NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010070-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2005
• Sequence Number: 70
• Publication Date: November 13, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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?CIA-RDP79T00975A0309000100//~~70-1
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Qisclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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Top Secret 25X1
ACTION
APPROVAL
COMMENT
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.~.
(Security Classification)
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Monday 13 November 1978 CG NIDC 78/264
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I telli ence Dail Cable far Monda , 13 November 1978
The NTD Cable is for t e purpose o in orming
senior o icials.
IRAN: Breaking the Opposition
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BRAZIL: Short-Term Prospects
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PORTUGAL: Politi
cal Negotiations
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UNITED KINGDOM:
Labor's Chances
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USSR: Salyut-6 Wrap-up
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BRIEF:
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Romania-Yugoslavia
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IRAN: Breaking the Opposition
//The arrest Saturdar~ of the leader of the Iranian
oppose zon ationaZ Front marks the first step in an effort
b~ the Shah to break the opposition's resolve and to encourage
moderate opposition politicians to Mork out a poZit2eaZ compro-
mise that would offer some hope of restoring stabiZit~.//
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//The Shah wants to check the movement into increas- 25X1
ing y ar positions by his moderate opponents, some of whom are
now calling for his abdication.
//The Shah had not tried to curb opposition politi-
cians earlier in the hope they might be persuaded to join a co-
alition government. He probably concluded that National Front
leader Sanjabi had to be silenced because he had become the tool
of exiled extremist religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini.
ew ays a ween the military government and the opposition
over Sanjabi's arrest and the government's effort to break the
oil industry strike will shape the course of the crisis. When
the government's threat of dismissal to strikers failed to break
the oil strike this weekend, the authorities arrested 170 strike
leaders.//
//If the tougher tactics break the strike, mod-
erate issi ents may be encouraged to put some distance between
themselves and Khomeini. This would strengthen the hand of those
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//The confrontation that may develop in the next
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opponents who favor a political compromise. If the oil strike
is not broken or if Khomeini calls for armed rebellion, the
Shah and the military would have to decide how tough they
prepared to be in their effort to preserve the monarchy.
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BRAZIL: Short-Term Prospects
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25X1 //We expect the administration of President
Joao Baptista Figueiredo to continue the effort begun by Presi-
dent Geisel to open the political system to greater civilian
participation. Figueiredo could even be the last strictly mili-
tary president.//
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//This "liberalization" process, though, will
e su sect to setbacks, and its ultimate success is by no means
guaranteed. There are still, for example, important military
officers who oppose liberalization; moreover, civilian pressures
for further progress could eventually unnerve either Figueiredo
or the military establishment as a whole and lead to a conserva-
tive backlash.//
//We expect the new government to continue the
po icy o export-led economic growth that has characterized
recent years, and there could be new emphasis on developing
Brazil's agricultural sector. The Brazilians will remain highly
dependent on and receptive to foreign investment.//
//We also expect the new administration to
scale down--but by no means abandon--Brazil's massive nuclear
development program, whose centerpiece is the 1975 deal with
west Germany. Financial problems will probably force the Bra-
zilians to cut back, but their determination to master .nuclear
technology is in no way diminished.//
//Finally, we believe Figueiredo has an open
min wi regard to relations with the US and clearly hopes
.that recent tensions between the countries over nuclear nonpro-
liferation and human rights can be overcome. Nonetheless, the
new governing team will be very wary of US intentions in these
areas, which will continue to be seen in Br si otential
stumbling blacks.
PORTUGAL: Political Negotiations
Portuguese Prime Minister - designate Mota Pinto seems
to be in no hurrz~ to form a netu government. He plans to start
final talks with the parties todaz~, but even if an agreement is
reached on cabinet composition, the cabinet is unlikely to take
office until President Eanes returns from a five-daze trip in
Western Europe on Fridar~.
Mota Finto has hinted that he is planning a cabinet of
~n epen ents, a logical move after the Social Democrats refused
to participate in a government and the Socialists showed no en-
thusiasm for providing high-level members. He may also believe
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that it will be easier to implement difficult economic reforms
if the parties are not closely identified with the government
as the national election nears.
The Prime Minister - designate expressed confidence
t a is government would stay in office until the regular elec-
tion in 1980, and the Social Democrats say they will never ren-
der the new government "unviable." The parties' lack of invol-
vement could nevertheless make easier a decision to vote against
the government in the coming months.
On Saturday, Communist-dominated unions in Lisbon held
a massive peaceful demonstration to protest the high cost of
living and the caretaker government`s enforcement of the agra-
rian reform-law. The demonstration is unlikel to affect Mota
Pinto's planning for his new government.
UNITED EINGDOM: Labor's Chances
//The survival of British Prime Minister CaZZaghan's
mznor~ y a or government in a Parliamentary test of confidence
last u~eelc improves its chances of remaining in power through
the winter. Although the Conservatives u~iZZ continue to press
issues on which the government is most vulnerable, then will
be preoccupied for the nest few u~.eeks with regrouping because
of recent internal dissension. A greater threat to the govern-
ment's viability ~aiZZ come from potentially divisive wage ne-
gotiations zaith the trade unions and from the possibility of
an economic slowdown.//
//The Conservative and Labor Parties maintained
party discipline during the vote on the Queen's speech, so the
future of Callaghan's fragile Parliamentary support rested with
the sometimes unpredictable minor parties. The Liberals, as ex-
pected, voted with the Conservatives against the government,
but abstensions and some support from the Scottish and Welsh
Nationalists and Ulster Unionists ensured the government's sur-
vival by a scant 12 votes and forestalled a general election.//
//Callaghan's legislative package for this session
is designed to placate the minor parties and minimize contro-
versial debate that could lead to confidence votes. This tactic
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will not ensure the government's survival, but it will provide
the Conservatives with fewer opportunities to try to bring the
government down.//
/The Conservatives will continue to look for an
Issue a could lead to a loss of confidence in the government
and, because of Callaghan's precarious support in Parliament,
they may succeed. Aiming at a broader public audience, they
are likely to concentrate their attacks outside Parliament,
primarily on the government's economic policies. Party leaders
hope this will help regain the Conservative lead over Labor in
the public opinion-polls after a sharp decline in October and
after losses in two recent byelections.//
//The Conservatives also will be occupied during
coming wee s with regrouping after internal party disagreements
over pay policy and Rhodesia. Many party leaders still feel
that former Prime Minister Heath's virtual endorsement of the
government's pay policy at the Conservative Party's annual con-
ference last month has damaged party unity and undercut Tory
Napes to attract trade union support.//
//The party divisions over a policy on Rhodesia re-
cent y e more than 100 Tories--from both front and back ben-
ches--to vote against the continuation of economic sanctions
against Rhodesia in defiance of party policy to abstain on the
vote. Although the government's legislation to continue sanc-
tions was never threatened, the rebellion within Conservative
ranks, which is likely to surface again, has led party leader
Thatcher to reshuffle the shadow cabinet.//
//The strongest test for the Callaghan government
wi. come rom efforts to continue the improvement in the eco-
nomy and to enforce its controversial policy of limiting wage
increases to .an average of 5 percent. Increased inflation
or unemployment could severely weaken the government's maneu-
verability in scheduling a general election.//
//The pay policy has not yet received a major test,
ut strices by several important unions are now in progress and
more are expected. Talks between the government and the Trades
Union Congress aimed at ironing out differences over the pay
policy--even if successful--ma have ver little effect on in-
dividual unions.
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USSR: Salyut-6 Wrap-Up
The USSR established several u~orZd space records
urzng t e mission of cosmonauts Ivanehenkov and Kovalenok on
the Salyut-6 space station. The cosmonauts spent 138 days on
board, and their flight established a eurnulati.ve record of 1,029
cosmonaut days in space. Since -the launching of Salyut-6 in
September 1977, the USSR has performed the first double-docking
in hi story, the first doekircg of an unmanned cargo capsule, the
first refueling operation ~n space, and the first space flights
by non-Soviet, no.n-US astronauts.
The lifetime of Salyut-6 is unknown .but, with re-
supp y missions and cosmonaut participation in repair and re-
placement of onboard systems, the station could remain in orbit
for five years or mare. If postmission medical examinations of
the cosmonauts reveal- no serious medical problems, the Soviets
will continue to man Salyut-6;-they probably will send a new
crew early next year. One of their announced goals is to have
a crew in space continuously for six months or longer.
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Romania-Yugoslavia
Romanian President Ceausescu will visit Yugoslavia for
to s wi Yugoslav President Tito this Thursday and Friday.
This will be their first meeting in almost a year. Ceausescu is
likely to brief Tito on his talks with Soviet Foreign Minister
Gromyko, who paid a surprise visit to Bucharest in mid-October.
Other probable items on the agenda include the forthcoming War-
saw Pact summit, rumored to be planned for later this month; the
two countries' relations. with Pekin ;.and the rospects for
peace in the Middle East.
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Top Secret
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Top Secret
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