PROJECT NO. S-995, THE AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC. 1963

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• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 12, 1963
• Content Type: MEMO

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Office Memorandum ? UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
TO s Publications Staff, ORR DAIR:12 June 1963
ATTN :
PROM : R/AG
25X1A
SUBJECT: Project No. S-995, The Agricultural Outlook in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, 1963
R/AG certifies that none of the source material used in the above
report has a higher classification than CONFIDIENTIAL, that no controlled
material was used, and that no NOFORN appeared on any of the documents
used in the preparation of the report.
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CONFIDENTIAL
Current Support Brief
THE AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
1963
CIA/RR CB 63-52
17 June 1963
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CONFIDENTIAL
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the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
'Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
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C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
THE AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
1963
Current prospects are that the harvest for 1963 in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc probably will not be any better than the mediocre harvest of last
year, although weather conditions during the remainder of the crop
season will be most significant in determining the final outcome.
Fall-sown grains in the USSR as well as in some of the European
Satellites were adversely affected by a dry fall and a severe winter.
As a result, there have been higher than normal rates of winterkill
of fall-sown crops in some areas. Consequently, prospects for grain
crops sown in the fall of 1962 in the USSR are judged to be only fair
and range from fair to poor in the European Satellites.
In Communist China, there probably will be little if any improve-
ment in the early grain crop above that harvested in 1962, primarily
because of the current drought in some of the areas growing early rice.
In North Korea and North Vietnam, prospects are that the 1963 crop
will not be much larger than that harvested in 1962.
1. USSR
After an inauspicious beginning the 1963 crop year in the USSR
as of mid-May has begun to develop more normally. At this time,
prospects for the winter grain crop appear to be fair. The unusually
warm weather from 20 April to mid-May has permitted an acceleration
of spring fieldwork, and most of the delays previously reported in spring
planting have been overcome. However, reserves of soil moisture in
some of the areas of the new lands are reported to be low, and another
disappointing harvest in that region may be forthcoming.
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The area seeded to winter grains in 1962 (for harvest in 1963)
increased by about 5 million hectares above that in 1961 (for harvest
in 1962). This increase in winter grains, however, was at least
partly negated by unusually dry conditions in the fall that prevented
germination in some areas, and by harsh winter conditions that re-
sulted in some winterkill, especially in parts of the central blacksoil
zone, northeastern Ukraine, and Rostovskaya and Volgogradskaya
Oblasts. In general, moisture reserves at the end of April in most
of the winter grain areas were reasonably good and the condition of
the crop at mid-May was reported to be satisfactory.
A record area of about 153 million hectares is to be seeded this
spring -- an increase of about 9 million hectares above that of 1962
(see the table). Some of this increase resulted from the need to
reseed winter grains that failed to germinate or suffered winterkill.
The remainder of the increase, if plans are fulfilled, will be caused
by the seeding of grasslands and fallow lands under Khrushchev's
"plow-up" program.
Although spring sowing was delayed by 2 to 3 weeks in some parts
of the European USSR because of unusually cold weather, a favorable
warm trend developed after 20 April, and most of the delays in the
spring planting of grain crops were overcome by mid-May. The plant-
ing of some other crops -- sunflowers and sugar beets, in particular --
however, was well behind the normal schedule.
In contrast to the late spring in the European USSR, much of the
new lands area of western Siberia and northern Kazakh SSR experienced
an early spring, with fieldwork beginning 10 to 15 days earlier than
usual in Tselinny Kray and the southern parts of Omskaya and Novosi-
birskaya Oblasts. However, a severe cold spell in mid-April that
dropped temperatures to as low as 0?F negated the early spring to
some extent, and the progress of spring sowing by mid-May was only
about normal. Cool weather continued to plague some regions of the
new lands with night frosts recorded in mid-May. Moisture reserves
at the end of April were low in many parts of the new lands, and another
disappointing harvest may be forthcoming from these areas.
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The planting of cotton was practically complete by mid-May. How-
ever, heavy rains in parts of Uzbek and Tadzhik SSR's, the two most
important cotton-growing republics, destroyed some early plantings
and will require some replanting. The development of sunflowers
and sugar beets, the sowing of which is generally completed by mid-
May, is well behind schedule -- in some areas by as much as 2 to 3
weeks. The severe winter also will have a negative effect on the fruit
crop for 1963. Some vineyards and fruit trees were destroyed by the
extremely low temperatures in the southern regions of European USSR,
especially in Moldavia ASSR where, for the first time in 50 years,
temperatures dropped to -310F.
At the present time, any forecast of crops in general, but particu-
larly spring-sown crops, is premature because weather during the re-
mainder of the growing season and during harvesting will largely de-
termine the size of the harvest for 1963. It should be remembered that
1958, a banner year for Soviet agriculture, likewise had an inauspicious
beginning. It appears unlikely, however, that conditions in 1958 will be
duplicated in 1963. The late spring in 1963, combined with the excep-
tionally large quantity of fieldwork to be done in a shorter period, has
placed considerable pressure on Soviet farmers. Numerous press re-
ports concerning the poor quality of fieldwork in many areas are indica-
tive of the speeding up of field operations that could have a negative
effect on the 1963 harvest.
The long, severe winter, combined with inadequate feed supplies to
maintain the record herds of livestock, resulted in some distress slaugh-
tering in the first quarter of 1963. Under normal weather conditions,
feed supplies should improve above those of 1962, and some increases
in production of meat and milk can be expected in 1963.
2. China
As of mid-May 1963, estimates of the condition of the early grain
crops in Communist China indicate that the harvest may be only equal
to that harvested last year. Information received during April suggests
that soil moisture in the major wheat areas was somewhat better than
earlier forecasts. However, because the early grain harvest normally
accounts for only one-fourth of the total, the amount of grain harvested
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in 1963 will be determined largely by the weather during the remainder
of the current harvest year (June - October).
Weather conditions have varied widely in Communist China during
recent months. Conditions generally have been favorable for the early
rice crops through the eastern and central provinces of China, although
recent heavy rains may have caused some flood damage. Prospects for
the early rice crop are especially poor in the south and southeastern
coastal areas of China. Crop conditions range from fair to poor in the
rest of the country.
Moisture conditions are the most critical in the Han-chiang and
Pearl River Deltas of Kwangtung Province and in southeastern Fukien
Province. Rainfall has been negligible in these major rice-producing
regions for several months, probably causing a reduction in the acreage
of early rice and lowering the prospects for the rice that has been trans-
planted. Moisture conditions over the remaining areas of Kwangtung and
Fukien Provinces are mediocre. Temperature and moisture conditions
have been reported as favorable in the northern half of the important
rice area of Szechwan, but rain is needed in the remainder of Szechwan
in order to prevent crop damage.
Although the prospects are for a slight increase in yields of winter
wheat in North China, wheat acreages appear to be no higher and in some
areas lower than in 1962. In addition, a cold snap early in April may
have caused some crop damage in northern Anhwei, and an exceptionally
dry winter in the central and southern regions of China, coupled with a
reduction in the sown acreage, has lowered the prospects for winter
wheat in those areas.
Conditions also have been reported to be poor in much of the regions
growing spring wheat and soybeans. Precipitation in Northwest China,
an area of marginal rainfall, generally has remained well below normal
since November 1962. Furthermore, since July 1962 precipitation has
been well below normal in most of the important regions of Northeast
China growing soybeans and spring wheat.
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The regime's continuing concern over the food situation is reflected
in editorials in the Peking newspapers, which stress the overriding im-
portance of the agricultural sector and point out the need for increasing
the amount of industrial support for agriculture.
3. North Korea
Crop conditions appear to have developed favorably in North Korea
up through the end of April. Precipitation ranged from 60 to 80 percent
of normal over the major agricultural areas between October 1962 and
March 1963. Rainfall in April was above average, and soil conditions
were reported to be favorable for spring planting. However, a favorable
distribution of rainfall will be needed through May and June for an average-
to-good rice crop. Statements made by the regime earlier in the year
indicated that the food situation would be improved in 1963. Based on the
present outlook, it is believed that the regime will be doing well to main-
tain rations at the current level during 1963.
4. North Vietnam
In North Vietnam, drought conditions have persisted since last fall,
and the outlook for the early rice crop, which represents approximately
one-third of the total rice crop, is poor. The unfavorable development
of the early rice crop apparently has been further aggravated in April
by below-normal rainfall and by insect damage. The present poor out-
look of the early rice crop precludes any short-run improvement in the
existing tight food supply situation in North Vietnam.
5. European Satellites
In the European Satellites, agricultural difficulties persisted through-
out the winter of 1962 and the spring of 1963. The outlook for the fall-
sown crops (wheat, rye, barley, and rape) is not favorable. Although
the weather has been the most important factor affecting the current out-
look, recent policy measures designed to tighten political control in the
countryside and the continued presence of passive resistance by the
peasants also have adversely affected the livestock programs of East
Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary.
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The European Satellites experienced a sharp decline in production
of grain in 1962. With stocks of grain already low and the costs of
additional imports high in terms of valuable foreign exchange, agri-
cultural plans for 1963 called for an expansion of the area sown to
grains. In response to this need the acreage sown to wheat, rye, and
fall barley reportedly was increased in Czechoslovakia, East Germany,
and Hungary. In Bulgaria and Rumania the plans for 1963 called for
expansion of the corn acreage.
Throughout most of the European Satellites the weather during the
critical fall seeding time was unusually dry. Fall-sown grain failed
to germinate or developed poorly. Some of the planned acreage was
not seeded. An early frost also was reported in many areas further
retarding plant growth. The winter in East Europe was one of the
coldest in the past decade and extended through mid-March. Moreover,
severe freezing and heavy snowfall did not permit the use of pastures
for livestock.
Although deep snow cover protected most of the grain area, winter
damage ranging from 10 to 15 percent of the fall-sown grain was re-
ported in Czechoslovakia and East Germany. Polish officials have
admitted that some damage occurred to winter grains, but recently
maintained that the over-all condition of the fall-sown rye crop was
good and that of winter wheat was average. However, significant
winter damage affecting from 30 to 50 percent of the fall-sown rape
crops has been reported in Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland.
The combined effects of a dry fall, winterkill, and late spring lower the
prospects for a good harvest of winter grain in Eastern Europe.
Heavy snowfalls and low temperatures also delayed spring field-
work throughout the European Satellites -- reportedly from Z to 4
weeks. Moreover, seasonal rains, combined with the melting of the
heavy snows, have caused some flood damage in Czechoslovakia, East
Germany, Hungary, and Poland. Severe damage to crops from spring
floods was reported in Albania. Less crop damage occurred in other
Satellites, but large areas of pasture land in Hungary were inundated.
More favorable weather has been reported throughout the Satellites in
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April and May, and the planting of potatoes, sugar beets, and corn
apparently has progressed satisfactorily.
Prospects for an improvement in the livestock situation in the
European Satellites are less favorable than that of crop developments.
The number of livestock declined in nearly all the Satellites in 1962, a
result of the shortfall in the fodder base and institutional changes. The
smaller number of breeding stock this spring, particularly the smaller
number of sows, has reduced the possibility for improvement in meat
supply in Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, and probably Poland.
Rumania has admitted that the meat and livestock problem remains seri-
ous. Food supplies, especially supplies of livestock products, are not
expected to improve until late summer.
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Table
Progress of Spring Sowing in the USSR
1958-63
Thousand Hectares
Date As of
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
5 April
3,100
N.A.
3,583
6,503
4,435
N.A.
10 April
N.A.
7,400
5,395
11,576
7,47o
N.A.
15 April
6,300
11,748
10,900
17,551
13,750
4,760
20 April
10,400
18,449
18,850
24,455
27,975
6,210
25 April
15,950
31,589
28,584
33,449
41,520
11,155
30 April
26,700
N.A.
43,107
45,500
54,150
23,818
5 May
36,870
57,110
54,925
54,603
62,169
4?,386
10 May
52,000
73,076
72,235
71,269
76,934
65,477
15 May
70,500
92,666
89,356
88,000
95,924
89,1o4
20 May
92,000
108,712
109,187
103,900
110,412
113,491
25 May
108,817
118,092
123,000
115,500
125,005
133,600
31 May 2/
120,000
123,342
134,000
125,000
138,517
N.A.
Plan
125,000
125,000
135,000
131,000
144,000
153,000
a. Spring sowing generally is 95 to 100 percent complete by this date.
Analysts:
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SUBJECT: Distribution of Current Support Brief No. 63-524 The
Aigricultural Outlook in the Sino-Soviet Bloc 1 63 --- 17 June 1 63
Sc2/211L. Recipient
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