FACTUAL INCONSISTENCIES IN CHINESE COMMUNIST STATISTICS OF CONSUMER GOODS PRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01049A001400080005-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 3, 2000
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 22, 1956
• Content Type: REPORT

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101031
956
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r C st C
Article C.re Coat (Jr
yesr Ilion
The, Problem of qAlttY
4. T1w o
50
7.
8>
9.
the Farmr in Chime Co iat Price-
The o the Communist Chinese Consi
t ractieability of Now Chinese Co=wniei
Year plan
amt program ,r the Five
or t~
lon to Forced Pro
in CO==1st Chime's AXA Rationing Sys
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significant policy decisions B odied in Communist China's
to allocate over 3/4 of state investment funda to
t other activities that do not add exiyth
welfare. The appexent neglect of the standard of living has been explained
essary consequence of the industrialization program. Other Chinese
pattern of v+estarn
of .living.
These d
t, despite the seeming imbalance in the
rrtant improvements vill be made in the standard
industrialization requires
or producer goods > e
concentration of investment funds will not prevent considerable iro
rtexit questions.
Lon to use as much as 75 percent of new investment
be sacrificed for some future l .eni n. Indian
for it furnishes proof that the welfare of present
output bs increased at an annual rate of about 8 percent under
ve Year Plan, a rate that ranks well in comparison to development
astern industrial economies. More important, the investment
ase in India is not at the expeni;e of present
In fact,, India plans only to raise inve s to ent from 5 to 7
percent of total output of goods and services, while Communist China has
uble the Indian rate a pz osea to
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practices? recoguition.to the fact that over 70 percent of its labor force
is e d in agriculture and that fo,
tut to 75 percent of Co=wziet China
to 70 percent of
? has, accordingly, allocated .5 percent of its investment
poxtion of its population engaged in agriculture and with
ural sector. Co==ist China on the other hand - with
food occupying the lice's share of people's consumption a nditc es ?
,'allocating only 8 percent of its investment funds to agriculture and. water
in terms of grain output ich Communist China
t of 16 billion - are far out of proportion
crops to increase by
4 an increase of ro b1 7 million
xpects to get 4.7 ton
of new investment Comumist China
in, areas kdie? ti.6 _,p on only .1.5 tons
for each 1,000 yuen of investment,
The absurdity of +C i.st Chime's capital-output ratio;
only in
o india, but in relation to trends in. agrfcultur : production in
other countries, belies their a -unced expectation as to #nc Ue+d
ability of grain per capita in 1957 if the planned allocation of
nt funds in Communist China is such that grain to is cannot
possibly be acb ei
n one my conclude that the food component of per
capita consumption may not even be maintained, let alone increased
2
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Doubts as the iab ance . use of investment firth u r Co uuniet
borne out by a look at official
of eco ueer goods, in Shmwi ovince in 1952
d. for 19 57
ease C
are to Zvi 8 1/2 kilos a
tndent consumers would
thz of
rate of min production of about 4
to the approximate
8 t?nte to lose
en for i proven
in 1952 when lass
;e of not
PS.ts per
further the pace at ihich Com ist ,
~ by 1957. Row mob ii t an, beat will 1 kilo of
q u a c y of t h e plame& increase in sugar
I kilo per
11952
consumer activities. Kerosene consumption is to be increased
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A *1owing down of the rate of industrialization in favor of a more
effective F grto raise present consumption levels -ou d seers to be the
obvious course for a +verx ex t ;forting to be the true representative of
worker interests and. welfare,. Proof of the sincerity of their claims to
certainly vanting in light of their on consumption statistics.
clotting portion of coneumptton, fare under moist ina'e
event plans? Cotton cloth spa psi markets in 1952 were just
about enough to provide each person with are quit of padded clothes. The
inc - ed ly will be enough for about half of another suit. The clothing
picture is even less equate vhen firms: on stems, towels and the lire
even at the end of the Five Year Plan there will be less
es will be increased less than
a little over I pair,
mot be denied that certain cur goods will
wDlY In 1-957. lowever,
of consu s tion sti
ow. The neglect of consumer goods production in C et China's
such that there will be little or no i vement in
of living during the first Five Year Flan. One questions the
of
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J=e 1958
to tt =buaMd
t
tie with t in ak
Attlee per pier. bbxevver, C1a
of unhuskod graln. This rye t rure1 r
c%Utre is for eel:, teed, arA Vas
per 4e O r to as
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so-called "Voius to Y" purees
re y of C m is t policy ee enfor d by the mi3. ton
of ley crre thr UOxt the country, In the second place x accord
Chines Cunist Five Year -n, the pA=ha
for 1957 is 29 million to Of c rei&3. in. Of the 43.25 million
tons to be lei and p c d in 1957
e only 14.25 million tons
collected in the form of tees in kind. Bet eta 12 aid 13 percent
of the 1954 55 output a taken under the grain tax, or a total of from
19.0 *tUtou metric tons. even if the tax as a r rtt+an of total
- which is not probable,
of tax ,i unaccounted. fear in the pfd 1957 total
could simply be left out of the
or levy and purabaae, but i'
be coil
valqMt to at least 5 minim metric
that, in order to mOkO up the total of p
rain a o cti+ ns the burden ,
the pe a te in 1957 vould ine:
,base Program on
bx4to5
C - et grain collection goal re mined as star
pUnned: increases
. In
r 13 percent end pureb e under the forced
collecti za
figure is
grain taxee from food deficit fart bouseholds Xll
be form of cox,
wobebiy increase. acts: Valn
such higher
year rim .
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3 ,ttY i
Eof t M%Uwtry
a of the
sbz~m of criti
t
;h. Rubber pact
rya wore out too r"t rubber re a tis
tyrtr footwear ' WAs
not men; boor
no ate vt: is 54
V i .e ) bow ever to 4udge by t ii lbduatrY
nor AU it bet the
criticism h
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lit? ,-fit coax, ss
amity, they
ti
q t)* is t
1-10 Doe 53.
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d Dragon or the Case of Inflated Statistics
in conouu r } s goods s ctua output of 32.4 percent
roxi tes 7 to 8 pzrceut.
Cbia fu was referring
output of modem
tents o Light must
output from source
goods output duzIne the
tt a bl
Teen In July 1955 by Co=mnist C l a Minister
ess, Perbaps 7 to 8 percent fit.
nt of at. The sct *i
is a e se nee of
anted sector of
rganized
Since government c
of ovexs
af
1. Spech by Cbia o-fu, Minister of Light Industry,
f6wle C +n ss, 23 JW.y 19
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L zction Ministries as opposed to the z u .
 5.
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e Con v r
VMad natural to think that if the production of consumer goods
d, the U-berg of the su r would be greatly japroved; powe r
C Est Ch this
t of light Industry ; restored
by 1952
es in production of consumer goods, have Conti d;
uses for the products. China uses
sea rather than for consu tf on purpose
of light indt atry outer to acquire foreign exchanee is given
gwntitiez of light
%tion system 1esves only the bare mintw= of goods
'creed to vitbt so industry
can de. A stric?
of the Communist Case
in 1954 ?xe
'ttberrsttont" the figure
perceu
of mazy and
is intensified by the
only
tech by Yep Chi-eh0*n&, Minister, of Foxe. Trade,
People 'a C. es, 29 July 1955.
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woment because
 6.
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bility of Neu CUM"
1957 Originally
Est
in 1956.
t1 d uvre
ems; 195-7 tarot) ma
19
cote.0 1.
d 19533 Later
1954 to 955-
both
gmin st o
grid chmiftl fei.zs 1
At the Cc ` c'e,
62
co tea On& 61
o I 8 SILUOn tms.
videx #
1955 z'
eta the id rm
4 In this z& 25
cta of exit:
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our c o t m t r y bas bwM 6
sine, ' latter hat V,
1955
after t3 f tat pr
ants, rich pesaants ., and fo
,c t, t, a3 Dcc ar 1955.
t Of t was nts
of socialist x
by Cbatxu
ofa =all rod'
for sp
txb
t is 'ist&b4 ati iab e
of the P*QVIe'6 WIY
farmig
Cooperatives
ratites Aou3A
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the Vice Peer a inn: of the state
ni at '* cc s i of the First Jktiomi
rt by tom: D.ty Director -
y,
tlul committee of the cc g Liao
C "e ce 4 5 J%nuary i 5,
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of Industrialization for the Pe,
only demand a cOMPftMtivel y long-razee target for
ihoc4. After having dove ed agricultural
d their Income, the broad masses of peasants demand
their living
increasing
of higher-production measures,
ry, fishery, handicraft industry;
ti establishment of Primary soboois,
tu.=yeu States, "Thus o can predict that
this 40-Article draft program for developing China's agriculture to to be
eventually realized by the peasants them elves, using their own financial
and material resources. These tasks include agricultural cooperatives,
forestation; development of
elution of illiteracy among the pe
of broadcasting receivers, development of cultural and physical
but have also made a series of requests covering
ent of public health work and living conditions
reaa, and absorption of unemployed personnel in urbon amass to work
The above etataa ent contradicts Liao's araarlfer statement that the state
ve to fulfill the above mentioned conditions.
etatea, "of course
to support t
out by
its financially
tery 19W86, especially during
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if everything were dependent on the State or State investments
not be a quate . As a result the carrying out
a ska would b impossible, or a large amount of the state's financial
ourcee would be directed to this field, thus reti~cic,, industria investments
zed, we will have a Urge domestic
Zap effect, what Liao is saying
economy has to sup
:dustriali zaation. "
Living conditions.
stags, "Once the draft proms for develo,
is the peas
If accor lag to his previous state men
o be the main Support
program, this would necessitate forced, saving
boss purchases and gloving back of agricultural income into industrial,
invest:
ailed high pure
der will p
without any
or increase in market goods for the ordinary consumer.
1. Report of the Deputy Director of the Rural Work Department of the
Central Ca tttee of the Chinese Communist Party, Liao fiat-yen, at the
Supreme State Conference, January 25, 1956
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 a,
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to Forced vcurewu:
or as the BOW
hies.,
tur oar
be void to t
end to be bot
t this system can not be
toria revealed the
in 1955 to
t e villages acre go percent cox
the
qua tier am still ~
1955a
.955
1955-
ant policy
;& in the
abler .
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Discrimination in Cowmad-ot I
- uspropartimate allocatim
to t luduatrUJ- sector of the eaoumW
.-1937: str of
cause of the
1955, is
ed two atts
twee W rat.
of squ& ty bet wen eities s Vi s in
the vi 0 p
still Vory b in e
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ttie,
td into Ulm X
wtidowe of i M tf
o tks wvarmwut} is t1 1 ] e+
t13 of food
18 Fovea 804 r 1la. < The fo Wi
PSOVIO jf 23 '
Tientsin, 5 acytomftr 1955.
c# i t exempt"
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rchasinS power under the Chine
place due to greater increases in prices
products
,th agricultural products. Typical of this decline is the
e in 8h n hat c with the price of cloth -- the two mein
d in rural.-urban a clumV? In 1936 p in terms of average
picui (110 pounds) of rice could be exchanged for
5 bolts (Of
quotations
show that in October 1950 one
prjcui of rice was equivalent in value to =67 bolt of cloth and in yebruary
1951 one picul of rice was equi lent to ?+5 bolt of cotton cloth. Average
Shanghai prices for 1952 meted in the 8 i ii*in-wen Jih_ - show that
a picul of rice coil& eh
of cloth in that year.
The 1952 ratio of prices for rite and cloth has continued throughout
195k a1thougb there has been a sb rise in production of cotton cloth end
a much slog rise in output of food crops. Therefore Chinese C et price
policies run counter to the price relationships tba - coed be expected to
by sharply restri.
yards each) of cloth. In contrast, under the C ists ,
ability to pure
n burden on the peant
products.
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