CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010102-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 102
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret 219
(Security Classification) 25X1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Friday 29 September 1978 CG NIDC 7.8/228
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
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29 September 1978.
The NID Cable is for the purpose ot intorming
senior US officials.
SOUTH AFRICA: New Prime Minister
Page 1
LEBANON: More Fighting in Beirut
Page 2
PALESTINIANS: Terrorism Page 3
IRAN: Oil Workers' Strike
Page 5
SINGAPORE:
Trade and Development Page 6
BRIEFS
Page 8
France
South Korea
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SOUTH AFRICA: New Prime Minister
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Pieter Willem
Botha, South Africa is likely to rely more on national self-
sufficiency than on international cooperation. Botha, a tough
professional Afrikaner politician, is dedicated to the princi-
ples of the National Party that he helped build and for which
he has worked for 43 years. It is unlikely that he will radically
change any existing government policies, at least in the near
future.
As Minister of Defense for the past 12 years, the
62-year-old Botha built South Africa's strong and efficient de-
fense force and developed the country's extensive military pre-
paredness policy. He is the "hawk" in the government who ordered
the South African military incursion into Angola in 1975 and
the recent retaliatory raids against bases of the South-West
Africa People's Organization in Angola and Zambia.
As the senior cabinet minister, he pushed through the
decision earlier this month to break off negotiations with the
UN for a settlement on Namibian independence, a position he is
unlikely to reverse. Botha intends to retain the Defense port-
folio. .
Botha usually presents the image of a man in control
of his emotions, but in times of stress he can lose control and
act impulsively.
In international relations, he can be expected to
react sharply to what he considers foreign interference in South
African affairs. His basic foreign policy will probably be
little different from that of his predecessor, though perhaps
more hard line. Botha is strongly anti-Communist, but in public
he is as prone to attack the West as he is to blast Communism.
He feels he was let down by the US when it refused to support
the foray into Angola.
The Prime Minister began working for the National
Party in 1935 as a paid political organizer and has served in
Parliament since 1948, when the Nationalists first came to
political power. His views on domestic politics appear similar
to those of former Prime Minister John Vorster, soon to be the
State President, and he will doubtless continue the present
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policy of "separate development" of blacks and whites. He will
also keep, and perhaps even tighten, the present internal se-
curity laws.
Botha, however, has been somewhat more flexible than
many of his fellow Afrikaners, in some aspects of racial policy.
He was a central figure in two South African initiatives that
have broken with the tradition of apartheid--the proposed con-
stitution aimed at providing limited political rights to Coloreds
and Asians, but not to blacks, and the new South African Defense
Force policy to end racial discrimination in the armed forces.
LEBANON: More Fighting in Beirut
Christian Maronite Leader Pierre JumayyiZ yesterday
ordered his forces to cease fire after a day of heavy fight-
ing between the Maronite militiamen and Syrian forces in Bei-
rut. Clashes have been occurring since Lebanese President Sarkis
indicated Last Friday that he intended to ask for a renewal
of the Syrian-dominated Arab Deterrent Force's mandate.
The latest round of heavy fighting began Wednesday
a ernoon with exchanges of mortar and machinegun fire in the
Christian areas of East Beirut. During the night the Syrians
used rockets, tanks, and heavy artillery to shell the Christian
districts. Jumayyi.l's Phalange Party yesterday reported its
headquarters was subjected to concentrated shelling.
The militiamen responded to the Syrian shelling with
artillery fire., some of which.reportedly hit a key Syrian mili-
tary position. The militias were probably also responsible for
artillery rounds fired on and near the port in West Beirut. This
action may have been a warning to Muslims in West Beirut that
the Maronites can shell their districts at will.
Jumayyil, after meeting with
noon, ordered his forces to cease fire,
[the Phalange wou no
see to provoke or esca a . A Phalange leader tol
the US Embassy that it would take two or three days to bring
the fighting under control.
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s eculates the Maronites initiated the
b
assy e
The Em
latest fighting as a protest against Sarkis' apparent intention
ent force's mandate. Jumayyil and other
d
t
err
e
to renew the
Maronites have recently softened somewhat their previous un-
qualified opposition to renewal, but they are demanding major
revisions, in the terms of the mandate and they probably are in
no hurry to relieve pressure on the Syrians. Syrian commanders
in Beirut turn to heavy shelling as a means of intimidating the
Maronite militias without risking Syrian casualties in house-
to-house fighting.
meanwhile, returned to Damas-
sad
ident As
,
.
Syrian Pres
cus yesterday from Kuwait. We cannot confirm press reports that
he cut short his talks in Kuwait because of the situation in 25X1
Beirut. We believe Assad probably does not want the current
fighting to escalate seriously but will order his forces to re-
taliate for militia provocations. 25X1
PALESTINIANS: Terrorism
//Palestinian extremists may express their
opposition to the Camp David accords by attempting to increase
terrorist operations. The more moderate Palestinian groups do
not appear ready to mount international terrorist acts, although
they can be expected to conduct further attacks in Israel and
the occupied territories.//
dical Palestinian leaders such as George
R
a
L //
Habbash., leader o the Popular Front for the Liberation of Pal-
ets abroad
k US tar
g
estine, have publicly threatened to attac
because of Washington's role in arranging the Egyptian-Israeli
agreements.
//Even leaders of the more moderate Fatah
have made public threats of action against US targets. Fatah,
however, probably made these threats to play to the Palestin-
ians, and Fatah leaders do not appear ready to foreclose com-
pletely the possibility of future participation in the peace
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//Fatah, however, can be expected to under-
take more ac s o terrorism in Israel and the occupied terri-
tories to express its dissatisfaction with the Palestinian as-
Deets of t-l;c Omm ?- 4 A
a large number of incidents in Israel
Burin the past two months.
Terrorists have staged
and on the West Bank
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IRAN: Oil Workers' Strike
A series of wildcat strikes over the past several
months in Iran has now hit the important petroleum industry.
The walkout, which started on Saturday, now includes some 90
percent of local employees at several major oil production fa-
cilities and at the major Khark Island export terminal. Although
the strike thus far has had Little impact on production or ex-
ports, new drilling and the use of workover rigs have been sus-
pended as have normal maintenance activities. The lack of main-
tenance increases the risk of serious accidents.
The fields known to have been struck include Ahvaz,
Agha Jari, and Gachsaran, which supply almost half of Iran's
current production. Export facilities at Khark Island handle
some 46 million barrels per day, or more than 90 percent of
Iran's crude oil exports.
Workers have presented a long list of salary and fringe
benefit demands to the management of the consortium of interna-
tional oil companies that is responsible for production at the
major onshore oilfields. The Iranian Ministry of Labor and the
state-owned National Iranian Oil Company--which operates the
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distribution, refining, and export facilities--have taken the
lead in negotiating for management. They reportedly have taken
the line that everything is negotiable, but only after the il-
legal strike is terminated.
Both the Shah and officials of the national oil com-
pany are said to be nervous about the strike, but they have
thus far been unwilling to take any strong actions. Vague threats
by the government have brought few workers back to work.
For the near future, consortium management and staff
personnel can keep production and exports going at a near-normal
pace but, should the strike drag on for a long time, the Shah
may have to resort to force to get the strikers back to work.
The costs to Iran of an interruption of the flow of oil could
be enormous; revenue from oil sales makes up about 97 percent
of Iran's export earnings.
SINGAPORE: Trade and Development
//Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew
arrives on an unofficial visit to the US today to discuss
international trade, finance, and foreign investment matters
with private business groups and US officials. He also in-
tends to discuss the US role in Southeast Asia and to exchange
views on relations with Asian Communist countries with US of-
ficials.//
Lee has already met with leading government and EC
officials in Brussels and Paris on economic matters, partic-
ularly growing trade protectionism in Western Europe that
could threaten Singapore's export-oriented manufacturing in-
dustries. While in Western Europe, he also tried to gain a
feel for EC positions on a variety of economic issues that
will be discussed in November at the ministerial meeting in
Brussels of the EC and the Association of Southeast Asian Na-
tions.
Singapore is apparently well on its way to another
excellent economic performance this year. During the first
half of 1978, real gross domestic product grew at an 8.1-
percent annual rate, outpacing most other economies in South-
east Asia.
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The, twin pillars of Singapore's economy, manufactur-
ing and services, are continuing to perform well this year.
After three years in the doldrums, Singapore's petroleum re-
fining industry is on the upswing as demand has increased in
its major markets. As the world's third largest refining
center, Singapore was hard hit by the loss of the Vietnam market
and the 1974-75 recession. Oil rig suppliers and oil equipment
service operations are also benefiting from the strong upturn
in regional oil exploration and drilling.
Foreign investment will show continuing gains this
year, especially in high-technology industries. The US is
still the leading foreign investor in Singapore, although
Japanese investment has been rising rapidly and could surpass
the US in the early 1980s.
Singapore's traditional trade deficit widened sub-
stantially in the first half of 1978, largely because of a
slowdown in export growth. Even so, the government should not
experience any balance-of-payments difficulties because of
continuing high levels of long-term capital inflows and a
comfortable $4.1 billion foreign exchange cushion.
The only clouds in an otherwise bright picture are
the tight labor market and the slowdown in export growth.
Shortages of skilled labor are eroding Singapore's competitive
advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing industries, partic-
ularly textiles and other consumer products. Export growth is
running at half the 1977 rate, a reflection both of an increase
in protectionism in West European markets and of an effort by
neighboring Malaysia and Indonesia to eliminate Singapore's
traditional role as a trading center for their primary commodi-
ties.
Lee is confident that Singapore will continue its
recent strong economic performance over the next several
years. His optimism hinges,on the government successfully
implementing its longstanding policy of encouraging a shift
from labor-intensive to capital-intensive manufactured exports.
In his discussions with US officials, Lee will ex-
press hi deep suspicion of Communist intentions in Southeast
Asia and will seek assurances of continued US interest in the
area.
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BRIEFS
//France has decided to implement plans to build
its sixth ballistic missile submarine, the first of a new class
to be armed with multiple-warhead missiles. The submarine is
scheduled for completion in the mid-1980s.//
//President Giscard this week approved the start
of construction next year; defense. studies have showed that the
new submarine can be financed without seriously affecting other
military programs. The French decided in principle to build a
sixth. strategic-missile submarine two years ago, but a final
determination on when to begin was delayed by unresolved funding
and technical problems.//
//The submarine will carry 16 of France's new M-4
missiles, each of which. can be armed with three to seven 150-
kiloton warheads. The warheads are designed for release in a
cluster and apparently will not be independently targetable,
although the French have studied the possibility of using MIRVs.
The M-4 will have a range of 4,000 to 5.000 kilometers. F
South Korea has removed import restrictions on an
additional 299 commodities and will lower its average tariff
rates from 36 percent to 25 percent on 1 January. These measures
follow the recent removal of curbs on nearly 200 commodities.
President Pak's government hopes the freer flow of
imports will reduce inflation, now running at a 15-percent
annual rate, and help South Korea in international trade ne-
gotiations. According to government estimates, the new measures
will generate an additional $200 million in imports this year
and $300 million in the first quarter of 1979.
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