ZAMBIA: THE KANDABWE COAL QUESTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A002400230001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 1, 1965
• Content Type: BRIEF

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NTELLIGENCE BRIEF
Copy N'
EC''A't'E GF INTELLIGENCE
C?ce o esearrch. and Rejorts
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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ZAMBIA: THE KANDABWE COAL QUESTION*
Zambia's plans to extract coal from the Kandabwe fields in order
to lessen the country's dependence on Rhodesian coal seem overly
optimistic, especially in the long run. If the Kandabwe fields are ex-
ploited throughstrip mining, the proved reserves that could be stripped.
would be exhausted within 12 months. Total strip production would be
only about 325, 000 tons. ** Underground mining of proved reserves
would provide the equivalent of only about 2 year's supply at Zambia'
present annual rate of coal consumption. Furthermore, the poor quality
of the coal would present additional drawbacks. The calorific value of
the coal is much less than that of Rhodesian coal, and therefore about
50 percent more Kandabwe coal would be needed to replace the Rhodesian
imports. Moreover, the inferior quality also makes the use of the coal
difficult for the railroads, in the thermal plants, and probably in produc-
ing blister copper.
1. General
The Zambian government contingency planning team in Lusaka is
placing increasing reliance on future production of coal from the
Kandabwe fields as a way of lessening the country's complete dependence
on coal imported from the Wankie collieries in Rhodesia which supplied
Zambia with about one million tons in 1964. Contracts have already been
let to improve the road from the railhead at Choma -- 47 miles from
Kandabwe -- and initial plans to mine 15, 000 tons monthly by March
have been increased to 30, 000 tons. Moreover, some consideration
has been given to the possibility of raising Kandabwe output to about
90, 000 tons monthly. The prospect of replacing Wankie with Kandabwe
coal raises three sets of related questions (concerning mining, quality,
and truck transport) which can be only partly answered on the basis of
available information. On balance, and with the available data, there
are sufficient unresolved problems to cast considerable doubt on the
feasibility of the projected Kandabwe operation, especially over the
long run.
* The estimates and conclusions in this brief represent the best
judgment of this Office as of Zb November 1965.
** Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this brief.
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2. The Mining Problem
Estimates of Kandabwe coal reserves range from 11 million to
17 million tons, of which only 3 million tons are regarded as proved.
The thickness of the seam varies from 7 to 27 feet, much of which is
impure. Only the bottom 6 feet of the average seam width of 12 feet
is considered worth exploiting. The deposit itself slopes downwards
from the outcrop and has an average dip of 20 degrees. However, the
inclination increases markedly with depth -- to 40 degrees -- and at
the same time the coal seam thins out. The immediate roof consists
of carbonaceous shale and shaley coal seams and stringers. Although
Kandabwe was not considered strippable in 1963, a subsequent report
refers to some strippable coal at depths of 100 to 200 feet -- presum-
ably limited stripping along the outcrop, or high part of the bed, to
a depth of 100 to 200 feet.
It has been concluded that there is very limited potential for
strip mining -- only about 10 percent of reserves -- and that a produc-
tion rate of as much as Z5, 000 tons monthly would exhaust known proved
reserves within 12 months. Furthermore, although details on the charac-
teristics of the overburden are not known, the thickness of this cover --
100 to 200 feet would create a serious problem in stripping. Under-
ground mining could also pose major problems. Depending on the
mining method used, the roof may well pose formidable difficulties.
The roof-and-pillar method would imply a low recovery rate of 50 to
60 percent of coal in the ground and would thus limit recovery to about
2 million tons of proved reserves. Should the probable reserves of
between 8 million and 14 million tons prove out, recovery could range
between 5 million and 9 million tons. Long-wall mining would require
a longer time to reach capacity than would either of the above methods,
but ultimate coal recovery would be higher.
3. The Question of Quality
Kandabwe coal is decidedly inferior to Rhodesia's Wankie coal.
The average ash content of the bottom 6 feet -- the better grade -- is
22 percent, and the calorific value is about 10, 000 _BTU per pound. By
comparison, uncleaned Wankie coal averages 14 percent ash and 13, 000
BTU per pound. Because of the lower calorific value of Kandabwe coal
and its high ash content, roughly 1. 45 to 1. 50 tons of Kandabwe would
be required to replace 1 ton of Wankie. On this basis the amount of
Kandabwe-type coal necessary to maintain Zambia on a care-and-
maintenance basis, with no copper production, would be about 600, 000
tons per year.
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There are three major uses for coal in Zambia: to fuel the railroad,
to produce smelter copper, and to run thermal electric plants. On the
basis of available information, it seems likely that Zambian steam loco-
motives would require considerable modification of their fireboxes and
grates to use Kandabwe coal. Furthermore, the ash-fusion temperature
of Kandabwe coal is not known but could be very critical. A low ash-
fusion temperature could give considerable trouble with equipment not
especially designed for burning this type of coal -- for example, in the
thermal plants. It seems likely that Kandabwe coal could be used in
producing blister copper, but with lesser outputs of blister copper per
ton of coal.
4. Trucking Kandabwe Coal
Thus far, three hypothetical levels of production of Kandabwe coal
have been considered: 15, 000 tons, 30, 000 tons, and about 90, 000 tons
per month. The trucking of such quantities of coal from the mine to
the railhead at Choma would not pose especially difficult problems.
The distance is about 47 miles over an average ascending grade of
1. 28 percent, although maximum grades over part of the route may
be considerably higher. In the initial stage, coal would be loaded to
truck by power shovel. Unloading would be either by dumping on the
ground at Choma or into hoppers at the railhead. At a production rate
of 15, 000 tons monthly (a movement of 500 tons daily), 50 truck loads
at 10 tons each would be required. With a round trip distance of only
94 miles, it is entirely possible for each truck to make two round trips
daily, and the total trucks necessary would be 25. A factor of 20 per-
cent for truck downtime for maintenance and repair raises the total
requirement to 30 trucks. At a production and transport rate of
90, 000 tons, 150 trucks would be required.
Fuel requirements. for the trucks are estimated. at a consumption
rate of 6 miles per gallon of diesel-"fuel. Monthly fuel consumption.
for 15, 000 tons of coal transport would therefore be 80 tons and for
90, 000 tons about 480 tons.
Analysts:
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SECRET
 Analyst: , I/AF
(Project 48. 5292) .
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CONTROL RECORD FOR SUPPLEMENTAL DISTRIBUTION 25X1A
SERIES NUMBER
CIA/RR CB 65-73
CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT
SECRET
DISTRIBUTION TO RC
34
DATE OF DOCUMENT
November 1965
NUMBER OF COPIES
300
NUMBER IN RC
COPY
RECIPIENT
DATE
NO. (S
25X1A
SENT
RETURNED
8-10
Returned by DD / ORR
30 Nov 65
8-10
I/AF 25X1C
1 Dec 65
176
SA/RR for review for
it
3s--
241-255
DDI
,r
;.?w3 Nov 65
177
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St/P
2 Dec 65
178
CGS /HR/ Ops 25X1A
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200-240
Filed in St P C
2 Dec 65
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St/A/DS Distribution of Current Support Brief No. 65-73, Zarn, bia: T
rndabwe Coal Queation -- November 1965 SECRET)
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7 O
Archi'vaI File
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7 December 1965
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD/CR
FROM Chief, Publications Staff, ORR
.SUBJECT Transmittal of Material
It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 65-73y Zambia:
The Ka: dabwe Coal. Queetion, November 1965, Secret, be forwarded ao fo .o :
State, INR Communications Center,
Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg.
Suggested distribution for
Embassies in Lc radon, Yaounde? :opol4vi.11eo
Addis Ababa, Acera, Abid3an.0 Nairobi,,
P+)nrovia, Tripoli, Rabat, Lagos, Mo ,adiecio,
O arto-mn,. Tunis, Pretoria, Algiers, Cotonou$
Dakar, and Bamako,
Attachments: 19
Copies #200 - #218 of CB 65.73
th COPY 1219 of CB 65 -73 )
Pale, d ,lfC~ c. n S r
6Y:
A P.
T
The dissam,nat c,n r . uosfad by
this memorandum has been compiop
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Project No. 48. 5292
Report Series CIA/RR CB 65-73
Zambia: The Kandabwe Coal Question -- XX November 1965 (SECRI
25X1A
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