NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010092-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 92
• Publication Date: November 27, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

Appr~ed&QfRelease 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A03090001~60p Cret
Central
mil _....
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
State Dept. review completed Top Secret
CG NIDC 78-0275C
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO309000 WZ" '
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AQ309p00'~0092-7
oa ecre
CONTENTS
IRAN: Violence and General Strike . . . . . . . . . 1
ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel . . . . . . . . . . 2
ZAIRE: Current Status of Army . . . . . . . . . . . 4
BRIEF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
New Zealand
FEATURE ARTICLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
CHINA: Situation Report
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010092-7
 Approved For Release 2007/03/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AQ,309000'~0092-7
Lou oecre
//The Shah's religious opponents yester-
day again demonstrated their power by effectively im-
plementing a general strike in Iran. The strike was ac-
companied by intensified violence in the provinces. Ef-
forts at starting a dialogue between the Shah and some
members of the opposition National Front continue at a
glacial pace.//
I The religious leaders called for a day of
mourning 4o protest the shooting of several demonstra-
tors by soldiers who apparently entered an important
religious shrine in Mashhad a week ago. Most shops were
closed in Tehran yesterday, and scattered power outages
contributed to an atmosphere of paralysis.
The US Consul in Esfahan reports that demon-
strators set ablaze several buildings and bombed an
apartment house in which several American families live.
Terrorists also fire-bombed four more American owned
vehicles. No US citizens suffered injuries in any of the
incidents. According to press reports, large demonstra-
tions occurred in several other cities.
//Former Prime Ministers Sharif-Emami
an i- .ini and others who are working to find a com-
promise solution have made almost no progress. On Friday
members of the National Front only repeated their famil-
iar proposals that are unacceptable to the Shah. The Na-
tional Front continues to call for a regency council
that would replace the Shah and pass authority for the
formation of a national coalition government to a vaguely
defined group that would hold elections.//
L The moderates clearly are concerned about the
dangers o grave violence during the Moharram mourning
period that begins Saturday, but neither they nor the
Shah seem to know how to solve the impasse.
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010092-7
 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
Top Secret
ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel
I IThe impasse in diplomatic negotiations between
Argen zna and Chile sustains our concern that Argentina
will resort to military action in defense of its terri-
torial claims in the Beagle Channel.
In the latest procedural move, Argentina has
agreed in principle to a proposal from Chile that the
two countries' foreign ministers meet to select a medi-
ator. Argentina insists, however, on discussing substan-
tive issues at that meeting, a condition Chile so far
has been unwilling to accept.
Last week Argentine President Videla publicly
sought to portray his country as the conciliatory party
in the dispute but gave clear warning that his government
will defend any threatened Argentine interests. At the
same time, the Argentine media and various Argentine of-
ficials are expressing continuing frustration over Chile's
inflexibility.
ved For Release 2007/03/08 CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010092-7
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
Top Secret
ZAIRE: Current Status of Army
//Zaire's Army, six months after its dismal
er ormance during the invasion of Shaba Region by insur-
4rents of the Congolese National Liberation Front, still
:,uffers from inefficiency, corruption, and indiscipline
?f.espite ambitious Zairian and European plans to create
c capable security force.//
//The Moroccan commander of the Inter-
orce in Shaba, Colonel Loubaris, recently told
US officials that he is becoming more pessimistic about
the ability of the Zairian Army to provide security for
the region during the foreseeable future. He believes
Shaba will face another period of anarchy after his Mo-
roccan and West African soldiers leave, probably by next
_summer . //
//In a recent experiment to test
Zairian orces, Moroccan units temporarily withdrew from
several key towns they normally occupy, leaving them
under Zairian Army control. Criminal acts and Army ha-
rassment of civilians quickly increased, and Zairian
commanders urged the Moroccans to return to restore
order.//
//The French and Belgian training of
new Zairian airborne and infantry brigades is behind
schedule; recruits and equipment have been scarce. Zair-
ian officers have also complained that French military
advisers abuse their authority, take training equipment
for their personal use, and do not allow Zairian officers
to assume important command positions. For their part,
the French openly acknowledge their low opinion of the
Zairian officer corps.//
//Although their prospects of reversing the
situation do not appear good, Zaire and its allies ap-
parently still have time to do so. Zairian rebels con-
tinue to occupy camps in Angola and Zambia and occasion-
ally infiltrate a few men into Shaba, but they apparently
have no immediate plans for a new major incursion.I
Top Secret
For Release 2007/03/08 4 CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
I
 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
BRIEF
I Prime Minister Muldoon apparently won
New Zealand's general election on Satur-
day but with a reduced majority that appears to reflect
voter dissatisfaction with his management of the econ-
omy.//
//Preliminary election returns indicate
Muldoon's National Party won 49 seats in the parliament.
The Labor Party apparently will increase its seats by 10
and will have 42 members in parliament while the Social
Credit Party will retain its one seat. The National Par-
ty's share of the popular vote dropped 7 percent from
its previous showing, and the party was actually outpolled
by the Labor Party. The New Zealand economy was troubled
throughout Muldoon's first term by high inflation, trade
deficits, and unemployment.//
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030900q
 Cou Speroved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
CHINA: Situation Report
II WaZZposter attacks in Peking on Mao Tse-tung
an some current political leaders became increasingly
strident yesterday. The Chinese, however, have maintained
official silence on the nature and results of the high-
level meeting that the party leadership apparently held
last week to discuss issues reflected in the posters.
','.'eng Hsiao-ping, the only top leader to have made a pub-
lic appearance in several days, reportedly told a visit-
ing Japanese delegation yesterday that the Politburo de-
cisions made in April 1976--stripping him of all posts
and elevating Hua Kuo-feng to the post of First Vice-
Chairman of the Central Committee--were "wrong" and
"must be corrected." Although Teng exonerated Hua from
responsibility for the decisions, some observers in Hong
among speculate that Hua will cede the Premiership to
Teng--a move that would consolidate Teng's expanded au-
thority. Wang Tung-hsing, fifth-ranking member of the
Politburo Standing Committee, appears to be in serious
trouble, and posters have demanded his expulsion from
the Politburo. An announcement from the party leadership
is expected today.
I iTeng, in his interview with the Japanese dele-
qation, gave his approval to the current rash of posters,
but characterized some of the criticism of Mao as "un-
'air." He said that, at the time of the "Tienanmen Inci-
dent" of April 1976, Mao's health was so poor that he
was "unable to make judgments." Chairman Hua, at that
time, was not permitted to see Mao, according to Teng,
and so was not a part of the decisionmaking process.
Teng said that the "Gang of Four" was responsible for
the decisions taken at that time, and the time is now
"ripe" to correct those decisions.
I ITeng's version of events leaves many questions
unanswere , such as the state of Mao's health nearly two
months later, when, according to the official report, he
gold Hua "with you in charge, I'm at ease." Hua used
this statement to consolidate his authority after Mao's
death. Teng also skipped over the fact that the April
1976 decisions were made "unanimously," and that other
i'op secret Release 2007/03/08 :6 CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010G9 - ecret
0
members of the Politburo would presumably have to ac-
count for their actions if a reassessment of the deci-
sions were to be made. The Party will probably soon make
an official statement on the issue, but the announcement
is unlikely to end the controversy over the succession.
Wang Tung-hsing has now become.a direct target
of the poster writers. At least two prominently displayed
posters have criticized him for opposing Teng and de-
manded his expulsion from the Politburo. Wang, a former
bodyguard of Mao, is believed to have consistently op-
posed Teng and has never been a popular figure in China.
Teng would clearly like to diminish further Wang's au-
thority and perhaps even to eliminate him as a political
force.
I According to several reports, one outcome of
tne t situation may be that Hua will cede the post
of Premier to Teng, as he was expected to do last March
at the National People's Congress. While such an action
would consolidate Teng's authority as the head of the
governmental decisionmaking process, it would tend to
institutionalize tension between Teng and Hua--who pre-
sumably would retain his party chairmanship--and might
lead to a future "succession crisis" when the 74-year-
old Teng's health begins to fail.
If Teng was unable to have his way at the
party meeting, the implications for Chinese policies may
be great. Chinese officials in Peking and the provinces
could conclude that Teng's sweeping modernization program
lacks full support at the top and that they need not im-
plement it with the speed that Teng has ordered. China's
aggressive pursuit of foreign cooperation in the modern-
ization effort might also be slowed if Teng cannot demon-
strate his authority by neutralizing presumed critics at
the highest levels.
I I The recent poster activity raises deep issues
about the legitimacy of the regime. Some posters have
bitterly denounced the "feudal fascist dictatorship"
that existed under Mao and lamented that it is no longer
possible to tell what constitutes "genuine" Marxism.
Others have pointed to the US, and even to Taiwan, as
models for a modern economy.
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A03090001
092-7
 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010092-7
Ton Secret
D
While the ideas contained in these posters do
not yet go as far as those of the famous "Hundred Flowers"
campaign of 1956, which the party eventually had to sup-
press, they do indicate a considerable amount of dissent
and dissatisfaction with the overall performance of the
regime. Teng appears thus far to be using that dissent
to his own advantage. Other party leaders, however, may
have reason to fear any real "mass participation" in
politics and may move to suppress it.
Top Secr t ed For Release 2007/03/d8 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010092-7
 Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010092-7