NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010036-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2005
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: October 23, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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op Secret J.
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Monday 23 October 1978 CG NIDC 78/247
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NATIONAL. SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
1AW
Security CI ssification
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National 1liaenCe
Daily Cable for Monday, 23 October 1978
The NID Cable is for the purpose o in ormi
senior o icials.
LEBANON: Sudanese Forces Remain
CHINA: Foreign Economic Policy
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LEBANON: Sudanese Forces Remain
I Sudan's President Numayri announced over the weekend
that Su anese forces assigned to the Arab Deterrent Force in
Lebanon would remain in that country for three months.
I I Since September, Numayri has been considering with-
drawing his troops because of the financial strain of their
mission and Syrian domination of the peacekeeping force.
I I A Sudanese withdrawal would have seriously compli-
ca e e orts to implement the new security plan in Beirut.
Numayri made his decision as a result of urgings by the US
and Saudi Arabia. Saudi troops assigned to the peacekeeping
force are manning positions in Beirut that the Sudanese were
supposed to take up following the limited Syrian withdrawal
from the Christian sector of the city. 25X1
CHINA: Foreign Economic Policy
I I China is exploring various commercial arrangements
and economic cooperation projects involving Zong-term credits
and entry into joint ventures in an effort to spur the acquisi-
tion of foreign technology. Self-reliance is still proclaimed
as a fundamental national policy, but the Chinese are stretch-
ing its definition to embrace almost any economic activity that
does not openly infringe national sovereignty. These new moves
would not have been possible in the years of political turmoil
during Mao's Zast illness. Many problems nonetheless still
stand in the way of full-scale implementation of these projects.
Although most of the new openings are still in the
negotiating stage, the Chinese have reportedly agreed in prin-
ciple to accept loans for capital purchases from the Japan
Export-Import Bank and from British and West German banks.
These loans may eventually total several billion dollars.
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The Chinese have discussed barter and compensation
deals during the last few months with a number of Western firms
but have signed no contracts. Proposals have included repayment
in kind for projects in coal mining, petrochemicals, metals,
electronic components, and consumer goods.
The Chinese appear most interested in joint ventures
with Western oil companies for offshore oil development. They
are willing to permit oil companies to develop offshore oil re-
sources on a risk capital basis in return for a share of the
output.
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The Chinese have told Western firms that joint owner-
ship of manufacturing facilities will be permitted only in Hong 25X1
Kong and Macao and that these facilities will operate through
Chinese fronts. For plant located in China, only compensation 25X1
deals will be considered.
In view of the multibillion dollar capital import pro-
gram now under way, China will require large amounts of import
financing on longer terms. Ultimately, the Chinese will need
higher levels of exports to repay the credits; increased exports
through cooperation with Western firms are thus appealing to the
Chinese, as are barter and compensation deals because the import
costs are self-liquidating.
China and its partners will face problems in imple-
menting these projects on any scale. The Chinese may, for in-
stance, be unwilling to permit enough managerial and technical
control by the foreign partner to assure either adequate levels
of output or high quality. The rapidity of China's sizable shift 25X1
in trade and financial policies has given the leadership little
time to think through all the implications, and disappointments
on both sides are likely as negotiations drag on.
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