THE RISING DEATH RATE IN COMMUNIST CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A001300150001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 11, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 24, 1962
• Content Type: BRIEF

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Current Support Brief
CIA/RR CB 62-60 No. Pages 4
24 September 1962
Copy No.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
RETURU TO ARCHIVES & RECORDS UEUT
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This material contains information affecting
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C -0-N -F -I-D -E -N - T -I-A-L
A sharp increase in the death rate in Communist China since 1958
is suggested by cumulative reports of nutritional disorders, weakening
resistance to disease, and a loss of energy resulting from 3 years of
acute shortages of food. Although output ci Mood grains from 1959
to 1961 was at or slightly below the 1957 level of 185 million metric
tons (including tubers on a grain-equivalent basis), the population in-
creased by at least 50 million between 1957 and 1961. The result was
a marked decline in availability of food grains per capita, an increase
in nutritional deficiencies, and a reduction in the rate of growth of the
population.
Estimates of the population made early in 1961 1/ assumed con-
stant fertility and decreasing mortality rates during the first 10 years
of the Communist regime, rising mortality rates during 1959-61, and
constant mortality rates thereafter. On these assumptions it was esti-
mated that the natural rate of increase in the population rose during
the period 1950-58, reaching a peak rate of increase of 25 per thousand
of population in 1958. Because of the food shortage during 1959-61, it
was estimated that the rate of increase in the population was reduced to
20 per thousand by midyear 1961.
By September 1962, however, accumulating reports from Communist
China suggested that malnutrition and diseases caused by nutritional
deficiencies may have caused the rate of increase in the population to
drop below the 20 per thousand estimated for 1961. Both the mainland
press and refugee interviews contain indications of night blindness,
beriberi, edema, amenorrhea (stoppage of menstruation), and the
highly indicative psychological symptoms of lethargy and resignation.
Although it is not possible to assert that these conditions are universal,
the regime's system of control and distribution of food tends to prevent
wide discrepancies in the nutritional level of the population, thus sug-
gesting that a substantial proportion of the entire population of China
may be close to the marginal level of nutrition.
24 September 1962 CIA/RR CB 62-60
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Studies in other countries show that where undernutrition is acute
or prolonged, resistance to disease declines, so that underfed popula-
tions become more subject to infection by communicable ailments than
they would be under normal conditions. Having fallen ill, people re-
cover slowly; physical injuries do not heal easily; exhaustion from over-
work during periods of intense physical activity occurs sooner; and
recuperation is prolonged. The margin for survival is lowered, so
that debilitating diseases become fatal and take a higher toll in mor-
tality. The evidence of serious malnutrition in Communist China pro-
longed over a period of 3 years suggests a substantially higher level
of mortality than was previously estimated.
Although the effects of malnutrition are reflected with little delay
in higher mortality rates, it does not follow that birth rates are affected
either as promptly or to the same degree. Refugee reports of amen-
orrhea, lack of sexual desire, and declining number of births in local
areas of Communist China indicate that malnutrition is in fact affecting
the fertility of the population, but the data are insufficient to permit pre-
cise judgments on changes in the birth rates. On the basis of experience
in other populations, the effects of malnutrition on fertility are not uni-
form and tend to vary with the extent and type of nutritional deficiencies.
Moreover, the changes in fertility rates are believed to be relatively
insignificant when compared with the changes in mortality rates.
Given these assumptions about the trend in fertility and mortality,
there remains the question of what quantitative values to assign to them.
Although this question cannot be resolved by a mathematically objective
method, several approximate figures for the rate of natural increase
can be suggested.
Starting in 1958, various rates of population increase may be as-
sumed (see the accompanying chart). In 1958 a rate of increase of
2. 5 percent was assumed on the basis of an estimated birth rate of
about 45 per thousand of population and a death rate of 20 per thousand
of population. With constant fertility a rise in the death rate to 25 per
thousand of population would result in a decline in the rate of natural
increase to 2. 0 percent by 1962. This projection, represented by
24 September 1962 CIA/RR CB 62-60
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C-O-N-F-I-D-E -N-T-I-A-L
Series A in the chart, implies a return to the conditions of mortality
supposedly attained about 1953.
A rate of increase of about 1. 5 percent, indicated by Series B,
implies a mortality rate of about 30 per thousand of population, the
level probably existing during the mid-1930's. This level of mor-
tality suggests that all of the gains made in reducing mortality dur-
ing the first 10 years of the Communist regime in China have been
lost during the past 4 years.
The assumption of a rate of increase of 1. 0 percent by 1962, as
reflected in Series C, implies a death rate of 35 per thousand of popu-
lation. If conditions of widespread severe distress were to become
evident within the next few years, the assumption of a zero rate of
increase would be warranted. If a major catastrophe occurred, with
a breakdown in civil administration over significant parts of the more
populous regions of Communist China and general acute starvation,
the result could be a net decrease in the population.
In summary, evidence of sustained malnutrition in Communist
China suggests that the regime is unable to maintain the previous
moderately low level of mortality. It is estimated, therefore, that
the rate of population increase declined from 2. 5 percent in 1958 to
about 1. 5 percent in 1962. This rate of growth, as represented by
Series B, would yield a total population for China at midyear 1962
of 706 million and would mean an annual increment of about 11 mil-
lion in the population instead of the nearly 18 million that might have
been expected in the absence of a food crisis.
24 September 1962 CIA/RR CB 62-60
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Analyst:
25X1A
Coord:
Source:
1, EIC... EIC SR5-S2, Population of the Countries of the Sino-
Soviet Bloc, Selected Years, 1938-80, April 1962. C.
24 September 1962 CIA/RR. CB 62-60
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