NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031400140001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 7, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 16, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
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National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
16 May 1979
Top Secret
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
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South Africa - Angola: Expected Attacks . . . . 3
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Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as the
final section of the Daily, will often contain materials
that update the Situation Reports and Briefs and Comments.
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BRIEFS AND COMMENTS
SOUTH AFRICA - ANGOLA: Expected Attacks
Recent unusual South African Air Force exercises
may reflect planning for a raid against guerrillas of the
South-West Africa People's Organization in Angola, ac-
,......7' __ _. ,. , o .. ,., -
concentrated deeper inside Angola.
F__ I
If South Africa should decide to launch a cross-
border raid, it might well choose to strike some of the
many small guerrilla staging camps just inside Angola.
Such an operation would satisfy current pressures for re-
taliation while limiting the possibility of a serious
confrontation with Cuban or Angolan forces, which are now
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NATO: Theater Nuclear Arms Control
The first two meetings of NATO's Special Group on
theater nuclear arms control policy have produced some
idea of the approach the West Europeans intend to take.
The West Europeans have only begun to consider negotiat-
ing strategy in detail, however, and defining the linkage
between theater nuclear arms control and force moderniza-
tion will not be easy.
A pattern is emerging in the West European approach.
First, the allies treat theater nuclear arms control as
a step-by-step process. The first step would be to nego-
tiate constraints on such long-range systems as the So-
viet SS-20 missile and perhaps the Backfire bomber
.
Second, most appear to favor worldwide limits on
long-range theater nuclear forces, with subceilings for
European forces. Most allies recognize that the Soviets
could evade a Europe-only agreement by uggling mobile
SS-20 deployments.
Third, the West Europeans prefer to treat theater
nuclear arms control in existing forums rather than in a
new one. They think SALT III would be the proper place
for negotiating long-range theater nuclear arms control,
and some believe that shorter range systems should be
taken up in the mutual and Balanced Force Reduction
Most West European governments believe that firm
arms control proposals are needed if force modernization
programs are to have popular and parliamentary support.
Denmark, Norway, and especially the Netherlands oppose
any increase in NATO reliance on nuclear weapons and want
to delay modernization decisions until arms control ini-
tiatives are thoroughly explored. West Germany and the
UK, on the other hand, stress that force modernization
is the key to the theater nuclear package. West German
Foreign Office and Defense Ministry officials want NATO
to reach a preliminary decision on modernization by
early July.
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The Special Group will continue to discuss arms con-
trol principles and the linkage between modernization and
arms control. It will also take up the relationship be-
tween theater nuclear forces and the Western "Option III"
proposal in the MBFR talks. That proposal would involve
Western withdrawal from Europe of 1,000 nuclear warheads,
36 Pershing missile launchers, and 54 nuclear-capable
F-4s in return for Soviet conventional armed forces re-
ductions. The Pershing component is especially important
because a follow-on missile that would fit existing
Pershing launchers is a prime candidate for NATO deploy-
ment.
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(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from the
production offices of NFAC.)
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Mexico-Cuba
Mexican Foreign Secretary Roel has told US Ambassa-
dor Lucey that fisheries, petroleum, and machinery will
be the principal discussion topics when Presidents Lopez
Portillo and Castro confer beginning tomorrow. Roel
said he assumes the US would have no problem if Mexico
were to sell oil directly to Cuba; on machinery, he
stated that the Cubans are interested in buying equip-
ment not available from the US because of the economic 25X1
embargo. The Foreign Secretary said Lopez Portillo
wanted to know whether he could help the US on any matter
during his talks with Castro.
Lebanon-Syria
President Sarkis yesterday completed two days of
summit talks in Damascus with Syrian President Assad on 25X1
the situation in Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister Huss,
who accompanied Sarkis, reportedly has told journalists
that he and his eight-man cabinet will resign today.
COMMENT: Huss, assuming he does resign, may well be
prime minister in the next government as well. Less cer-
tain is whether it will be composed of non-partisan "tech-
nocrats," politicians, or some combination thereof.
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Portugal
Prime Minister Mota Pinto last night submitted to
parliament a budget for this year with austerity meas-
ures reportedly only slightly less harsh than those re-
jected by the legislature on 22 March. The most notable
concession apparently is a reduction from 56 percent to
35 percent in the ceiling of the tax on the annual sal-
ary bonus accorded Portuguese workers; Mota Pinto's com-
plementary economic plan for 1979--not yet released--
reportedly will raise the ceiling on wage increases only
from 18 percent to 20 percent. Western wire service
reports indicate that most political parties have reacted
negatively to a televised, self-congratulatory speech by
Mota Pinto on Monday night. A vote on the revised budget
proposal may occur near the end of this month.
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Warsaw Pact
Budapest radio yesterday announced the arrival "in
Hungary" of the Pact's Defense Ministers to participate
in the Shield-79 joint exercises. The bloc's foreign
ministers, meanwhile, completed their two-day meeting
in Budapest yesterday.
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West Germany
A Western news agency report, quoting informed
sources in Hannover, the capital of Lower Saxony, asserts
that state Minister-President Albrecht, a Christian
Democrat, will announce today his government's decision
not to allow construction of the proposed nuclear re-
processing plant at Gorleben. He reportedly will, how-
ever, provisionally authorize underground storage of
nuclear waste at that site.
COMMENT: The nuclear power issue had become in-
creasingly prominent in West Germany even before the
Three Mile Island incident, and AZbrecht's apparent de-
cision is something of a victory for the country's
environmental activists. Albrecht, whose party is much
more united in favor of nuclear energy than Chancellor
Schmidt's Social Democrats, discussed the Gorleben issue
with the Chancellor on 30 April; the Minister-President
noted that he would not proceed with nuclear energy pro-
grams while the Social Democrats do not support them.
The reported go-ahead for the nuclear storage site meets
a West German ZegaZ requirement that otherwise would
force the shutdown of existing reactors and deny start-
ups for new ones.
In a lengthy analysis of the Tory foreign policy
team filed yesterday, the US Embassy in London notes
that Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington, his House of
Commons spokesman Sir Ian Gilmour, and Defense Secretary
Pym are all political heavyweights in the Conservative
Party and capable of carrying out the Thatcher govern-
ment's intention to increase the UK's role in international
relations. The backgrounds and opinions of the new team
serve to emphasize certain traditional Tory themes, in-
cluding priority attention to Europe, distrust of the
USSR, business and political ties to the white community
in southern Africa, and a strong defense commitment.
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Queen Elizabeth II yesterday opened the new session
of Parliament with the traditional speech from the throne,
outlining the program of the recently installed Conserv-
ative government of Prime Minister Thatcher. Key ele-
ments of the speech were the pledges to strengthen
Britain's defense posture, promote law and order, cut in-
come taxes, reduce the government's degree of ownership
and control in the industrial sector, and curb the power
of the UK's labor unions.
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The US Embassy in Bangkok reports that after 18
months of stability, Thai politics are shifting back to
the traditional behind-the-scenes maneuvering for polit-
ical and personal advantage. There is also, according
to the Embassy, a growing perception that Prime Minister
Kriangsak, appointed to a second term by King Phumiphon
last Saturday, is not faring well. A majority of the
recently elected lower house of the national legislature
boycotted the formal consultations on Kriangsak's re-
nomination, suggesting that relations between him and
parliament will be trouble-prone. Kriangsak has said
he wants to form a new cabinet by the end of the week,
but the Embassy's contacts with leading Thai politicians
indicate that his chances of forming a broadly based gov-
ernment with some major political party support have
been weakened.
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