CONTINUED SLOWDOWN IN SOVIET CIVILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN 1964

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A002200140001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 20, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 1, 1965
• Content Type: BRIEF

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Office of Research and Reports
SECRET
dedas$if cation
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200140001-1
CIA/RR CB 65-14
March 1965
Copy No.
CONTINUED SLOWDOWN
IN SOVIET CIVILIAN INDUSTRIAL. PRODUCTION
IN 1964
 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200140001-1
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
SLOWDOWN
IN SOVIET CIVILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
IN 1964
The first Soviet reports of plan fulfillment for 1964 confirm the down-
ward trend in rates of growth of industrial production. Civilian industrial
production -- with which this publication is concerned -- has shown the
following pattern of growth:
Period.
Average Annual
Rate of Growth*
1956-59
9.5
1960-62
6.8
1963
6.0
1964
5.8 (preliminary)
Within the civilian industrial sector, however, the three major com-
ponents fared differently between 1963 and 1964. Production of industrial
materials and consumer nondurables grew at a faster rate in 1964, whereas
growth in civilian machinery fell sharply, from 8 percent in 1963 to 5 per-
cent in 1964. Rates of growth of the three major components in 1963-64
are given by quarter in the chart, and rates of growth for 63 major com-
modities are given by quarter in the table. **
1. Total Civilian Industrial Production
The increase in Soviet civilian industrial production in the first
9 months of 1963 implied that growth for the year 1963 would be at about
The percentages for years before 1964 are derived from the ORR
index of Soviet civilian industrial production. The percentage for 1.964
is based on the sample of items listed in the table. Production of com-
modities shown in the table is reported quarterly in plan fulfillment
reports. The ORR index of civilian industrial production reflects a
more extensive coverage of items reported for the year as a whole in
the Soviet statistical yearbooks as well as CIA estimates for products
such as electronics, shipbuilding, aircraft, and nonferrous metals.
For a complete list of the sample for the civilian industrial production
index, see CIA/RR ER 63-29, Index of Civilian Industrial Production in
the USSR, September 1963, UNCLASSIFIED.
** The indexes for the major sectors shown in the chart for 1963-64
are based on the sample of items listed in the table.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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the same level as in 1960-62, but a sharp drop in the rate of growth in
the last 3 months of 1963 resulted in a decline for the year as a whole
compared with the previous 3-year average. An upturn in the rate of
increase in the first 3 months of 1964, especially in industrial materials,
suggested that the poor performance in the previous quarter was a "pause"
and that the level of growth prevailing in 1960-62 could be restored. The
improved performance in the first quarter of 1964, however, was followed
by a relapse in all three major sectors in the second quarter. In the last
half of the year an increase in the rate of growth for consumer goods was
the only encouraging sign. Rates of increase in industrial materials were
below those of the first half of the year, and production of civilian machinery
continued to slide to the lowest levels of growth since 1951-52.
2. Civilian Machinery
The most notable development in 1964 was the continued deceleration
in the growth of production of civilian machinery. Production of metal-
lurgical equipment, diesel and electric locomotives, and forging press
machines actually fell, and percentage increases of only 1 to 3 percent
were registered for machine tools, trucks, buses and automobiles,
tractors, agricultural equipment, and weaving looms. Sizable increases
(but still below plan) in production of chemical and petroleum equipment
and the delivery to agriculture of substantial numbers of fertilizer and
herbicide spreaders reflected the high priority of the chemical program.
The slowdown in the production of civilian machinery may be ex-
plained in part by the confusion attributable to the attempted conversion
of machine building plants to production of chemical equipment. its The
current campaign for improving the reliability and service life of new
machinery also may have contributed to the quantitative slowdown.
3. Industrial Materials
After an exceptionally poor performance in the fourth quarter of
1963 (an increase of 3. 5 percent) the rate of growth for industrial
materials in 1964 returned to the average of the previous 4 years (6 to
7 percent). Moreover, production of most major categories of materials
For evidence that the conversion program outlined a year ago is not
going as planned, see CIA/RR CB 65-5, Lag in Soviet Efforts to Conscript
Plants to Produce Chemical Equipment, January 1965, SECRET.
S-E-C-R E T
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exceeded the goals set for 1964. As expected, there were large increases
(17 to 35 percent) in production of important chemicals -- fertilizers,
other agricultural chemicals, fibers, and plastics.
The rate of increase in total production of primary energy in 1964
was maintained at the level of 1960-63 (7 to 7. 5 percent per year). Al-
though the increase in production of crude oil and gas (9 percent combined)
was the lowest since World War II, this was offset by an upturn in the low
rates of growth that had prevailed since 1959 in production of coal.
A high rate of increase in consumption of electric power (11 to 12 per-
cent) persisted in the face of the over-all slowdown in industrial growth.
In the period 1955-60 the rate of growth for production of electric power
exceeded the rate for over-all industrial production (including military)
by less than 50 percent. In 1961-62 the differential increased to about
three-fourths and was followed by 2 years (196364) of rates of increase
in consumption of electric power that doubled those estimated for aggre-
gate industrial output.
4. Consumer Nondurable Goods
The low and declining rates of increase recently prevailing in produc-
tion of consumer nondurable goods finally were reversed in the second
half of 1964. This upturn was due to an acceleration in production of
processed foods -- up almost 7 percent. The depressed rates of growth
in processed foods in the first half of 1964 reflected the effects of the
almost disastrous harvest in 1963 and the distress slaughtering of live-
stock in late 1963 because of the shortage of livestock feed. A return
to normal or above-normal weather conditions in agriculture in 1964
resulted in a greatly improved supply of materials (with the exception
of meat) in the latter part of 1964. The lower production of meat --
down one-fourth for the year -- Was partly offset by a rise of more than
a tenth in the fish catch.
Although there was only a small absolute increase in the growth of
production of soft goods in 1964, the rate of increase of 4 to 5 percent
was twice as high as in 1963 and matched the performance in 1960-62.
25X1A
Analyst:
S-E-C-R-E-T
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USSR: Rates of Growth in Production of Civilian Industrial Commodities a/
1963-64
Percentage Change from the Corresponding Period of the Previous Year
Periods in 1963
Periods in 1964
Commodity
Jan-Sep
Oct-Dec
Full Year
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Full Year
Usable iron ore
8.3
4.5
7.3
7.3
5.2
2.2
10.2
6.2
Pig iron
6.6
4.9
6.2
8.5
3.4
6.8
6.7
6.3
Crude steel
5.3
4.6
5.1
7.2
4.5
6.0
6.3
6,0
Rolled. steel
5.7
3.5
5.1
7.1
5.1
7.9
4.4
6.1
Steel pipe
11.4
6.5
10.1
6.9
1.9
0.3
-0.9
2.0
Fuels and power
Electric power
N.A.
N.A.
11.6
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
ii.4
Of which:
Central supply /
15.1
14.7
15.0
12.6
11.5
12.2
12.0
12.1
Coal
2.3
4.1
2.8
5.3
3.1
3.7
4.7
4.2
Petroleum, crude
10.9
9.8
10.6
10.0
8.0
9.6
7.3
8.7
Gas
22.4
19.4
21.6
17.7
23.5
23.8
16.9
20.2
Chemicals
Sulfuric acid.
12.1
12.7
12.3
13.0
10.9
12.4
8.3
11.1
Caustic soda
10.0
7.1
9.2
10.8
8.5
8.9
11.5
9.9
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USSR: Rates of Growth in Production of Civilian Industrial Commodities
1963-64
(Continued)
Percentage Change from the Corresponding Period of.the Previous Year
Periods in 1963
Periods in 1964
Commodity Jan-Sep Oct-Dec Full Year Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Se Oct-Dec Full Year
Industrial materials
Chemicals (Continued.)
Soda ash
.9.0
9.4
9.1
10.1
8.0
8.9
5.2
8.0
Mineral fertilizers
14.1
19.0
15.5
19.6
27.8
35.7
29.5
28.4
Artificial and synthetic fibers
12.7
7.3
11.2
14.3
14.8
18.8
20.0
17.1
Automobile tires
7.8
9.5
8.2
10.0
7.1
8.9
5.7
8.1
Plastics and resins
N.A.
N.A.
24.6
25.7
28.7
N.A.
N.A.
22.2
Pesticides and herbicides
N.A.
N.A.
24.6
50.4
42.5
N.A.
N.A.
35.0
Cement
8.8
-0.1
6.4
1.3
5.2
7.9
11.0
6.4
Precast, reinforced. structurals
(concrete)
13.4
-0.9
7.4
12.2
9.6
8.7
6.0
9.0
Window glass
1.0
5.1
2.1
16.7
24.8
6.7
-5.3
10.0
Asbestos cement shingles
3.6
2.6
3.3
6.7
3.8
3.4
4.9
5.0
Commercial timber haulage
6.1
-2.0
3.3
4.0
4.0
0.0
3.2
2.8
Paper
2.9
5.7
3.6
6.1
5.9
6.1
6.0
6.o
Furniture
12.5
2.7
10.0
10.3
7.6
3.6
3.9
6.3
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USSR: Rates of Growth in Production of Civilian Industrial Commodities
1963-64
(Continued.)
aJ
Periods in 1963
Periods in 1964
Commodity Jan-Sep Oct-Dec Full Year Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Full Year
Civilian machinery
Producer durables
Chemical equipment J
10.7
5.4
7.9
13.0
16.8
23.6
22.0
19.0
Metallurgical equipment
(-1.2)
(-3.4)
-1.7
(-3.4)
(-3.4)
(0.0)
(0.0)
-l07
Oil equipment
(-3.2)
(-10.6)
-5.1
2.0
11.6
(38.0)
(38.0)
21.7
Agricultural equipment J
17.0
20.3
17.4
8.1
4.8
-2.5
-4.8
1.0
Instruments J
15.0
5.3
12.4
9.7
4.4
4.6
1.6
5.0
Trucks, buses, and automobiles
2.5
-1.0
1.6
2.7
3.4
3.3
1.4
2.7
Tractors
14.9
9.1
13.3
-2.8
0.2
3.3
3.6
1.1
Metalcutting machine tools
3.0
3.8
3.2
0.2
-1.3
1.1
3.0
0.8
Turbines (kilowatt-hours)
9.4
-21.6
-0.2
-3.6
-8.0
3.1
55.1
11.2
Generators for turbines
(7.8)
(7.1)
7.4
(3.0)
(3.0)
(11.7)
(11.7)
8.0
Electric motors
9.6
9.4
9.6
7.0
4.8
2.9
3.0
4.4
Diesel locomotives
-1.0
12.6
2.4
15.4
4.6
-6.8
-18.1
-2.3
Electric locomotives
6.8
-3.1
4.2
5.7
0.6
-10.3
1.3
-0.8
Weaving looms
9.3
-7.0
5.3
-1.6
3.2
3.2
3.8
2.1
Excavators
6.6
-1.7
4.4
6.8
11.1
15.1
19.1
13.1
Forging press machines
4.6
-2.0
2.7
-1.2
1.2
1.0
-1.4
-0.1
Television sets
13.0
17.0
14.1
21.4
16.0
20.7
14.3
18.0
Washing machines
27.5
25.8
27.0
28.8
25.3
24.2
22.5
25.0
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USSR: Rates of Growth in Production of Civilian Industrial Commodities a
1963-64
(Continued)
Percent e Change from the Corresponding Period of the Previous Year
Periods in 1963
Periods in 1964
Commodity
Jan-Sep
Oct-Dec
Full Year
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-De.c
Full Year
Civilian machinery
Consumer durables (Continued)
Refrigerators
9.3
7.0
8.7
18.1
22.0
23.9
33.2
24.5
Radios and radio phonographs
605
25.0
12.9
80o
1108
-1.6
-15.5
-O.8
Motorcycles and motor scooters
5.0
2.0
4.2
6.2
5.6
5.5
7.4
6.1
Bicycles and motor bikes
8.7
0.6
6.5
8.5
7.4
8.0
8.0
8.0
Clocks
4.1
3.1
3.9
10.0
5.9
5.9
1.4
5.9
Consumer nondurable goods
Cotton fabrics
2.1
6.5
3.2
5.0
5.7
7.6
5.3
5.9
Woolen fabrics
-0.3
2.4
O.4
1.7
2.9
-2.4
-1.6
0.0
Linen fabrics
5.4
4.3
5.1
7.0
5.4
12.9
207
6.8
Si
lk fabrics
4.2
-5.0
1.7
1.5
;300
3.5
5.2
3.3
Le
ather footwear
1.2
2.1
1.4
4.3
0.9
1.8
5.0
3.0
Me
at d/
20.2
307
12.6
-10.6
-25,0
-22.8
-27.0
-23.0
Mi
lk products
2.8
0.0
1.9
1.9
5.5
8.1
23.1
9.3
Bu
tter
-4.9
-1507
-6.5
-11,6
-0.1
(18.3)
(18.3).
8.9
Ve
getable oil d/
707
(1.0)
4.6
1.0
-6.0
(7,5)
(705)
2.0
Ca
nned. goods
10.7
0.4
8.0
11.1
8.4
18.2
1101
14.0
Kn
itted outerwear
(6.7)
(5.5)
6.4
(13.0)
(13.0)
(19.0)
(19-0)
16.o
Kn
itted underwear
(607)
(6.9)
6.8
(13.2)
(13.2)
(18.8)
(18.8)
16.o
Fi
sh
9.6
22.9
12.1
12.1
6.1
1203
16.6
11.3
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USSR: Rates of Growth in Production of Civilian Industrial Commodities a/
1963-64
(Continued)
Percentage Change from the Corresponding Period. of the Previous Year
Periods in 1963 Periods in 1964 .
Commodity Jan-Sep Oct-Dec Full Year Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Full Year
Consumer nondurable goods
(Continued.)
Soap 11.1 1.9 8.5 6.9 7.1 0.5 1.2 4.0
Sausage 7.8 14.4 9.6 6.0 1.8 -1.3 -5.2 0.0
Confectionery products (6.7) (1.6) 5.4 8.9 11.1 (14.2) (1)+.2) 11.9
a. Unless otherwise indicated, both annual and quarterly rates of growth are computed from production data ex-
pressed in physical units. The rates of increase by quarters for 1963 and 1964 reflect changes in absolute
levels of production in 1964 compared with absolute levels of production within the corresponding period of 1962
and 1963. Because the published data for periods within a given year are rounded (in physical units or ruble
values of production) and. because of the possible undetected revision of quarterly production data for the pre-
ceding year, a slight possible revision may be introduced in the production of any one commodity.
Production data (expressed as absolute quantities) are published quarterly during the year. Significant
official revisions of the quarterly production data for 1962 and 1963 could be detected. because of the publica-
tion during 1963 and 1964 of quarterly performance data. Thus the comparison of cumulative measures of absolute
production published for 1963 and. 1964 was related to the cumulative production of 1962 and 1963 by means of
index numbers. If a comparison of cumulative indexes of growth indicated that revisions had been made in the
official data, the data on absolute levels of production, originally published in 1962 and 1963, were adjusted.
Where quarterly data are not available, half-year percentages have been used. (shown in parentheses) -- for
example, the over-all rates of increase for the second. half of 1964 are shown for both the third and fourth
quarters.
b. The electric power industry (central supply) produces 95 percent of the urban supply of electricity. The
remaining .5 percent of the supply in urban areas is generated by small-subsidiary plants attached to individual
enterprises. In addition, about 5 percent of total production of electricity is produced. by small generating
stations in rural areas, mostly in agricultural enterprises.
c. Percentage change computed from production expressed in rubles.
d. Excluding production of collective farms and individual households.
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USSR: RATES OF GROWTH FOR MAJOR COMPONENTS
OF CIVILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, 1963 AND 1964
(Percentage Change From Corresponding Period of Previous Year)
5.1 5.1
CONSUMER NONDURABLE GOODS
SECRET
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March 1965
280
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DAD/RR
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OAD/RR - Trudy 25X1A
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192
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Filed in St P C
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18 Mar
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SUBJECT: Distribution of Current Support Brief No. 63-14,
?-
Continued Slowdown to met Civilt to Industrial Production. in 1964
March 1945 (SEC
:T)
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Slowdown in Soviet Civilian Industrial Production in 1964 -- March 1965
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231 - 280 Records Center
Approved For Release 2001/04/17: CIA-RDP7SM,Q '00140001-1
U it l ! dsetassiticayaa
 CR ET
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200140001-1
Ylarch 1965
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD/CR
I+"ROM Chief, Publications Staff, ORR
SUBJECT . Transmittal of Material
It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR a 65-14,
Continued S l o w d o w n in Soviet Civilian Industrial Production in lam
+ar mere orwar a as follows:
State, INR Communications Center,
Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg.
Suggested distribute"ors for
Embassies in Berlin, )4aacow,
a London
25X1A
The dissersn,!t,
this memorandum has begin
'k- it -
Attachments:
Copies 0
65-1#
[EYED
IA-RDF7.T 1003A002200140001-1
 Approved For Release 2001/0~ A-RDP79T01003A002200140001-1
Project No. 14.5227
Report Series CIA/RR CB 65-14
Continued Slowdown in Soviet Civilian Industrial Production in 1964 --
March 1965 (Secret)
Responsible Analyst and Branch
25X1A
A/U
RECOMMENDED DISTRIBUTION TO STATE POSTS
Berlin, Germany
Bangkok, Thailand
Mexico
Bucharest, Romania
Djakarta., Indonesia
Guatemala
Budapest, Hungary
Hong Kong
Panama
Moscow, USSR
Rangoon, Burma
Brazillia, Brazil
Prague, Czechoslovakia
Kuala Lumpur, Malaya
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Sofia, Bulgaria
Saigon, Vietnam
Bogota, Colombia
Warsaw, Poland
Seoul, Korea
Santiago, Chile
Singapore, British Malaya
La Paz, Bolivia
Europe
Taipei, Formosa
Montevideo, Uruguay
Tokyo, Japan
Caracas, Venezuela
Belgrade, Yugoslavia
Vientiane, Laos
Bern, Switzerland
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Bonn, Germany
Colombo, Ceylon
Brussels, Belgium
Yaounde, Cameroun
Copenhagen, Denmark
Near East & South Asia
Leopoldville, Congo
Addis Ababa, Ethopia
Geneva, Switzerland
Ankara, Turkey
Accra, Ghana
Helsinki, Finland
Athens, Greece
Abidjan, Ivory Coast
The Hague, Netherlands
Cairo, Egypt
Nairobi, Kenya
Lisbon, Portugal
Damascus, Syria
Monrovia, Liberia
,..-London, England
Kabul, Afghanistan
Tripoli., Libya
Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Karachi, Pakistan
Rabat, Morocco
Madrid, Spain
New Delhi, India
Lagos, Nigeria
Oslo, Norway
Nicosia, Cyprus
Mogadiscio, Somal
Paris, France
Tehran, Iran
Khartoum, Sudan
Rome, Italy
Baghdad, Iraq
Tunis, Tunisia
Stockholm, Sweden
Tel Aviv, Israel
Pretoria, South Africa
Vienna, Austria
Beirut, Lebanon
Algiers, Algeria
Amman, Jordon
Cotonou, Dahomey
Jidda, Saudi Arabia
Dakar, Senegal
li
Bamako, Ma
Wellington, New Zealand
Ottawa, Canada
Manila, Philippines
Canberra, Australia
MelbourAepproveJPorll elease 2001/04/17: CIA-RDP79
SECRET
 RECORD OF REVIEW OF ORR PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURITY/SAN
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and declassification
'A6ROVAL