NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 16, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: March 14, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
oia pr Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0312001
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
14 March 1979
DIA and DOS review(s)
completed.
Top Secret
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120p -0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
25X1
25X1
Lebanon: More Threats to the Cease-Fire.
25X1
Morocco - Western Sahara: Military
Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
25X1
Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 15
The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as the
final section of the Daily, will often contain materials
that update the Situation Reports and Briefs and Comments.
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
LEBANON: More Threats to the Cease-Fire
Saudi Arabia apparently intends to begin withdraw-
ing from the Arab Deterrent Force in Beirut starting to-
day. Christian militia leaders reportedly plan to attack
Syrian troops in northern Lebanon soon, and the security
situation in southern Lebanon has deteriorated recently.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Butrus on Monday told Am-
bassador Dean that the Saudi contingent had received or-
ders to begin withdrawing. The Saudis last week had
seemed responsive to Lebanese and US requests to delay
their departure but, concerned over the Yemeni situation,
apparently decided to proceed immediately.
25X1
25X1
There are no indications that Lebanon has made prog-
ress in getting Syria to allow the Lebanese Army to re-
place the Saudis at key flashpoints between Syrian troops
and Christian militia units. An attempt by either the 25X1
Syrians or the militias to occupy the positions could
cause major fighting, as could Christian attacks on Syrian
units in the mountains north of Beirut.
told the US defense attache the Christians are 1an-
ning such attacks this week. 25X1
In the south, Palestinian forces yesterday fired 25X1
artillery and rockets at Christian militia sites and at
Israeli villages. The attacks started an artillery duel
between the fedayeen and Christians lasting for several
hours- shelled suspected guerrilla
camps
Militia leader Major Haddad has fired on Palestin-
ian-held villages daily for over a week, and last Thurs-
day he closed to UN peacekeeping forces all but one road 25X1
in the Christian-controlled enclaves. Haddad is likely
to continue his harassment now that Lebanon has shown its
determination to stick to its decision to sto a in the
former regular army troops under his command.
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
MOROCCO - WESTERN SAHARA: Military Developments
.King Hassan replaced the commander of Moroccan
forces in Western Sahara on Monday, according to press
reports from Rabat. In making the announcement, Hassan
hinted at a more aggressive policy toward the Polisario
guerrillas, which could mean he is giving greater con-
sideration to strikes against Polisario camps in Algeria.
On the other hand, the change of field commanders and a
royal message to Parliament Zast week reiterating Mo-
rocco's right of hot pursuit may be designed to mollify
domestic critics.
It is unlikely that the new commander, Colonel
Abrouk, will have any greater success fighting the in-
surgents than his predecessor, Colonel Bennani. The
Moroccan forces are in a worse military position now
than when Bennani assumed command. They are relying on
static defense of fixed positions and have virtually
25X1
25X1
conceded the countryside to the insurgents. As a result,
the option of a strike at Polisario camps in Algeria, 25X1
destroying the source of the problem rather than deal in
with the symptoms, may become attractive.
Hassan, however, needs a political settlement. The
war is contributing to the general domestic malaise, and
he is unlikely to close the door to negotiations. He
presumably realizes that cross-border retaliation would
sour already uncertain prospects for negotiations on a
political settlement with Algeria and the Polisario
Front. F77 I
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
Next 4 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
25X1
(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from the
production offices of NFAC.)
25X1
Grenada
Guyana's Prime Minister Burnham told the US Embassy
in Georgetown last night that Foreign Ministers of the
Caribbean Common Market states will meet today in Bridge-
urn am i no appear downcast in asserting that the
New Jewel Movement now controls Grenada; he stressed to
the Embassy his hope that there be no outside interfer-
ence on the island pending the review of the situation
town, Barbados, to discuss the situation on Grenada
Jamaica apparently will attend.
by the neighboring states.
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
Middle East
According to late press reports, Red cross officials
have announced the exchange at Geneva airport today of
an Israeli soldier for approximately 80 Palestinians.
The exchange is described as the first between Israel and
the Palestinians. The Israeli soldier--seized in south
Lebanon last April--was flown in from Damascus, and the
Palestinians reportedly arrived on an Israeli civil air-
craft.
Kampuchea
The US Embassy in Beijing reports that Prince
Sihanouk early this month told French Ambassador to China
Arnaud that he would not work with a new Pol Pot regime
and disagrees with China's view that the Pol Pot forces
are essential to a solution of the Kampuchean problem.
Sihanouk said he prefers a neutral Kampuchea--one
friendly to Beijing while maintaining good relations
with Vietnam and the USSR--and no early withdrawal of
Vietnamese forces, since that allegedly would lead to a
comeback by Pol Pot. The Embassy comments that Sihanouk
remains very much his own man; he evidently is searching
for a united front stategy that will not give a leading
role to Pol Pot's supporters and will not be a Chinese
creation.
25X1
Thailand-USSR
The US Embassy in Bangkok reported yesterday that a
considerable body of influential Thai opinion thinks Prime
Minister Kriangsak should postpone his visit to the USSR,
which is scheduled to commence a week from today. Several
ranking members of the government have told US Ambassador
Abramowitz that Thailand will gain nothing from a visit
to the state which has underwritten Hanoi's adventurism.
The Embassy notes, however, that Kriangsak continues to
say, publicly and privately, that he is going; he appar-
ently feels he has committed himself and must go in order
to preserve a posture of balance in Thailand's relations
with the great powers. 25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
25X1
On the eve of tomorrow's inauguration of President-
elect Figueiredo, striking auto workers have closed down
several plants in Sao Paulo, and students in Rio de
Janeiro and Sao Paulo are said to be planning protest
demonstrations. The workers are demanding pay hikes 34
percent above what the government is willing to grant;
the students presumably seek to draw attention to the 25X1
military's continued political dominance. None of the
actual or planned activity has anti-US overtones, and no
protests are planned for Brasilia.
COMMENT: Neither situation is likely to become
violent. The government has taken a conciliatory ap-
proach to similar strikes in recent months and is ZikeZy 25X1
to do so again. In the case of the students, the regime
will probably also take a "hands-off" approach inter-
vening only in the event of serious disorder.
A special session of Parliament on France's burgeon-
ing unemployment problems opens today. President Giscard
formally called the session Monday in response to the
requisite number of deputies seeking debate on the govern-
ment's economic program. According to the US Embassy
in Paris, he is playing "hardball" with Gaullist leader
Chirac--a likely rival in the presidential election in
1981. In his statement, Giscard claimed that Gaullist
leaders had provoked the special session without consult-
ing the party's elected representatives and were being
inconsistent with President de Gaulle's action in similar
circumstances in 1960. Giscard, the Embassy notes, thus
has obliquely accused Chirac of running his party like a
dictator and of betraying the Gaullist concept of presi-
dentialism.
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0
 Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
Saudi Arabia - Turkey
The West German Foreign office has informed the US
Embassy in Bonn that Saudi Arabia intends to provide Tur-
key with $250 million in credits to be divided between
project assistance and funds for the purchase of spare
parts and raw materials. The Embassy was unable to ascer-
tain a further breakdown of these credits or the time
frame for disbursement; the assistance is to be provided
on a strictly bilateral basis and will not be coordinated
with any Western aid initiative under OECD auspices. The
West German Embassy in Jidda reports that contrary to
press reports in Ankara, the Saudis and Libyans are not
contemplatin the formation of a joint consortium to aid
Turkey.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
 25X1
Top Secret
d For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031200120002-0
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31200120002-0