0
Woolen fabrics__________________________
50.3
45.2
45.6
45.1
41.5
42.5
41,0
SiL'k and synthetic fabrics______________
16.5
14.4
27.7
38,0
42.3
41.9
37.4
Footwear (excluding rubber)-----------.
33.1
37.5
4i..4
44.8
44.0
44.0
51. 1
Rubber footwear ----------- ..________-__
67.4
126.1
81.0
79.9
78.9
78.9
72.6,
Meat (including 1st category sub-
products) ----------------------------
45.7
41.1
48.2
53.2
46.5
46.5
57.2
Dairy products --------------------------
29.8
20.8
43.4
53.0
5:3.1
52.2
50.6.
Vegetable oil- __._______________________
57.1
39.8
34.9
30.3
27.5
27.5
30.2.
Flour ----------------------------------
-40.1
39.D
60.4
60.7
60.8
60.8
57.15
Macaroni -------------------------------
52.6
66.3
57.2
51.9
55.3
55.3
61.8
Bread and bakery products __.__________
195.1
153. 3
151.5
147.4
143.5
143.5
135.1
Confectionery products -----------------
57.9
52.7
51.8
52.1
56.5
46.5
48.9
Beer -----------------------------------
26.8
38.0
33.2
35.7
37.8
37.8
41.0
Margarine____________________.._________
NA
NA
NA
17.1
NA
NA
NA
Source, by columns, follows:
Cols. 1, 2, 3, b(b), 6: A. I. Pats, Proizesditel'nost' 'truda v SSSR i glaenykh kapitalistieheskikh than
(Labor Productivity in the U.S.S.R. and in the Main Capitalist Countries), Moscow, 1964, p. 149.
Col. 4: -- "A Comparison of the Level of Labor Productivity in U.S.S.R. Industry and in the
Main Capitalist Countries," Sotsialisticheskiy trud (Socialist labor), go. 1, January 1959, pp. 46-47.
Col. 5a: -, "A Comparison of the Level of Labor Productivity in U.S.S.R. Industry and in the
Main Capitalist Countries." in V. A. Zhamin (Ed.), Ekonomicheskoye 8orennooaniye sotsializma s kapital-
izmon (Economic Competition of Socialism With Capitalism), Moscow, 1962, pp. 200-201. For a non-
Soviet analysis of these data, sec Gertrude. Schroeder, "Soviet Industrial Labor Productivity," in U.S.
Congress, Joint Economic: Committee, Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, Washington, 1962, pp.
137-162.
Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049AO03000150001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79TO1049AO0300015
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 Aroved r Release 2002/04/01 : CIA-RDP79T01049A003000150001-1
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