NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031200170002-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 14, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: March 20, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
20 March 1979
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
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France: Position on Western Sahara . . . . . . . 9
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Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as the final
section of the DaiZy, will often contain materials that
update the Situation Reports and Briefs and Comments.
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In recent months France has been staking out a more
neutral position in the Western Sahara dispute--a trend
that reflects its assessment of changes of government in
Algeria and Mauritania and its pessimistic view of the
prospects for successful negotiations. The major French
concern is that Moroccan King Hassan might be replaced
by a much more difficult "progressive" leader--a "Moroc-
can Qadhafi." France continues to supply military ma-
teriel to Morocco, but its advisers in Mauritania have
had no combat role since the coup there last summer, and 25X1
the French military presence in Morocco is minimal.
Any perceived shift in France's formerly close sup ort
of Morocco is bound to have an impact in the area.
French officials expressed concern about the situa-
tions in Mauritania and Morocco to the US Embassy in Paris
last week. They agreed that Mauritania is very unstable
and that a change of government is imminent. One official
argued that advocates of a change are restrained by knowl-
edge that Morocco could intervene if a pro-Algerian gov-
ernment emerged in Mauritania. 25X1
The officials note that King Hassan is locked into
a war that is going badly and having consequences that
bode ill for Morocco's stability. One said that the So-
viets are now concentrating on the opportunities for in-
stability in Morocco. French c
The French conceded that the changes in Mauritania
had allowed French-Algerian relations to improve. With
the Mauritanians' cease-fire with the Polisario guer-
rillas, there was no further need for French forces in
Mauritania to defend French citizens, and a French-Al-
gerian dialogue became possible. The French view the
new Algerian leadership as moderate and pragmatic ex-
cept where the Sahara is concerned. France hopes that
the warming trend in Franco-Algerian relations that began
last summer will continue.
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(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from the
production offices of NFAC.)
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President Sarkis told US Ambassador Dean late yester-
day that the Saudis have agreed not to withdraw their
troops from the Arab Deterrent Force until the end of
the week. Sarkis said that while the Syrians have agreed
the Lebanese Army could replace the Saudis at sensitive
military positions in Beirut, Christian militia chief
Bashir Jumayyil in effect wants his men to control those
positions. The President claimed that Defense Minister
Khoury must complete his plans for deployment of the
Army by tomorrow and suggested that successful replace-
ment of the Saudis might induce the Syrians to allow
his government to take over more internal security re-
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sponsibilities.
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Press reports indicate that the four-party governing
coalition has lost a total of 13 seats in Finland's uni-
cameral legislature in the two-day balloting that ended
yesterday. Those parties--the Social Democrats, Centrists,
Liberals, and the Communist-front Finnish Democratic
Peoples' League--still have a safe majority, however,
should they decide to remain in coalition. The Commu-
nists appear to have dropped from second to fourth place
in terms of the number of seats held, while the opposi-
tion Conservative Party advanced from fourth to second
place. It now has 45 seats to the 52 held by the leading
Social Democrats, who nonetheless must be concerned over
the worst performance by Finnish parties of the left
since World War II. 25X1
China-Japan
Beijing and Tokyo yesterday agreed to extend to
1990 their eight-year (1978-85) trade agreement signed
early last year. The new accord reportedly will be
signed in Tokyo on 29 March. It apparently will call
for bilateral trade of $40 billion to $60 billion over
the 13-year period. 25X1
Laos-Kampuchea
Press reports indicate a Lao party-government dele-
gation led by head of state Prince Souphanouvong left
Vientiane today for Phnom Penh and talks with the Viet-
namese-supported Kampucheans. They in turn have today
issued a statement denouncing "Chinese subversion in
Laos" (see article in Briefs and Comments) and reaffirming
the need for "militant solidarity" among Laos, Kampuchea,
and Vietnam.
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