NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031400270002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 6, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 1, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily (Cable)
Contents
Briefs and Comments
Israel: Policy on Southern Lebanon 1
Nicaragua - Costa Rica: Rising Tensions 2
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Mauritania: Neu Prime Minister 5
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Venezuela: Offshore OiZ Strike 7
Portugal: Budget Approval 8
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NICARAGUA - COSTA RICA: Rising Tensions
//Nicaragua's National Guard appears to be contain-
ing the Sandinista guerrilla offensive in the southwest,
but the fighting has greatly increased tensions between
the Somoza government and neighboring Costa Riea.
//Yesterday Somoza accused Costa Rica of mobilizing
its civil guard to invade Nicaragua and rescue trapped
guerrillas--a highly improbable scenario. The charge was
more likely intended to build Somoza's case against Costa
Rica before the Organization of American States next week
than to justify an attack across the border. Although
Somoza would like to clean out guerrilla sanctuaries in
Costa Rica or bring more OAS border observers into the
area, he believes he has the Sandinistas on the run and
25X1 probably would not take action against Costa Rica that
would trigger Panama's joining the fray.//
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ISRAEL: Policy on Southern Lebanon
An unofficial cease-,fire z~esterdaz~ appears to have
ended nearZr~ a week of artillerrg exchanges in southern
Lebanon between Israeli-backed Christians commanded by
renegade Lebanese ArmzU Major Haddad and the Palestinians,
~znd shelling bU Haddad's men of the UN zone. The de-
terioration of securitrJ in the area resulting from the
latest exchanges marl jeopardize the continued presence
of the UN force, whose mandate comes up for renewal in
mid-June. Several countries aZreadzJ have ex ressed anger
that_IsraeZ has not restrained Haddad, 25X1
Israeli Prime Minister Begin and Defense Minister
Weizman. want to avoid clashes between UN forces and
Fiaddad's militia mainly to minimize friction with the US
over Israeli support for Haddad, In the past, Begin and
Weizman have grudgingly agreed to lean on Haddad, and
they probably remain willing to press him to demonstrate 25X1
minimal restraint. Some senior figures in the Israeli
military, however, may hope that Haddad's revocations
will force the withdrawal of the UN force.
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relish greater freedom to o crate in e anon against
Palestinian commandos. 25X1
The Israeli leadership generally remains skeptical
of the ability of he UN troops to prevent Palestinian
cross-border terrorist attacks. Begin and Weizman pre-
sumably believe that the successful. conclusion of treaty
negotiations with Egypt has given Israel greater latitude
to pursue its preemptive attacks against Palestinians and
their training bases throughout Lebanon. The Israelis 25X1
believe the importance of this objective outweighs in-
creasing criticism of their actions in the UN, a body the
Israelis regard as hostile to them.
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MAURITANIA: New Prime Minister
Mauritania's ruling military committee yesterday
named Defense Minister Khouna HeydaZZa, a former Armed
Forces Chief of Staff, to succeed Prime Minister Bousseif,
who died in a plane crash on Sunday. HeydaZZa seems
ZikeZy to continue Bousseif's search for a negotiated
settlement of the Western Sahara conflict that will leave
Mauritania on good terms with both Moroeeo and Algeria.
The new Prime Minister, however, apparently lacks
Bousseif 's leadership skills and an independent power
base and thus is unlikely to be able to end the internal
power struggle that has plagued Mauritania since the mil-
itary took over Zast July.
Heydalla is not readily identifiable with any of the
factions within the military committee. These factions
largely reflect competition among military officers for
power; they also represent marginally different approaches
to ending the Western Sahara conflict and different lean-
ings toward radical or moderate Arab ideologies. Presi-
dent Saleck, who in recent months has been relegated to
playing a ceremonial role, leads one faction, and cr?n-
tinues--with Iraqi backing--to jockey for power.
Political stability will be further threatened in
the near term by heightened tension between Mauritania's
blacks and Moors. In recent weeks, black students have
been demonstrating throughout the country to protest ed-
ucational policy changes that favor the Arabic language
curriculum used by Moors over the .French system used by
blacks. The black population sees this issue as part of
its larder struggle for political equality with the Moors.
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Venezuela reportedly has made its first commercial
offshore oil strike after having drilled eight dry wells.
According to the Energy Ministry, the initial flow from
the discovery, which is located in the Gulf of Vela, is
2,000 barrels per day; it will be several weeks, however,
before firm production estimates are made. The medium-
grade oil is believed to be an extension of the onshore
Cumarebo field, which was shut down in 1970. Venezuela
drilled in these waters in the early 1970s with incon-
clusive results. The new discovery is a welcome sign in
Venezuela's extensive search for oil--particularly for
light and medium grades--and should help the state-owned
petroleum industry overcome growing domestic criticism
of its expensive offshore exploration program. Offshore
development has a high priority in Caracas's efforts to
replenish declining reserves. At current production
levels, proven reserves will last only 21 years with re-
serves of lighter crudes expected to run out in less than
half this time.
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PORTUGAL: Budget Approval
The Portuguese legislature Wednesday approved inde-
pendent Prime Minister Mota Pinto's austerity budget amid
pronouncements from the Socialist and Communist parties
that they will sponsor separate censure motions against
the government. The approval was expected, despite the
parties' hostility. Inflation has put mounting pressure
on state-funded programs a.nd institutions, which are
operating at last year's budget levels. The absence of
a current budget was also an obstacle to a new agreement
with the International Monetary Fund, which Portugal hopes
will facilitate essential long-term borrowing from abroad.
The Socialists--who when allied with any other major party
command a legislative majority--will submit their censure
motion Monday. Two censure motions, separated by at least
30 days, must be approved to bring down a government. The
Socialists hope to convince Mota Pinto to resign or sub-
mit to a confidence vote without waiting for ,a second
motion. The Prime Minister seems unlikely to quit, how-
ever, and thus could. be ousted. as early as mid-July.
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Top Secret
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