NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010066-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2005
• Sequence Number: 66
• Publication Date: November 9, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Thursday 9 November 1978 CG NIDC 78/262
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, 9 November 1978.
The NID Cable is or a purpose or i-nzormay
senior UT-officials.
IRAN: Political Situation Report Page 1
USSR-IRAN: Political Relationship Page 2
ARGENTINA: Government in Disarray Page 3
UGANDA-TANZANIA: Ending the Impasse Page .4
LIBYA: Economic Aid to LDCs Page 5
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IRAN: Political Situation Report
//Tehran continues to be calm as troops
from ou yznq garrisons in Iran patrol the streets. Iran's
military leaders are more confident of the dependabiLtty
of the Army rank and file following the adverse reaction
by the troops to the widespread destruction caused by the
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USSR-IRAN: Political Relationship
I I Neither the USSR nor any other foreign power appears
to be omentinq or encouraging the current disturbances in Iran.
The Soviets, nevertheless, are now acknowledging publicly that
the Shah's position has become precarious and are becoming some-
what more sympathetic toward the demonstrators.
The Soviets probably would not serve their interests
by becoming actively involved against the Shah. Antagonizing
the Iranian leadership would presumably threaten considerable
Soviet economic interests in Iran as well as the serviceable
political relationship that exists between Iran and the USSR.
Moscow's restraint thus far is particularly evident in the So-
viet media's careful treatment of the Shah and his opponents
as well as their infrequent replay and neutral handling of
statements by Iran's outlawed Communist Party.
I I On balance, however, the USSR's public commentary
that it has made a reassessment of the Shah's staying
power and has downgraded its appraisal of his chances of sur-
vival. Soviet media treatment of the disturbances in Iran is
not nearly so circumspect as it has been during the past year.
The weekly Literary Gazette has raised the prospect of a mili-
tary coup, and during the past week Pravda treated Iran's in-
fluential leftist National Front more favorably than usual.
Previous Soviet commentary has not tried to discriminate among
the various groups opposing the Shah.
The Soviets perceive that the removal of the Shah
would weaken Iran's ability to thwart Soviet objectives in the
Persian Gulf and Mediterranean regions. Soviet interests, for
example, would be served by Israel's increased political isola-
tion in the area as well as a possible weakening of Oman's po-
sition in any renewal of hostilities with South Yemen--two de-
velopments which could result from the Shah's loss of power.
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For these reasons, the Soviets might eventually be tempted to
assist dissidents in Iran if they perceived that the Shah was
in real danger of being overthrown. The USSR's primary concern
in such an event would be to try to make certain that the Shah
was replaced by a more leftist--rather than rightist--regime.
ARGENTINA: Government in Disarray
//Regardless of how Argentina deals with Chile in
its e or s to negotiate a settlement of the Beagle Channel
dispute, the issue has focused domestic attention on the in-
efficiency of President VideZa's system of consensus government.
Conservative military leaders, who have Zong criticized Videla's
moderate and conciliatory style, now appear to be gaining ground
at the President's expense.//
//Official embarrasment over the handling of
the Beagle C annel affair has increasingly divided the Argen-
tine Government and prevented it from deciding on its next move.
Since the bilateral commission reached an impasse on 2 November,
both nations have maintained their military forces in a high
state of readiness. While no hostile moves have occurred in the
past few days, both sides are still seriously concerned over
the possibility of an armed confrontation.
//Many senior Argentine officers see the present
system of government--in which Videla is supposed to share power
with the military -junta--as unworkable.
//The recent cabinet shuffle--in which Videla
failed to make good on his promise to appoint prominent civil-
ians to top posts--provides fresh evidence of his inability to
assert his authority.
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//At this point, the disarray in Buenos Aires is
seriously complicating the development of a politically accept-
able compromise to the Beagle Channel dispute. Even if both
governments agree to further negotiations, the long-term pects for resolution of the basic differences remain poor. I 25X1
UGANDA-TANZANIA: Ending the Impasse
Ugandan President Amin has taken a first step toward
ending t e military impasse on the Tanzanian border. He declared
to an assembly of foreign diplomats and senior Ugandan officials
in Kampala yesterday that he would withdraw his forces to the
recognized border if he were guaranteed that Tanzania would
never again invade Uganda and would prevent Ugandan exiles in
that country from engaging in subversive activities against
his regime.
I lAmin's initiative apparently was in response to the
e or s o the organization of African Unity and several in-
dividual African countries to get the contending parties to
negotiate. Amin again claimed that Uganda had been forced to
seek a secure natural boundary along the Kagera River because
Tanzania has encouraged and assisted Ugandan exiles to engage
in subversive activities in Uganda.
E Tanzanian President Nyerere apparently believes the
international community, which in the past has vilified Amin
on moral and humane grounds, supports his condemnation of the
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Ugandan President's actions and will help redress Tanzania's
grievances. Amin's conditions for withdrawal are likely to be
unacceptable to Dar es Salaam at this time, but his offer may
encourage further diplomatic efforts to end the current con-
tention.
LIBYA: Economic Aid to LDCs
//Libya is significantly increasing its economic
a2 to e' oping countries both to advance its foreign poZiti-
cal aims and to meet domestic economic needs. Libya's disburse-
ments to Third World governments and multilateral aid institu-
tions will rise to about $300 million this year from about $130
million in 1976 and just under $200 million in 1977. This in-
crease in aid will place Libya fourth among aid donors from the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.//
I //The Libyans continue to give much of their
economic assistance to revolutionary and socialist countries
with whom Tripoli feels an ideological affinity. Included in
this group are Angola, Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, South Yemen,
and Syria.//
Libya also has supplied considerable amounts of aid
to a select group of developing countries in order to expand its
political influence--sometimes at the expense of Western in-
terests--or to facilitate its economic develo ment.
//Libya's efforts to buy political influence
have requen y peen poorly conceived and therefore unsuccess-
ful. Its courtship of the "progressive" government of Ethiopia,
for example, earned it the unwanted label of Soviet surrogate
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in the Ethiopian-Somalia dispute and put the Libyans in the
awkward position of undermining fellow Muslims in Ethiopia's
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