NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031100180002-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 6, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: February 22, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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entra
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
State Dept. review completed
Ton Secret
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National Intelligence Daily (Cable)
Contents
Situation Reports
Iran 5
Persian Gulf: Pro-Khomeini Sentiment 7
Italy: Andreotti Gives Up 8
Mauritania: RaezaZ Violence 9
St. Lucia: Neva Caribbean Micro-State 10
Turkey: Opposition to Martial Law Extension 11
Zaire: Security Situation 11
Briefs and Comments
Tanzania-Uganda: Military Situation .
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A senior official of the Iranian Government com-
plained yesterday that Ayatollah Khomeini 's injunction
to workers to return to work was not being followed in
some industries. In the first public admission of this
problem, Viee Premier Entezam blamed leftists for keep-
ing the workers aut.
We have no information on how many workers have re-
fused to return to work or what sectors of the economy
are being hardest hit. Several leftist groups are re-
cruiting workers.
//The Marxist Chariks have apparently been vigor-
ously recruiting among the workers for several months.
Tn the crucial oil sector, Iranian authorities believe at
least four leftist groups are active--the Chariks, the
pro-Soviet Tudeh Party dissident Tudeh elements, and a
Trotskyite faction.//
The Chariks backed away yesterday from a potential
confrontation with the regime by canceling their plan to
hold a mass march on Khomeini's headquarters today;
Khomeini had denounced the plan. Instead, the lan to
hold a rally at Tehran University tomorrow.
The Chariks' decision to back down is consistent
with their apparent strategy of avoiding a direct con-
frontation with the Khomeini government while harassing
it by attacking "sof t" targets like foreign embassies.
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BRIEr'S AND COMMENTS
TANZANIA-UGANDA: Military Situation
//Tanzanian forces closed in on tYce Ugandan provincial
capital of Masaka esterda meetin onZ scattered re-
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Kampala remains quiet, but there are signs that
Amin's position could be imperiled if the situation
worsens. Dissension
among frontline troops could easily
spread to the Capita
l and undermine Amin's tenuous hold
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on key units.
Amin is seeking
weekend, he agreed t
ways to end the fighting.. Last
o a Libyan truce proposal and an-
nounced plans to par
ticipate in an OAU mediation effort
this week in Nairobi
. Tanzania, however, rejected the
Libyan proposal and
is likely to maintain a hardline
stance in the OAU di
scussions in the absence of African
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condemnation of Amin.
t
The West German
he three US mission
Ambassador in Kampala reports that
aries in the Mbarara and Masaka
a
reas should be able
to flee to Kam ala or the West-ern
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art of the country.
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PERSIAN GULF: Pro-Khomeini Sentiment
Shia communities of the small Persian Gulf states
are staging pro-Khomeini demonstrations that are sure to
add to the worries o the conservative rulers of these.
countries.
//Such demonstrations have so far occurred at the 25X
Iranian Embassies in Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab
Emirates,
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In a X1-
# e coon ries, a ias are econ mi olitically
discriminated against by the Sunni-controlled governments.
Many Gulf Shia probabl view the Iranian revolution as a
victor for all Shia.
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App
I'PALY: Andreotti Gives Up
Former Prime Minister Andreotti abandoned his effort
to form a new government yesterday. President Pertini
has announced his intention to appoint Republican Party
leader Ugo La MaZfa as the new prime minister - deli nate
in a Zast-ditch effort to avoid an early election.
Andreotti's prospects were badly hurt last week
when the Communist Party rejected his proposals. His
plan apparently was to grant half the cabinet posts to
the Christian Democrats and the other half to "techni-
cians" nominated by the Communists and the other arties
that supported the previous government.
Communist party chief Berlinguer suggested, in turn,
that Andreotti either grant the Communists cabinet posts
or permit a figure from another party to form a govern-
ment. According to Berlinguer, such a government could
be backed by both Andreotti's Christian Democrats and
the Communists, or it could exclude the Christian Demo-
crats.
urged Andreotti to report his failure to Pertini.
Andreotti's proposals, and even the Christian Democrats
Berlinguer suggested these alternatives in an effort
to shift the blame for a new election to the Christian
Democrats and to induce the Socialists--whose support
is pivotal--to rule out any formula that would exclude
the Communists; the Socialists yesterday flatly rejected
Pertini--a Socialist--reacted quickly because he is
strongly opposed to an early election, which he believes
would damage his own party. His choice of a Republican
would be unprecedented in post-war Italy; all prime min-
e inters - desi nate Burin this eriod have been Christian
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Although La Malfa could conceivably fashion a new
government, his task is likely to be complicated by op-
position from the Christian Democrats, who could block
a workable majority. In this case, a La Malfa government
would act merely as a caretaker to re are the country
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MAURITANIA: Racial Violence
Mauritania's fragile political fabric, already 25X1
strained by its unpopular war for control of a portion
of Western Sahara and by a coup Zast July, is bein
further weakened by an upsurge of racial tensions.
~..
The 1.5 million population is split into two sharply
antagonistic societies--nomadic Moors (Arab-Berbers) and
sedentary blacks concentrated in the Senegal River Valley.
Moors control the government, the economy, and the top
ranks of the security services. Blacks, who comprise
most of the enlisted ranks and who have borne a dispro-
portionate share of casualties in fighting against
Polisario forces in Western Sahara, have in recent months
increasin 1 demanded economic and political equality.
Moorish officials and citizens seem opposed to con-
cessions and have been angered by the blacks' demands.
The general mood is now volatile; early this month a
minor incident in the Nouakchott market brought large
crowds into the s et and forced closing of the market.
Regime leaders have blamed the unrest on "foreign
and domestic saboteurs" and seem inclined to rely on
repression in dealing with the problem. Tension and
violence are therefore likely to intensif and olitical
stability is likely to erode further.
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p roprop
ST. LUCIA: New Caribbean micro-State
//The British Associated State of St. Lucia--with a
population of 119,000--gains full independence today,
the latest raithdrawaZ from the British West Indies As-
sociated States. Grenada achieved independence in 1974
and Dominica in 1978. The Associated States noun consist
of An-tigua, St. Kitts-Anguilla-Nevis, and St. Vincent.
They have interr~aZ autonomy, but de erase and oreign af-
fairs are controlled by Britain.//
//Most St. Lucians are of African descent and speak
either English or a French patois. Primarily an agrarian
state--over half_ the labor force engages in agriculture--
St. Lucia depends on the export of bananas and on tour-
ism. Unemployment is high, affecting roughly a third
of the workforce.- The island is characterized by for-
ested, volcanic cones rising steeply along the coast and
throughout the interior. Principal towns--such as
Castries, the capital--are located in coastal bays, pro-
tected from the area's frequent hurricanes. A sheltered,
deep-water harbor provides access to the capital and its
45,000 inhabitants. The island has two commercial air-
ports capable of jet, traffic.//
//Premier John Compton, a political moderate and
able administrator., has long been widely respected
throughout the eastern Caribbean. He will face tough
domestic opposition, however, in an election expected
later this year. George Odlum, a Cuban-oriented radical
who heads the larger faction of the main opposition
party, has increasing influence among the country s dis-
affected youth. Although associated with political vio-
lence in the past, Odlum-has now apparently decided to
tr to unseat Compton through conventional means.//
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TURKEY: Opposition to Martial Law Extension
The major Turkish opposition party continued its as-
saults on Prime Minister Ecevit on Tuesday by announcing
that it will vote against government legislation to ex-
tend martial law. Suleyman Demirel's Justice Party sup-
ported the original imposition of martial law last Decem-
ber but has consistently attacked the government for not
giving the military wider authority to stem the rising
political violence. By highlighting this concern to
justify its decision, the Justice Party clearly aims to
ingratiate itself with military leaders reportedly chaf-
ing under current government restrictions. Demirel may
hope to test the discipline of Ecevit's two-seat majority
on the eve of the crucial bud et vote--due before 1 March.
ZAIRE: Security Situation
Zaire's Kivu Province and Kinshasa remain tense
despite the failure of mercenaries to lead anti-Mobutu
uprisings last weekend as they had intended. Twelve
mercenaries who recently arrived in Rwanda remain in a
hotel on the Rwanda-Zaire frontier 25X1_
The Rwan ans, wit Be gran
is ance, repor e y are arranging to expel them to
Europe within a few days. We have no additional in- -_
formation on the other mercenaries who reportedly ar-
rived in Rwanda last week as part of the anti-Mobutu
plot. The Zairian Army and the advance contingent of
60 Belgian commandos at Kitona in western Zaire remain
on alert. Mobutu has often followed periods of height-
eried tension with sweeping arrests of persons whose
loyalty he suspects, and may do so again.
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