EXPANSION OF BULGARIA'S LEAD INDUSTRY AND ITS EFFECT ON BLOC AND FREE WORLD LEAD SUPPLIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A001100030001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 15, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 22, 1961
• Content Type: BRIEF

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CIA/RR-CB-61-36
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Copy No.- 'C'
22 June 1961
EXPANSION OF BULGARIA'S LEAD INDUSTRY AND ITS EFFECT ON
BLOC AND FREE WORLD LEAD SUPPLIES
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
TINUED CONTROL
O
N
SECRET/NOFORN/C
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This report represents the immediate views of the
originating intelligence components of the Office
of Research and Reports. Comments are solicited.
This document contains information affecting the national defense of
the United States, within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18
USC, Sections 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which
in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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EXPANSION OF BULGARIA'S LEAD INDUSTRY AND ITS EFFECT ON
BLOC AND FREE WORLD LEAD SUPPLIES
The current expansion of the Bulgarian lead industry has so im-
proved the lead position of the Sino-Soviet Bloc as to have a poten-
tially adverse effect on the Free World lead industry. In large part
because of sharply rising production in Bulgaria, the Bloc lead posi-
tion has changed from one of deficiency to one of over-supply, permit-
ting exports to the Free World. 1/ Inasmuch as these exports to West-
ern countries have intensified an over-supply of lead currently exist-
ing in Free World markets, the principal Free World lead producing
countries recently expressed concern over the prospects of increased
Bloc exports.
The Bulgarian lead industry in general has achieved outstanding
results in a comparatively short period of operation. In the past
six years, output of lead has increased about eight times, jumping
from 5,000 tons in 1955 to 40,000 tons in 196.0. From only about 1.5
percent of the Sino-Soviet Bloc's total production of lead in 1955,
Bulgaria accounted for 7 percent in 1960. Whereas the average annual
increase in the production of lead of the Sino-Soviet Bloc as a whole
amounted to about 10 percent during 1955-60, that of Bulgaria was a-
bout 50 percent. In the per capita production of lead, Bulgaria ranked
sixth in the Bloc in 1955 and first in 1960.
Despite a marked rise in domestic consumption since 1955, the
growth in production has been such that Bulgaria has been able to
increase exports from about 2,000 tons in 1956 to more than 23,000
tons in 1960. European Bloc countries absorbed the bulk of these
exports before 1958, but since then roughly 20 percent of total Bul-
garian exports have gone to the West. These shipments from Bulgaria
to the Free World, estimated at 14,000 tons, have constituted about 25
percent of the Bloc's total exports of lead since 1958. 2/ Bulgarian
production, consumption, and export of lead during 1.955--60 were as
follows (in metric tons):
Year
Production a/
Consumption
1955
5,100
2,000 b/
1956
6,000
4,000 b/
1957
19,300
5,200 b/
1958
26,100
5,400 b/
1959
33,000
9,500 b/
1960
40,000
16,600 c/
a. /
b. Production minus exports.
C. 4/
d. /
e.
f. Production minus consumption.
22 June 1961 CIA/RR-CB-61-36
SECRETVNOFORN/CONTINUED CONTROL
Export
2,900 d/
2,000 d/
14,100 d/
20,700 e/
23,400 e/
23,400 f/
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As Bulgaria's exports of lead have increased, the dependence of
the Bloc on Free World supplies, as measured by net imports, has de-
creased.. For the Bloc as a whole, net imports of lead have declined
steadily since 1956 and a net export was achieved for the first time
in 1960. The estimated net trade in lead between the Bloc and. the
.Free World for the years 1955-60 is as follows (in thousand metric
tons): 7/
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
1960
Bloc net imports
14.1
26.9
15.8
9.9
3.3
Bloc net exports
--
--
--
--
--
11.1
Free World concern over the possibility of increased exports of
lead from the Bloc and the resulting significance to world lead mar-
kets was shown at the recent meetings of the International Lead and
Zinc.Study Group,* held in Mexico City. The Free World supply of
lead in 1960 exceeded consumption by about 90,000 tons; in addition,
substantial stocks of unsold metal already existed among producing
countries. 8/ Because of this, the Study Group took specific action
to curtail the 1961 output of leading Free World producers and. ex-
pressed the hope that the Soviet Union, Poland, and Bulgaria would
not increase the level of their exports above those of 1960. 9/
The Bulgarian lead industry plans to continue its expansion pro-
gram during the 1960's, however, and by 1965 .the output of lead is
expected to be 93,000 tons, of which about 40,000 tons will be avail-
able for export. The additional output will be obtained from a new
plant being constructed at Plovdiv and from reconstruction and expan-
sion of existing lead producing facilities at Kurdzhali and Kurilo.
Bulgaria has ample reserves of ore for the planned output, possessing,
in terms of metal content, an estimated 4.6 million tons of lead in
domestic deposits. 10/ Thus the Free World lead industry seems to
have cause for concern, for any increased exports from Bulgaria will
complicate seriously the attempts of the International Study Group to
stablize lead supply and demand.
Organ zed under United Nations sponsorship to promote cooperation
among lead and zinc producing countries in balancing the supply
and demand in the lead-zinc industry.
22 June 1961 CIA/RR-CB-61-36
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/NOFORN/CONTINUED.CONTROL
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Analyst:
Sources;
SECRET/NOFORN/CONTINUED CONTROL.
25X1A
25X1 C
25X1 C
1. CIA. ORR Project 24.3119, Lead in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,
to be published. S/NOFORN.CONT CONTROL.
2. Ibid.
3.CI Economic Intelligence Statistical Handbook, 1.961,
to be published. S.
4. CIA. MD Summary No. 2442, Weekly Economic Reports on
Eastern Europe (No. 281), 13 Jan 60 , p. 2. OFF USr
5. JPRS: Translation No. 8033, Bulgarian Foreign Trade, 1955-57,
3 Apr 61, p. 29. U.
6. Bulgaria, Bunshna Turgoviya na Narodna Republik ulg:ariya,
1958-1959, Sofia, 1960, p. 18. U.
7. CIA.. R Project 2.4.3119 (1, above).
8. London. Metal Industry, 31 Mar 61. U.
9. London, Metal Bulletin., 30 Mar 61.,. , p .,,1.. U.
10. NIS 23, sec 63, Dec S.
22 June 1961 CIA/RR-CB-61-36
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