NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010068-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2006
• Sequence Number: 68
• Publication Date: November 11, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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5aturda_y 11 November 1978 CG NIDG 7$L2,~
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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Top Secret
DIA review(s) completed. ((~~g urftV I s ification
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 Approved For Rel
National Intelli ence Daily Cab1,e for Saturday, 11 November 197~r
The NID Cable is for the pur~~se o
in orm~ng
senior U o icials.
IRAN: Dim Prospect for Compromise
Page 1
AFGHANISTAN: Unrest Continues
Page 2
CHINA-CAMBODIA-VIETNAM-THAILAND
Page 3
LEBANON: Situation Report
Page 4
UNESCO:
Information Resolution
Pa~~~; 6
BRIEFS
Page 7
North Korea
Argentina-Chile
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IRAN: Dim Prospect for Compromise
The Zeader of the opposition National Front in Iran,
Karim an~abi, yesterday took an uncompromising stand against
participating in a eoaZition government, further dimming pros-
pects for a political compromise with the Shah.
Sanjabi's call far the continued use of strikes as
the opposition's. weapon against the military government may
prompt Prime Minister Azhari to order the arrest of opposition
politicians who continue to agitate against the Shah. Azhari
thus far has not tried to curb the activities of opposition
politicians in the hope they might be persuaded to join a coali-
tion government.
Sanjabi's hard line confirms that he and his follow-
~
ers are responding to the direction of extremist religious
leader Ayatollah Khomeini. Sanjabi returned to Tehran yesterday
after conferring with Khomeini, who is in exile in Paris.
The arrest of former Prime Minister Hoveyda is another
example of the Shah's determination to give the appearance of
correcting past abuses. Even so, the disgrace of one of the
Shah's former close political associates will tarnish the Shah
personally. Hoveyda was charged with corruption, but he had been
under fire primarily because of his alleged connection with the
Bohai, a sect regarded as heretical by orthodox Muslims.
Oil production increased slightly yesterday for. the
secon ay in succession. The oil industry an Friday was sched-
uled to produce about 1.7 million barrels; normal output is
about 6 million barrels per day. The gains in production are
credited to the efforts of Navy ersonnel who have been pressed
into service in the oilfields.
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The tribal rebellion in eastern Afghanistan has es-
calate reeentZz~ and has spread to Qandahar Province in the
south, but poses ZittZe threat at this time to the government.
2'he extremist Muslim Brotherhood has become more active; it
was apparentZrg responsible for several explosions in Kabul Zast
meek. So far the miZitarz~ has remained Zoz~aZ to the government,
.but a significant further spread of popular unrest could test
~.ts r.~iZZingness to support the leftist regime.
Fighting between government troops and Pathan tribes-
men iri Laghman, Paktia, and Nangarhar Provinces--all located
near Afghanistan's eastern border--broke out soon after the
coup last April. By late summer, dissidence had spread to non-
Pathans farther north. In the past two months the fighting has
escalated, as have government efforts to contain the rebellion.
Air attacks have occurred almost daily, and reprisal raids are
becoming more common.
Late last month, the unrest spread to Qandahar Prov-
nce. Americans there reported a 24-hour power outage on 31
October--apparently due to sabotage. The government .seems to
Piave the situation in hand; tanks are in evidence in the towns
and a 9:00 p.m. curfew is being strictly enforced.
Several explosions have been heard in Kabul itself,
one close to the US AID compound. The Muslim Brotherhood--a
conservative Islamic group that has declared holy war against
the "infidel, traitorous, Communist" regime--is suspected of
being responsible.
The intensified unrest poses little threat to the
central government at this time. Although the insurgents may
claim occasional successes, the military, with modern equipment--
including aircraft--and better organization and communications,
has a decided edge over almost any combination of tribal dissi-
dents. The Muslim Brotherhood appears to lack the cohesive leader-
ership and support of the armed forces to challenge the regime
seriously.
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Widespread popular discontent, however, could easily
be exp of ed by the government's domestic and foreign enemies
and would almost certainly affect the loyalty of the military--
the mainstay of any Afghan regime. Almost all the officer corps
and a significant part of the enlisted men are Pathans--the
same ethnic group as most of the rebelling tribes--and their
support ,for the regime .will be severely tested if operations
against their fellow countrymen and coreli ionists continue to
escalate.
//Senior Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-ping, in
the first authoritative Chinese comment on.the Soviet-VZetnamese
treaty of friendship and coo erat~,on has publicly described it
as "military" in nature. Teng went on to say the 25X1
treaty ~aiZZ give Vietnam a ree an " in Cambodia and that
-China will "keep a close watch on the situation." He further
stated China's reaction raiZZ be determined by the extent of
Vietnam's "aggression" and felt that Chinese and other South-
east Asian leaders should "consult regularly" on the situation.//
//The Chinese leader, during his visit to
- ember, took the opportunity to warn that
Vietnam and the USSR Piave ambitions in the region beyond Cam-
bodia and that the treaty serves Soviet strategy to dominate
Asia and the Pacific. In discussions in Thailand, Teng asserted
that the USSR is reviving its interest in what it used to call.
the "Asian collective security system"--a concept aimed at iso-
lating China--and he reminded his host of .Thailand's past oppo-
sition to this system.//
//Teng also urged .that the Thais strengthen
relations and increase the level of contacts with Cambodia be-
cause.the coming Vietnamese offensive will not be small-scale
and "Cambodia needs help."//
//Yesterday, as Teng toured Malaysia, Peking
issued a stern warning to Hanoi concerning the China-Vietnam
border. An authoritative editorial in Peoples Daily said China
"will never allow recurrence" of an incident like the one on
1 November in which six Chinese were killed. Peking described
the situation as "intolerable" and cautioned that "the Va_??~nam.-~~
ese authorities must not turn a deaf ear to Chinas w~~?nin~..!/
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h'le Ten was in Thailand, party Vice
W
i g
I I //
Chairman Wang Tung-hing led the highest ranking Chinese delega-
tion yet to visit Phnom Penh. The composition of Wang's delega-
tion and reports of his activities in Cambodia were designed
to send a message of continuing political and economic support
for the Phnom Penh regime while playing down military links,
and at the same time bolster Teng Hsiao-pings efforts to por-
tray Cambodia and China as victims of Vietnamese aggression and
"SoJiet hegemony."//
ve no indication of what specific is-
h
a
I I//We
sues were discussed in talks between the Chinese and Cambodians,
but there is one sign that they did not go entirely smoothly.
Although the atmosphere was described as one of "extreme cor-
diality," Phnom Penh quoted Wang as saying the talks were
"frank"--a term normally used by Communist media to indicate
disagreement. Peking, in its version of Wang's remarks, did
not use this term.//
//Peking appears to be positioning itself to
maintain maneuvera ility in the Vietnam-Cambodia dispute. On
the one hand, through public statements, the Chinese
appear to be trying to exploit Asian reactions to the Soviet-
Vietnamese alliance in order to build support for Cambodia and
thus to impose political limits on the extent of Vietnam's ef-
forts against Cambodia in the coming months.//
On the other hand, Chinese officials have
~ ~ //
been playing down the possibility of sending troops to Cambodia.
They have nevertheless suggested there may be more "incidents"
along the China-Vietnam border. Peking, while stopping short
of an irrevocable commitment to defend the Phnom Penh regime,
is attem tin to maintain its credibility as Cambodia's ally.
LEBANON: Situation Report
Th cease-~zre Zn Beirut is holding despite an out-
e ~
break of artillery fire during this week. RivaZrz~ among Maro-
nite factions in northern Lebanon and recent attacks aimed at
r~overnment officials are threatening the truce.
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The cease-fire was marred Wednesday night by exchanges
of arts lery and mortar fire between Maronite militiamen and
Syrian units in one of the mast serious breaches of the month-
old truce. The city was relatively calm Thursday and early Fri-
day, and both sides appear to want the cease-fire to hold.
In northern Lebanon, tension has increased as a re-
sult of incidents allegedly caused by the Syrians and their
allies, the followers of former President Sulayman Franjiyah.
The Phalangists say Franjiyah's militia attacked a Phalangist-
controlled village on Wednesday, killing two and kidnaping an-
other. Earlier this week the Phalangists accused the Syrians
of sending a patrol into a Phalangist district, despite an
agreement not to do so.
//The Israelis also are concerned that the Syrians
may be planning new violence in the north, perhaps in conjunc-
tlon Wlth a move acrainst the Pha 1 aricrP by Fran-i i vah aiir~nnri-r~rc _
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//The Israelis also report that the Syrians are
preparing o build a new road in northern Lebanon capable of 25X1
handling heavy vehicles. The road would shorten the distance
between Syria and northern Lebanon and allow the S ri n
b ass routes under Christian control.//
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The outcome of the 20th General Conference of the
UN EdueatzonaZ, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
in Paris has been jeopardized by the introduction of a draft
resolution calling for an action plan to implement "The Neu
World Information Order." The draft Baas introduced on Thursday
by Tunisian Information Minister Masmoudi, the leading spokesman
on communications issues for the nonaligned movement.
Some version of the resolution, which is likely to
get strong support from most members of the nonaligned group,
stands a good chance of being adopted despite HTestern efforts
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 the imbalance between the information and communication agencies
of the developing nations and those of the industrialized world.
It gives particular attention to the efforts of the nonaligned
countries to free their mass media from the influence of the
developed nations' news agencies. The draft also calls for the
creation of an open-ended international fund and for a UNESCO-
sponsored group of communications experts to implement "The New
World Information Order."
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to prevent its consideration at the conference. Adoption of the
resolution raises the prospect of a major confrontation that
could result in a reduction of Western financial support to
UNESCO.
The draft addresses the ostensible need to correct
The document specifies that another group of experts
,
be formed to prepare papers for the World Administrative Radio
Conference. The conference, which will take place. next Septem-
ber, will reallocate international radio frequencies fox' the
first time in 20 years. The nonaligned countries have met pre-
viously to form a coordinated position for the conference, where
they hope to obtain a larger share of the radio frequencies
that they believe are dominated by the developed world.
Masmoudi's introduction of the resolution-comes duxing
intensive efforts by the Western nations to amend a contentious
draft declaration on mass media and threatens the. prospects-for
a U5 initiative to create a consultative group to address the
communications needs of the developing countries. Masmoudi said
that the nonaligned group's acceptance of the Western version
of the mass media declaration will depend on Western acquies-
cence to his draft. Regardless of the outcome in Paris, the
topic of "The New World Information Order" will probably arise
at the UN General Assembly later this year.
orth Korea has officially protested the newly estab-
lished South Korean - US combined forces command in Seoul. Ac-
cording to a statement by a Foreign Ministry spokesman, the
joint command formed on 7 November is intended to ex~ ~.~ 7 ~ ~- ;,~r=~ w-
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preparations, and provides further evidence that the US does
not intend to withdraw its troops from South Korea. The rhetoric
is not harsh by North. Korean standards, however, and a spokes-
man's statement by the Foreign Ministry is one of Pyongyang's
lowest levels of formal protest.
~~ North Korea has consistently questioned the sincerity
of the US withdrawal plan, and it has not acknowledged that the
first increment of US ground combat forces is actually preparing
to leave South Korea. Last month an infantry battalion of the
US 2nd Division was relieved from its forward position and it
is scheduled to depart for the US mainland by mid-December.
Argentina-Chile
Argentina on Thursday announced its willingness to
resort to mediation in the Beagle Channel dispute, but at the
same time insisted that another stage of bilateral talks should
precede any arbitration by a third party. Outside help was first
raised several weeks ago by Chile, but Argentina has been re-
luctant to go along.
Spanish King Juan Carlos, who will visit Buenos Aires
in ate November, appears to be a possible choice as mediator,
althou h Chile clearl would refer to take the issue to The
Hague.
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Top Secret
(Security Classification)
A
ii
R
Top Secret
(Security ~I~~s~i?lEi ~a~oFnpr Release 2007/03/07 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010068-4