AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES OF EASTERN EUROPE IN 1964

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A002200230001-1
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• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 29, 1999
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 1, 1965
• Content Type: BRIEF

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INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
CIA/RR CB 65-23
April 1965
Copy No.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
OF EASTERN EUROPE IN 1964
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Office of Research and Reports
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
OF EASTERN EUROPE IN 1964-:,-
Gross agricultural production in 1964 not only failed to meet planned
expectations in the Communist countries of Eastern Europe (except in
East Germany and Bulgaria) but also showed only modest increases above
the level of 1963, a mediocre year. East Germany and Bulgaria reported
the largest increases in gross production, 4. 0 and 8. 6 percent, respec-
tively, while increases of 2 percent or less were claimed for the remain-
ing countries (see Table 1). In Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Rumania,
net agricultural production most likely declined.
Although livestock production exceeded that of 1963 in most Communist
countries of Eastern Europe, it was partly offset by stagnation or decline
in crop production, especially grain and forage. A shortfall in supplies of
feed will make it difficult for the northern countries of Eastern Europe to
increase the number of livestock in 1965 and will require that imports of
grain remain at the high level of 1964. Continued tight supply of meat,
milk, and butter during 1964 was reflected in an upward movement of re-
tail prices for these commodities,
1. Crop Production
Preliminary estimates of the total grain crop of the Communist coun-
tries of Eastern Europe in 1964 indicate an output of about 43 million tons,
slightly below 1963 and 2 percent below the annual average for 1957-61.
Grain harvests in the northern countries of Eastern Europe were down
from 1963, whereas most of the southern countries of Eastern Europe
showed small increases. As shown in Table 2, production of bread grain
fared better than that of coarse grains in most countries of Eastern
Europe, but the quality of these grains, especially wheat, suffered be-
cause of excessive moisture,, The total output of bread grain-was higher
than in 1963, primarily because of a larger sown area. The sown area
of coarse grains was less than in 1963, and these grains, which are
largely spring planted, suffered from hot dry weather in June and July,
thus further reducing yields. Hay, oilseeds, and early vegetable crops
also were adversely affected by the drought in the northern countries.
Including Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary,
Poland, and Rumania.
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Ln most countries of F~;n i rn T urolrr good precipitation followed tht?
.Ju;l-y drought, ant these countries achieved above-avera5e production of
root crops (potat,)es and sugar beetsl ardl late vegetables. Roth Polan(,
cruel Czechoslovalia. claim that 1 964 was
r e t nrd z,c,ar fnr hot:h su"ar
trcc'ts and potato(-;, and ;hove.-average. (,Ids of corn. sugar heets,: land
sunflower seed ware reporters in the southern countries. Albania is
c stinaateci to have had the hest crrain harvest, in sever;il w(-a rs_
f' ;.e number t c a.ttle and lrof7s inert-a sed throughout Eastern FurOne
1-10.(Ipt for a drop in the nurnhe r of cattle in Czechoslovakia and Rulgari,-;
anti in the numhe= of hof in T;;-ist Germ; ny (s0e Table 31, The total
r;unrbcr of cows, owever. declined in 1964, continuing the downward
tr+ r:d since 1961-, 'T'he ix-Lcrcase, in the n;!mber- of hogs reversed do -
-1rne that has continued since 1961, but the total number still was below
the level. of 1961, Tncreases :'hove the 1t,vel of 1963 in production a.nd
procurement of l v,estock prodLrcts -- me at, milk, eggs, and poultry W""(, a nnccinced hv most countries of Eastern F;urope_ Tmprovement in
'he livestock situ;iition durins 1 964 can be attributed to a combination of
I ciors, including high procurement pric o s, larger imports of feed
11
*.a in and protein tiupplement:s, (J()) (I crops of potatoes and feed grain in
196'i rn the; northern cou.ntri(,s; and -- i:- T?unt7irv and B i1 nria a.
more liberal atistud(, toward production from household plots
1.'hc corrtlook fe>r gains in production of livestock in 1965 in the
nurti~crn countrit?s of Eastern F,;rrrope and in. Hungary is unfavorable
l)ec.ause or the sow level of out it of fec,d "rain and forage crops in
`)b 1. F,vc n thoup?r imports of gr-yin are running at a hLg;2 level, it is
doubtful that they i11 be adegii;1tc, to ove,.Come the shortfalls in domz,st;.
'rutput of feed to tke extent that the numhe-r of hogs can he increased
further or that the numhe^ of c7iftle can 114, prevented from declining-
n aclditi.on, the current outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in ct,ntral
'':urcipe appear to !w serious enough to reduce the number of livestock
n Hungary and po:-sib.l.y in c;rc chosIova kii
'ht 0v-ear---al i -?val labil.ity of food in Fa.stern Errropr' did not Than r--
7ruch in 1`364 comp,-rred with 1 90 3. Meeting the demand for livestock
rodercts rcmaneci the major problem. Tn Fast Germany and Czecho-
lovakia the availal)ility of meat and poultry products i.ncreas(-d in thf,
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urban markets above that in 1963 because of higher procurements as well
as of continued imports, Poland and Hungary, in spite of difficulty in
meeting consumer demands for meat, increased their exports of meat
and other livestock products above those of 1963. Generally, retail sup-
plies of eggs and poultry showed the biggest improvement in 1964 in
Eastern Europe; milk showed the least gain. The supply and quality of
bread improved in Bulgaria during the last half of 1964. Relatively
good harvests in 1964 of late vegetables, potatoes, and tree fruits
(except in East Germany and Hungary) resulted in lower winter retail
prices than in 1963 and may take some of the pressure off the demand
for meat and other quality foods in the first half of 1965. Nevertheless,
the level of food production in 1964 does not portend any significant im-
provement in the diet of the average worker in Eastern Europe in the
consumption year 1964/65 -- a situation that has failed to improve since
1959/60. Sugar is the only food in surplus supply.
Total imports of grain by the Communist countries of Eastern
Europe, which reached a record level of 8 million tons in the consump-
tion year 1963/64, are expected to reach a similar level during 1.964/65.
Although Hungary and Bulgaria do not need to import as much wheat as
in 1963/64, their requirements for feed grain are equally as high. On
the other hand, Polish, Czechoslovak, and East German import require-
ments for grain are higher than a year ago, Rumania again will be the
only country of Eastern Europe with an ability to export substantial
quantities of grain, mostly corn, from the 1964 harvest. Although
Soviet exports of grain to the countries of Eastern Europe in 1964/65
are expected to exceed those of 1963/64, the largest share of the grain
imported by these countries again will come from the Free World.
There also are indications that the countries of Eastern Europe may
import relatively large quantities of US soybeans and meal in 1965 to
support expanding outputs of margarine and high-protein feed mixes.
5.. Agricultural Plans for-1965-
As shown in Table 1, planned increases in gross agricultural pro-
duction for 1965 range from a modest 2 percent for Hungary to an un-
realistically high 8 percent for Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia. Most of
the plans for 1965, like those for 1964, are aimed at overcoming the
stagnation in production of grain and at expanding production of fodder
in an effort to reverse the upward trend in the import of grains and,
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iT - A - t
.x1: the same time. supporting higher planned levels of livestock pr. oduc_
ticon. PL,nned increases in tt,e availability of fertil.i.zer are to go Iarge v
Lu grain and fodder crops. Output of mcst industrial. crops is not nla.nr,~rl
l:c incr c ase greati ,T, and no incroase in the production of slJ ar beets i=-
L 11,icipatcd, Within the 1ivestock sector top priority will be given to
iln reasir+v the nur?ibcr of cciw4, raising the milk yi-eld, and expanding
the larp,e--scale nc:ultry operations, The production and use of e,?-
('11111 y mi he d feed . Will he expanded throughout Eastern Europe this vea
It c) improve feed/neat output ratios. Upward adjustments of procureme -11
i,,ri.ccs for livestock products rnav continue in 1965 in an effort to stimuE,-+rr
t:put.
;~l he rgh agri: ultural lnvi?str-n nts arc planned to increase in absol~t-,
rms, tl: share ;7 f total state i -ivestments will remain about the same
III 1964. nvestmt nts again arc, being in, reased for those industries sin
lying agricultura inputs, :such as fertilizers, agricultural. machinery.
trrci construction 7na.terials. The, largest share of the investments allo
c:a.tcd to a rrricultu c e will continue to be a ed for mechanization, but 1.ancl
irrir)rovernent protects anc_ farm buildings will get a somewhat larger s1,.:-A r0
i.hrin previously. his shift is part of >=nvern.mental efforts to obtain
Yr -ater return on Mate investments in as,riculture by investing in those
projects that will -ai.se production and thoreby minimize internal cri.tici :n
c)ver lack rf retur:f from ri sinr? investments in agriculture in the 1900'4 fhc'se relatively kirge investmcnts have caused production costs tc, in-
'It faster rat:e than =rE>55 a.gricuitural- production.,
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Production in the Communist Countries of Eastern Europe in 1964
April 1965 ( CONFIDENTIAL)
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icu1tura1 Production the con nuntst -'be foies of Eastern
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Title Agricultural Production in the Communist Countries of Eastern Europe
in 1964 -- April 1965 (CONFIDENTIAL)
Responsible Analyst and Branch R/AG
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