CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 10
• Content Type: REPORT

0
0
1
AAW AW AW AW 1AW AW AW Adw 'AT
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
ROUTING
TO:
NA E Aff ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPAR
E REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOM
MENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETUR
N
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
CONTROL NO. --,J
0 0
0 Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities: 0
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday 6 October 1978 CG NIDC 78/234
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
(Security Classification)
1
1
1
1
Top Secret
,JW 4 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A0309000100 00-7
AMF
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
LATE ITEM
LEBANON: Situation Report
Israel's action Last night in directing naval gunfire
into West Beirut was almost certainly intended to warn Syria of
Tel Aviv's increasing concern about Syrian bombardment of Chris-
tian areas of the Lebanese capital. The Israeli action threatens
to widen the conflict in Lebanon and will heighten Syrian suspi-
cions that Israel is bent on keeping the Lebanese fighting going.
Shelling continued in Beirut yesterday and is'steadily spreading
into the neighboring Christian Maronite heartland. Almost a week
of heavy fighting has resulted in numerous casualties and has
destroyed large portions of Christian-controlled East Beirut.
Lebanese President Sarkis is reluctant to make firm plans to
deploy the Lebanese Army in Beirut until he has consulted Syrian
officials.
The Israeli patrol boats apparently drew return fire
from Palestinian and Syrian shore batteries, but suffered no
casualties. Israeli spokesmen claimed that the naval gunfire
was directed at a Fatah installation in an effort to thwart a
planned guerrilla operation and in return for the abortive Pal-
estinian attempt to attack the Israeli port of Eilat a few days
ago.
Despite these statements, the Israeli shelling is
most likely related to the fighting in Beirut. Israel appar-
ently intended to demonstrate that it still supports the
Maronites and will not allow them to be crushed by Syria. The
Israelis probably believe they have shown restraint by using
naval gunfire instead of airstrikes.
The Israeli shelling will place pressure on the Pal-
estinians and Muslim leftists in Lebanon to join with the Syr-
ians in fighting the Maronites--thus rekindling the Lebanese
civil war. The leftists and the Palestinians have so far made
a deliberate effort to stay out of the current round of fight-
ing.
There has been no comment thus far on the Israeli at-
tack from Syrian President Assad, who is visiting Moscow, prob-
ably to obtain support for Syria's position in Lebanon. The
Syrians were unhappy with the limited response Foreign Minister
Khaddam obtained last month from the Soviets on this score. The
Israeli action undoubtedly will enable Assad to underscore the
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
tieed for a speedup in Soviet arms deliveries to Syria and for
as clear Soviet commitment to aid Syria in case of an Israeli
:Attack on Syrian territory.
Moscow Radio's first reports on the talks between
Assad and President Brezhnev yesterday indicated that both
:,ides reiterated opposition to the Camp David accords. In his
.speech last night at the dinner honoring Assad, which was given
before the Israel shelling, Brezhnev once more proclaimed the
Soviets' interest in a comprehensive settlement for the Middle
East.
We have no other indications that the Israelis are
planning further military action. Syrian military activity ap-
pears normal.
The US defense attache in Damascus o -
;er e ammuni ion trucks on their way to Beirut yester-
cay but saw no signs of Syrian preparations to send reinforce-
ments or new equipment into Lebanon.
While Syrian shelling has slowly spread north from
Beirut over the last week, little ground has changed hands thus
j=ar. The major ground action has been the militias' attempt to
i:ake the Qarantina bridge, on the main route from East Beirut
L:o the Christian heartland. After a three-day battle, the mili-
tias apparently halted attacks on the bridge yesterday afternoon.
The Maronites have threatened to shell Syrian terri-
tory if Syrian attacks on Beirut continue, but such actions
would be unlikely to cause much damage.
Major Haddad, the nominal Christian militia commander
in southern Lebanon, on Wednesday threatened to shell leftist
find UN forces in his area within 24 hours unless the killing
of Christians in Beirut ended. The Israelis will probably try
L:o restrain Haddad; they are able to influence him but cannot
s.ilways control his every move.
The Lebanese have probably suffered between 700 and
1,000 casualties this week. Syrian casualties are unknown but
probably are also heavy. Much of Beirut's Christian population
had already fled the city before this round of fighting began.
The destruction in Beirut will prevent many from returning any
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
time soon, even if a cease-fire is reached, and they may face
major problems in acquiring food and shelter in the countryside
this winter.
President Sarkis yesterday told the US Charge that
it is essential that he meet with. the Syrians before implement-
ing a plan to separate the warring forces by deploying units
of the Lebanese Army in Beirut. He believes the plan is hope-
less without prior approval from Assad. Sarkis emphasized that
the French initiative on this issue is not a new proposal but
is supportive of his own plan announced on Monday.
At a cabinet meeting Wednesday, some ministers report-
edly objected to the insertion of the Maronite-dominated Army
between the militias and the Syrians because this would antag-
onize the Muslims and might also result in clashes between the
militias and the Army. Lebanese Muslims have criticized the
proposed use of the Lebanese Army in Beirut.
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, 6 October 1978.
e NID a e is tor a purpose o intorming
senior US o icials.
IRAN: Student Violence Ahead
SWEDEN: Government Resignation
BRIEF
Page 1
Page 1
Page 4
Page 6
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
The cabinet of Egypt's new Prime Minister, Mustafa
Khalil, is drawn from the same generation and background as
other recent cabinets, despite President Sadat's promise of
a "generational change." Its composition portends no policy
changes in Egypt's approach to peace, the economy, or political
liberalization.
There are 21 new faces out of 31 ministers. Like most
o their predecessors, however, they have technical backgrounds,
are conservative and pro-Western in outlook, and are over 50
years old. In addition to the premiership, the most important
changes were in the offices of defense, finance, and housing.
Sadat has directed Khalil to assign top priority to
food production, improved public services, and reorganization
of the bureaucracy. Sadat made similar exhortations in May, the
last time Egypt's cabinet was shuffled.
Prime Minister Khalil appears to be a more able pol-
itician and administrator than his predecessor. The US Embassy
describes Khalil, an economist and engineer, as widely respected
in Egypt for his competence, moderation, and ability to analyze
problems objectively. He has been friendly toward US diplomats.
When the fall term opens in Iran tomorrow, university
campuses may be the scene of the first round of serious civil
disturbances since the Shah imposed martial law in 12 cities
a month ago. Student activists are likely to resume their effort
to fuel religious and political opposition to the Shah, the stu-
dent agitation was curtailed when classes ended last June. Uni-
versity officials foresee an academic year of serious unrest.
Fundamentalist Muslim students are likely to be in
the forefront of campus disorders, with radical student demon-
strators adding to the problems of security authorities. Dis-
turbances staged last October at Tehran University by conserva-
tive students provided the first indication that fundamentalist
Muslim enmity for the Shah's modernization programs might develop
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
into a serious problem of civil unrest. The Shah apparently
failed to recognize that the disturbances signaled the strength
of religious opposition to his rule, which had been dormant
since the mid-1960s.
University cities--Mashhad, Tabriz, Esfahan, and
Shiraz--now under martial law have been centers where religious
unrest has been a problem for security forces over the past
nine months. Dissident students may believe that the government's
commitment to political liberalization will make martial law au-
thorities reluctant to send troops on campus to quell disorders.
The Shah, however, is unlikely to let student agitation on campus
get out of hand.
Muslim student activitists, in addition to joining in
anyoff-campus demonstrations that are held in defiance of mar-
tial law, are likely to stage incidents of their own. During
the disturbances at Tehran University last fall, student agita-
tors called for a return to the orthodox Muslim practice of
segregating women on campus. To make their point, they harassed
coeds and destroyed school property.
The opening of universities is only one of several
potential flash points in the next few weeks. The 40th day com-
memoration of more than 100 demonstrators who died in Tehran
comes on 17 October, the birthday of the Shah on 26 October,
and that of the Crown Prince on the 30th. These dates could be
occasions for the expression of violent dissent against the
Shah's rule.
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
SWEDEN: Government Resignation
The three-party coalition of Prime Minister FaZZdin
resigned yesterday after the parties were unable to reach a
compromise on the future of two nuclear power reactors.
1"alldin's coalition partners will probably try to form a
minority government.
A compromise reached last weekend began to break down
when the Energy minister, a member of Falldin's Center Party,
demanded that more rigid safety conditions be imposed before
the government gives permission for starting the nuclear re-
actors. Falldin refused to support the Energy Minister but sub-
sequently demanded that his coalition partners oppose funding
for another nuclear reactor. The other coalition members, the
Liberals and Moderates, refused to go along with Falldin.
The Moderates and Liberals now probably will try to
form a minority government. They will need the tacit support of
the Center Party or possibly the opposition Social Democrats.
The non-Socialist parties, which came to power in 1976 after
44 years of Social Democratic rule, are likely initially to try
to govern without Social Democratic support.
Olof Palme's Social Democrats have shown increasing
strength in opinion polls this year and would probably be
returned to power in an early election. Sweden, however, tra-
ditionally does not call early elections. The next scheduled
election will be in September 1979.
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
 Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
Former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's decision to
seek election to a vacant parliamentary seat on 5 November is
further evidence of her intention to remain a key national po-
litical figure, most probably with aspirations eventually to
replace Prime Minister Desai.
Gandhi will contest a seat in the southern state of
Karnataka--one of the two states controlled by her branch of
the divided Congress Party. In her campaign, Gandhi will try
to capitalize on the ruling Janata Party's faltering image and
the absence of significant accomplishments during its 18 months
in office.
Despite her continued popularity at the grass-roots
level, Gandhi's political future could be adversely affected
by the outcome of the official investigation of alleged illegal-
ities during her administration. Her decision to run again for
office probably will heighten pressure on Desai from his col-
leagues to hasten the legal process, which has been under way
for more than a year and could result in Gandhi's disenfranchise-
ment or other restrictions on her activities.
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
 AV A Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30900010010-7
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
0
0
Ft
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP79TOO975AO30900010010-7
~,