NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031100060002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: February 7, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director. of P ecreC
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gAr
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily (Cable) 25X1
Situation Reports
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Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Morocco: Internal P
ressures
. . .
. . . . . . . 6
Pakistan: Bhutto Ve
rdict .
. . .
. . . . . . . 7
Poland: Consumer Fr
ustratio
ns . .
. . . . . . . 8
Uganda: Situation i
n Capita
l . .
. . . . . . . 9
Ecuador: Election P
ostponem
ent .
. . . . . . . 9
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Iranian radio yesterday carried a strong statement
from the office of the armed forces chief of staff warn-
ing that anyone who tried to weaken military morale or
harass military personnel would be prosecuted. The
warning was the latest in a series of efforts by the
military leadershi to shore up the armed forces' co-
hesion.
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The military remains Bakhtiar's most significant
base of support. As its morale weakens, the balance of
power shifts toward the Islamic movement, steadil weaken-
ing Bakhtiar's chances for holding on to power.
The naming of Bazargan's ministers--who could pro-
voke an incident if they attempt to take possession of
ministerial offices--may be delayed for several days.
Nationwide demonstrations in support of Bazargan and a
leftist march in Tehran are scheduled for tomorrow.
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MOROCCO: Internal Pressures
Open criticism of King Hassan's restraint in his
response to the recent attack by guerrillas of the AZ-
gerian-backed Polisario Front on the Moroccan town of
Tan-Tan is the latest sign that the King in the months
ahead may face increasingly outspoken questioning of
his autocratic leadership. Some Moroccans had already
been grumbling about the continuing participation of their
troops in the African force that is policing Zaire's Shaba
Region and about the hos italic the King has extended to
the Shah of Iran.
Moroccan Foreign Minister Boucetta's restrained com-
plaint about the incident in an open letter to the Al-
gerian Government last week reflects the King's desire
to avoid foreclosing any chances for a negotiated set-
tlement of the Western Sahara dispute with Algeria's
new leaders. The King's stance, however, has clearly
disturbed many segments of Moroccan society, includin
the military and the two major political parties.
The King is resisting pressure from all quarters to
retaliate against Polisario bases in the Tindouf area of
southern Algeria. He argues that such a response would
cause the new Algerian leader, Colonel Bendjedid, to
stiffen his support for the guerrillas. The King, how-
ever, will not be able to ignore pressure from the mili-
tary for punitive action against Algeria if the guerrillas
stage further attacks that embarrass Morocco. The action
against Tan-Tan was the first time a sizable Moroccan
population center had been hit by the guerrillas.
The King's main opponents--the increasingly out-
spoken Socialist Union of Popular Forces in alliance
with its labor affiliate and dissident students--are
likely to exploit Hassan's Western Sahara policy as well
as the current labor unrest in attempting to widen sup-
port for their efforts to impose curbs on the King's ab-
solute powers. A Moroccan official, commenting on a
nationwide teachers' strike that began on Monday, ob-
served that present conditions are similar to those in
1965 when student rioters su orted by labor, were sup-
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Pakistan is calm following the Supreme Court deci-
sion yesterday to uphold the death sentence against former
Prime Minister Bhutto. The sentence may yet be commuted
by President Zia and, in anu event would not be carried
out for at Least a week.
In anticipation of the announcement, the government
arrested several hundred Bhutto supporters. Bhutto's
wife and daughter are under house arrest and universities
remain closed. Police in major cities--as well as some
Army units--are on alert. These stepped-up security
measures and the public's general uncertainty about what
will come next have limited public reactions to small
demonstrations.
The court informed Bhutto that he had "seven clear
days" before the sentence could be carried out. Bhutto's
lawyer is expected to file a petition for a review of
the ruling. Such a petition, designed to correct fac-
tual errors in the judgment, could further delay the
execution. The lawyer may also send an appeal for clem-
ency to Zia in the next few days despite Bhutto's public
rejection of that move. F_ I
Zia is under domestic and international pressure to
commute the sentence. The Supreme Court verdict was not
unanimous, raising further doubts among the people about
Bhutto's guilt. Several friendly nations, fearing insta-
bility in Pakistan, have interceded on Bhutto's behalf.
By granting clemency, however, Zia could face the wrath
of the military and his political backers who fear that
a vindictive Bhutto could eventually reemerge as a major
political force.
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Approv
The Polish regime's continuing inability to come to
grips with its economic problems, as shown by the govern-
ment's own newly released data, will keep popular ten-
sions high. The longer these problems persist, the more
likely that a spark will ignite built-up consumer frus-
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The cost-of-living index rose 8.5 percent last
year--nearly double the 1977 rate and the steepest rise
in more than two decades. According to the government,
real per capita income rose only 0.4 percent and there
was a "slump for some groups of employees." Official
indexes do not fully reflect price increases, and we be-
lieve real per capita income actually fell.
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Consumer tensions, at a high level for several years
because of chronic shortages of quality goods, especially
meat, are now being aggravated by higher prices. Another
irritant is the growing inequality between the lot of the
average Pole, whose living standard has stagnated, and
that of certain privileged groups, such as miners, police,
security forces, party workers, and those fortunate
enough to receive hard-currency remittances from the
Mounting payments problems, growing energy shortages,
and lagging agricultural output prevent the regime from
easing the economic burden on the consumer. The regime
hopes to muddle through until these constraints abate
and current policies directing more resources toward
agriculture, housin and light industry begin to pay
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UGANDA: Situation in Capital
The situation in Kampala has improved considerably
with the restoration of electric power to some areas of
the city and the removal of roadblocks. The government
appears to have weathered its most recent crisis and the
security situation has stabilized, but assassination at-
tempts against President Amin or other violent acts are
still possible. F_ I 25X1
ECUADOR: Election Postponement
Ecuador has agreed to postpone the presidential
runoff and parliamentary elections from 8 to 29 April
and has amended the electoral law to enable government
employees, university professors, and public school
teachers to be candidates for the legislature. Legal
prohibition of these groups--the most politically sophis-
ticated in Ecuador--had seriously hampered efforts by
some political parties to fill their electoral slates
with qualified candidates. The three-week postponement,
which was requested by four of the 10 legalized parties,
will not affect the 10 August inau ura on date for the
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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