NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010072-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 20, 2006
• Sequence Number: 72
• Publication Date: November 14, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Tuesday 14 November 1978 CG NIDC 78/265
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelli ence Dail Cable for Tuesday, 14 November 1978.
T e NID Ca e is or t o purpose o in orming
senior o icials.
IRAN: Further Violence Expected
LEBANON: Military Developments
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ROMANIA: Lowered Growth Sights
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IRAN: Further Violence Expected
The expected confrontation yesterday between the Iran-
ian military government and the opposition over the government's
effort, to break the oil strike and the arrest of two leaders of
the opposition National Front did not materialize. The US Em-
bassy believes, however, that students and other protestors will
continue to test military authority in Tehran and that further
violence can be expected in the next few days.
The use of military personnel in oil industry jobs and
t e re urn to work of about half of the oil sector's blue col-
lar employees and most management personnel have enabled Iran to
raise oil production over the past several days. Production
edged up to 2.6 million barrels per day yesterday, and oil in-
dustry sources expect it to reach 3 million barrels per day to-
day. If this level is attained, production and exports--about
2.5 million barrels per day--will have returned to almost half
their pre-strike level.
Striking workers in other sectors have not responded
uni orm y to the government's back-to-work. demands. Employees
of the national airline went back to work, and service was re-
stored to near normal. Telecommunications workers who had re-
turned to their jobs were out again yesterday, and Health Minis-
try employees and the customs officials necessary to clear Iran-
ian imports were among those who remained off the job. With
supplies of gasoline improved, public and private traffic was
reported heavy in Tehran following last week's lull.
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LEBANON: Military Developments
//Lebanon's right-wing Phalange Party re-
porte ,y has egun to implement plans to expand its militia and
to emphasize training on artillery and antitank weapons and in
mountain warfare. The new steps strongly suggest that the Chris-
tians expect the Syrians to mount attacks into the mountainous
Christian heartland in any future fighting. There were exchanges
of maehinegun, rocket, and mortar fire in Beirut Zast weekend,
but the city was generally calm yesterday. The Maronites and
the Palestinians are engaging in an extensive search for solu-
tions to their ma~7or differences.//
Christian militias used artillery systematically for
t e first time in the fighting around Beirut early last month.
While they apparently had some effect, the fact that they were
positioned north of Beirut gave the Syrians a pretext for shell-
ing villages in the Maronite heartland, most of which had not
been drawn into the fighting since the civil war.
Should another round of clashes. erupt, the Syrians
may welt step up efforts to carry the fighting further into the
Maronite heartland. The militias probably believe the use of
artillery and antitank weapons is necessary to raise the cost
of any new fighting to the Syrians.
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Phalange militia chief Bashir Jumayyil, besides pre-
paring for possible renewed fighting with the Syrians, is also
concerned that the Lebanese Army will be used against the Maro-
nite militias. Bashir probably ordered recent attacks aimed both
at Army units and at government officials concerned with defense
matters to demonstrate his disapproval of any attempt to use the
Army to crack down on the militias.
Bashir's brother, Amin, has criticize ese ac ics an
urge party chief Pierre Jumayyil to rein in Bashir. Pierre has
supported the government's plan to rebuild the Army and to ex-
pand its security role, but he has also been reluctant to dis-
avow Bashir's-militant policies.
Amin and Fatah official Salah Khalaf met openly last
month, and representatives of the two groups have held several
private talks over the past-few weeks.
Pierre Jumayyil and National Liberal Party chief
Camille S amun met separately on Friday with two Palestinian
representatives. Shaman said after the meeting that he has no
-objection to a. Palestinian presence in Lebanon "until their is-
sue is settled." A Fatah official said the Palestine Liberation
Organization had not authorized the meeting, but he was probably
trying to keep all options open in case the dialogue falls
through; the Palestinians .are not likely to have attended the
meeting without Fatah's approval
The meetings have so far produced no substantive agree-
he have eased the hostility between the two groups.
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FRANCE-NATO: Disarmament Session
//An unpublicized session of the North Atlantic
Council Zast Thursday produced no consensus on the French pro--
posaZ-for a European disarmament conference, the centerpiece of
the discrmament initiative announced by President- Giscard in
January. The Council is slated to reconsider the proposal early
next year. The French emphasized their desire to hold a eonfer-
enee preparatory meeting sometime in 1979.// .
//While the Allies welcomed Paris' increased in-
.
terest in arms control negotiations, a number of them joined'
the US in expressing misgivings over the proposed conference,
particularly its relationship to the East-West force reduction
talks in Vienna and to the periodic reviews of compliance with
the Helsinki agreement. The West Germans provided qualified but
important support for the French proposal, saying the conference
scheme and-the Vienna negotiations were not incompatible.//
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//The French have yet to detail their ideas on the
treatment of nuclear weapons at the proposed conference. French
delegate Tine was unclear on that point last Thursday. He as-
serted that .nuclear weapons must be excluded from the confer-
ence agenda, but he maintained in other remarks that systems
capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear warheads
would be part of the ne out in
a conference.
ROMANIA: Lowered Growth Sights
Romanian President Ceausescu has Zor~ered economic
growth targets for 1979 because of resource shortages and bal-
ance of payments constraints. An economic plan announced this
month implies a 5-percent growth of GNP for next zgear, con-
trasted with an average of about 6.1 percent planned and
achieved during 1971-75 and originaZZzg planned through 1980.
The new plan for increases in consumer income is also beZom re-
cent nZans and achievements. Slower income growth will aggravate
consumer malaise and could have adverse political repercussions.
The lowering of 1979 growth sights probably reflects
Ceausescu's recognition of hard-currency and resource con-
straints. Energy, labor, and hard-currency shortages and a
mediocre harvest sharply cut economic growth last year. Similar
problems this year will again keep agricultural and industrial
production and investment well below targets. Output of coal,
steel, cement, and machinery is particularly slow, with reduced
exports.
Ceausescu had hoped to keep growth up by boosting
labor productivity with increased worker and management incen-
tives. His promises to boost real wages significantly and to
cut working hours have collided with a higher priority program
of last March that ties wages more closely to production plans.
Strict adherence to this program would probably reduce wages
or require increased overtime work.
Moreover, promises of greater decision-making powers
for managers run counter to Ceausescu's push for greater cen-
tralized planning. Meanwhile, worker incentives to earn more
are further undercut by continued consumer shorta es
larly of housing and meat supplies.
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