ADDENDUM TO CIA DRAFT OF SNIE 11-10-57 SOVIET ICBM PRODUCTION AND DEPLOYMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01049A001700440001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 9, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 26, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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26 R 1957
CIA/ IP 577-Sa2
(M P"Jeet 37-2M4)
TO CIA DRAIN' OF SNIE 22,40-57
Sony C ION AID
Genftvl o U tro
Based an our est3?te tbat the d t of arm I
at Major Soviet objectives we bel1we that the USSR rill seek to achle"
an early operational ewpablUty with this eyideqp and th3t it is ympezed
to accept risks in the allocation of res. 4 We bwe,
no direct evidence regarding Soviet tteaes to produce 4 a ? and
systems equUment in amity . dove know what prodwUan f tiee
are bear devoted to this saverew. We do ka s buwevw, at the USSR
Possesses a highly base which liebid6i all the skLUs
and ffteilities necessary for establishing City JaNducuon of successfully
developed missUe system.
MM Production.
2hs centralised Annulft of the Soviet econ=W viii perxdt the
to very rapidly marshal c resources ' for the tlty production of
ICBM system and equi o Soviet industrial rea ountes can be focused
on the paaMduction of the major cowponents of tbe? ICB;I; that is the a e9
guidance 63stess control s warhead, and alzrnmea ? soh of terse
can be Ilwadneed ou seWate., apecial$sed facilities On 'S. co-
ordinsted basis. In a+der to m1almisti delays, the
or
production and asseshly of eaMPOmmts is eecessaz7; parts 'oust be
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schcdulea and produced in advance; and the flow of the joy c
finnl s ly must be ooth. As major components am
ro i, n
can be put into missiles of current as wells past p ction? The more
mvidly the production program is pushed, the more likely bottleneck
to develop and the more frequent are costly c s . These deleye ch
are less likely to occur in the airframe and engine then the gii ce
control system. The USSR must weigh the cost of these del&ya ant rapl is nto
net the advantages of getting operable missiles early.
In light of extensive Soviet experience with shorter romW b i tic
missiles, we believe that the likelihood of large losses de to s cr h
production program is not very great. On this basis we believe that the
Soviet viev of the advantages. of achieving an early operation capability
will cik9ie the USSR to s the 'necessary i trial rerr ource?s 'on a
v e r y high' pri?rit~,'; and t h a t it will putsue ? vigo . sly a program for pro-
duction and d; pl 6 nt ?f this wepon no
appears asseda
A 5 I Pin.
f-al c vel nt
W6' have estimated the sdh6duling'and a ce' o
a high priority ICS prodnation., construotion'and trn
500 Id's deployed"on 50 - sites.
pY a .n,7?2vfl
~f ICS' a r elect
arbitrarily and wry have not attesipt~d to define it e em qpt'lml~m or miniv 5l
qmutity. th' 've have n,~ direct evidence that the U
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to carry out this precise program, this tion permits the assessment
of the economic capability, feasibility and implications of such a program.
With this in mind and on the basis of our estimate of the Soviet ICBM test
program we have developed a detailed production time table for the delivery
of up to 500 ICBM's to ccmpieted launching sites.
Daring the course of the ICBM flight test program var ccmponents or
subsystems such as propulsion, airframe, control, etc., will Prove their
adequacy to meet design specifications. As the design of each is proven,
its design will be "frozen" and production drawing and specification., as
well es detailed production plans, will be prepared. Mmy of these steps
will have been taken prior to ccpletion of the full flight teat program-
Then the final element of the I system design is proven,, the design of
the system as a whole will be "frosen", ImsdiSte steps will be taken to
initiate series production, end a build up to a pre-selected peak rate of
production will begin.
The 0 will determine the pe" production rate for I 's on the
basis of Soviet Planners' Judgment -PrimWilY with respect to their require-
ments for various numbers of missiles at selected points in time together
with their capabilities to achieve these requirements. M%ege ca ilitise
will include not only those for the production of ICBM's but also those for
the construction of sites, production and installation of
equipment , training
of troops and establishing logistic lines, ve believe that a peak rate of
about 40 ICBM's per month is c table with the high priority 500 ICBi
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Progrmm a lne here a A .period of l0?l4 months frau the be
1J of ee e
Production will be required to bilk zap faNm a f r H & D prcet l
of 6?7 Id's a month, to a monthly rate or 40 ceriee prodeed Z =as. i
period of time could be c press only under all-out mobiliation cor tlon
ed t pon a high priority buildup to a rate of 40 I i? o
Out ho ant
continuing production at that rate we believe that XCBN deliveries till be
acmpatible with the
of operational sites? In Mon to the
I ?s delivered to sites, many missiles Will have to be P ced for
testing.. training and logistic backup; the toted ntmiber of I? s pr ced
might emceed 700 by the time 500 are delivered to sites.
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(Including 88i108) is ti tGd to' be ut 70 ion d*UQTD ow a
total cost of about 3.5 billion
11mrs for the 50 Biteo ~,n the,, syotemo
I launch of a which hme bean postulated hi
i iti 1 coat of constructing and o irg o 1? h aite
7 Coati(m
i r ct operation a off tiveema by .robfIityv Q!Z& hi
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to dmoto 1r q t2tio of const etion geoo @ceo oo 7
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o 11ed to exec t Eo Chiang hcao 0
If caa loco gined ayetc e oeen with fay le c~onee& t 9 I
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rproo a 00 only 6 ji) , the totem lm:Lti Qoot e7o 1,d be (bout 2.2
~
11QZ~a for the 50 o teb in
rho ate o `L@ d ffQ in goat
bet ee t the 6-pal and bC0 p si byre' is e oot 1.3 billion doll c end the
noVInS,a a of enttreb7 In the coat of o t action o infitflo, c ota
of aiteo herder thm the 6-pad, eyste beat crofter then the 10e.
"mld
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t ink egnott?tton zm& the loeation of the atto
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Ia the wig
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1958
1 2 N 2 1 2 3 313
5-115315-E
Feb b( ,
`~ Z2 Oct f2v I
m X959
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eve'
Y Y Am MMMr MwYi1MAROM
- - r r ~ ^ r~~~M1.
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? tai eC tam caret Mi stl.r ewA3A be Is pUm 0 =w ae a lWs
a t ettau.
We believe the 0 is cepable at Y2i4tt t. tti about 90
zc ' a ( np mA,*I ute r*4-i r which ve asom r
o?trit at - to the 1 4 teems pevWvu) by tie *ad of 19 ; at %W cb
UM s '&tiV f re. " dle to o could! be no" eaod ~14n ps
pra tLer at gpastiic~1 IUD' a tnOlt1atsd. A pavdm%Uu Y "e of
40 MISNAUM , =Mb MZd be adil d. b7 ww1,7 3960 Mt by the
ftu at 1960 shat 50 apu 1U~al 91% ft fa,11p *WIMP" MIA ZMMMd
%W UNROK be we sow be moo.
'!alai oohed fow3?t 7m to-a4 and 8 nt a-, IF
is boom at mars e- a0' fottft i ia1 c"pM?ii1 itt~
ld~eo-~ialld ~dth tics pt+a~is deso~tee4M tq Sar~-tst esxth .kites
anal Owt 3alY aa.. lb tbOXVf a * aaa st it a eO d e i be
of mvmu dratet OW&Wwa Im Ulu 1%01& *Web" um um
"Ofi a Dirt this proplese 4MMM i as fotiiet t t t, sod tb! TiWr
via s ft ti* fff8it cap !bodes to as 1Olt a e bU ty we pas A=M*
it ?
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