AGRICULTURAL SITUATION IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES MAY RESULT IN RECORD GRAIN IMPORTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A002400110001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 1, 1965
• Content Type: BRIEF

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AGRICULTURAL SITUATION IN COMMUNIST' COUNTRIES
M
AY RESULT IN RECORD GRAIN IMPORTS
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Office of Research and Reports
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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 Approved For Release 2000/08/2, _ (IA-FpP
r79T01003A002400110001-2
AGRICULTURAL SITUATION IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
MAY RESULT IN RECORD GRAIN IMPORTS
An analysis of the agricultural situation in the USSR, Eastern
Europe, and Communist China as of mid-October 1965 indicates that
total grain imports by these countries from the Free World in the
consumption year 1965/66-"--'.- may reach a record level of 23 million to
24 million metric tons (mt), The previous record of 22.. 6 million mt
was set in 1963/64 (see Table 1) Purchase agreements concluded to
date provide for total imports of some 18 million to 19 million mt,,
Communist China currently is negotiating with Canada, Australia, and
Argentina for additional wheat? Some of these negotiations relate to
long-term agreements (for example, anew three-year agreement with
Canada), but it is likely that Communist China, will purchase an addi-
tional million tons of wheat, and possibly more, for delivery by June
1966. The USSR also may need several million tons in addition to the
amount already contracted for.. Soviet officials have recently disclosed
a need for additional imports of quality wheat. The amount to be im-
ported could depend not only on the quality of the Soviet crop but also on
the level of consumption considered necessary by the Soviet leaders. In
view of the limitations in supplies and/or port handling capacities in other
major wheat-exporting countries, the USSR may approach the United
States for part or all of any additional requirements, Similarly, some of
the countries of Eastern Europe may also approach the United States for
grain, but their interest is more likely to be in the purchase of feed
grains -- for which requirements still amount to some 2 million mt.
Agricultural output in the USSR in 1.965 probably will be slightly be-
low the level achieved in 1964 A decrease in the production of crops
should be largely offset by an increase in the output of livestock products,
As a result of the relatively poor wheat crop in 1.965, the USSR signed in
July-August 1965 purchase agreements for about 7 million mt of wheat
from the West.. In addition, as of 1 July 1965 more than 2 million mt
remained to be delivered in 1965 66 under earlier agreements. Although
the availability of wheat pc r capita in 1965/66 wi'l be significantly higher
than in 1963/64, s. v ral million additional tons would be needed to bring
the availability l)er cap~ta up to the average for the period 1954/55
through 1962/63 Nuv,,?rthy?lcess, the food situation in 1965/66, in general,
should be conside!r?ably hH'tt,cr than in 1963/64, when severe shortages of
staple food items wer-? wicltspread and the quality of bread was drastically
Albania, Bulgaria, (;rechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland,
Rumania, and Yut esl.rvia
00 Beginning l lily 196)
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reduced. At the recent Party Plenum, Brezhnev assured the popula-
tion that "everything necessary" had been done "to insure a normal
supply of bread products in the country- "
The agricultural situation in most countries of Eastern Europe in
1965 is mixed, with a decline in crop production being at least partly
offset by an increase in livestock production. Total grain production
is currently estimated to be about 5 percent below that of last year and
about the same as in 1963 (see Table Z) Although most countries had
an excellent harvest of breadgrains (largely winter grains), the output
of spring grains and row crops is down. It is estimated, therefore,
that Eastern Europe will again need to import a total of approximately
9 million mt of grain in 1965/66, or about the same amount as last year.
Yugoslavia already has approached the United States for 1. 35 million mt
of wheat under Public Law 480 arrangements. It is likely that several
other Eastern European countries also may come to the United States
for grain - - but probably for feed grains rather than wheat. However,
if these countries are unable to obtain enough high-quality wheat from
other sources or if the USSR fails to honor its commitments to East
Germany and Czechoslovakia, purchases of wheat may also be made.
Production of grain in Communist China in 1965 is estimated to be
about the same as the mediocre crop of 170 million to 175 million mt
harvested in 1964. The size of the harvest in 1965, however, is still
heavily dependent on the outcome of the late grain crops, which in some
areas will not be harvested until the latter part of November. As in
recent years, the growth of population has again exceeded any likely
increase in the production of grain; however, Chinese Communist im-
ports of grain and the increased consumption of subsidiary foods --
primarily leafy vegetable-, fruits, and animal products produced
mainly on private plots - - have compensated in part for the stagnation
in domestic grain production.: In recent years Communist China has
purchased some 5 million tc 6 million mt of grain annually from the
Free World. This level ul imports is likely to be maintained in 1965/66.
Production of grain in the: USS,Z in 1365 will be about 100 million mt,
a decrease of one -sixth i rc,tn they I ul the harvest in 1964 but almost
For a more detailed disc iss!c,n cat thc? current agricultural and food
situation in Communt~I t.htn.t, sc?i? (.:A RR CB 65-62, Little Change in
Chinese Communist At,rt' t-itural S!t1t,tttc,n Expected in 1965, October
1965, SECRET.
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one-tenth larger than the disastrous crop in 1963, As of 5 October,
about 12 million hectares of small grains (about 10 percent of the total)
had not been harvested. The slow rate of harvesting since mid-September
suggests that several million hectares will not be harvested before the
onset of winter. As in 1963, the yield of spring wheat in some sections
of the country probably is so low that it is not worth harvesting. a In
addition, a relatively :large amount of wheat from the crop in 1965 appar-
ently is of poor quality because of excessive rainfall during the harvest of
winter wheat and because of the severe drought in the major spring wheat
areas.
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Soviet officials have recently disclosed
that the USSR has a need for imports of quality wheat in addition to the
amounts already contracted for. Such imports would be required if
Soviet leaders decide that per capita availabilities of wheat are to approxi-
mate the average for the nine-year period 1954/55 through 1962/63.
Thus it seems likely that the USSR could be in the market for additional
imports of wheat.
Weather during the 1965 growing season did not affect the nongrain
crops in the USSR as adversely as it did the grain crop. Production of
potatoes, vegetables, sugar beets, cotton, and sunflowers will be below
the record or near-record levels of 1964, but in general. will be signifi-
cantly better than the relatively poor crops in 1963.
Overall production of livestock products in 1965 is expected to reach
a new peak, representing a marked improvement over the relatively
poor performance of this sector of agriculture in 1964. The amount of
meat, milk, and eggs produced in 1965 apparently will be about equal to
or in excess of previous record levels. Because of a decline in the
number of sheep, however, production of wool in 1965 will be somewhat
less than in 1964.
Currently, prospects for the livestock sector during the coming
winter are not as promising as at the same time a year ago. Although
supplies of succulent and coarse feeds will be fairly good in the most
important livestock-producing areas, the drought in Kazakhstan and
Siberia has drastically reduced the production of feed crops and hay in
those regions, and some distress slaughtering of animals will probably
take place. Furthermore, primarily because of a reduction in the
acreage of corn for grain, production of coarse grains (barley, oats,
and corn) will be little if any higher than in 1963 and will tend to impede
the development of swine and poultry husbandry,
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2. Eastern Europe
A bumper harvest of breadgrains !wheat and rye) is currently ex-
pected in all countries in Eastern Europe except Albania and Yugo-
slavia. The quality of grain in East Germany and Czechoslovakia is
down, however, and the high moisture content of grain could result in
high storage losses. The production of coarse grains, especially
corn, is well below the level of the past two years. A combination of
spring floods, lack of sunshine, and drought in the Balkans) has con-
tributed to a decrease in acreage and total output of -coarse grains in
all countries except. Poland. Thus, in spite of a good harvest of bread-
grains, total grain production in Eastern Europe this year will be below
that of 1964 and in several countries will be below the 1957-61 average.
Production of most fall-harvested crops is expected to be less than
in 1964. Planted acreage for the important crops of potatoes and sugar
beets is down, and yields have been adversely affected by weeds, un-
favorable growing conditions. inset ts, and a shorter growing season.
Harvesting of root crops and corn started as much as four weeks late
and is overlapping the fall plowing and sowing season for winter grains.
The situation is especially serious in the northern countries, where an
early winter freeze could catch potatoes and sugar beets in the ground
or in open storage. The sharpest drops in the output of potatoes from
1964 levels are expected in Czechoslovakia (45 percent less), followed
by Poland (25 percent less), and East Germany (10 percent less). In
addition to a lower output, the storage quality of potatoes is unfavorable,
and the sugar content of beets is below normal,
The production of fruits and vegetables will be smaller this year in
all countries, with the most serious shortfalls occurring in the major
producing and exporting countries of Hungary, Rumania, and Bulgaria.
These crops were first damaged by a wet spring and then by a drought
that set in about mid-May in parts of Rumania and Bulgaria and con-
tinued through September. State procurement of fruits and vegetables
has fallen significantly below plan throughout Eastern Europe in spite
of higher prices.
A favorable aspect of Eastern European crop production this year
was the relatively good harvest of forage crops and good pasture.
Although the quality of the hay may have been adversely affected by
delayed harvesting and frequent rains in northern areas, output was
better than a year ago. This output has been reflected in higher levels
of production and procurement of milk and meat than a year ago in
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Poland, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia. A shortfall in the output
of feed grains, fodder roots, and potatoes, however, will adversely
affect the outlook next year for meat production -- especially pork --
and the capability of maintaining current numbers of hogs and poultry
in 1966. Officials in East Germany and Bulgaria have already ex-
pressed concern that increased production of meat has been at the
expense of livestock numbers.
Prospects for any improvement in the food supply before next
year's harvest are less favorable than at;this time a year ago.. Con-
sumer supplies of green vegetables, fruit, and potatoes are tighter
and higher priced thana year ago with no relief in sight. The shortfall
in production of concentrated feed probably will not be adequately sup-
plemented by imports so that output of livestock products -- for which
demand currently exceeds supply -- may drop off in 1966. Thus, unless
countries such as East Germany and Czechoslovakia increase imports
and the other countries curtail exports of meat, governments may be
forced once more to raise retail prices or to take other measures to
curtail demand for meat. An excellent wheat harvest in Bulgaria, how-
ever, should eliminate the bread shortage in that country.
Eastern Europe -- including Yugoslavia -- will need to import at
least 9 million mt of grain during 1965/66. (In 1964/65 the countries
of Eastern Europe imported. about the same amount, nearly 6 million
tons of which came from the Free World.) Although the good bread-
grain harvest this year reduced import requirements for wheat, in-
creased need for feed grains will more than offset this reduction. In
view of negotiations now in progress with Free World countries and
expected deliveries from the Soviet Union and possibly Rumania, it is
estimated that the Eastern European countries have already largely
satisfied their wheat import requirements for 1965/66. Of the 1. 5
million to 2 million mt of feed grains likely to be obtained in the Free
World, however, only 320, 000 mt have been purchased to date, com-
pared with 1 million mt purchased in 1964/65. These data suggest
that Eastern Europe -- especially Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
and East Germany -- may be more interested in purchasing feed
grains, soybeans, and soybean meal from the United States, rather
than wheat. The inability or unwillingness of the USSR to deliver suf-
ficient quantities of milling quality wheat to East Germany and Czecho-
slovakia, however, could increase their interest in US wheat. Rumania
will be the only net exporter of grain (mostly corn) but at a lower level
than in 1964/65,
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Imports of Grain by the Communist Countries from the Free World
Consumption Years 1963/64 - 1965/66
Preliminary a/ Contracts a/
------Country__--- IL663 64 1265/66
USSR bl
Communist China
Eastern Europe
11,066
5,854
5,638
2,166
5,350
5,913
9,480 J
4,500
4,475
Albania J
120
147
50
Bulgaria
542
261
100
Czechoslovakia
504
746
400
East Germany
503
832
600
Hungary
790
300
275
Poland
2,319
2,266
1,500
Yugoslavia
860
1,361
1,550
Total 22,558 13,429 18,455 e/
a. Based on information available on negotiations, contracts, or ship-
ments as of 12 October 1965.
b. Including wheat or flour shipped to Eastern Europe, Cuba, and the
UAR.
c. Including more than 2 million metric tons from purchase agreeane.:
signed in 1964/65 but not delivered by 1 July 1965. The delivery
schedules of some contracts run shipped by thus
700,000 metric tons may pPe y the
(30 June 1966).
d. Financed by Communist China.
e. Additional purchases -- possibly 2 million tons each for the USSR
and for Eastern Europe and other million tons for Communist China --
may bring this total up to some 23 million tons.
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Production of Grain in Communist Countries
1963, 1961, 1965 Preliminary, and Annual Average
Million Metric Tons
USSR
Total, grain b
Of which:
Wheat
Eastern Europe
Total grain
Of which:
Breadgrains
Communist China
Total grain
Of which:
Harvested in early
summer e/
1965
Preliminary
100 120 [1251 92 [95J 105 [1111
48 58 40 55
54 56.2 54.2 53.5
28 27.3 26.7 27.2
170 to 175 170 to 175 175 174
1964
Annual
1963 Average
41 45 43 N. A.
a? 195 - 2 for the USSR and Communist China, and 19577-1 for Eastern
Europe.
b. Excluding immature corn. The figures in brackets include immature
corn converted to grain equivalents.
c. Including Albania and Yugoslavia.
d. Including tubers on a grain-equivalent basis of 4 metric tons of
tubers to 1 metric ton of grain.
e. Excluding tubers.
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196
197
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Filed in St/P/C
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2 November 1965
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD/CR
FROM : Acting Chief, Publications Staff, ORR
SUBJECT Transmittal of Material
Ituation in Communist Countries Result in Record Grain $m arts, 6Z-to e
It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 65-'- 1g icultu
State, INR Communications Center,
Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg.
Suggested distribution for
Embassies in Berlin, Bucharest,
Budapest,, Moscow, Prague, Sofia,
Warsaw; Belgrade, Geneva, Paris,
Rome, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei,
Tokyo, London, Canberra, and Ottrtife-
25X1A
Attachments:
Copies 22.1 58 of CB 65-61
CGS/RB
The disscr+,-.at,on re~rut?slad by
this memorandum has boon cotnpJgI$
BY%
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Project No.
Report Series
CIA/RR CB 65-61
Agricultural Situation in Communist Countries May Result in Record
Grain Imports
(SECRET)
Responsible Analyst and Branch R/AG
RECOMMENDED DISTRIBUTION TO STATE POSTS
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Europe
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/
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ce . emoranaum ? UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
STATINTL
DATE: 19 October 1965
FROM : Chief, Agriculture Branch, ORR
Source Material used in CB, "Agriucltural Situation in
Communist Countries Likely to Require Record Grain Imports".
No source material used in the subject report had a classification
higher than Secret and none had a label of No Foreign Dissem or Controlled
Dissem. Some State Department despatches and telegrams were used but none
STATINTL
shQ l_d present,any problems with the possible exception of the one we discussed,
Moscow Telegram #1189, 7 Oct. 1965? .1 As (Info taken from this telegram is
indicated on back of this. memo. )
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 Soviet offi is
h Ppr~gv~ or. Wa itd0/~8~4~?~ ~2 the uccR
or ~mpor s o quality wheat in a it ion to the amount already contracted
for. Such imports would be required if Soviet leaders decide that per capita availa-
bilities of wheat One to approximate the average for the nine-year period, 1954/55
through 1962/63. Thus it seems likely that the USSR could be in the market for
additional imports of wheat.
STATINTL
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