(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01049A002800080001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 28, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 12, 1963
• Content Type: MEMO

ved For Release 2000/05115-: CIA-R 9TO1049AO0280008O 0-i-_'2'_r.`-__.'_.`r
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Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1049AO02800080001-2
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 Approved For Release 2000/05/1 @CIA-tDP79T0i049A002800080001-2
USSR Ave a Ann _ Growth Rated in Fercer;t
Force
II*
X,
6
/ 4
661
7?66
a;T
8.0
4.8
4.3
3-5
5-6
Total InduBtry
3.5
3.6
7.6
7-8
Civilian Machinery
14.3
10.0
7.5
`a. F. Inv'e:It Went
14.6
10.6
4.3
Inv. I`quipo
16.3
7.6
10.4
Doenze
- 3.2
6.o
8.4
7.5
.7
Defense Fach1nery
.3
3.2.3
14.2
9.0
Defense tai ower
-13.1
- .3
2.0
Iil 'abet of men)
TAC iro jectionz.
62 numbers are Pral.1m1 mry.
R"?r~r+ ,, 1`n.n,
4: i.: CJ
Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1049AO02800080001-2
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA- RDP79T01049AO02800080001-2
`i .e rates of Cro^ th projected for defense (Force l eve l 1:7) to
195 i
r f .JL'aWy to be of the sc le or de F. of M agni ude as the rates of the le s t
o,x years. A'a.chinor y exact equi_ ::eat grow at a somewhat e aller rat:
than in the P8-62 period. 4anpox.aer grows moderately in contrast to t e
previous decline. Overall defense grows at the same rate as the average
the last four years. These coma risons suggest that the Force 11
programs would be z: '.n:a eable with approxizna.tely the slue economic strain in recent arear's. This is to say GOP may grow at 4 or 5 percent and
industry at about 8 percent, but that very little of this growth would
go to consumption. The growth of GNP would consist prt rily of growth
in defenze and in investment to support the growth in defense. The pros
J .or recu aptio a of growth in housin ; construction, of significantly :1ri srovin`}
yields and productivity in agriculture,, or of modernizing the production
and producti ci' consi. hers goods would be very slim.
5?
the c:r_;:.~norde effect discussed above would be temporary. her 1;36
Force Tt:vel 1I (as well as I and 111) projects a fairly stable level of
defense ::7;~endi :ures. hence defense purclases would be a declining share
of Gib and of a,chinery production. After 1966 spa resumption of more rap-lid
civilie n and constur,tion growth would be possible. Force level II is tha
_wvst strenuouu of the three prograns, because of the rapid build up
scheduled in the next four years (1962-1966). Consequ::gtly, the other fore
le ti-els are : xnaeable with less strain on the civilian economy.
u. Wo .- ..U ''ications need to be stated, First, we are not sure to
it t extent the slowdown in 1961 and 1962 results from cumulative .actors
k ,:- tive sIrAmping in investment projects, quality of products, etc.)
Approved For Release 2000/05/15 CIA-RDP79TO1049AO02800080001-2
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1049AO02800080001-2
he ;ce the extent to which a continuation of rapid defense build up
(