NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010084-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2005
• Sequence Number: 84
• Publication Date: September 19, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Tuesday 19 September 1978 CG NIDC 7819
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 19 September 1
The NID Cable is for the purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
NICARAGUA: Situation Report Page 1
SPAIN: Draft Constitution Page 1
TURKEY: Feyzioglu Resigns Page 3
LAW OF THE SEA: Differences Page 4
BRIEFS: Page 5
I
international
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NICARAGUA: Situation Report
Government forces continue steadily to regain control
o the military situation in Nicaragua. The Sandinista guerril-
Zas probably retain the capability, however, to Zaunch new
strikes in the outlying provinces in the weeks to come.
The National Guard has secured Chi
d
nan
ega, leaving
Esteli as the only city where guerrillas are holding out. There
were no new guerrilla strikes yesterday.
The cleanup operation, however, has evidently driven
otf more guerrillas than it has eliminated, and growing popular
antipathy toward President Somoza and his regime has boosted
Sandinista recruitment. The guerrillas should thus be able to
regroup for another offensive once they have replenished their
munitions.
I I Managua remains calm; daylight activity and traffic
are picking up. The national work stoppage continues to be
about 80 percent effective, but support for it may be starting
to erode.
The Organization of America
S
n
tates voted 23 to 1 yes-
terday to convene a ministerial-level meeting of consultation
on Thursday. In addition, an eight-member factfinding team has
arrived in Costa Rica to investi ate the 112,1111, ed Nicaraguan
incursion last week.
SPAIN: Draft Constitution
I I When the draft Spanish constitution comes before the
u Senate, possibly this week., the most controversial item
will be an amendment guaranteeing the self-governing rights of
the Basque region. Government attempts to block the amendment
in committee failed by a narrow margin, and the vote in the.
Senate promises to be close. If the amendment is defeated or
watered down, a renewed cycle of violence in the Basque region
seems likely.
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The Senate's constitutional committee approved the
amen ment late last week by 13 votes to 12. Basques, Catalans,
and Socialists received unexpected support from independents
and royally appointed senators--who usually vote with the gov-
ernment--to defeat the ruling Union of the Democratic Center.
I IThe amendment, which the lower house rejected earlier
this summer, implicitly recognizes that the historic privileges
of the Basque provinces transcend the constitution. These "his-
toric rights"--which are not specifically spelled out--are to
be "updated" by an accord between Madrid and the Basque regional
government.
nascent autonomous government of the Basque region to defy
Madrid by, for example, controlling its own revenues, allowing
Basques to refuse to serve in the Spanish armed forces, or
claiming the right--enjoyed briefly during the Civil War--of
minting its own money.
If the amendment survives the coming Senate vote and
the subsequent final vote in both. houses, it could permit the
I IThe battle on the Senate floor is likely to be in-
tense. e tists, regionalists, and independents can muster
only 99 out of the Senate's 248 votes. If the ruling Democratic
Center, which. controls 106 seats, maintains its opposition, it
would presumably be joined by the six royally appointed senators
who belong to the ruling party and by the two senators of the
rightist Popular Alliance.
The balance of power would then lie with the other
35 senators appointed by the King. Although they are a mixed
bag, most are conservative and probably susceptible to military
concerns that the Basques will gain too much autonomy from
Madrid.
25X1 The amendment's defeat would probably provoke re-
newed street violence in the Basque country. Unless much of its
flavor is retained in the draft constitution submitted to refer-
endum, Basques would almost certainly boycott the referendum
or oppose the constitution outright.
25X1 I I On the other hand, the Basque amendment strikes deep
into e heart of military sensitivities. Military distrust of
Prime Minister Suarez has been growing since he legalized the
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Communist Party last year, and has been fanned by the govern-
ment's inability to curtail terrorist violence. Should the gov-
ernment also prove incapable of blocking such controversial
legislation, the armed forces would probably increase pressure
on King Juan Carlos to appoint a government more attuned to
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TURKEY: Feyzioglu Resigns
I I Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Turhan FeyziogZu
res2gne yesterday, following a decision by his small Repub-
lican Reliance Party to withdraw from the government. The res-
ignation will noc bring down Prime Minister Ecevit, whose gov-
ernment retains a narrow parliamentary majority. Feyzioglu,
however, is one of Turkey's most respected politicians, and
his action is a serious psychological blow to the Prime Minis-
ter.
Feyzioglu, who is the head of his party, said he left
the coalition because the government has been unable to quell
violence or solve the country's economic problems. He has
long advocated a grand coalition between Ecevit's Republican
People's Party and the Justice Party of former Prime Minister
Suleyman Demi.rel.
The Reliance Party's only other member of the National
Assembly, Minister of State Salih Yildiz, resigned from the
party following Feyzioglu's announcement and will remain in the
government. The coalition thus will retain 230 of the 450 seats
in the Assembly.
Feyzioglu's move came on the eve of a special Assembly
session. ITh.e opposition will try to exploit his action to shake
loose other coalition members. There is no indication at present
that any members of Ecevit's party or any of the 11 independents
in his government will follow Feyzioglu's lead. Over the longer
run, however, Feyzio u's resignation could set the stage for
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LAW OF THE SEA: Differences
The Law of the Sea Conference made tentative progress
2n some areas during the four-week session in New York that
but the crucial deep-seabed mining issue re-
d on Frida
d
y,
e
en
mains unresolved. Pending US legislation and possible similar
steps by other developed nations to provide for unilateral mining
of seabed minerals in the absence of a treaty were condemned by
developing nations as prejudicial to agreement on a comprehen-
sive oceans treaty. The participants agreed to meet for six
weeks in Geneva next spring, and perhaps again in the summer.
There was pressure from many Third World countries to complete
negotiations in 1979 or abandon the effort.
The consensus achieved in previous Law of the Sea
essions on vital navigational rights was sustained in New York,
s
and tentative improvements were made in articles dealing with
marine pollution, scientific research, and the protection of
whales and other marine mammals. Important work was also under-
taken by the drafting committee toward harmonizing references
and terminology in the six-language negotiating texts of the
conference.
In an effort to move forward in such difficult areas
seabed mining issue as access rights, financial arrange-
f th
e
o
ments, and composition and powers of the projected International
Seabed Authority, the New York session largely avoided going
back over still-controversial texts proposed at the meeting last
spring in Geneva. Instead, the discussions turned to other as-
pects of these subjects, but no overall acceptable solutions
seem to be emerging as yet.
Some developing nations have no strong interest in
the ou come of the Law of the Sea Conference and view it as
merely a skirmish in the North-South struggle. These countries
have begun to lay the groundwork for blaming the US for any
collapse of the negotiations.
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//The preparatory meeting of the UN Conference on
Prohibitions or Restrictions of Use of Certain Conventional
Weapons concluded its first session in Geneva last week after
making little progress on either procedural or substantive mat-
ters. The conference, which was called for in a General Assembly
resolution last year, is to consider limitations on weapons
deemed to be excessively injurious or to have indiscriminate
effects.//
conference next September. Most Western countries and Warsaw
Pact members favor decisionmaking by consensus. The African
group, however, proposed allowing approval of decisions by two-
thirds majority vote. The Asian and Latin American countries
are divided on the issue, which was deferred to the next pre-
paratory meeting in March and April.//
//The most contentious issue at the three-week
session was the method to be used for reaching decisions at the
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25X1 //In a general debate on substantive issues,
Sweden, Mexico, and Yugoslavia were the strongest proponents
of broad prohibitions. The principal weapons covered by proposals
made at the meeting are incendiaries, small-caliber projectiles,
fragmentation devices, and fuel-air explosives. Several major
military powers, including the US, have one or more of these
weapons in their arsenals.
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